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Tytuł:
About robust detection of a breakdown point in selected linear regression models
O odpornym wykrywaniu punktu zmiany tendencji w wybranych modelach regresji liniowej
Autorzy:
Kosiorowski, Daniel
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907040.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
change-point
regression depth
schwarz information criterion
Opis:
In this paper an approach appealing to a regression depth concept is applied to a robust detection of points (moments) of a regression coefficients change. The propositions are compared with propositions based on Schwarz information criterion and discussed in the context of linear mixed models.
W referacie przedstawiamy pewne propozycje dotyczące odpornego wykrywania punktu (chwili), w którym następuje zmiana współczynników regresji liniowej. Propozycje odwołują się do koncepcji głębi regresyjnej przedstawionej przez Rousseeuw i Hubert (1998). Własności proponowanego podejścia porównujemy z podejściem wykorzystującym kryterium informacyjne Schwarza oraz dyskutujemy je w kontekście liniowych modeli mieszanych.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2008, 216
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Global and local trend analysis and change-point analysis of selected financial and market indices
Autorzy:
Ballova, Dominika
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/384353.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Przemysłowy Instytut Automatyki i Pomiarów
Tematy:
trend analysis
change-point analysis
cluster analysis
Opis:
From the macroeconomic point of view, the stock index is the best indicator of the behavior of the stock market. Stock indices fulfill different functions. One of their most important functions is to observe developments of the stock market situation. Therefore, it is crucial to describe the long-term development of indices and also to find moments of abrupt changes. Another interesting aspect is to find those indices that have evolved in a similar way over time. In this article, using trend analysis, we will uncover the global evolution of selected indices. After evaluating the global trend in the series we compare the results with local trend analysis. Other goal is to detect the moments in which this development suddenly changed using the change-point analysis. By means of cluster analysis, we find those indices that are most similar in long-term development. In each analysis, we select the most appropriate methods and compare their results.
Źródło:
Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems; 2019, 13, 3; 56-63
1897-8649
2080-2145
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Change Point Determination in Audio Data Using Auditory Features
Autorzy:
Maka, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/226762.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
audio change point detection
auditory features
gammatone filter bank
Opis:
The study is aimed to investigate the properties of auditory-based features for audio change point detection process. In the performed analysis, two popular techniques have been used: a metric-based approach and the ∆BIC scheme. The efficiency of the change point detection process depends on the type and size of the feature space. Therefore, we have compared two auditory-based feature sets (MFCC and GTEAD) in both change point detection schemes. We have proposed a new technique based on multiscale analysis to determine the content change in the audio data. The comparison of the two typical change point detection techniques with two different feature spaces has been performed on the set of acoustical scenes with single change point. As the results show, the accuracy of the detected positions depends on the feature type, feature space dimensionality, detection technique and the type of audio data. In case of the ∆BIC approach, the better accuracy has been obtained for MFCC feature space in the most cases. However, the change point detection with this feature results in a lower detection ratio in comparison to the GTEAD feature. Using the same criteria as for ∆BIC, the proposed multiscale metric-based technique has been executed. In such case, the use of the GTEAD feature space has led to better accuracy. We have shown that the proposed multiscale change point detection scheme is competitive to the ∆BIC scheme with the MFCC feature space.
