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Wyświetlanie 1-25 z 433
Tytuł:
A new mathematical model for analytical risk assessment and prediction in IT systems
Autorzy:
Fray, I. E.
Kurkowski, M.
Pejaś, J.
Maćków, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206238.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
risk analysis
risk analysis methods
formal model for risk analysis
Opis:
In this paper, we propose a new formal model to describe risk analysis and measurement process for IT systems. Our model complies with international standards and recommendations for non-profit organisations. The model accounts for solutions used in widely known and recommended risk analysis methods and provides for evaluation of efficacy of these solutions. A simple example illustrates the application of the proposed model for effective risk analysis of any IT system.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2012, 41, 1; 241-268
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza zagrożeń powodziowych w zlewni rzeki Piotrówki
Analysis of flood risk in Piotrówka river catchment
Autorzy:
Czamara, W.
Rosik-Dulewska, C.
Lipka, R.
Wiatkowski, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1819809.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
powódź
zlewnia rzeki
analiza zagrożeń
analysis risk
river catchment
Opis:
Zagrożenie powodziowe w Polsce występuje na powierzchni ponad 2 mln hektarów, obejmujących obszary dolinowe i przymorskie, stanowi to ok. 7% powierzchni kraju [1]. Na obszarze tym występują różne typy powodzi o różnym zakresie przestrzennym i czasie występowania. Najczęstszą przyczyną ich pojawiania się stanowią opady atmosferyczne, które w okresie (półroczach letnich) 1941÷2001 były przyczyną powstawania powodzi w 59% przypadkach. Ponadto w analizowanym okresie, w półroczach zimowych (od listopada do kwietnia), najczęściej pojawiały się powodzie sztormowe (13%), zatorowe (10%), roztopowe (8%), i roztopowo-opadowe (5%). Wystąpiły również awarie urządzeń wodnych, stanowiły one przyczynę 5% powodzi [15]. Powódź jest zjawiskiem przyrodniczym, występującym nieregularnie i na ogół ma gwałtowny przebieg [17]. Wyeliminowanie powodzi jest niemożliwe, gdyż nie można kontrolować takich zjawisk jak opad atmosferyczny, można natomiast ograniczyć wielkość strat spowodowanych powodzią [21]. Na zmniejszenie strat powodziowych można wpływać poprzez rozwiązania techniczne i nietechniczne. Ze względu na stosowane środki techniczne, ochronę przeciwpowodziową dzieli się na czynną i bierną [18, 22].
The flood risk in Poland is found on more than 2 millions hectare area (valley and coastal territory) that constitute about 7% of country area [1]. There are a various types of flooding that are characterized by diverse duration and spatial scope. The reason of flooding occurrence in 59% of cases are precipitation and this was a main reason of inundation in 1941 - 2001 season. The dissertation concerns issues of flood protection in Piotrówka river catchment localized in south Poland. In the last few years the increase of flood incidence can be observed in the considered catchment area. The range of floods also increases and, as a result, larger areas get flooded, which makes consequences of each flood more severe. The instances are flood from July 1997 when the streamflow reached Q = 53.2 m3/s and from 24th August 2005 when the maximum historical flow of Q = 64.9 m3/s was reached. Due to the fact that Piotrówka flows to the Czech Republic, it causes flood risk for both countries. In this paper the flood risk for Piotrówka river catchment has been identified by determining flooded areas and proposing a course of action to protect areas most vulnerable to a flood wave. Flood areas determined by the flow of the probability of occurrence of p = 1% (Qmax 1%) and maximal historical flow of the probability of occurrence of p = 0.04% (Qmax 0.04%) (that took place on 24th August 2005) have also been set. According to methodic given by Radczuk and al. [2001] the range of the areas has been established by determining the location of points of the highest water level on Włodzimierz Czamara, Czesława Rosik-Dulewska, Roman Lipka, Mirosław Wiatkowski 958 Środkowo-Pomorskie Towarzystwo Naukowe Ochrony Środowiska the cross-section of Piotrówka river channel. Flood area presented on topographic maps with the aid of Corel Draw 12.0 graphic program. Different options of flood protection, constituting proposals of solutions for the valley of Piotrówka river have been analyzed. What has been proposed: building of dikes, appropriate land use planning in flooded area, realisation of pondage program by the building of small reservoirs, but also agromelioration and reforestation in basin, introducing the Local Flood Warning System in order to increase of efficacy to warn off from flooding,implementation of mechanism of flood risk management according to Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks. These actions will enhance flood prevention and reduce negative consequences of inundation at the same time.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2009, Tom 11; 945-958
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk in systems with virtualization : test case analysis
Autorzy:
Stanclik, M.
