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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 298
Tytuł:
A COMPARISON OF THE USEFULNESS OF WINTERS’ AND SARIMA MODELS IN FORECASTING OF PROCUREMENT PRICES OF MILK IN POLAND
Autorzy:
Lira, Jarosław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453746.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
forecast
forecast accuracy
forecast error measures (ex post)
Opis:
In the paper the Winters’ model has been studied as one from adaptive models based on exponential smoothing methods as well as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model SARIMA. The aim of the paper is the assessment of accuracy of short-term forecasts of procurement prices of milk in Poland. Empirical verification of ex post forecasts of monthly procurement prices of milk on the basis of 109 time series with 12-month forecast horizon was conducted. Forecasts constructed with the use of SARIMA model are more often exact than when additive and multiplicative Winters’ model are used.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2013, 14, 1; 325-333
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
WHY ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE NOT ACCURATE
Autorzy:
Beata, Bazeli,
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/897983.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018-12-11
Wydawca:
Kujawsko-Pomorska Szkoła Wyższa w Bydgoszczy
Tematy:
forecasting
forecast
forecasting methods
forecast accuracy
Opis:
Predicting the future is an essential element in the preparation of human action, and one of the predictions of the future is forecasting. The methodology of forecasting economic processes is very rich and extremely difficult workshop and therefore there are many methods of forecasting. The article discusses the conditions under which more or less accurate forecasts of the future can be made. The purpose of the study is to identify the main causes for the failure of forecasts while emphasizing the need to develop them.
Źródło:
Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy; 2017, 1(10); 11-23
1899-9573
Pojawia się w:
Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Roundwood production forecasting in Poland, on the basis of the data of the central statistical office in the years 2000 - 2012
Autorzy:
Andrushko, L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/95021.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
wood industry
forest industry
roundwood production
econometric model
point forecast
interval forecast
forecast evaluation
Opis:
The paper presents the results of research on the construction and evaluation of the forecast of the economic phenomenon in the future time period on the example of roundwood production in Poland. The process of building an econometric model as a linear function is illustrated in this paper. The trend function was verified and the convergence coefficient was calculated. The point and the interval forecast was constructed. On the basis of the results of studies the forecast accuracy was evaluated and a number of recommendations were presented. The recommendations regard the use of research results for decision-making and the needs of the material economy.
Źródło:
Information Systems in Management; 2016, 5, 3; 307-317
2084-5537
2544-1728
Pojawia się w:
Information Systems in Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
HOW THE CENTRAL BANK MAKES DECISION ON INTEREST RATES? A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECAST IMPORTANCE
Autorzy:
Szyszko, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/517252.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
central bank
inflation forecast
inflation forecast targeting
decision-making
Opis:
Research background: Most of the modern central banks (CBs) acknowledge the role of economic agents’ expectations in monetary policy. To shape these expectations and to over-come the lags occurrence, CBs produce and reveal macroeconomic forecast and declare that it is the input into their deliberations and monetary policy adjustments. This is how central banks implement inflation forecast targeting. The formal assessments of actual forecast importance in central banks’ decisions is not presented in the literature — to the best author’s knowledge. Purpose of the article: The paper is of methodological nature. It presents the index that compares inflation forecast importance in the central banks decisions. The elaboration of such index is the main goal of the paper. The index is tested empirically for Czechia and Sweden. Methods: Comparably to other research presenting the tools that approximate some qualitative variables, the methodological part of the paper offers the description of the factors covered by the index with their justification and point attribution. The index is suitable to assess CBs decision’s accordance with the forecast produced under constant rate assumption as well as under endogenous interest rates. It is designed to cover low quality data as the time series on the central path of the forecast are not always accessible. In this cases only the relation of the forecast to the inflation target is revealed on the fan charts. Findings & Value added: The index elaboration and its calculation for Czechia and Sweden is presented in the paper. It thus contributes to the literature on ex post assessment of the central bank’s actions. This formalized assessment opens the field for making further con-clusions on inflation forecast targeting implementations and possible impact of the forecast on the economic agents' expectations.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2017, 12, 2; 281-294
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Status prognozy w teorii zarządzania
Autorzy:
Dudek, Mariusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2158636.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Instytut Studiów Międzynarodowych i Edukacji Humanum
Tematy:
management theory
forecast
Opis:
Today, the results of all major projects are forecast. According to the author, the role of forecasts will continue to grow, especially in management.
