Methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carries by lorries in POland up to the year 2020 (Part II)

Discussed methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers have been presented in two parts. In first part has been given forecast of freight road transport volumes up to the year 2020. Estimated structure of the fleet in the initial period of the forecast. Variant forecast of the fleet size and its structure according to categories and age. In this part has been given forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries. When forecasting the scale of demand for individual energy carriers by lorries in a given year, the following issues were taken into account: estimated numbers of vehicles registered according to categories and production periods, an estimated average consumption offuels per 100 km of mileage according to specified categories of vehicles and their production periods, estimated average annual mileages of vehicles according to categories and production periods. A drop in the use of petrol by lorries in Poland is expected to have taken place by the year 2020. The estimated forecast level amounts to 315-325 Gg. The use of petrol in 2020 would decrease to the level of 55-57% of the consumption in the initial period of the forecast. An estimated increase in the demand for diesel fuels by lorries is expected to take place in Poland in 2020 and it is envisaged to reach the level of 5848-7680 Gg, which compared to the consumption in the initial period of the forecast, would be tantamount to an increase dynamics of 170-223%. The demand for LPG fuels by lorries in 2020 should amount to 264-287 Gg, (an increase of 147-160% compared to the initial period of the forecast). The demand for CNG fuel by lorries in 2020 would reach 61-68 Gg.