Walkowiak, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069148.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
virtualization
risk analysis
threats
Opis:
The paper presents an approach to risk analysis of exemplar test case information systems. Authors point out the common practice to implement virtualization and put away security considerations for future[5]. The overview of virtualization techniques, focusing on server virtualization is given. Next, authors present risk analysis of exemplar GIS system. First of all identification of threats is taken out focusing on virtualization aspects, but it also includes common threats for both that could have a significant impact on safety when using a virtualization. The risk assessment for the test case system was performed using qualitative method. Assessment of the likelihood and magnitude of impact of identified risks was performed on the basis of the expert’s knowledge and experience. The obtained results were used to develop risk rankings, which indicate the risks that need special attention when designing and managing a virtual system.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2013, 4, 2; 249--258
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Level of Risk and Decision-making in Managing Industrial Activity with the Elimination of Negative Environmental Impacts
Autorzy:
Végsöová, Oľga
Straka, Martin
Kyšeľa, Kamil
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1811590.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
risk
danger
threat
risk analysis
risk assessment
Opis:
This paper focuses on the assessment of the degree of risk in all phases of extraction activities in a selected quarry in the Slovak Republic. The research part of the paper assesses the degree of risk resulting from the assessment of the threat, the probability of the threat and the consequence of an adverse event in extraction activities. The paper offers an important basis for decision-making in quarry management in order to eliminate the negative consequences of andesite mining on the environment, equipment and people. The extraction activity in the Kecerovský Lipovec quarry is assessed by this paper as low risk for two phases of extraction, specifically the preparation phase, and the extraction itself. The paper also highlights the importance of taking measures. Regarding the safety criteria in the Kecerovský Lipovec quarry, it is possible, based on the results of the analysis and evaluation, to consider the quarry to be safe. However, a condition for this is the necessary expert training of workers in all activities performed while working in the quarry. Here, the need for personnel to strictly adhere to the set standards for extraction activities is of prime importance. This finding confirms the above that the aim of diagnosing and naming the potential for adverse events in the extraction process must be to minimize risks, as their absolute exclusion is not possible due to the human factor and unforeseeable circumstances.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2020, Tom 22, cz. 1; 130-143
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Statistically (optimal) estimators of semivariance: A correction of Josephy-Aczel’s proof
Autorzy:
Fleischer, Karlheinz
Nietert, Bernhard
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/433944.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
risk analysis
semivariance
statistical estimation
Opis:
Semivariance is an intuitive risk measure because it concentrates on the shortfall below a target and not on total variation. To successfully use semivariance in practice, however, a statistical estimator of semivariance is needed; Josephy and Aczel provide such an estimator. Unfortunately, they have not correctly proven asymptotic unbiasedness and mean squared error consistency of their estimator since their proof contains a mistake. This paper corrects the computational mistake in Josephy-Aczel’s original proof and, that way, allows researchers and practitioners in the field of downside portfolio selection, hedging, downside asset pricing, risk measurement in a regulatory context, and performance measurement to work with a meaningfully specified downside measure.
Źródło:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny; 2019, 17 (23); 9-30
1644-6739
Pojawia się w:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis of Vegetables Marketing in Rwanda, A case of carrots and cabbages produced in Rubavu District and supplied across the country
Autorzy:
Kubwimana, Jean Jacques
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1892206.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-07-08
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
Risk, Risk analysis, Likert Scale, Marketing risk, Vegetable Marketing risk, and Risk Management.
Opis:
Due to the perishable nature and biological nature of the production process there is difficulty in scheduling the supply of vegetables to market demand. The vegetables are subjected to higher prices and quantity risks with changing consumers’ demand and production conditions. The core focus of this study was to reach, measure, and analyzing the marketing risk level of vegetables produced in Rubavu District, Rwanda. The study based on a survey of 90 vegetable sellers. At least 30 couple of wholesalers and middlemen visited Rubavu District to trade the vegetables for various retails. Primary data collected through structured questionnaires and secondary data sources used. A Five-point Likert associated with the bivariate analysis was used to rank the risk level while the full model of Linear Regression Analysis and factor analysis were used to identifier the majors’ factors associated with the risk in vegetable marketing in Rwanda. The mean score results derived based on Likert-Scales, indicated that “low seasonal product prices, weak market channels, poor logistics, and market communications, poor product handling and packaging, lack of storage and higher perishability’ identified to be the most important sources of risk. Therefore, the use of forwards’ contracts; getting market information, sell at crude prices due to perishability, contractual arrangements, maintaining good relationships and restoring the storage network system were of significant concerns for overcoming the recognized risks.  
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2020, 56, 2; 183-200
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
How to Estimate Security – Problem Analysis
Autorzy:
Pilarski, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1807890.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-06-30
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
security
estimation
risk analysis
political risk
forecasting
Opis:
Background: The article presents a method of estimating the security level which indicates how probable it is for a phenomenon to occur. Objectives: The author attempts to answer the question: How do we estimate security? Decision makers usually need percentage showing the probability of an incident taking place in the future. This information is needed in the first place, later decision makers can use more descriptive information. Methods: The research problem concerns the assessment of security using the estimation method. Depicting security in numbers is difficult, thus the descriptive method is also usually applied. The estimation method facilitates the assessment. It is helpful since it is partly done by calculation and partly by guessing or approximation. Based on a case study analysing whether a terrorist attack may occur, the author also used tools such as averaging expert predictions, scenario analysis and risk analysis. Results: This article provides a view on forecasting security, which results in a method of estimating the level of security. Conclusions: The author presents an approach which allows to initially estimate the security level of the analyzed phenomenon in a relatively short period of time.
