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Tytuł:
A new mathematical model for analytical risk assessment and prediction in IT systems
Autorzy:
Fray, I. E.
Kurkowski, M.
Pejaś, J.
Maćków, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206238.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
risk analysis
risk analysis methods
formal model for risk analysis
Opis:
In this paper, we propose a new formal model to describe risk analysis and measurement process for IT systems. Our model complies with international standards and recommendations for non-profit organisations. The model accounts for solutions used in widely known and recommended risk analysis methods and provides for evaluation of efficacy of these solutions. A simple example illustrates the application of the proposed model for effective risk analysis of any IT system.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2012, 41, 1; 241-268
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk in systems with virtualization : test case analysis
Autorzy:
Stanclik, M.
Walkowiak, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069148.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
virtualization
risk analysis
threats
Opis:
The paper presents an approach to risk analysis of exemplar test case information systems. Authors point out the common practice to implement virtualization and put away security considerations for future[5]. The overview of virtualization techniques, focusing on server virtualization is given. Next, authors present risk analysis of exemplar GIS system. First of all identification of threats is taken out focusing on virtualization aspects, but it also includes common threats for both that could have a significant impact on safety when using a virtualization. The risk assessment for the test case system was performed using qualitative method. Assessment of the likelihood and magnitude of impact of identified risks was performed on the basis of the expert’s knowledge and experience. The obtained results were used to develop risk rankings, which indicate the risks that need special attention when designing and managing a virtual system.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2013, 4, 2; 249--258
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Level of Risk and Decision-making in Managing Industrial Activity with the Elimination of Negative Environmental Impacts
Autorzy:
Végsöová, Oľga
Straka, Martin
Kyšeľa, Kamil
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1811590.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
risk
danger
threat
risk analysis
risk assessment
Opis:
This paper focuses on the assessment of the degree of risk in all phases of extraction activities in a selected quarry in the Slovak Republic. The research part of the paper assesses the degree of risk resulting from the assessment of the threat, the probability of the threat and the consequence of an adverse event in extraction activities. The paper offers an important basis for decision-making in quarry management in order to eliminate the negative consequences of andesite mining on the environment, equipment and people. The extraction activity in the Kecerovský Lipovec quarry is assessed by this paper as low risk for two phases of extraction, specifically the preparation phase, and the extraction itself. The paper also highlights the importance of taking measures. Regarding the safety criteria in the Kecerovský Lipovec quarry, it is possible, based on the results of the analysis and evaluation, to consider the quarry to be safe. However, a condition for this is the necessary expert training of workers in all activities performed while working in the quarry. Here, the need for personnel to strictly adhere to the set standards for extraction activities is of prime importance. This finding confirms the above that the aim of diagnosing and naming the potential for adverse events in the extraction process must be to minimize risks, as their absolute exclusion is not possible due to the human factor and unforeseeable circumstances.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2020, Tom 22, cz. 1; 130-143
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Statistically (optimal) estimators of semivariance: A correction of Josephy-Aczel’s proof
Autorzy:
Fleischer, Karlheinz
Nietert, Bernhard
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/433944.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
risk analysis
semivariance
statistical estimation
Opis:
Semivariance is an intuitive risk measure because it concentrates on the shortfall below a target and not on total variation. To successfully use semivariance in practice, however, a statistical estimator of semivariance is needed; Josephy and Aczel provide such an estimator. Unfortunately, they have not correctly proven asymptotic unbiasedness and mean squared error consistency of their estimator since their proof contains a mistake. This paper corrects the computational mistake in Josephy-Aczel’s original proof and, that way, allows researchers and practitioners in the field of downside portfolio selection, hedging, downside asset pricing, risk measurement in a regulatory context, and performance measurement to work with a meaningfully specified downside measure.
Źródło:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny; 2019, 17 (23); 9-30
1644-6739
Pojawia się w:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
How to Estimate Security – Problem Analysis
Autorzy:
Pilarski, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1807890.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-06-30
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
security
estimation
risk analysis
political risk
forecasting
Opis:
Background: The article presents a method of estimating the security level which indicates how probable it is for a phenomenon to occur. Objectives: The author attempts to answer the question: How do we estimate security? Decision makers usually need percentage showing the probability of an incident taking place in the future. This information is needed in the first place, later decision makers can use more descriptive information. Methods: The research problem concerns the assessment of security using the estimation method. Depicting security in numbers is difficult, thus the descriptive method is also usually applied. The estimation method facilitates the assessment. It is helpful since it is partly done by calculation and partly by guessing or approximation. Based on a case study analysing whether a terrorist attack may occur, the author also used tools such as averaging expert predictions, scenario analysis and risk analysis. Results: This article provides a view on forecasting security, which results in a method of estimating the level of security. Conclusions: The author presents an approach which allows to initially estimate the security level of the analyzed phenomenon in a relatively short period of time.
Źródło:
Security Dimensions; 2020, 33(33); 217-240
2353-7000
Pojawia się w:
Security Dimensions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Failure risk analysis in the water distribution system
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069656.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
failure
risk
water distribution system
Opis:
A water distribution system (WDS) ought to be high reliable continuous operating system. Failure factors in WDS should be identified and prioritised, for example, the causing factors in the most frequent failures in water-pipe network. In this paper, the failure risk analysis of the WDS is presented, and accordingly, a New method consisting the failures index (FI) and the evaluation of risk of failure within the relevant area, based on the assumed categories (tolerable, controlled and unacceptable risk). It is expecting that the methodology for the WDS performance risk analysis would provide the city leadership for decision making support.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 247--254
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zagrożenie wybuchem wodoru na okręcie podwodnym. Cz. IV, Prowadzenie projektów wysokiego ryzyka
The risk of hydrogen explosion in a submarine. Part IV, the implementation of high risk projects
Autorzy:
Kłos, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1359799.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Medycyny i Techniki Hiperbarycznej
Tematy:
ryzyko projektowe
analiza ryzyka w projekcie
metoda analizy ryzyka
project risk
project risk analysis
risk analysis methods
Opis:
W cyklu artykułów przedstawiono problematykę prowadzenia projektu dużego ryzyka na przykładzie modernizacji spalarek wodoru na okręcie podwodnym. W artykule opisano problemy zarządzania takim projektem.
This series of articles on high risk projects looks at the example of the modernisation of hydrogen incinerators on a submarine. The article describes problems connected with the management of such a project.
Źródło:
Polish Hyperbaric Research; 2017, 2(59); 7-56
1734-7009
2084-0535
Pojawia się w:
Polish Hyperbaric Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Importance of Information in Crisis Management
Autorzy:
Kaczmarczyk, Barbara
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1375100.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Policji w Szczytnie
Tematy:
crisis situations
crisis management
risk analysis
Opis:
Threats have accompanied humanity since the dawn of time. Most of them can develop into crisis situations that can be interpreted in many different ways. The crisis situation is closely linked with the concept of crisis management, which is implemented in four phases. At every stage of work, various elements are significant in terms of crisis management. There are also elements that are very important at every stage. These include: threat analysis, estimation of the probability of their occurrence in a given area, and assessment of their sensitivity. An appropriate information flow system supports the implementation of the above elements. This system should be effective in such relations as between services and between services and society. The effectiveness of information flow depends on the reliability of this information and its flow channel. Information is of particular importance in the decision-making process. It should have appropriate features and properties. Based on the information, both good and bad decisions can be made. In crisis management, this can be relevant to human health and even human life. This article discusses issues related to the nature of information in crisis management.
