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Tytuł:
The confidence-frequency effect: A heuristic process explanation
Autorzy:
Fleisig, Dida
Zakay, Dan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/430126.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
confidence
confidence-frequency effect
intuition
introspection
local confidence
global confidence
Opis:
People’s feelings of confidence in the correctness of their knowledge while answering a knowledge test can be inferred in two ways: either by averaging the values of specific confidence values assigned to each item in a test (local confidence) or by asking after the termination of the test for an evaluation of the number of correct answers regarding the entire test (global confidence). Surprisingly, when local and global confidence values of the same test are compared, global confidence tends to be significantly lower than local confidence (the confidence frequency effect). In the present study a heuristic process explanation for the effect is presented and its validity is empirically tested. The global confidence heuristic (GCH) process is based on the ability of participants to recall, after a test was completed, the frequencies of specific confidence values which were assigned to the test’s items. Participants build their global confidence by adding about half the number of their guessed answers, to the number of questions with sure answers. The proposed GCH process was supported quantitatively. A content analysis on retrospective explanations provided by participants indicated that this process was feasible. Further research is needed in order to fully explore the power of the explanation suggested here for the confidence-frequency effect.
Źródło:
Polish Psychological Bulletin; 2014, 45, 1; 36-42
0079-2993
Pojawia się w:
Polish Psychological Bulletin
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Confidence and Self-Confidence: Perceived and Real
Autorzy:
Pearson, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907980.pdf
Data publikacji:
2002
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Oficyna Wydawnicza
Tematy:
informatyka
quantitative sociodynamics
confidence
self-confidence
Opis:
The problem of modelling the dynamics of confidence levels between two individuals is investigated. A model, based on a master equation approach, is developed and presented. An important feature of the model is that self-confidence is modelled along with its interaction with confidence towards others. Simulation results are presented.
Źródło:
International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science; 2002, 12, 2; 277-283
1641-876X
2083-8492
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Comparison of confidence intervals for fraction in finite populations
Autorzy:
Zieliński, Wojciech
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453824.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
confidence interval
approximate confidence
interval
fraction
finite population
Opis:
Consider a finite population. Let qÎ(0,1) denotes the fraction of units with a given property. The problem is in interval estimation of q on the basis of a sample drawn due to the simple random sampling without replacement. In the paper three confidence intervals are compared: exact based on hypergeometric distribution and two other based on approximations to hypergeometric distribution: Binomial and Normal. It appeared that Binomial based confidence interval is too conservative while the Normal based one does not keep the prescribed confidence level.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2011, 12, 1; 177-182
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Epistemic Words on the Confidence Scale
Autorzy:
Byalyk, Vasyl Dmytrovych
Nizhnik, Liudmyla Ivanivna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2231494.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-10-06
Wydawca:
Komisja Nauk Filologicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Oddział we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
epistemic words
modal strength
level of confidence
confidence scale
component analysis
Opis:
The article examines a group of 107 epistemic words in order to determine their integral and differential semes and place them on the confidence scale. The relevance of the study is conditioned by the interest in studying the stance of a speaker’s utterance. The article analyses the notion of epistemic words, their linguistic and non-linguistic properties. As a result of definition and semantic analyses of epistemic words, epistemic words with high, medium and low modal strength were singled out. Such a categorization is possible, because epistemic words have the same integral semes but various differential semes. Epistemic words have a scalar nature and the level of their modal strength reflects the speaker’s commitment to the utterance that ranges from confidence to uncertainty.
