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    Wyświetlanie 1-7 z 7
    Tytuł:
    Podstawy metodyczne prognozy finansowo−gospodarczej dla Lasów Państwowych
    Methodological foundations of financial and economic forecast for the State Forests National Forest Holding
    Autorzy:
    Kocel, J.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1009555.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2010
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    lesnictwo
    surowce drzewne
    popyt
    drewno
    ceny
    pozyskiwanie drewna
    przychody
    koszty
    prognozowanie
    metodyka
    Panstwowe Gospodarstwo Lesne Lasy Panstwowe
    prognozy gospodarcze
    forecast
    wood price
    demand for wood
    income and expenses of the state forest nfh
    Opis:
    The article depicts the methodology of long−term financial and economic forecast for the State Forests. The method of forecasting Polish raw timber requirement was confined to determining the demand for timber materials whose use depends on the demand for final timber products. Timber price forecasts were carried out with the application of several methods and their reliability was evaluated using an expert’s method. The methods of assessing the timber harvest potential in the State Forests NFH in the forecast period were based on the forest management planning guidelines. Forest administration cost forecast variants were prepared. The forecasted income and expenses, as well as the financial result of the State Forests NFH were included in Excel forecast spreadsheets. The completed forecast was used in 2007 by the management of the State Forests NFH for salary negotiations with trade unions and for negotiating prices of services with forest companies.
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2010, 154, 01; 41-51
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Predykcja cen surowca drzewnego na podstawie siedmioletniego modelu tendencji rozwojowej
    Forecasting prices of timber raw material based on a seven-year development trend model
    Autorzy:
    Górna, A.
    Adamowicz, K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/979018.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    rynek drzewny
    surowce drzewne
    ceny
    prognozy cen
    modele liniowe
    leśnictwo
    wood market
    prediction
    price of wood
    forest marketing
    linear model
    forestry economics
    Opis:
    The article analyzes the possibility of using a seven−year development trend model to forecast the average price of wood sales (CGUS). Price models and forecasts were made on the basis of three different time series covering 7−year periods. The forecast of timber prices in individual years was developed on the basis of extrapolation going beyond the set of information adopted for research used to build the development trend model. We found that the size of the indicators of determination of the analyzed functions ranged from 0.5 to 0.6, and the convergence rates from 0.5 to 0.4. This means that the linear functions were characterized by poor adjustment to real prices. Despite this, the timber price forecasts differed from the empirical prices from PLN 1.81 to 13.91. In relative categories, the forecast error was in the range from 0.92 to 7.28%. Therefore, in our opinion, the research process presented can be a reference point as a comparative element to verify forecast results for other (non−linear) price forecasting models. The process of modeling timber raw material prices should be extended to other predictors related to the forest marketing chain. The predicted results from these models cannot be worse than those obtained by forecasting using linear functions
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2020, 164, 03; 206-215
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Analiza jakościowa i wartościowa drewna dębowego w sprzedaży submisyjnej drewna cennego w RDLP w Katowicach
    Quality and value analysis of oak wood in the submission sale of valuable wood in the Regional Directorate of the State Forests in Katowice
    Autorzy:
    Mirski, R.
    Malinowski, Z.
    Wieruszewski, M.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/979172.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    oak wood
    submission sales
    wood defects
    raw material price
    Opis:
    In special trade of the valuable wood raw material, in addition to system sales, the submission form is preferred. Increasing demand for high quality wood leads to an increase in market prices. Oak is that species that is devoted for the sale in the group of valuable wood in Poland. Oak timber have a number of features limiting their industrial significance. Its suitability is affected by quality and technical properties. The price level, which is a measure of the economic usefulness of wood, is affected by the share of defects and offered dimensions. The paper reviews the impact of not only the quality factor, but also indicates the correlation between the dimensional parameters of oak wood offered and the average sales prices of special raw material in the submission sales in the Regional Directorate of State Forests in Katowice. Attention was drawn to the influence of both the diameter of wood directed to trade at a constant log length. The paper presents the variability of oak wood prices, where a characteristic factor translating into an increase in the value of the raw material is undoubtedly the diameter of the logs of the valuable raw material.
