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    Wyświetlanie 1-9 z 9
    Tytuł:
    Climate projections in the Hornsund area, Southern Spitsbergen
    Autorzy:
    Osuch, Marzena
    Wawrzyniak, Tomasz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2046808.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    Arctic
    climate change
    climate projections
    Svalbard
    Źródło:
    Polish Polar Research; 2016, 37, 3; 379-402
    0138-0338
    2081-8262
    Pojawia się w:
    Polish Polar Research
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100
    Autorzy:
    Błażejczyk, Krzysztof
    Baranowski, Jarosław
    Błażejczyk, Anna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1051540.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
    Tematy:
    climate related diseases
    Polska
    SRES
    climate projections
    CRD projections
    Opis:
    The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD) in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality), influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1) statistical modelling basing on past data and 2) projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1) to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.
    Źródło:
    Quaestiones Geographicae; 2018, 37, 1; 23-36
    0137-477X
    2081-6383
    Pojawia się w:
    Quaestiones Geographicae
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Classification by multiple regression - a new approach towards the classification of extremes
    Autorzy:
    Enke, W.
    Spekat, A.
    Kreienkamp, F.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108605.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    empirical-statistical downscaling
    regression analysis
    climate analysis
    climate projections
    meteorological extremes
    Opis:
    There are numerous algorithmic classification methods that attempt to address the connections between different scales of the atmosphere, such as EOFs, clustering, and neural nets. However, their relative strength lies in the description of the mean conditions, whereas extremes are poorly covered by them. A novel approach towards the identification of linkages between large-scale atmospheric fields and local extremes of meteorological parameters is presented in this paper. The principle is that a small number of objectively selected fields can be used to circumscribe a local meteorological parameter by way of regression. For each day, the regression coefficients form a kind of pattern which is used for a classification based on similarity. As it turns out, several classes are generated which contain days that constitute extreme atmospheric conditions and from which local meteorological parameters can be computed, yielding an indirect way of determining these local extremes just from large-scale information. The range of applications is large. (i) Not only local meteorological parameters can be subjected to such a regression based classification procedure. It can be extended to extreme indicators, such as threshold exceedances, yielding on the one hand the relevant atmospheric fields to describe those indicators, and on the other hand grouping days with “favourable atmospheric conditions”. This approach can be further extended by investigating networks of measurement stations from a region and describing, e.g., the probability for threshold exceedances at a given percentage of the network. (ii) The method can not only be used as a filtering tool to supply days in the current climate with extreme conditions, identified in an objective way. The method can be applied to climate model projections, using the previously found parameter-specific combinations of atmospheric fields. From those fields, as they constitute the modelled future climate, local time series can be generated which are then analysed with respect to the frequency and magnitude of future extremes. The method has sensitivities (i) due to the degree to which there are connections between large-scale fields and local meteorological parameters (measured, e.g., by the correlation) and (ii) due to the varying quality of the different fields (geopotential, temperature, humidity etc.) projected by the climate model.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2016, 4, 1; 25-39
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Climate analysis as a basis for a sustainable water management at the Lusatian Neisse
    Autorzy:
    Pluntke, T.
    Schwarzak, S.
    Kuhn, K.
    Lünich, K.
    Adynkiewicz-Piragas, M.
    Otop, I.
    Miszuk, B.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108580.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate analysis
    water availability
    climate projections
    trend analysis
    Polish-Saxon border region
    Opis:
    Current and future climate conditions and their impact on water balance, ecosystems, air quality and bio and agro-climatology were investigated in the region of the Lusatian Neisse within the two EU -projects – NEYMO and KLAPS. This work focuses on the climate analysis of the region at the German-Polish border as a preliminary step for a hydrological analysis of current and future conditions. Observed climatological data were processed and analysed using the indicators air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, potential evapotranspiration and the climatic water balance (CWB). The latter defines the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and is a measure for the climatological water availability in the region. Observations were used to statistically downscale data from Global Circulation Models under various scenarios regarding greenhouse gas emissions (A1B, RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) and applying the WETTREG-method for regionalization. In total, 50 climate projections for periods up until the end of the 21st century were analysed, with the application of the mentioned indicators. For the period 1971-2010, increasing trends of temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and potential evapotranspiration were found. This leads to a reduced CWB in the summer half-year (SHY), which could be partly compensated by an increase in the winter half-year (WHY). Trends of temperature, sunshine duration and potential evapotranspiration remain positive for the far future (2071-2100), but precipitation decreases. These climatic conditions aggravate water availability, especially in the SHY. Impacts on water management are very probable and were therefore further investigated in the NEY MO project that applied hydrological models.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2016, 4, 1; 3-11
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Glebowo-wodne uwarunkowania prowadzenia gospodarki leśnej w perspektywie zmian klimatu
    Soil-water determinants of forest management in the perspective of climate change
    Autorzy:
    Boczoń, A.