Źródło:
Prosopon. Europejskie Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne; 2012, 2(4); 143-147
1730-0266
Pojawia się w:
Prosopon. Europejskie Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries in Poland up to the year 2020 (part I)
Autorzy:
Giernalczyk, M.
Gis, W.
Menes, E.
Waśkiewicz, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/247560.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
motor transport
lorries
forecast
Opis:
Discussed methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers have been presented in two parts. In this part has been give forecast of freight road transport volumes up to the year 2020, estimated structure of the fleet in the initial period of the forecast and variant forecast of the fleet size and its structure according to categories and age. In second part has been given forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries. The forecast of freight road transport volumes has been developed through an innovative application of the expert cross-influence method. It was assumed that economic and social events exerting a particularly strong influence on the future development of freight road transport volumes in Poland currently are and will continue to be in the future as follows: economic development of the state, changes in the structure of GDP production, development of the international exchange of goods, increase in investment and domestic consumption, decrease in material consumption and energy consumption of the production, development and modernization of road infrastructure and rail transport, internalization of transport external costs, changes in spatial arrangement of production, storage and consumption. The forecast of transport included two variants. The pace of growth of freight road transport in 2020 should fall within the range of 147 - 152% in comparison to figures recorded in 2004. As far as absolute values are concerned that would correspond to about 190 - 196 billion tonne - kilometres.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2008, 15, 3; 155-161
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carries by lorries in POland up to the year 2020 (Part II)
Autorzy:
Gis, W.
Menes, E.
Waśkiewicz, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/241669.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
lorries
energy consumption
forecast
Opis:
Discussed methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers have been presented in two parts. In first part has been given forecast of freight road transport volumes up to the year 2020. Estimated structure of the fleet in the initial period of the forecast. Variant forecast of the fleet size and its structure according to categories and age. In this part has been given forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries. When forecasting the scale of demand for individual energy carriers by lorries in a given year, the following issues were taken into account: estimated numbers of vehicles registered according to categories and production periods, an estimated average consumption offuels per 100 km of mileage according to specified categories of vehicles and their production periods, estimated average annual mileages of vehicles according to categories and production periods. A drop in the use of petrol by lorries in Poland is expected to have taken place by the year 2020. The estimated forecast level amounts to 315-325 Gg. The use of petrol in 2020 would decrease to the level of 55-57% of the consumption in the initial period of the forecast. An estimated increase in the demand for diesel fuels by lorries is expected to take place in Poland in 2020 and it is envisaged to reach the level of 5848-7680 Gg, which compared to the consumption in the initial period of the forecast, would be tantamount to an increase dynamics of 170-223%. The demand for LPG fuels by lorries in 2020 should amount to 264-287 Gg, (an increase of 147-160% compared to the initial period of the forecast). The demand for CNG fuel by lorries in 2020 would reach 61-68 Gg.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2008, 15, 4; 157-162
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Verification of numerical forecast of atmospheric parameters near the Polish coast using the data from MIG-1 buoy
Autorzy:
Kałas, M.
Staśkiewicz, A.
Szefler, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1920639.pdf
Data publikacji:
2001
Wydawca:
Instytut Morski w Gdańsku
Tematy:
forecast
MIG-1 buoy
Opis:
The paper presents results of comparison of the numerical weather forecast data from two models (UMPL - ICM, Warsaw University and HIRLAM - SMHI Norrköping) with the measurements made in 2000 and 2001 at the open sea near the Hel Peninsula from the automatic buoy MIG-1. The agreement of both models with the experimental data is quite good.