Źródło:
Internal Security; 2020, 12(1); 85-95
2080-5268
Pojawia się w:
Internal Security
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Steam turbine maintenance planning based on forecasting of life consumption processes and risk analysis
Autorzy:
Rusin, Andrzej
Tomala, Martyna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2172025.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
steam turbine
risk analysis
preventive maintenance
Opis:
Flexible operation of coal-fired power plants contributes to the intensification of the life consumption processes, which is a serious problem especially in the case of units with a long in-service time. In steam turbine rotors, the crack propagation rate and material wear caused by low-cycle fatigue increase. The aim of the research is an attempt to forecast the development of these processes and to estimate the probability of critical elements damage, such as the high-pressure and intermediate-pressure rotors. In the stress state analyses, the finite element method (FEM) is used, the Monte Carlo method and the second order reliability method (SORM) is apply to calculate the probability of failure. It is proposed to use risk analysis to plan preventive maintenance of the turbine. The optimal intervals for carrying out diagnostic tests and prophylactic repairs is determined for various operating scenarios and various failure scenarios. This enables a reduction of the costs while ensuring the safety of the turbine's operation.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2022, 24, 3; 395--406
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methods for risk analysis in disaster reduction
Autorzy:
Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069580.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
disaster reduction
natural hazards
Opis:
This paper discusses a proposal for a risk management tool for applications to risk reduction of natural hazards.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2007, 1; 121--125
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Ensuring Organisational Security from the Perspective of Security Sciences
Autorzy:
Płonka, Bogusław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1808093.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019-04-11
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
organisational security
control models
risk analysis
Opis:
This paper is dedicated to the topic of security in the context of activities carried out by organisations. The analysis of the security-related context of the enterprises, decisions and threats that often co-occur with organisational activities is an interesting challenge for a researcher. The aspiration to ensure their own survival and undisturbed development is the basic driving force behind all organisations. In the following paper, the author explains the meaning of basic terms connected with the aforementioned issues, such as uncertainty, risk and security. The models and dimensions of control are discussed consecutively, as well as the methods and techniques utilised in risk assessment. Control and risk analysis are currently the means of counteracting threats that is most commonly used in organisations. The aim of the paper is to carry out the review of the hitherto existing research stipulations regarding the sphere of organisational security. The author points out that the problem of organisational security, treated as a core research subject, may be successfully developed and elaborated within the framework of security sciences discipline.
Źródło:
Security Dimensions; 2018, 28(28); 122-140
2353-7000
Pojawia się w:
Security Dimensions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Substation reliability evaluation in the context of the stability prediction of power grids
Autorzy:
Borecki, M.
Ciuba, M.
Kharchenko, Y.
Khanas, Y.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/199826.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
reliability
power grid
risk analysis
substation
Opis:
The aim of the presented work was to examine the reliability assessment model on the example of a selected power grid object. The analyzed object was tested based on assumptions about technological breaks that were caused by overvoltage, among others. The study was conducted to check the reliability of integral elements of the power grid object and to assess the change in reliability level as a function of the frequency of inspections. The test results are to determine the optimal frequency of inspections of individual power grid objects in order to increase its reliability. In addition, the possibility of correlating optimal inspection periods resulting from the findings of this paper with periodic inspections of power network facilities was assessed.
Źródło:
Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences; 2020, 68, 4; 769-776
0239-7528
Pojawia się w:
Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting currency risk in an enterprise using the Monte Carlo simulation
Autorzy:
Kaczmarzyk, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/949105.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
corporate finance
financial risk
risk analysis
Monte Carlo
Opis:
A non-financial enterprise with receivables or liabilities denominated in a foreign currency is exposed to currency risk. Wanting to calculate a financial reserve in order to secure its receivables or liabilities, an enterprise can introduce the concept of the value at risk. To determine value at risk, an enterprise has to know the probability distribution of the future value of the receivable or the liability for a specific moment in future. Using a geometric Brownian motion to reflect exchange rate changes is among the possible solutions. The aim of the paper is to indicate that using the Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting the currency risk of an enterprise is a clear, easy-to-implement and flexible in terms of the assumptions approach. The flexibility of the Monte Carlo approach relies on the possibility to take up the assumption that the currency position changes caused by currency fluctuations have an other than normal probability distribution.
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2018, 23, 4; 50-62
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Easy Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Outline of the Method
Autorzy:
Wyszywacz, Wiktor
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/36783950.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Lotnictwa
Tematy:
easy risk assessment
UAS
safety
threats
risk analysis
Opis:
The key element of safety systems in air transport is risk management. The rules for the safety of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations are established by the Commission Implementing Regulations (European Union [EU]) and national regulations. Risk assessment is the foundation of all activities. The broadest scope is covered by the special category of flights for which the Joint Authorities for rulemaking on Unmanned Systems (JARUS) developed the Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) analysis. The primary purpose of the SORA analysis is to create a comprehensive safety portfolio, which is attached to the National Aviation Authority (NAA) application for permission to perform specific category flights. Aviation authorities may accept the use of other risk analysis methods to demonstrate risk reduced to a safe level. Easy Risk Assessment (ERA) for UASs is an attempt to determine the risk for UAS flights in a simple way by considering a range of factors influencing risk management in a similar way to the SORA. It is an uncomplicated method, which determines threats and their sources, provides risk management, and allows the determination of the level of risk tolerance. The ERA is intended to be an alternative to the SORA methodology for those looking to carry out risk assessment.
Źródło:
Transactions on Aerospace Research; 2022, 3 (268); 32-47
0509-6669
2545-2835
Pojawia się w:
Transactions on Aerospace Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka na rynku Nord Pool Spot
Risk Analysis on the Nord Pool Spot
Autorzy:
Ganczarek-Gamrot, Alicja
Krężołek, Dominik
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/589891.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Analiza ryzyka
Analiza wartości zagrożonej
Rynek energetyczny
Ryzyko inwestycyjne
Energy market
Investment risk
Risk analysis
Value at Risk Analysis
Opis:
The aim of this paper is the analysis of risk on Scandinavian energy market: Nord Pool Spot. The analysis is based on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As the normality assumption for linear returns of prices has been rejected, the alternative distribution has been proposed: the alpha-stable distribution. The results shown that there are some differences between risks among submarkets of Nord Pool Spot. Moreover, the alpha- stable distribution better approximate real Value-at-Risk than normal one only if quantiles of order 0,05 and 0,95 are considered.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2014, 192; 44-58
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Global risks – irrationality, identification and new type of threats
Autorzy:
FRANTIŠEK, HOCMAN,
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/890931.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018-08-17
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
global risk
risk analysis
risk area
risk exposure
risk of transfer
Opis:
Systematic analysis based on the assumption of rational behaviour of human being in addition to the mathematical models is based on the inherent factors in quantification of global risks. Decisions are made based on all available information, to act in order to maximize the utility. However, the current state of global quantification of risks based on the probability of economic loss scenarios, rationality of action in emergencies excludes and puts to the forefront scenarios likelihood and severity based on information asymmetry. If all risk takers were fully informed, it would avoid the moral hazard and the amount of individual risks would be stable in the global context.