Źródło:
International Journal of Electronics and Telecommunications; 2015, 61, 2; 185-190
2300-1933
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Electronics and Telecommunications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Advanced methods of earnings management: monotonic trends and change-points under spotlight in the Visegrad countries
Autorzy:
Kliestik, Tomas
Valaskova, Katarina
Nica, Elvira
Kovacova, Maria
Lazaroiu, George
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19233520.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
business finance
change-point
earnings management
monotonic trend
European countries
Opis:
Research background: Enterprises manage earnings in an effort to balance their profit fluctuations to provide increasingly consistent earnings in every reporting period. Earnings management is legal and very effective method of accounting techniques and may be used to obtain specific objectives of the enterprises involving the manipulation of accruals. Therefore, there is a need to analyze it in the context of group of countries, while the issue of their detection in the new ways appears.  Purpose of the article: The analysis of annual earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of 5,640 enterprises from the Visegrad Four during the period 2009-2018 confirms that the development of earnings management in these countries is not a randomness. Thus, the aim of this article is to determine the existence of positive trend in earnings management and to detect the change-point in its development for each Visegrad country. Methods: Grubbs test, Mann-Kendall trend test and Buishand test were used as appropriate statistical methods. Mann-Kendall test identifies significant monotonic trend occurrence in earnings manipulation in every country. Buishand test indicates significant years, which divides the development of EBIT into two homogenous groups with individual central lines. Findings & Value added: Based on the statistical analysis applied, we rejected randomness in the managing of earning, but we determined the trend of its increasing. The positive earnings manipulation was not homogenous in the analyzed period, however, a change-point was defined. Year 2014 was identified as a break-point for Slovak, Polish and Hungarian enterprises considering the earnings manipulation. Year 2013 was detected as a change-point in Czech enterprises. The methodical approach used may be very helpful for researchers from other countries to determine, detect and understand earnings management as well as for the investors to make decisions based on a specificities of an individual country.
Źródło:
Oeconomia Copernicana; 2020, 11, 2; 371-400
2083-1277
Pojawia się w:
Oeconomia Copernicana
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Bayesian significance test of change for correlated observations
Autorzy:
Slama, Abdeldjalil
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/729738.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Wydział Matematyki, Informatyki i Ekonometrii
Tematy:
autoregressive model
change point
HPD region sets
p-value
Gibbs sampler
Opis:
This paper presents a Bayesian significance test for a change in mean when observations are not independent. Using a noninformative prior, a unconditional test based on the highest posterior density credible set is determined. From a Gibbs sampler simulation study the effect of correlation on the performance of the Bayesian significance test derived under the assumption of no correlation is examined. This paper is a generalization of earlier studies by KIM (1991) to not independent observations.
Źródło:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics; 2014, 34, 1-2; 51-62
1509-9423
Pojawia się w:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Semi-parametric modification of cumulative sum algorithms for the change-point detection of non-Gaussian sequences
Autorzy:
Zabolotnii, S. W
Warsza, Z. L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/114188.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
change point
CUSUM algorithm
non-Gaussian sequence
stochastic polynomial
high order statistics
Opis:
The expansion of logarithm likelihood ratio in the stochastic series to find the sequential change-point detection of non-Gaussian sequences is used. The moment criteria of the minimum of upper limit error probabilities sum to find the expansion coefficients is applied. The proposed method is a semi-parametric type of cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm which needs of higher-order statistics. Results show that polynomial algorithms are more effective in comparison with similar non-parametric procedures.
Źródło:
Measurement Automation Monitoring; 2015, 61, 12; 532-534
2450-2855
Pojawia się w:
Measurement Automation Monitoring
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
An Application of Bootstrapping for CUSUM Test in Mean Change-Point Model and Forecasting
Autorzy:
Rois, Rumana
Prima, Afsana Tasnim
Shanta, Munia Afroza
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1075648.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Tematy:
AMOC model
CUSUM test
asymptotic critical value
bootstrap critical value
change-point
extreme value distribution
Opis:
Application of change-point analysis increases as more data sets are collected in a wide variety of fields. Detection of change-point is useful in modeling and prediction of time series, especially, it has a significant impact on forecasting. The critical value of a test is required to conduct that test in detecting change-point. The calculation of the critical values is based on the distributional asymptotics of the test statistics under the null hypothesis. Cumulative sum (CUSUM) test is a popular change-point test in location model. The convergence of the limit distribution of the CUSUM test statistic is rather slow. Antoch and Hušková (2001) suggested that the critical value of the permutation test, a test based on the bootstrap principle, performs better than the asymptotic critical value of CUSUM test in location model. Inspired by them, we consider a change in the mean with i.i.d. errors to evaluate the performance of the bootstrap and the asymptotic critical values of CUSUM test to the simulated and real data. We used the monthly average rainfall in Cumilla, a district in Bangladesh, from 1948 to 2013 as a real data. We also motivated to develop a forecasting model taking into accout of the detected change-point. The result demonstrates that the performance of the bootstrap critical value of CUSUM test is better than the asymptotic one for both the simulated and real data. Moreover, the accuracy of the monthly average rainfall forecasting in Cumilla is improved by considering the valid change-point in modeling.