Źródło:
Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku; 2001, 28, 2; 109-118
1230-7424
2450-5536
Pojawia się w:
Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Verification of numerical forecast of atmospheric parameters near the Polish coast using the data from MIG-1 buoy
Autorzy:
Kałas, M.
Staśkiewicz, A.
Szefler, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/972866.pdf
Data publikacji:
2001
Wydawca:
Instytut Morski w Gdańsku
Tematy:
forecast
MIG-1 buoy
Opis:
The paper presents results of comparison of the numerical weather forecast data from two models (UMPL - ICM, Warsaw University and HIRLAM - SMHI Norrköping) with the measurements made in 2000 and 2001 at the open sea near the Hel Peninsula from the automatic buoy MIG-1. The agreement of both models with the experimental data is quite good.
Źródło:
Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku; 2001, 28, 2; 109-118
1230-7424
2450-5536
Pojawia się w:
Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Marine forecast system in maritime institute for aiding salvage actions and economical activities in the sea. Present state of development
Autorzy:
Kałas, M.
Staśkiewicz, A.
Gajewski, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1920535.pdf
Data publikacji:
2000
Wydawca:
Instytut Morski w Gdańsku
Tematy:
forecast
marine environment
sea
Opis:
In the paper the system of digital marine forecast, covering the Polish area of the Baltic Sea, developed in the Department of Operational Oceanography, Maritime Institute, for the needs of rescue services and marine administration, is described. The present system uses data from different Polish and foreign operational centres, and generates its own forecast, as it is in the case of wind waves or object drift. The combined forecast is processed into the formats demanded by the services and is available also in Internet at Department 's web site.
Źródło:
Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku; 2000, 27, 2; 51-65
1230-7424
2450-5536
Pojawia się w:
Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the sales of console games for the Italian market
Autorzy:
Rossetti, Renato
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425197.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
exponential smoothing
SARIMA
forecast
videogames
Opis:
In videogames industry, time series analysis can be very useful in determining the general evolution and behaviour of the market dynamics. These methods are applicable to any time series forecasting problem, regardless of the application sector. This article discusses time series approaches to forecast the sales of console games for the Italian market. In particular two univariate techniques were evaluated, exponential smoothing and the SARIMA technique. The aim is to exploit the capabilities of these statistical methods in order to have a comparison of the results and to choose the most accurate model through an ex-post evaluation. Using monthly time-series data from November 2005 to September 2017, the selection of the most suitable model was indicated by the smallest value of the measures of accuracy (MAPE, sMAPE, RMSE) for the out-of-sample observations regarding the period October 2017-September 2018. The implementation of the models was done using Forecast PRO and Gretl. The time series involved is related to the sales regarding the first party manufacturers of consoles and handhelds (Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo).
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2019, 23, 3; 76-96
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Kadry kwalifikowane na rynku pracy. Najcenniejszy zasób współczesnych gospodarek
Autorzy:
Marszowski, Ryszard
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2158519.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Instytut Studiów Międzynarodowych i Edukacji Humanum
Tematy:
qualified staff
economy
work
forecast
Opis:
On the basis of total assessments, analyzes, diagnoses and forecasts presented in the paper, it should be recognized that human resources - in particular qualified staff – are the most valuable resource of modern economies. Changes that occur significantly may decrease this asset. The key determinant shaping indicated threat is reversal of the age pyramid and associated: demographic depression and population aging. So how to shape solutions in these realities, thanks to which you can limit effects of changes taking place and counteract them? In the context of human resources, it seems that it is inevitable first and foremost to anticipate changes and to respond to it constantly.