Źródło:
Academic Journal of Modern Philology; 2022, 15; 107-115
2299-7164
2353-3218
Pojawia się w:
Academic Journal of Modern Philology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A new confidence interval for the odds ratio
Autorzy:
Zielińska-Kolasińska, Zofia
Zieliński, Wojciech
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/14785942.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023-03-15
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
confidence interval
odds ratio
Opis:
We consider the problem of interval estimation of the odds ratio. An asymptotic confidence interval is widely applied in economics, medicine, sociology, etc. Unfortunately, this confidence interval has a poor coverage probability, significantly smaller than the nominal confidence level. In this paper, a new confidence interval is proposed. Its construction requires only information on the sizes of samples and the sample odds ratio. The coverage probability of the proposed confidence interval is at least the nominal confidence level.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2023, 24, 2; 113-128
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Confidence Interval for a Normal Mean in the Case of Correlated Observations
Autorzy:
Bieńkiewicz, Małgorzata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/747523.pdf
Data publikacji:
1985
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Matematyczne
Tematy:
Tolerance and confidence regions
Opis:
.
The interclass correlation which may occur in the normal sample influences the confidence level of the interval estimation relatively to the sample size. The robustness function is evaluated and the modified confidence intervals are proposed to guarantee robustness of the assumed level of confidence.
Źródło:
Mathematica Applicanda; 1985, 13, 26
1730-2668
2299-4009
Pojawia się w:
Mathematica Applicanda
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The quantile estimation of the maxima of sea levels
Autorzy:
Dudziński, Marcin
Furmańczyk, Konrad
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453826.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
quantile estimation
frequentistic confidence interval
Bayesian confidence interval
peaks over threshold (POT)"
Opis:
The hydrological modeling has become an intensively studied subject in recent years. One of the most significant problems concerning this issue is to provide the mathematical and statistical tools, which allow to forecast extreme hydrological events, such as severe sea or river floodings. The extreme events on water have huge social and economic impact on the affected areas. Due to these reasons, each country has to protect itself against the flood danger, and consequently, the designing of reliable flood defences is of great importance to the safety of the region. For example, the sea dikes along the Dutch coastline are designed to withstand floods, which may occur once every 10 000 years. It means that the height of the dike is determined in such a way that the probability of the event that there is a flood in a given year equals 10-4. The computation of such the height level requires the estimation of the corresponding quantiles of the distributions of certain maxima of sea levels. In our paper, we present the procedures, which lead to the estimation of such the quantiles. We are mainly concerned with the interval estimation; in this context, we present the frequentistic and Bayesian approaches in constructing the desired confidence intervals.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2011, 12, 1; 37-52
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Ocena konsekwencji kryzysu pandemicznego COVID-19 w sektorze polskich przedsiębiorstw
Assessment of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in the enterprise sector in Poland
Autorzy:
Janecki, Jarosław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2194771.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Kancelaria Sejmu. Biuro Analiz Sejmowych
Tematy:
confidence index
COVID-19
uncertainty
Opis:
The aim of the study is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the situation of enterprises in Poland. For this purpose, the results of the CSO surveys were used (the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic situation), conducted from April 2020 to December 2021. The results of the research indicate a clear differentiation of the situation among enterprises in the analysed period. The problems caused by the pandemic were particularly pronounced among service companies in the accommodation and catering sector, retailers in the textile, clothing and footwear sector, and in the specialist construction sector companies. Moreover, in most cases, within a given problem caused by the pandemic, it was the smaller enterprises that indicated the existence of threats more often.
Źródło:
Studia BAS; 2022, 1(69); 49-68
2080-2404
2082-0658
Pojawia się w:
Studia BAS
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Population Mean in the Case of Asymmetric Distributions of Random Variables
Bootstrapowa estymacja przedziałowa wartości oczekiwanej asymetrycznych rozkładów zmiennych losowych
Autorzy:
Baszczyńska, Aleksandra
Pekasiewicz, Dorota
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907046.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
bootstrap
confidence interval
asymmetric population
Opis:
W pracy przedstawiono wybrane metody bootstrapowe estymacji przedziałowej wartości oczekiwanej populacji o rozkładzie asymetrycznym. Rozważano standardową metodę bootstrapowa, metodę percentyli oraz metodę t-bootstrapową. Metody te można stosować przy estymacji wartości oczekiwanej zmiennej losowej o rozkładzie asymetrycznym, zarówno dla małych jak i dużych prób. Analiza własności bootstrapowych metod estymacji przedziałowej przeprowadzona została metodami Monte Carlo.