Źródło:
World Scientific News; 2019, 125; 217-229
2392-2192
Pojawia się w:
World Scientific News
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Distribution Approximations for Cusum and Cusumsq Statistics
Autorzy:
Habibi, Reza
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/465719.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
Beta approximated
Change point
Cumulative sum
Cumulative sum of squares Multivariate normal
Response surface regression
Opis:
The cumulative sum (cusum) is an important statistics in testing for a change point. This paper is concerned with the distribution approximations to the cusum statistic under the null and alternative hypotheses. We also consider distribution approximations for the cumulative sum of squares (cusumsq) test statistics. Finally, a discussion section is given.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2010, 11, 3; 158-168
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Ocean fronts detection over the Bay of Bengal using changepoint algorithms - A non-parametric approach
Autorzy:
Reddem, V.S.
Muthalagu, R.
Bekkam, V.R.
Eluri, P.R.R.
Jampana, V.
Nimit, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2078823.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
ocean front
detection
satellite image
change point analysis
algorithm
advanced very high resolution radiometer
Bengal Bay
Opis:
Oceanic fronts are regions over the oceans where a significant change in the characteristics of the water masses is observed. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery over the Bay of Bengal shows regions that are populated by frontal structures. Over the Bay of Bengal, some of the strongest gradients in temperature and salinity are observed. In recent years, there has been a tremendous growth in the availability of satellite imagery and the necessity of automated fast detection of the frontal features is needed for services like potential fishing zones over open oceans. In this article, an algorithm to infer oceanic fronts over the Bay of Bengal is described using changepoint analysis. The changepoint algorithm is combined in a novel way with a contextual median filter to detect frontal features in AVHRR imagery. The changepoint analysis is a non-parametric technique that does not put thresholds on the gradients of brightness temperatures of the satellite imagery. In the open oceans, the gradients of temperature and salinity are not sharp and changepoint analysis is found to be a useful complementary technique to the existing front detecting methods when combined with contextual median filters.
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2021, 63, 4; 438-477
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On a book 'Financial statistics and mathematical finance. Methods, models and applications.' by Ansgar Steland
Autorzy:
Szajowski, Krzysztof J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/747467.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Matematyczne
Tematy:
Applications of statistics
Actuarial sciences
Financial mathematics
Statistical methods in mathematical finance
Econometrics
Change point detection
Opis:
This book presents a careful and comprehensive introduction to some of the most important mathematical topics required for a thorough understanding of financial markets and the quantitative methods used to manage the assets there. The author has focused on arbitrage theory for pricing contingent claims and  statistical models and methods to analyze data from financial markets. It is quit new idea to combine the data analysis methods for mathematical models of founds, options and other derivatives. In contrast to other studies devoted to the modeling of economic phenomena can be found in the reflection of the author's experience in the study of phenomena on the capital markets. Particularly valuable are the chapters that are not in the understanding of other specialists and for special statistical procedures as the basis for the creation of methods of technical analysis trading on financial markets. The results are provided in detail, although usually not in their most general form. The presentation allows for relatively easy to learn the basic techniques of modeling for those coming to the subject for the first time. This effect is get by keeping  notations as elementary as possible. Each part of material is enriched with notes and comments on selected references, which may complement the presented material.  It is addressed to interdisciplinary graduate/undergraduate students and to interdisciplinary young researchers. Some chapters are available to Bachelor students who have passed introductory courses in probability calculus and statistics.