Źródło:
Kultura Bezpieczeństwa. Nauka – Praktyka – Refleksje; 2016, 21; 138-146
2299-4033
Pojawia się w:
Kultura Bezpieczeństwa. Nauka – Praktyka – Refleksje
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Management of Change as a Part of Caring about Safety
Autorzy:
Ferjencik, M.
Cardoso Anastacio, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/357944.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Przemysłu Organicznego
Tematy:
accident prevention
risk analysis
LOPA
organizational change
Opis:
No plant, including those manufacturing explosives or explosive articles, remains unchanged during its lifetime. But it is also known that changes − revisions in the original design − quite often contribute to adverse events. Operators therefore need to know how to manage the modifications safely, not increasing the danger for the operation, its employees or its surroundings. This article describes two accidents in the explosives manufacturing industry that were caused by a deficiency in the management of change. For both cases, a possible way as to how the accidents could have been prevented using proper management of the change procedure, based on risk analysis, is described.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Energetic Materials; 2017, 14, 2; 469-486
1733-7178
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Energetic Materials
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Several sets of assumptions for the Monte Carlo simulation for a more precise analysis of enterprise risk
Autorzy:
Kaczmarzyk, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425026.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
corporate finance
risk analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
Opis:
The traditional methods of risk quantification include a sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The true nature of risk factors changes is ignored in the traditional ‘ceteris paribus’ approach to a sensitivity analysis, hence it can be reflected in a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The most significant disadvantage of a scenario analysis is the limited number of scenarios, whereas a historical simulation depends on historical data availability and adequacy. The Monte Carlo simulation is a clear answer to the limitations of traditional methods. The changes of risk factors reflected in the Monte Carlo simulation are simultaneous, non-linear and interdependent. The most important aspect of this method is the stage of taking up the assumptions. The purpose of the paper is to indicate that considering several reasonable sets of assumptions for the Monte Carlo simulation simultaneously can bring even more comprehensive information about enterprise risk.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2019, 23, 4; 80-95
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The meaning of geostatistical research in the light of the concept of assessing values of lignite deposits
Autorzy:
Pactwa, K.
Woźniak, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/88966.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Wydział Geoinżynierii, Górnictwa i Geologii. Instytut Górnictwa
Tematy:
geostatistics
lignite
mining
power engineering
risk analysis
Opis:
The article presents the role of geostatistical research in identification (and minimization) of a geological risk against the background of the concept presented, aiming at assessing the value of lignite deposits from the perspective of integrated entities, i.e. mines and power stations. A detailed review of the solutions in geostatistics is to prove their usefulness and convince about the purposefulness of their application. The issue of optimization of sampling the deposit is important in defining its value, and at the same time its future development. In addition, on each stage of the chain of creating the value, the areas were defined of uncertainties and a number of risk which are attached with reference to the solution proposed of assessing the deposit value.
Źródło:
Mining Science; 2015, 22, Special Issue 2; 105-112
2300-9586
2353-5423
Pojawia się w:
Mining Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Influence of implementation of technologically advanced evacuation models on the process of decreasing the risk during accidents in an LNG terminal
Autorzy:
Stanković, G.
Petelin, S.
Vidmar, P.
Perkovič, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/375466.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
Tematy:
LNG
risk analysis
evacuation model
analiza ryzyka
Opis:
The continuing growth of the LNG (liquid natural gas) industry has led to a rapid increase in the construction of LNG terminals and the need for accurate risk assessment models as accidents involving LNG are potentially hazardous and pose a major threat. One aspect of risk modeling - evacuation of people to the safe zones of an LNG terminal - is a complex problem that has yet to receive sufficient attention. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the implementation of a technologically advanced evacuation model may decrease risk during potential accidents in an LNG terminal.
Źródło:
Transport Problems; 2017, 12, 1; 25-38
1896-0596
2300-861X
Pojawia się w:
Transport Problems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Optymalizacja eksploatacji maszyn i urządzeń
Asset maintenance optimization
Autorzy:
Pietrzyk, A.
Uhl, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/328254.pdf
Data publikacji:
2002
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Towarzystwo Diagnostyki Technicznej PAN
Tematy:
RCM
analiza ryzyka
krytyczność
risk analysis
criticality
Opis:
W pracy wskazano możliwości optymalizacji decyzji eksploatacyjnych dzięki adaptacji metodologii RCM (ang. Reliability-Centered Maintenance), która poprzez integrację wielu dyscyplin nauki i techniki pozwala na efektywne technicznie i ekonomicznie planowanie działań serwisowych z uwzględnieniem warunków eksploatacji oraz oczekiwań użytkowników. RCM jest obecnie najpopularniejszą i najbardziej efektywną strategią zarządzania serwisem. Podstawy RCM zostały stworzone w latach 60-tych w przemyśle lotniczym USA. Dzięki serwisowi niezawodnościowemu uzyskano zmniejszenie kosztów eksploatacji samolotów przy jednoczesnej poprawie poziomu bezpieczeństwa lotów. Zaletą analizy RCM jest to, że może być przeprowadzona zarówno dla obiektów nowych jak i istniejących, a nawet już na etapie projektowania. W pracy przedstawiono propozycję oprogramowania ułatwiającego przeprowadzenie takich analiz oraz umożliwiającego wykonanie symulacji techniczno-ekonomicznych efektów proponowanych decyzji.
This paper presents possibilities of maintenance optymization with applying Reliability-Centered Maintenance based Methodology. RCM is a strategy that allow technically and economically effective maintenance task scheduling with respect to the users expectations in existing operating context. RCM is at moment the most popular and effective asset management strategy. RCM was developed over a period of thirty years in aviation industry. Applying RCM based techniques decreases flying costs and increases safety level. One of the benefits of RCM analysis is that it can be perform on the new or existing assets. RCM analyse can be applied even in the design phase. This publication presents software that assists in the analysis process, and allows to make economical symulations.
Źródło:
Diagnostyka; 2002, 26; 29-36
1641-6414
2449-5220
Pojawia się w:
Diagnostyka
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification of hazards in the workplaces of Artisanal mining in Katanga
Autorzy:
Elenge, Myriam M.