In the paper we present some chosen bootstrap methods of interval estimation of the population expectation for asymmetric distribution. We consider the standard bootstrap method, percentile method and t-bootstrap method. These methods can be used to estimate the expected value of asymmetric distribution for, both, small and large sample sizes. The analysis of the properties of bootstrap methods of interval estimation is performed by means of a simulation experiment.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2008, 216
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Trust and distrust as distinct concepts. A framework for the public sector
Autorzy:
Marzec, Małgorzata
Świrska, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1827125.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019-05-12
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczo-Humanistyczny w Siedlcach
Tematy:
Distrust
Public confidence
Public sector
Opis:
In the global rankings of generalized trust, Poland occupies a low position. Polish people are rather distrustful. Analyses of trust endeavour to isolate (distinguish) distrust. Distrust is more and more often defined as a separate definition, not only as the opposite to trust. Analysis of distrust seems indispensable, in particular with reference to the public sector. Public sector organizations point out at building trust. The article is an attempt to systematize the concept of distrust through analysis of trust and separation of basic differences in both concepts (trust and distrust) was made. A great significance of distrust towards entities (organizations) of the public sector may be observed. The objective of the article and research was to prepare a theoretical basis for the studies on distrust in the Polish public sector. The paper includes theoretical frameworks, which may be used for a detailed research on the role and significance of distrust in the public sector. The paper is based on the literature review and generally available data.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Przyrodniczo-Humanistycznego w Siedlcach; 2018, 45, 118; 45-53
2082-5501
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Przyrodniczo-Humanistycznego w Siedlcach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Consumer Confidence Indexes in New EU Member States
Autorzy:
Kokocińska, Małgorzata
Jankiewicz, Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500372.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
Consumer confidence indexes
emerging economies.
Opis:
One of the most important economic indicators developed on the basis of agents’ opinions is consumer confidence index. Such a situation stems from the fact that consumption is usually the most important element of total demand. In well developed economies in which consumer confidence indexes have been used for many years a lot of attention is paid to analysis of their behavior. They are the element of composite leading indicators developed among others by the European Commission and the US Trade Department. In the emerging economies, in which analyses of consumer behavior were introduced relatively recently, qualitative data on consumer confidence is treated with less attention. This suggests conducting research in such a field for new EU member states. Countries which joined EU in 2004 r. are: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia. This group of countries was subject to analysis presented in the paper. The main aim of the research is to find and analyze relationships between consumer confidence indexes and chosen macroeconomic variables. Research questions refer to common direction in such an analysis conducted worldwide: to identify factors influencing consumers’ opinion and check whether changes of consumer confidence lead to changes of chosen economic variables. Consumption in the state of equilibrium depends on propensity to consumption (measured by confidence index) and on possibilities which are represented by disposable income. Quantitative monthly data used in the research refers to purchasing power of households and consumption expenditure. On the other hand the scope of the research was aimed at main economic time series which can influence agents expectations. Composite consumer confidence index cannot be commonly applied to describe volatility of various types of consumption, so in the research simple (component) indicators were used as well. The analysis of linear relationships is based on the cross correlations. In order to find lags and leads there were estimated Pearson correlation coefficients for shifts ±12 months. The analysis of linear relationships was extended by Granger’s causality test in order to verify whether quantitative variables influence consumer’s answers. Reverse relationships were also verified. In order to track nonlinear relationships neural networks module of Statistica was used. In the case algorithm of optimal data set for model time series was applied. Achieved results allow to identify relationships between analyzed economic time series, but also can be treated as first step for introducing consumer confidence indicators to economic forecasting in chosen developing EU economies..