Źródło:
Mathematica Applicanda; 2016, 44, 2
1730-2668
2299-4009
Pojawia się w:
Mathematica Applicanda
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wstępna analiza parametrów termicznych zestawu szybowego wypełnionego materiałem fazowo zmiennym
Preliminary analysys of the thermal properties of glazing unit filled with phase change material
Autorzy:
Wieprzkowicz, A.
Heim, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/362453.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Instytut Fizyki Budowli Katarzyna i Piotr Klemm
Tematy:
promieniowanie słoneczne
przemiana fazowa
temperatury przemian
magazynowanie ciepła
dynamika cieplna
solar radiation
phase transformation
change point
heat storage
thermal dynamics
Opis:
W pracy przedstawiono wyniki analiz numerycznych dynamiki cieplnej wybranych rodzajów oszklenia modyfikowanych materiałem fazowo-zmiennym (MFZ). Analizy wykonano dla dwóch zestawów danych meteorologicznych, charakterystycznych dla klimatu umiarkowanego oraz podzwrotnikowego oraz trzech orientacji przegrody względem stron świata. W zależności od lokalizacji zdefiniowano 2 rozwiązania techniczne przegrody. Zaproponowano 3 kryteria determinujące żądane temperatury przemiany fazowej MFZ wypełniającego jedną z przestrzenni międzyszybowych. Na podstawie wyników analiz numerycznych wyznaczono wymagane temperatury oraz dobrano dostępne materiały z grupy parafin. Wybrane materiały stanowią niskotemperaturowe magazyny ciepła w zakresie temperatur przemiany 18-21°C w przypadku doboru dla okresu zimowego oraz 25-31°C (35°C dla Santiago) w przypadku analiz przeprowadzonych dla lata.
The paper presents results of numerical analysis of thermal dynamics of selected types of glazing modified with phase-change material (PCM). The analyzes were performed for two sets of meteorological data, typical for the moderate and subtropical climate, and the three orientations of façade. Depending on the location, two technical solutions were defined. Three criteria have been proposed to determine the most efficient phase transition temperature of PCM filling one of the window cavities. Based on the results of numerical analysis, the required temperatures were determined and materials from the paraffin group were selected. Selected materials are low temperature heat stores with a transition temperature of 18-21°C for winter season and 25-31°C (35°C for Santiago) for summer analyzes.
Źródło:
Fizyka Budowli w Teorii i Praktyce; 2017, T. 9, nr 1, 1; 39-44
1734-4891
Pojawia się w:
Fizyka Budowli w Teorii i Praktyce
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends in Chhattisgarh State, Central India over the last 115 years
Przestrzenna i czasowa analiza tendencji zmian opadów w stanie Chhattisgarh w środkowych Indiach w ciągu ostatnich 115 lat
Autorzy:
Nema, M. K.
Khare, D.
Adamowski, J.
Chandniha, S. K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/292272.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
change point
gridded data
modified Mann–Kendall test
rainfall variability
trend analysis
analiza trendu
dane gridowe
punkt zwrotny
zmienność opadów
zmodyfikowany test Manna– Kendalla
Opis:
A quantitative and qualitative understanding of the anticipated climate-change-driven multi-scale spatio- -temporal shifts in precipitation and attendant river flows is crucial to the development of water resources management approaches capable of sustaining and even improving the ecological and socioeconomic viability of rainfed agricultural regions. A set of homogeneity tests for change point detection, non-parametric trend tests, and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to long-term gridded rainfall records of 27 newly formed districts in Chhattisgarh State, India. Illustrating the impacts of climate change, an analysis of spatial variability, multitemporal (monthly, seasonal, annual) trends and inter-annual variations in rainfall over the last 115 years (1901– 2015 mean 1360 mm·y–1) showed an overall decline in rainfall, with 1961 being a change point year (i.e., shift from rising to declining trend) for most districts in Chhattisgarh. Spatio-temporal variations in rainfall within the state of Chhattisgarh showed a coefficient of variation of 19.77%. Strong inter-annual and seasonal variability in regional rainfall were noted. These rainfall trend analyses may help predict future climate scenarios and thereby allow planning of effective and sustainable water resources management for the region.
