Current and future climate conditions and their impact on water balance, ecosystems, air quality and bio and
agro-climatology were investigated in the region of the Lusatian Neisse within the two EU -projects – NEYMO
and KLAPS. This work focuses on the climate analysis of the region at the German-Polish border as a preliminary
step for a hydrological analysis of current and future conditions.
Observed climatological data were processed and analysed using the indicators air temperature, precipitation, sunshine
duration, potential evapotranspiration and the climatic water balance (CWB). The latter defines the difference
between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and is a measure for the climatological water availability in
the region. Observations were used to statistically downscale data from Global Circulation Models under various
scenarios regarding greenhouse gas emissions (A1B, RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) and applying the WETTREG-method for
regionalization. In total, 50 climate projections for periods up until the end of the 21st century were analysed, with the
application of the mentioned indicators.
For the period 1971-2010, increasing trends of temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and potential evapotranspiration
were found. This leads to a reduced CWB in the summer half-year (SHY), which could be partly
compensated by an increase in the winter half-year (WHY). Trends of temperature, sunshine duration and potential
evapotranspiration remain positive for the far future (2071-2100), but precipitation decreases. These climatic conditions
aggravate water availability, especially in the SHY. Impacts on water management are very probable and were
therefore further investigated in the NEY MO project that applied hydrological models.
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