De Brouwer, Christophe
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2185473.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011-03-01
Wydawca:
Instytut Medycyny Pracy im. prof. dra Jerzego Nofera w Łodzi
Tematy:
artisanal mining
risk factor
risk analysis
occupational health
Katanga
Opis:
Objective: While artisanal mining takes place in casual framework and with total ignorance of good practices, few studies have focused on the origin of hazards specific to each workplace constitutive of this exploitation facility. Nevertheless, this study is a condition of an efficient occupational health and safety control in this sector. Materials and Method: We took the effort to identify different workplaces, as well as hazards specific to each of them, through the observation and analysis of the tasks, tools and the processes related to their use applied in the Ruashi artisanal mine. Results: The investigated exploitation facility consists of five workplaces: diggers (60% – in charge of mineralized gangue recovery); crushers; washers; hand-made furnace workers (in charge of various treatment processes); and loaders (in charge of packing the obtained material). Beside the risks common to these various workplaces and ensuing notably from the lack of hygiene and working in bad positions, operating in underground galleries, in particular, exposes diggers to the risks connected with collapsing parts of the mine, suffocation, dehydration or fine particles in the breathed air. Crushers are especially exposed to traumatism risks, notably ocular, and loaders are exposed to risks related to handling heavy loads. These risks are connected with the mining processes because, in spite of the similarity of tools, they appear less often in other forms of artisanal exploitation described in literature. It is notable in the case of crushing in sawed gas bottles where ocular trauma risk is decreased. It was also shown that humidification of work surface reduces dust particles emission into the air. Conclusions: Hazards identification, through a tools and processes description, has the advantage of providing information on reducing the occurrence of these risks. It shows that this reduction is not necessarily a consequence of the activity mechanization degree.
Źródło:
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health; 2011, 24, 1; 57-66
1232-1087
1896-494X
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Migration Crisis – risk analysis for 2017
Autorzy:
El Ghamari, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1202385.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Biznesu w Dąbrowie Górniczej
Tematy:
Migrant crisis
Frontex
Migrats routs
Risk analysis
Opis:
Regular passenger flows across external borders will also grow significantly in the coming years, in particular at the air border, due to increased global mobility. Visa liberalisation processes and local border traffic agreements also lead to greater responsibility for bordercontrol authorities. Movements across external air borders are managed through a layered approach, where the border is divided into four tiers. In this context, the physical border is gradually becoming a second ary layer for risk assessment, meaning that checking and screening start well before passengers cross bordercontrol posts at airports.
Źródło:
Security Forum; 2018, 1, Volume 2 No 1/2018; 37-49
2544-1809
Pojawia się w:
Security Forum
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methods for integrated Failure Risk Analysis of Water Network in terms of Water Supply System Functioning Management
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068882.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
water supply system
failure indicators
risk analysis
Opis:
In the paper the issues connected with failure risk analysis related to the functioning of this system were presented. In the analysis of water supply system it is important to assess the safety of its operation, both from the producer and the consumer point of view. The paper presents the method of analysis of consumers acceptance of water costs that companies bear for the risk reduction. The proposed method can be the basis of comprehensive program of risk failure management and in decision-making on water supply operation.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 157--166
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Examples of bow-tie risk analysis at maritime transport
Autorzy:
Smolarek, L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/242341.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
transport
risk analysis
BowTie method
AHTS ships
Opis:
There are different approaches to risk assessment. The SOLAS Convention is the most important safety instruments at maritime transport. The biggest risk is a major navigational incident because it can result in fatalities and pollution. Possibly the major cause of collision incidents is not fully understanding and complying the COLREGS rules. It is not possible to create a simple flowchart to define a suitable approach to risk assessment of a ship. However, some of broad factors can be used to aid the selection of a suitable risk assessment approach in maritime transport. In the literature, we can find many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis. There is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, especially for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles. This paper presents the attempt of applying the Bow-Tie methodology at maritime transport. The benefits of using Bow-Tie diagrams for risk assessment have been showed at use, for many of technical systems and processes. This methodology known as barrier diagrams, provide a readily understandable visualization of the relationships between the causes of the failure's event, the escalation of such events to a range of possible outcomes, the controls preventing the event from occurring and the preparedness measures in place to limit the consequences. The Bow-Tie is very useful for structured assessment and communication of risks.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2016, 23, 3; 489-494
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of the Relation between Serious Incident and Accident in Air Traffic
Autorzy:
Skorupski, Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/504624.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Międzynarodowa Wyższa Szkoła Logistyki i Transportu
Tematy:
traffic safety
air traffic management
risk analysis
Opis:
International aviation organizations require Poland to define the so-called acceptable level of safety for traffic accidents. To calculate this, one requires statistical data on accidents. These, however, in recent years did not occur, or the size of the sample is insufficient. In the paper a method for predicting the number of accidents on the basis of information on air incidents is mentioned. This method can be efficient and effective if any regular relation between the air traffic accident and serious incident exists. In the paper a way to find this relation is proposed, by analyzing the relevant simulation models of serious incidents and accidents. For this purpose Petri nets were used.
Źródło:
Logistics and Transport; 2010, 11, 2; 45-54
1734-2015
Pojawia się w:
Logistics and Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of tank safety with propane-butane on LPG distribution station
Autorzy:
Krzysiak, Z.
Samociuk, W.
Bartnik, G.
Plizga, K.
Dziki, D.
Kaliniewicz, Z.
Nieoczym, A.
Wyciszkiewicz, A.
Otto, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/778817.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Zachodniopomorski Uniwersytet Technologiczny w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane ZUT w Szczecinie
Tematy:
safety valve
risk analysis
emergency scenarios
LPG
Opis:
An analysis of the risk of failure in the safety valve – tank with propane-butane (LPG) system has been conducted. An uncontrolled outflow of liquid LPG, caused by a failure of the above mentioned system has been considered as a threat. The main research goal of the study is the hazardous analysis of propane-butane gas outflow for the safety valve – LPG tank system. The additional goal is the development of an useful method to fast identify the hazard of a mismatched safety valve. The results of the research analysis have confirmed that safety valves are basic protection of the installation (tank) against failures that can lead to loss of life, material damage and further undesired costs of their unreliability. That is why a new, professional computer program has been created that allows for the selection of safety valves or for the verification of a safety valve selection in installations where any technical or technological changes have been made.
Źródło:
Polish Journal of Chemical Technology; 2017, 19, 4; 99-102
1509-8117
1899-4741
Pojawia się w:
Polish Journal of Chemical Technology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis of Vegetables Marketing in Rwanda, A case of carrots and cabbages produced in Rubavu District and supplied across the country
Autorzy:
Kubwimana, Jean Jacques
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1892206.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-07-08
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
Risk, Risk analysis, Likert Scale, Marketing risk, Vegetable Marketing risk, and Risk Management.