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2011, 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference; 161-183
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Znaczenie zaufania i kooperacji w wymiarach lokalnych widziane z perspektywy 25 lat samorządności w Polsce
Autorzy:
Konopka, Dorota
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/630193.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
Local government, Cooperation, Public confidence
Opis:
The article attempts to examine the progress that has been made in the area of self-government over the last quarter century in Poland. Not only has the chaos in the institutional process in this period affected the overall low level of citizens' trust in democratic institutions, but it also led to absence of effective cooperation between them. The author indicates two methods of both increasing public trust in the institution and increasing effectiveness of cooperation between institutions themselves, i.e. systematic changes in the self-government and glocalization of public trust.
Źródło:
Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego Studia i Prace; 2016, 4; 103-118
2082-0976
Pojawia się w:
Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego Studia i Prace
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Estimating the confidence interval of the regression coefficient of the blood sugar model through a multivariable linear spline with known variance
Autorzy:
Islamiyati, Anna
Raupong, Raupong
Kalondeng, Anisa
Sari, Ummi
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2019723.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-03-15
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
confidence interval
diabetes
known variance
spline
Opis:
Estimates from confidence intervals are more powerful than point estimates, because there are intervals for parameter values used to estimate populations. In relation to global conditions, involving issues such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, it is very difficult to make estimations limited to one point only. Therefore, in this article, we estimate confidence intervals in a truncated spline model for type 2 diabetes data. We use a non-parametric regression model through a multi-variable spline linear estimator. The use of the model results from the irregularity of the data, so it does not form a parametric pattern. Subsequently, we obtained the interval from beta parameter values for each predictor. Body mass index, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and triglycerides all have two regression coefficients at different intervals as the number of the found optimal knot points is one. This value is the interval for multivariable spline regression coefficients that can occur in a population of type 2 diabetes patients.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2022, 23, 1; 201-212
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A note on confidence intervals for deblurred images
Autorzy:
Biel, Michał
Szkutnik, Zbigniew
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/255867.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
inverse problems
confidence intervals
convolution
deblurring
Opis:
We consider pointwise asymptotic confidence intervals for images that are blurred and observed in additive white noise. This amounts to solving a stochastic inverse problem with a convolution operator. Under suitably modified assumptions, we fill some apparent gaps in the proofs published in [N. Bissantz, M. Birke, Asymptotic normality and confidence intervals for inverse regression models with convolution-type operators, J. Multivariate Anal. 100 (2009), 2364-2375]. In particular, this leads to modified bootstrap confidence intervals with much better finite-sample behaviour than the original ones, the validity of which is, in our opinion, questionable. Some simulation results that support our claims and illustrate the behaviour of the confidence intervals are also presented.
Źródło:
Opuscula Mathematica; 2020, 40, 3; 361-373
1232-9274
2300-6919
Pojawia się w:
Opuscula Mathematica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On some confidence intervals for population mean in case of asymmetric distributions of random variables
Estymacja przedziałowa wartości oczekiwanej asymetrycznych rozkładów zmiennych losowych
Autorzy:
Baszczyńska, Aleksandra
Pekasiewicz, Dorota
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907043.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
confidence interval
asymmetric distribution
asymmetry coefficient
Opis:
In the paper we present some methods of interval estimation of the population mean of skewed population. We consider nonparametric estimation method where information about the value of asymmetry coefficient is used. We apply simulation methods to compare the lengths of confidence intervals obtained by the considered method and the classical one.
W pracy przedstawiono pewną metodę estymacji przedziałowej średniej dla populacji o asymetrycznym rozkładzie. Rozważano metodę nieparametryczną wykorzystującą informacje o rzeczywistej lub oszacowanej wartości współczynnika asymetrii populacji. Za pomocą metod symulacyjnych dokonano porównania rozważanej metody z metodą klasyczną poprzez analizę długości przedziałów ufności oraz analizę odsetka przedziałów pokrywających szacowany parametr.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2008, 216
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 175

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