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2020, 164, 06; 467-473
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A comparison of prediction efficiency for timber prices in Poland in times of economic crisis with the application of the linear approximation method and brown’s exponential smoothing model
    Autorzy:
    Górna, Aleksandra
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2067432.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    forest economics
    market
    price
    prediction
    raw wood
    Opis:
    An analysis was made of two prediction methods: the Linear Approximation Method (LAM) and Brown’s Exponential Smoothing Model (BESM). These two methods were investigated and compared in terms of their efficiency in timber price prediction. Models and price predictions were prepared based on three time series (5-, 7- and 9-year) for three years: 2015, 2016 and 2017. The analyses were conducted using data on mean annual timber prices from the period 2006-2017. This meant that the time series included the years of the 2007-2008 economic crisis. Prediction efficiency was evaluated by comparing the results obtained with actual timber prices in the years 2015-2017. It was found that the predictions generated by LAM were better than those produced by BESM. The smallest relative and absolute errors of prediction were obtained applying the linear function: Υt^ = 5.277t + 161.70. This function was constructed based on a 5-year time series. Absolute error amounted to 1.59 PLN (€0.35). Relative error was below 1%. The results of this work suggest that further studies are desirable to investigate the applicability of trend analysis to the prediction of timber prices with the inclusion of analyses of nonlinear trends. The present results of timber price modelling may provide a basis to search for a homogeneous model of timber price prediction adapted to specific conditions of timber sales.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2021, 64, 208; 135--147
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Cointegration analysis in the Central European spruce timber market
    Autorzy:
    Kożuch, Anna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2067428.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    wood economics
    timber market
    timber price
    market co-integration
    Opis:
    The oversupply of spruce timber in Central Europe reduces softwood prices, compromising the profitability of forest holdings. To date, relationships between Central European timber markets have been relatively little studied; the same is true of the factors affecting roundwood price variability and fluctuations in that region. An understanding of changes in those markets and linkages between them is important not only for forest owners and managers, but also for companies in the wood sector. The present work describes market analysis in terms of long-term correlations between the Austrian, Czech, Polish, and Slovak markets (cointegration analysis). Cause-and-effect relationships between the analyzed markets were verified using the Granger causality test. The Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests revealed a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed spruce sawlog markets, except for Slovakia. Bidirectional causality was found between the Austrian, Czech, and Polish markets. However, there was no evidence for the integration of pulpwood markets, which indicates their independence.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2021, 64, 208; 119--133
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The application of trend estimation model in predicting the average selling price of timber
    Autorzy:
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Górna, Aleksandra
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2010868.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    wood economics
    forest economics
    price forecast
    prediction methods
    trend estimation model
    Opis:
    The article analyzes the possibility of adopting trend estimation model to predict the average selling price of timber (CGUS). The study used information about the average selling prices of timber in chosen periods (2006-2017). The data concerning the actual CGUS was used to create a trend estimation model. The models and CGUS predictions were conducted based on three different time series encompassing 5-year periods. The predicted (CGUS) trend estimation in particular years was requested based on extrapolation, which exceeded the accepted set of information used in the study to create a trend estimation model. On the basis of the conducted study it was ascertained that the method of modeling linear trend estimation should be adopted in the price prediction process. The error assessment with which the linear function formulas are burdened, it was noticed that the value of the coefficient of residual variation was between 4.40% and 7.82%. It was also noticed that the linear modeling of CGUS trend estimation, despite unfavorable values of coefficient of determination and convergence, to some extent, can be viewed as an assistance tool in the decisionmaking process in the scope of predicting the height of the analyzed price. This view was supported by the achieved predictions which were verified with the actual prices of timber. The price difference between the actual and the predicted one was between -1.59 PLN to 2.27 PLN, and in relative terms the predictive error was between 0.83 to 1.15%. In our opinion the presented research process can constitute a reference point as a comparative element to verify the results for other, new price prediction models. The process of modeling timber prices should be extended by other predicators which are connected with forest market chain.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2020, 63, 206; 147-159
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Use of Target Costing methodology in the construction of woodaluminium windows — case study
    Autorzy:
    Potkány, Marek
    Krajčírová, Lucia
    Stasiak-Betlejewska, Renata
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2086475.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Politechnika Białostocka. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Białostockiej
    Tematy:
    allowable cost
    price
    profit
    Target Costing
    target cost index
    wood-aluminium window
    dopuszczalny koszt
    cena
    zysk
    rachunek kosztów docelowych
    docelowy wskaźnik kosztów
    okno drewniano-aluminiowe
    Opis:
    The paper concerns the practical application of Target Costing to a specific product of the woodworking industry with a particular emphasis on customer needs and value analysis principles concerning individual components and functions of the product — a wood-aluminium window Gemini Quadrat FB. Based on principles of value analyses, the study used the functional cost analysis, the quantified target cost index of relevant components and the target cost chart for the allowable cost of components. Two levels of the q parameter — 5 % and 10 % — were used to construct the target cost chart. The target price (EUR 513.19) was assessed. The target production cost was at the level of allowable production costs (EUR 379.31). The results were used to confirm that the ideal value of the target cost index was not achieved for any component, and a higher value of the parameter q can be marked as soft. The paper provides assumptions for the assessment of possible alternatives and potential corrections. The case study presents the description of the Target Costing methodology along with the nuanced characteristics of the approaches used by various authors and the strengths and benefits of using the method.
    Źródło:
    Engineering Management in Production and Services; 2021, 13, 4; 148--159
    2543-6597
    2543-912X
    Pojawia się w:
    Engineering Management in Production and Services
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-7 z 7

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