Opis:
Due to the perishable nature and biological nature of the production process there is difficulty in scheduling the supply of vegetables to market demand. The vegetables are subjected to higher prices and quantity risks with changing consumers’ demand and production conditions. The core focus of this study was to reach, measure, and analyzing the marketing risk level of vegetables produced in Rubavu District, Rwanda. The study based on a survey of 90 vegetable sellers. At least 30 couple of wholesalers and middlemen visited Rubavu District to trade the vegetables for various retails. Primary data collected through structured questionnaires and secondary data sources used. A Five-point Likert associated with the bivariate analysis was used to rank the risk level while the full model of Linear Regression Analysis and factor analysis were used to identifier the majors’ factors associated with the risk in vegetable marketing in Rwanda. The mean score results derived based on Likert-Scales, indicated that “low seasonal product prices, weak market channels, poor logistics, and market communications, poor product handling and packaging, lack of storage and higher perishability’ identified to be the most important sources of risk. Therefore, the use of forwards’ contracts; getting market information, sell at crude prices due to perishability, contractual arrangements, maintaining good relationships and restoring the storage network system were of significant concerns for overcoming the recognized risks.  
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2020, 56, 2; 183-200
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Autorzy:
Flage, R.
Aven, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069562.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
quantitative risk analysis
QRA
uncertainty
sensitivity analysis
decision support
Opis:
A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a comprehensive, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main pillars of a risk description following this approach. We also indicate how this approach should relate to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. An example is included to illustrate ideas and findings.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 109--115
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainties on risk analysis : the consequence assessment in an hydrogen refuelling station
Autorzy:
Carpignano, A.
Ganci, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069552.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
uncertainty
risk analysis
hydrogen
consequence analysis
hydrogen refuelling station
Opis:
The paper concerns the problem of uncertainty associated to risk analysis of complex technological systems; this problem is not easy to resolve and manage. This is because such uncertainty has never been simple to quantify and, despite several innovative techniques able to properly manage uncertainties are available, none of these methodologies is integrated on the risk analysis in order to evaluate the error propagation. Also the itself risk analysis is not a precisely defined procedure but rather a complicated process of several parts and, moreover, each part is characterized by its own uncertainty. Several studies highlighted as the phases which mainly contribute to the overall uncertainty of a risk analysis are consequence and vulnerability studies. In order to provide a signifying approach to the problem, the working team has decided to focus their attention on a very important target for population safety: the hydrogen refuelling station for automotive.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 93--100
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The current state of scientific research of the process of risk management of Ukrainian energy sector enterprises
Autorzy:
Kuzior, Aleksandra
Babenko, Vitalina
Rekunenko, Іhor
Pohodenko, Borys
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27315557.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
STE GROUP
Tematy:
risk management
energy sector
sustainable development
risk management methods
risk analysis
Opis:
The research dedicated to risk management issues in the energy sector addresses current problems associated with risk management that arise in the energy sector. The aim of the study was to identify factors that affect risks, analyze scientific risk management methods, and consider innovative approaches to risk management in the energy sector. The study used a critical analysis of the literature on the subject as well as an analysis of risk management standards and methods. The innovation of the research lies in its consideration of modern trends in risk management in the energy sector, taking into account changing economic and political conditions, technical possibilities, as well as social attitudes and demands. The study showed that the most effective approach to risk management in the energy sector is the use of an integrated risk management system that takes into account all aspects of enterprise activity. The results of the study can be useful for energy companies that deal with risk management. They can be used to improve risk management strategies and reduce the possibility of negative consequences. In addition, this research can be used for educational purposes for students and professors who study risk management and the energy sector. The next steps of the research may include expanding the scope of the study to other areas and developing more detailed risk management models.
Źródło:
Management Systems in Production Engineering; 2023, 3 (31); 322--331
2299-0461
Pojawia się w:
Management Systems in Production Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Safety audit in production process
Autorzy:
Bujna, M.
Korenko, M.
Krocko, V.
Shchur, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/77386.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Komisja Motoryzacji i Energetyki Rolnictwa
Tematy:
safety audit
production process
safety risk
risk analysis
safety level
Źródło:
Motrol. Motoryzacja i Energetyka Rolnictwa; 2015, 17, 4
1730-8658
Pojawia się w:
Motrol. Motoryzacja i Energetyka Rolnictwa
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On a risk perspective for maritime domain
Autorzy:
Montewka, J.
Goerlandt, F.
Kujala, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069356.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
maritime traffic
probabilistic modeling
risk analysis
risk management
decision making
Opis:
In the maritime domain, the risk is evaluated within the framework of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), introduced by International Maritime Organization in 2002. Although the FSA has become internationally recognized and recommended method, the definition, which is adopted there, to describe the risk, seems to be too narrow to reflect properly the actual content of the FSA. Therefore this article discusses methodological requirements for the risk perspective, which is appropriate for risk management in the maritime domain with the special attention to maritime transportation systems (MTS). This perspective considers risk as a set encompassing the following: the set of plausible scenarios leading to an accident, the likelihoods of the unwanted events within the scenarios and the consequences of the events. These elements are conditional upon the available knowledge about the analyzed system, and understanding of the system behaviour, therefore these two are inherent parts of risk analysis, and need to be included in the risk description.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2013, 4, 1; 101--108
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Ekonomiczna analiza zarządzania ryzykiem powodziowym
Economic analysis of flood management
Autorzy:
Berbeka, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/96089.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Fundacja Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
Tematy:
zarządzanie ryzykiem powodziowym
analiza ryzyka
flood risk management
risk analysis
Opis:
W toczących się dyskusjach na temat zarządzania ryzykiem powodziowym dominują dwa stereotypy. Pierwszy eksponuje przekonanie, że zaniedbania w realizacji programów przeciwpowodziowych wynikają z braku środków finansowych. Drugi koncentruje się na uzasadnieniu technicznych rozwiązań ograniczania ryzyka (wały i zbiorniki), którym to koncepcjom nieczęsto przeciwstawia się systemy zintegrowane (renaturyzację, zalesianie, przygotowywanie terenów zalewowych). Uzupełnieniem takiej dyskusji są rozważania mające charakter analizy instytucjonalnej, wskazującej na nieefektywność obecnego podziału kompetencji w zarządzaniu ryzykiem powodziowym. Rzadko dyskusja koncentruje się nad przyczynami o charakterze podstawowym i pierwotnym – nad problemem zdefiniowania optymalnego zakresu niezbędnych inwestycji wynikającego z rachunku kosztów i korzyści zarządzania ryzykiem powodziowym.
The paper discusses some aspects of proper choice for the optimal flood management. The decision concerning the optimal risk and associated costs of meeting such targets should include the alternative possibilities of allocation of the public resources. Therefore the expectations of the hypothetical beneficiaries of mentioned programs are much higher than the government’s optimum. Furthermore, there are several methodical problems with a calculation of the optimum using the analysis of marginal costs and marginal benefits curves’. In spite of the lack of appropriate methodology the choice has to be done – as the first step aimed at implementation of any (also sub-optimal) programs.