Ilościowe i jakościowe rozpoznanie przewidywanych wielowymiarowych zmian opadów i towarzyszących im przepływów w rzekach spowodowanych zmianami klimatu jest decydujące dla rozwoju metod zarządzania zasobami wodnymi zdolnych utrzymać lub nawet usprawnić rentowność obszarów rolniczych zasilanych opadami. Zastosowano kilka testów jednorodności do wykrycia punktu zwrotnego, nieparametryczne testy trendu i estymator nachylenia Sena do analizy wieloletnich danych o opadach w 27 nowo utworzonych dystryktach stanu Chhattisgarh w Indiach. Ilustrując wpływ zmian klimatu, wyniki analizy przestrzennej zmienności, miesięcznych, sezonowych i rocznych trendów oraz zmienności między latami (1901–2015, średni opad 1360 mm·r–1) wykazały ogólne zmniejszenie ilości opadów w większości dystryktów stanu Chhattisgarh. Rok 1961 był punktem zwrotnym między rosnącym a malejącym trendem opadów. Współczynnik zmienności przestrzennej i czasowej opadów w stanie Chhattisgarh wynosił 19,77%. Zanotowano znaczną zmienność opadów między poszczególnymi latami i porami roku. Takie analizy trendów mogą być przydatne w przewidywaniu przyszłych scenariuszy klimatycznych, a w związku z tym – umożliwić wydajne i zrównoważone zarządzanie zasobami wodnymi regionu.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2018, 36; 117-128
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The concepts of Ludwik Fleck and their application to the eukaryotic cell cycle
Koncepcje Ludwika Flecka i ich zastosowanie do eukariotycznego cyklu komórkowego
Autorzy:
Stephen, Cooper
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/783471.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017-12-18
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Umiejętności
Tematy:
Ludwik Fleck
G0
G1
Restriction Point
Rate-Change Point
Eukaryotic Cell Cycle
Gene Expression in Cell Cycle
punkt restrukcyjny
punkt zmiany tempa wzrostu
eukariotyczny cykl komórkowy
ekspresja genu w cyklu komórkowym
Opis:
The concepts of Ludwik Fleck (1896–1961), a microbiologist, historian, and philosopher of medicine, can be used to analyze the conservative nature of scientific ideas. This is discussed and applied to ideas dominant in the understanding of the eukaryotic cell cycle. These are (a) the G1-phase restriction point as a regulatory element of the mammalian cell cycle, (b) the Rate Change Point proposed to exist in fission yeast, and (c) the proposal that a large number of genes are expressed in a cell-cycle-dependent manner. Fleck proposed that scientific ideas become fixed and difficult to change because criticisms of current and dominant models are either ignored or turned to support of the current model. The idea of a thought-collective leading to the stability of scientific ideas is a central theme of the theory of Ludwik Fleck.