    Kowalska, A.
    Gawryś, R.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/986699.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    lesnictwo
    gospodarka lesna
    zmiany klimatyczne
    zmiany warunkow srodowiska
    warunki glebowo-wodne
    drzewostany
    woda glebowa
    dostepnosc wody
    susza glebowa
    drought
    soil water
    climate projections
    Opis:
    The paper reviews the projected impacts of climate change on forest stands in relation to the local conditions in Poland. One of the most urgent challenges for foresters in Central Europe is adapting the stands to the effects of climate change. Warming of the climate will lead to limited soil water availability to forest stands and to the increasing risk of long−term drought. The threatof soil drought depends on the meteorological conditions, but also on the ability of the soil to retain water. In Poland, forests grow mainly on poor sandy soils with low water retention capacity. Additionally, relatively small precipitation – less than 600 mm per year – occurs in most areas of Poland and long−term periods without precipitation are more and more frequent. In 2015, drought affected large area of the country. The forests are severely exposed to the stress of drought caused by climate change. Polish forests ared comprised of rather small number of tree species. It is considered that drought will threaten the biodiversity of forests. Of all tree species in Poland, Scots pine has the best ability to survive drought and therefore it can be expected that the share of pine in the stands will increase in the future. Pedunculate oak, which is the most common deciduous species in Poland, may retreat because of its vulnerability to drought. Forest management should aim at the adaptation of stands to climate change. The proportion of species resistant to drought stress should be increased. The thinning of forest stand can help to reduce damage. A smaller number of trees contributes to lower interception and consequently increases the amount of water reaching the soil. In some opinions the reduction in the number of trees and the density of the canopy reduces evapotranspiration, but not in Scots pine stands.
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2017, 161, 09; 763-771
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Consequences of climate change for spatial organization of Poland
    Autorzy:
    Starkel, Leszek
    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/703436.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2008
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    climate change
    climate change impacts
    spatial organization
    projections
    Opis:
    Climate changes have been observed in Poland the recent decades and more pronounced climate changes are projected for the future. They impact on the natural and built environment of Poland, which has been shaped by both circulation of energy and matter, typical for moderate latitudes, and the properties of the landscape, inherited from the geological past. In the present paper, consequences of climate change (corresponding to model-based projections) for spatial organization of Poland have been reviewed.
    Źródło:
    Nauka; 2008, 1
    1231-8515
    Pojawia się w:
    Nauka
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Impacts of global climate change
    Autorzy:
    Kundzewicz, Zbiniew W.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/703434.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2008
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    climate change
    climate change impacts
    greenhouse effect
    mitigation
    projections
    Opis:
    The warming of the climate of the Earth has been unequivocal, most notably due to the mancaused increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, leading to intensification of the greenhouse effect. Projections for the future explain that we are commited to further, possibly even more intense, warming, whose rate depends on the scenario of socio-economic development and effective climate change mitigation policy. If the global emissions grow in uncontrolled way and carbon sequestration potential decreases, the warming can attain a dangerous dimension. Global warming induces change in all variables of hydroclimatic systems. As demonstrated in the present contribution, the impacts of global climat change – both advantageous and (more often) adverse can be noted in all regions of the globe and in all systems and sectors, some of which are particularly vulnerable. Yet, many of these impacts can be avoided, reduced, or delayed, by effective climate change mitigation.
    Źródło:
    Nauka; 2008, 1
    1231-8515
    Pojawia się w:
    Nauka
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Projections of changes in heavy precipitation in the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains
    Autorzy:
    Pińskwar, I.
    Kundzewicz, Z. W.
    Choryński, A.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108474.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    heavy precipitation
    climate models
    projections
    delta-change method
    Polska
    Opis:
    Heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation events in the Tatra Mountains and their northern foothills may cause floods that propagate downstream in the Vistula River and inundate large areas of Poland. In a warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than they are today, hence the flood risk potential is likely to grow. Therefore, assessment of these future changes and adaptation to changes in flood risk are of considerable interest and importance. In this study, seven global climate models were used to get insight into a range of changes in the characteristics of mean and heavy precipitation: this was done for two climate scenarios – A1B and A2 of the SRES family. With the help of the so-called delta-change method and based on responses from global climate models, projections were made for 11 precipitation stations in the region. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sums of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm per day. It was found that all GCM models under examination projected an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in the future time horizon studied here (2080-2100).
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2017, 5, 2; 21-30
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset
    Autorzy:
    Danilovich, Irina
    Geyer, Beate
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2014153.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    meteorological observations
    projections
    scenario
    air temperature
    precipitation
    snow
    wind
    Opis:
    This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2021, 9, 1-2; 1-30
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-9 z 9

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