Źródło:
Społeczeństwo i Edukacja. Międzynarodowe Studia Humanistyczne; 2018, 2(29); 183-205
1898-0171
Pojawia się w:
Społeczeństwo i Edukacja. Międzynarodowe Studia Humanistyczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
TRAFNOŚĆ PROGNOZ W STOSUNKU DO OCEN W TEŚCIE KONIUNKTURY PRZEMYSŁOWEJ GUS
ACCURACY OF FORECASTS RELATIVE TO EVALUATIONS IN THE CSO INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS CYCLE TEST
Autorzy:
Zatoń, Wojciech
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/452804.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
test koniunktury
trafność prognoz
horyzont prognozy
business cycle test
forecast accuracy
forecast horizon
Opis:
W artykule przeprowadzono ocenę trafności prognoz testu koniunktury przemysłowej GUS w odniesieniu do produkcji, portfela zamówień i sytuacji finansowej. Porównane zostały formułowane przez przedsiębiorców prognozy dotyczące tych cech z ich późniejszymi ocenami bieżącymi. Wyniki wskazują, że przedsiębiorcy odpowiadając na pytanie o prognozy produkcji i portfela zamówień w najbliższych trzech miesiącach, koncentrują się głównie na najbliższych dwóch miesiącach. Prognozy są systematycznie przeszacowywane, ich przeciętna trafność jest umiarkowana, ale wykazuje wyraźną poprawę w ostatnich latach.
The study is the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the CSO industrial business cycle test. Detailed research concerns the accuracy of the forecasts formulated in relation to the production, stock of orders and financial situation. The forecasts of these features formulated by the entrepreneurs are compared to their subsequent evaluations of current states. The results indicate that entrepreneurs responding to the question about forecast of production and stock of orders in the next three months focus mainly on the next two months. The forecasts are generally overestimated. Their average accuracy is moderate but shows a marked improvement in recent years.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2015, 16, 4; 261-270
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Energy-Aware WiFi Network Selection via Forecasting Energy Consumption
Autorzy:
Abdrabou, Atef
Darwish, Mohamed
Dalao, Ahmed
AlKaabi, Mohammed
Abutaqiya, Mahmoud
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/226857.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
energy
consumption
forecast
WiFi
IoT
Opis:
Covering a wide area by a large number of WiFi networks is anticipated to become very popular with Internet-of-things (IoT) and initiatives such as smart cities. Such network configuration is normally realized through deploying a large number of access points (APs) with overlapped coverage. However, the imbalanced traffic load distribution among different APs affects the energy consumption of a WiFi device if it is associated to a loaded AP. This research work aims at predicting the communication-related energy that shall be consumed by a WiFi device if it transferred some amount of data through a certain selected AP. In this paper, a forecast of the Energy consumption is proposed to be obtained using an algorithm that is supported by a mathematical model. Consequently, the proposed algorithm can automatically select the best WiFi network (best AP) that the WiFi device can connect to in order to minimize energy consumption. The proposed algorithm is experimentally validated in a realistic lab setting. The observed performance indicates that the algorithm can provide an accurate forecast to the energy that shall be consumed by a WiFi transceiver in sending some amount of data via a specific AP.
Źródło:
International Journal of Electronics and Telecommunications; 2020, 66, 2; 339-345
2300-1933
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Electronics and Telecommunications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting Income Distributions of Households in Poland on the Basis of Markov Chains
Prognozowanie rozkładów dochodów gospodarstw domowych w Polsce w oparciu o łańcuchy Markowa
Autorzy:
Czajkowski, Andrzej
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/905030.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
income distributions
Markov chains
forecast
Opis:
In order to forecast income distributions of population, we can make use of, among others, stochastic processes. These processes can be used to determine probabilities of transition of households from one income class to another. The paper attempts to present an application of homogenous Markov chains in the process of forecasting the income structure of six socio-economic groups of population in Poland for the years 2004, 2006 and 2008. Forecasts are based on results of individual household budgets surveys.
Do prognozowania rozkładów dochodów ludności wykorzystywane być mogą m. in. procesy stochastyczne służące do określania wielkości prawdopodobieństw przejścia gospodarstw domowych z określonej grupy dochodowej do innej. W opracowaniu podjęto próbę wykorzystania jednorodnych łańcuchów Markowa do sporządzania prognoz struktury dochodów sześciu grup społeczno-ekonomicznych ludności w Polsce dla lat 2004, 2006 i 2008. Podstawę szacunków stanowiły wyniki badań budżetów indywidualnych gospodarstw domowych.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2009, 225
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 298

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