Źródło:
Ekonomia i Środowisko; 2014, 1; 10-16
0867-8898
Pojawia się w:
Ekonomia i Środowisko
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Nowa technika analizy ryzyka w planowaniu kryzysowym prowadzonym przez jednostki samorządu terytorialnego w Polsce
A new risk analysis technique in crisis planning implemented by local governments in Poland
Autorzy:
Kleinowski, Marcin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/414335.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Instytut Ameryk i Europy. Centrum Europejskich Studiów Regionalnych i Lokalnych (EUROREG)
Tematy:
ryzyko
analiza ryzyka
planowanie kryzysowe
risk
risk analysis
crisis planning
Opis:
Artykuł prezentuje nową technikę analizy ryzyka. Analiza Zagrożenia Ludności i Mienia (People and Property Hazard Analysis – PPHA) jest probabilistyczną, półilościową techniką, nieskomplikowaną i łatwą do zastosowania. Zapewnia bardziej precyzyjne szacunki poziomu ryzyka niż Wstępna Analiza Zagrożeń (Preliminary Hazard Analysis – PHA) – prawdopodobnie najbardziej powszechnie wykorzystywana przez jednostki samorządu terytorialnego w Polsce. PPHA można zastosować w analizie wszystkich wspólnot i organizacji. Celem nowej techniki jest zapewnienie narzędzia, które wesprze decydentów w efektywnym alokowaniu ograniczonych zasobów w szerokim wachlarzu potencjalnych inwestycji mogących obniżać ryzyko. Uzupełnienie artykułu stanowi aktywny formularz zawierający dane wejściowe i wyliczenia potrzebne do oszacowania ryzyka dla przykładowych zagrożeń przedstawionych w jego treści. Ma on również ułatwić stosowanie techniki PPHA w praktyce.
This article presents new risk analysis technique. The People and Property Hazard Analysis (PPHA) is probabilistic, semiquantitative technique, uncomplicated and easy to use. It provides more precise estimates of a risk level than preliminary hazard analysis – probably the most commonly performed technique by local governments in Poland. PPHA is applicable to the analysis of all types of communities and organizations. The purpose of the new technique is to provide a tool that can assist decision-makers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risk.
Źródło:
Studia Regionalne i Lokalne; 2013, 3(53); 39-59
1509-4995
Pojawia się w:
Studia Regionalne i Lokalne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bi-objective maritime route planning in pirate-infested waters
Autorzy:
Vaňek, O.
Hrstka, O.
Kopřiva, Š.
Faigl, J.
Pěchouček, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/906066.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Tematy:
maritime piracy
risk-aware planning
optimization
risk analysis
modeling
FTA
Opis:
Contemporary maritime shipping is subject to a large number of constraints given by tight shipping schedules and very low margins. Additionally, problematic areas with increased security needs dynamically changing in time, combined with seasonal oceanographic and meteorological conditions pose a challenging voyage planning problem. In this work we present a risk-aware voyage planner taking into account spatio-temporal environmental conditions. The planner is based on a graph-based search algorithm A* . We discretize the required area into a graph, we store various layers of information into the edges of the graph (such as risk and weather conditions) in a form of numeric weights and we define a bi-objective planning problem with a tradeoff between security and duration of the voyage. The nature of the algorithm guarantees a complete and optimal solution in a form of an optimized voyage with respect to the criterion function composed of the two weighted components, i.e, duration and security of the voyage. We demonstrate the approach on our area of interest: Indian Ocean. We use NATO piracy activity risk surface as the risk layer and we compute all transit voyages between relevant routing points in the area. Finally, thanks to the discretization of the problem, we are able to integrate corridors imposed by the shipping authorities and evaluate additional what-if scenarios with extended corridor systems. The resulting planner is exposed to the public using a web service with an easy interface requiring start time of the voyage and the origin and the destination point of voyage. Combined with an expressive visualization, this tool demonstrates the capabilities of the proposed solution.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2015, 43 (115); 115-124
1733-8670
2392-0378
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Critical infrastructure in Polish national risk assessment
Autorzy:
Leduchowska, D.
Pyznar, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069322.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
National Risk Assessment
Critical Infrastructure Protection
risk identification
risk analysis
risk evaluation
Opis:
Polish National Risk Assessment is produced every two years to identify, analyse and evaluate all risks which can cause a significant harm to the national security. Identified risks include natural disasters, major accidents and civil hazards as well as terrorism and other malicious attacks. Critical infrastructure might be destroyed or damaged as a result of events caused by the forces of nature or human action. Simultaneously, destruction or damage to the critical infrastructure might cause a serious threat to the state and the life of its citizens.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2015, 6, 3; 85--90
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis when navigating in restricted sea areas
Autorzy:
Rutkowski, G.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/320869.pdf
Data publikacji:
2006
Wydawca:
Polskie Forum Nawigacyjne
Tematy:
analiza ryzyka
wody ograniczone
risk analysis
restricted waters
Opis:
This paper discusses the question of classifying the sea areas as sea areas difficult for navigation, unrestricted sea areas and sea areas restricted by land (bottom or shore). Most of all, the article depicts the characteristics of restricted sea areas. It presents the attempt to define in a new way the following notions: "safety of shipping", "safety of navigation", "risk of navigation", "risk of collisions", "navigational obstacle", and "sea area difficult for navigation". In this paper author also presents methods that can be used for estimating safety of navigation (navigational risk) in the restricted sea areas by means of the model of the ship's domain. The essence of the method suggested in the thesis is the systematic approach to sea vessel operation in the aspect of estimating its safety when navigating in restricted sea areas.
Źródło:
Annual of Navigation; 2006, 11; 103-122
1640-8632
Pojawia się w:
Annual of Navigation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Normy, stardardy, modele i zalecenie w zarządzaniu bezpieczeństwem
NORMS, STANDARDS, MODELS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INFORMATION SECURITY MANAGEMENT
Autorzy:
Kreft, Karol
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/419224.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Gdański. Wydział Ekonomiczny
Tematy:
information
security management systems
risk analysis
security models
Opis:
Information is the factor which can decide about the potential and market value of a company. An increase in the value of intellectual capital of an information-driven company requires development of an effective security management system. More and more often companies develop information security management systems (ISMS) based on already verified models. In the article, the main problems with management of information security were discussed. Security models were described, as well as the risk analysis in information security management.
Źródło:
Współczesna Gospodarka; 2010, 1, 1
2082-677X
Pojawia się w:
Współczesna Gospodarka
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Automatic control of ship motion conducting search in open waters
Autorzy:
Kula, Krzysztof Stefan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1573705.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Gdańska. Wydział Inżynierii Mechanicznej i Okrętownictwa
Tematy:
computer control
IMC control
safety and risk analysis
Opis:
In this work a search operation support system is presented, which is an additional autopilot function block. Its task is to lead a vessel included in the search by the SAR services to the datum position on the basis of the data entered by the operator into the system and then automatically to search the indicated area according to the newly defined search pattern. The set goal can be achieved thanks to the autopilot that guides the ship along a given trajectory consisting of straight lines and arcs. High control accuracy is provided by the IMC control system using a relatively simple non-linear ship model. The simulation tests of the tanker model confirmed that the indicated search area can be precisely checked in a shorter time than when using the expanding square search pattern.