Koncepcje Ludwika Flecka (1896–1961), mikrobiologa, historyka i filozofa medycyny, mogą być użyte do analizowania zjawiska skostnienia idei naukowych. Zagadnienie to omówiono i zastosowano do dominujących koncepcji w rozumieniu cyklu podziału komórek eukariotycznych. Są to: (a) punkt kontrolny fazy G1 (tzw. punkt restrykcyjny) jako element regulacyjny cyklu komórkowego u ssaków; (b) punkt zmiany tempa wzrostu komórek mający występować u drożdży rozszczepkowych (Schizosaccharomyces pombe) oraz (c) postulat, że ekspresja znacznej liczby genów jest zależna od fazy cyklu komórkowego. Fleck zaproponował, że idee naukowe utrwalają się i trudno je zmienić, ponieważ krytyka aktualnych i dominujących modeli jest albo ignorowana, albo przemieniana na poparcie aktualnie obowiązującego modelu. Idea „kolektywu myślowego”, prowadząca do stabilizacji idei naukowych, jest centralnym tematem teorii Ludwika Flecka.
Źródło:
Studia Historiae Scientiarum; 2017, 16; 335-364
2451-3202
Pojawia się w:
Studia Historiae Scientiarum
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
GNSS positioning error change-point detection in GNSS Positioning Performance Modelling
Autorzy:
Filić, M.
Filjar, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/117469.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)
positioning
Navigation and Timing (PNT)
GNSS Positioning Performance Modelling
GNSS Positioning Error Change-point Detection
GNSS Positioning Performance
GNSS Resilience
GNSS Utilisation Risk Mitigation
GNSS Positioning Performance Degradation
Opis:
Provision of uninterrupted and robust Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services is essential task of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) as an enabling technology for numerous technology and socio-economic applications, a cornerstone of the modern civilisation, a public goods, and an essential component of a national infrastructure. GNSS resilience may be accomplished only with complete understanding of the causes of GNSS positioning performance disruptions and degradations, presented in a form of applications- and scenarios-related models. Here the application of change-point detection methods is proposed and demonstrated in a selected scenario of a fast-developing ionospheric storm’s impact on GNSS positioning performance, as a novel contribution to forecasting GNSS positioning performance model development and GNSS utilisation risk mitigation.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2019, 13, 3; 575-579
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Utilizing crash and violation data to assess unsafe driving actions
Autorzy:
Rezapour Mashhadi, M. M.
Wulff, S. S.
Ksaibati, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2140833.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Fundacja Centrum Badań Socjologicznych
Tematy:
No Improper driving
improper lane change
drive too fast for conditions
violation
citation
enforcement
Traffic Safety
road safety
Multinomial logistic regression
vehicle maneuver
point of impact
Opis:
Wyoming has one of the highest crash rates in the United States and a higher fatality rate than the U.S. average. These high rates result from many factors such as the high traffic through I-80 and the mountainous areas of Wyoming. This study employed two approaches to study contributory factors to crashes in the most hazardous interstate, I-80, in Wyoming by employing crash and citation data sets. Different factors may contribute to different driver actions so it is important to consider these crash causes separately. Thus, multiple logistic regression models were used in this study to examine the differences in crash-contributing factors for three driver actions: driving too fast for conditions, improper lane change, and no improper driving. These driver actions account for about 70% of all the crash causes on this interstate. The same violations as the two driver actions, improper lane change and driving too fast for conditions, account for 42% of all the crashes. The literature has indicated that previous violations can be used to predict future violations, and consequently crashes. Therefore, these violations were identified to detect the groups that are at higher risk of involvement in crashes. The analyses indicated that there are substantial differences across different driver actions for crash and violation data. For instance, not-dry-surface conditions increased the estimated odds of driving too fast for conditions 33 times while it decreased the risk of no improper driving by an estimated 250%. Crash severity, number of vehicles, vehicle maneuver, point of impact, driver condition, and speed compliance also impacted different driver actions differently. The results of violation analyses revealed that the interaction between types of vehicle and various variables were significant. For instance, nonresident truck drivers were more likely to violate all types of risky violations, which increased the estimated odds of crashes, compared with resident truck drivers. Recommendations based on the results are provided for policy makers to reduce high crash rate in the state.
Źródło:
Journal of Sustainable Development of Transport and Logistics; 2017, 2, 2; 35-46
2520-2979
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Sustainable Development of Transport and Logistics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 16

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