Źródło:
Polish Maritime Research; 2020, 4; 157-169
1233-2585
Pojawia się w:
Polish Maritime Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Implementation of information security management system in the small healthcare organization
Autorzy:
Tupa, J.
Steiner, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/309451.pdf
Data publikacji:
2006
Wydawca:
Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
information security management
personal data protection
risk analysis
Opis:
The contribution describes the scope and main subject designed within DIGI-Q project. The paper contains results from subprojects of information security management system (ISMS) implementation, managed by students of DIGI-Q course. Very interesting simple risk assessment method and risk management and their application within in small healthcare organization were developed. Criteria and procedures accepted are described.
Źródło:
Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology; 2006, 2; 52-58
1509-4553
1899-8852
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
CIPRNet Decision Support System: Modelling Electrical Distribution Grid Internal Dependencies
Autorzy:
Tofani, A.
Di Pietro, A.
Lavalle, L.
Pollino, M.
Rosato, V.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069305.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
natural hazards
risk analysis
interdependencies
power network
SCAD
Opis:
In this work, we present a peculiar application contained in a Decision Support System for Risk Analysis of (inter)dependent Critical Infrastructures under development within the EU FP7 CIPRNet Project. The application shows the efficacy and the benefits derived from a complete information of the multiple (inter)connected infrastructures (electrical and telecommunication) present in a Crisis Scenario. Electrical Distribution operators use SCADA systems to perform remote operations (tele-control) on the electrical grid such to ensure a constant and efficient energy supply to the consumers. Tele-control operations bi-directionally couple telecommunication and electrical networks: faults in one network produce effects, which then reverberate on the other. The work shows how the DSS, based on the damage estimate occurring on the two systems, may predict the correct tele-control operations needed for the restoring of the electrical grid based on topological properties of the electrical substations and the Telecom nodes.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2015, 6, 3; 133--140
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis in maintenance processes
Autorzy:
Drożyner, Przemysław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1818983.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Białostocka. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Białostockiej
Tematy:
risk analysis
maintenance
reliability
analiza ryzyka
konserwacja
niezawodność
Opis:
The article aims to present practical methods for prioritising the activities of maintenance departments based on the Pareto analysis and the failure risk analysis. Based on the collected data on the number of observed failures and their removal times, commonly known reliability indicators were determined, which were then used to estimate the probabilities and consequences of failures in terms of the risk of loss of production continuity. Based on commonly collected failure data, the developed methods allow proposing to the maintenance departments the sequence of maintenance and repair work to be undertaken in terms of minimising the risk of failure. Risk analysis is somewhat commonly used in the practice of maintenance departments (e.g. RBI, FMEA, ETA, FTE, HIRA). The added value of this work is the use of reliability indicators for estimating the values of risk components, i.e., probability and consequences. The method was developed on the basis of operational data collected in one of the plants of the dairy cooperative and, after assessing the effects of its implementation, it was implemented in other enterprises of the cooperative.
Źródło:
Engineering Management in Production and Services; 2020, 12, 4; 64--76
2543-6597
2543-912X
Pojawia się w:
Engineering Management in Production and Services
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wielowymiarowa warunkowa wartość zagrożona jako miara ryzyka
The Multivariate Conditional Value-At-Risk As a Measure of Risk
Autorzy:
Krzemienowski, Adam
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/591326.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Analiza wartości zagrożonej
Pomiar ryzyka
Wielowymiarowa analiza ryzyka
Zmienne losowe
Multi-dimensional risk analysis
Random variable
Risk measures
Value at Risk Analysis
Opis:
The Multivariate Conditional Value-at-Risk (MCVaR) is a scalar risk measure for multivariate risks modeled by multivariate random variables. It is assumed that the univariate risk components are perfect substitutes, i.e., they are expressed in the same units. MCVaR is a quantile risk measure that allows one to emphasize the consequences of more pessimistic scenarios. By changing the level of the quantile, the measure permits to parameterize prudent attitudes toward risk ranging from extreme risk aversion to risk neutrality. In terms of definition, MCVaR is slightly different from the popular and well-researched Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Nevertheless, this small difference allows one to efficiently solve MCVaR portfolio optimization problems based on the full information carried by a multivariate random variable using column generation technique, which is not possible in the case of CVaR.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2013, 154; 53-60
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis of Trans Papua Corridor Road Infrastructure Development in West Papua and Papua Province of Indonesia
Autorzy:
Rizal, Achmad
Junianto, Junianto
Sahidin, Asep
Zaida, Zaida
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1075463.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Tematy:
Impact
Probability
Risk Analysis
Trans Papua
West Papua
Opis:
Trans Papua corridor highway is now an important highway, predictable way Trans Papua will experience overcapacity in the future. To overcome this situation the trans-Papua road building is planned. The investment of highway construction will always be involved in risk with certain scale, it is necessary to do the risk analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risk, measuring of risk probability point and risk impact and risk test by performing simulations using @Risk For Excel software. This research was conducted using a survey method and interview with respondents. The survey was conducted in three phases, namely: beginning survey, preliminary survey and detailed survey. Based on research conducted identified four risk factors are financing risk, construction risk, equipment risk and force majeure. These four risks are identified in the medium risk category. The influence level of risk impact to the increase of construction investment budget plan trans-Papua roads as a whole amounted to 8.07% (IDR. 1,183 trillion equivalent to USD 82,684 million) with risk factor for 0,549 then classified as medium risk. While detaily 15% (IDR. 2,194 trillionequivalent to USD 153,346 million) by a factor of 0.685 then risk being classified as at risk. The most sensitive risk is the risk of Construction.
Źródło:
World Scientific News; 2019, 126; 261-275
2392-2192
Pojawia się w:
World Scientific News
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of the increase of construction costs in urban regeneration projects
Autorzy:
Apollo, M.
Miszewska-Urbańska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/103227.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
risk analysis
cost management
urban regeneration
cost increase
Opis:
The subject of this paper is the analysis and evaluation of the reasons for construction costs increases in urban regeneration projects. The analysis considers major refurbishments of real estates’, as well as heavy repair and modernization of the road system. For the period mentioned, the costs from works and expenditure schedules were compared with the costs of additional works, which shows the percentage cost increase in relation to initial project budget assumptions of the case study. The analysis revealed that due to difficulties in assessing technical state of inhabited buildings, the investor and potential contractor should pay special attention to the character of issues presented in this paper, taking into account an increased risk of their occurrence.
Źródło:
Advances in Science and Technology. Research Journal; 2015, 9, 28; 68-74
2299-8624
Pojawia się w:
Advances in Science and Technology. Research Journal
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of risk and failure scenarios in water supply system
Autorzy:
Boryczko, K.
Rak, J.
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069508.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
fault tree analysis
matrix methods
risk analysis
water supply system
Opis:
Water supply system is complicated technical system which belongs to underground urban infrastructure. Its accurate functioning determines everyday live stability of citizens. Risk analysis is a key phase of the process of water supply safety management. The aim of this paper is to present new propose of methods for risk of the first type (associated with quantity of supplied water) and the risk of the second type (associated with quality of supplied water) analyses in water supply system. The paper contains the description of matrix methods for risk analyses and methods describing cause-and-effect relationship of failure events (fault tree analysis).
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2014, 5, 2; 11--18
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk and reliability analysis of the selected Boeing types
Autorzy:
Woch, M.
Kamiński, G.
Matyjewski, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069225.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
reliability analysis
risk analysis
Boeing 727
Boenig 737
Boenig 747
Opis:
This article presents the analysis of risk and reliability of the Boeings 727, 737, 747 fleet. This analysis includes the study of reliability and risk of the number of aircrafts in operation for those Boeings, considering the long list of accidents that the aircraft has suffered around all the series and the unfortunate fatalities which are the result of each catastrophe. Beside this, it is possible to see the analysis of accidents caused by each phase of flight, undesirable event and weather. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the number of flight hours and the number of flights of the Boeings fleet, among other data, was obtained from official sources pages.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 1; 241--246
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza wielokryterialna w badaniach nad bezpieczeństwem
Multicriterial analysis in safety research
Autorzy:
Prońko, J.
Wojtasiak, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/136552.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej
Tematy:
bezpieczeństwo
analiza wielokryterialna
analiza ryzyka
safety
multicriterial analysis
risk analysis
Opis:
Celem artykułu jest prezentacja metodyki oceny poziomu bezpieczeństwa wykorzystującej analizę wielokryterialną. Analiza wielokryterialna kojarzona jest najczęściej z problematyką podejmowania decyzji, która powinna optymalizować więcej niż jedną funkcję celu. Jednoznaczne rozwiązanie takich problemów jest niemożliwe, ponieważ decyzja optymalna dla jednego z celów nie jest jednocześnie decyzją optymalną dla pozostałych. Udowodnił to już włoski ekonomista i socjolog V. Pareto, wprowadzając pojęcie zbioru decyzji niezdominowanych. Jest to zbiór decyzji, z których każda jest lepsza od pozostałych pod względem jednego z kryteriów wyboru. Istnieje wiele metod rozwiązywania takich problemów. Sprowadzają się one do sposobu połączenia wszystkich kryteriów wyboru w jedno metakryterium. To połączenie może odbywać się na drodze matematycznej lub heurystycznej. Do drugiej grupy należy metoda Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) zaliczana do amerykańskiej szkoły wielokryterialnego podejmowania decyzji (ang. multiple-criteria decision-making – MCDM). Podobną metodą jest analiza morfologiczna opracowana przez F. Zwicky’ego – uznawana za jedną z ważniejszych metod stymulujących twórcze myślenie. W metodzie tej tworzy się rozwiązania oparte na łączeniu wielu parametrów charakteryzujących dany problem. Prowadzi to często do odkrycia nietypowych zestawień stymulujących twórcze myślenie badacza. Metodę tę często wykorzystuje się w różnych konfiguracjach, do tworzenia nowych produktów zarówno w sferze materialnej, jak i intelektualnej. Poczucie bezpieczeństwa jest zawsze wieloaspektowe, dlatego też jego pomiar powinien być wielokryterialny. Problemem pozostaje jednak ocena poziomu bezpieczeństwa, którą należy sprowadzić do jednego metakryterium. Bo tylko wówczas możemy porównywać ze sobą różne rozwiązania tego samego problemu pod kątem ryzyka. W badaniach zastosowano podejście teoretyczne, skupiając się przede wszystkim na sformułowaniu definicji bezpieczeństwa przydatnej w kontekście analizy wielokryterialnej oraz przedstawiono wybrane rozwiązania stosowane w ocenie poziomu bezpieczeństwa. Analiza wielokryterialna poziomu bezpieczeństwa może również służyć odkrywaniu prawdziwych przyczyn zagrożeń. Często prosta, jednokryterialna analiza prowadzi do niewłaściwych wniosków zarówno co do poziomu bezpieczeństwa, jak i przyczyn jego zagrożeń.
The aim of the article is to present the methodology for assessing the level of security using multicriterial analysis. Multicriterial analysis is mostly associated with the decision-making issues which should optimize more than one objective function. Unequivocal solution of such problems is impossible because optimal decision for one of the objectives is not optimal for the remaining at the same time. An Italian economist and sociologist, Vilfredo Pareto, already proved it by introducing the concept of a set of non-dominated decisions. It is a set of decisions, each of which is better than the others in terms of one of the selection criteria. There are a lot of methods of solving such problems. They boil down to the way of connecting all the selection criteria in one metacriterion. This connection can be carried out in a mathematical or heuristic way. The second method is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is included in the American school of Multi-Criteria decision making (MCDM). The similar method is a morphological analysis developed by Fritz Zwicky, which was considered as one of the most important methods stimulating creative thinking. This method is used to create solutions based on a combination of many parameters characterizing the problem. This often leads to the discovery of the unusual combinations that stimulate creative thinking of the researcher. This method is often used in a variety of configurations to create the new products, both in the material and intellectual sphere. Sense of security is always multifaceted; therefore, its measurement should be multicriterial. Because only then we can compare different solutions to the same problem, in terms of risk. Theoretical framework was used in the research focus primarily on the wording of the definition of security useful in the multicriterial analysis and several solutions applied in assessing the level of security are presented. Multicriterial analysis of the safety level may also be used for discovering the real causes of threats. Simple, single-criterion analysis leads to incorrect conclusions, both in relation to the level of safety and the causes of threats.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej; 2018, 2, 66; 123-143
0239-5223
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Kontrola i nadzór na podstawie ryzyka. Podejścia stosowane w nadzorze i kontroli
Risk-Based Audit and Supervision. The Approach Used in the Supervision of the Financial Market and State Auditing
Autorzy:
Maciejewski, Mariusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/416474.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016-12
Wydawca:
Najwyższa Izba Kontroli
Tematy:
risk based supervision
risk based audit
risk analysis
effectiveness
public administration audit
Opis:
The method of risk-based supervision, developed by the American banking supervision, is in its nature a universal method that can be successfully applied in other areas. Due to vast global experience in the field and the advancement of this method, it is worth observing the application of the approach to the financial market and considering other areas in which it can potentially be applied, and to what extent and in what way it can be transferred. Even more so, since recently a project appeared to make certain public organs obliged to apply this approach, which has met with serious objections on the part of several audit bodies. For a few years, the Supreme Audit Office of Poland has been also directing towards performing its duties on the basis of risk analysis, which is clearly visible in its audit plans and in NIK’s publications.
Źródło:
Kontrola Państwowa; 2016, 61, 6 (371); 21-37
0452-5027
Pojawia się w:
Kontrola Państwowa
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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