Źródło:
Security Dimensions; 2020, 33(33); 217-240
2353-7000
Pojawia się w:
Security Dimensions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Failure risk analysis in the water distribution system
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069656.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
failure
risk
water distribution system
Opis:
A water distribution system (WDS) ought to be high reliable continuous operating system. Failure factors in WDS should be identified and prioritised, for example, the causing factors in the most frequent failures in water-pipe network. In this paper, the failure risk analysis of the WDS is presented, and accordingly, a New method consisting the failures index (FI) and the evaluation of risk of failure within the relevant area, based on the assumed categories (tolerable, controlled and unacceptable risk). It is expecting that the methodology for the WDS performance risk analysis would provide the city leadership for decision making support.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 247--254
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zagrożenie wybuchem wodoru na okręcie podwodnym. Cz. IV, Prowadzenie projektów wysokiego ryzyka
The risk of hydrogen explosion in a submarine. Part IV, the implementation of high risk projects
Autorzy:
Kłos, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1359799.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Medycyny i Techniki Hiperbarycznej
Tematy:
ryzyko projektowe
analiza ryzyka w projekcie
metoda analizy ryzyka
project risk
project risk analysis
risk analysis methods
Opis:
W cyklu artykułów przedstawiono problematykę prowadzenia projektu dużego ryzyka na przykładzie modernizacji spalarek wodoru na okręcie podwodnym. W artykule opisano problemy zarządzania takim projektem.
This series of articles on high risk projects looks at the example of the modernisation of hydrogen incinerators on a submarine. The article describes problems connected with the management of such a project.
Źródło:
Polish Hyperbaric Research; 2017, 2(59); 7-56
1734-7009
2084-0535
Pojawia się w:
Polish Hyperbaric Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Importance of Information in Crisis Management
Autorzy:
Kaczmarczyk, Barbara
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1375100.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Policji w Szczytnie
Tematy:
crisis situations
crisis management
risk analysis
Opis:
Threats have accompanied humanity since the dawn of time. Most of them can develop into crisis situations that can be interpreted in many different ways. The crisis situation is closely linked with the concept of crisis management, which is implemented in four phases. At every stage of work, various elements are significant in terms of crisis management. There are also elements that are very important at every stage. These include: threat analysis, estimation of the probability of their occurrence in a given area, and assessment of their sensitivity. An appropriate information flow system supports the implementation of the above elements. This system should be effective in such relations as between services and between services and society. The effectiveness of information flow depends on the reliability of this information and its flow channel. Information is of particular importance in the decision-making process. It should have appropriate features and properties. Based on the information, both good and bad decisions can be made. In crisis management, this can be relevant to human health and even human life. This article discusses issues related to the nature of information in crisis management.
Źródło:
Internal Security; 2020, 12(1); 85-95
2080-5268
Pojawia się w:
Internal Security
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Steam turbine maintenance planning based on forecasting of life consumption processes and risk analysis
Autorzy:
Rusin, Andrzej
Tomala, Martyna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2172025.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
steam turbine
risk analysis
preventive maintenance
Opis:
Flexible operation of coal-fired power plants contributes to the intensification of the life consumption processes, which is a serious problem especially in the case of units with a long in-service time. In steam turbine rotors, the crack propagation rate and material wear caused by low-cycle fatigue increase. The aim of the research is an attempt to forecast the development of these processes and to estimate the probability of critical elements damage, such as the high-pressure and intermediate-pressure rotors. In the stress state analyses, the finite element method (FEM) is used, the Monte Carlo method and the second order reliability method (SORM) is apply to calculate the probability of failure. It is proposed to use risk analysis to plan preventive maintenance of the turbine. The optimal intervals for carrying out diagnostic tests and prophylactic repairs is determined for various operating scenarios and various failure scenarios. This enables a reduction of the costs while ensuring the safety of the turbine's operation.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2022, 24, 3; 395--406
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methods for risk analysis in disaster reduction
Autorzy:
Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069580.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
disaster reduction
natural hazards
Opis:
This paper discusses a proposal for a risk management tool for applications to risk reduction of natural hazards.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2007, 1; 121--125
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Ensuring Organisational Security from the Perspective of Security Sciences
Autorzy:
Płonka, Bogusław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1808093.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019-04-11
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
organisational security
control models
risk analysis
Opis:
This paper is dedicated to the topic of security in the context of activities carried out by organisations. The analysis of the security-related context of the enterprises, decisions and threats that often co-occur with organisational activities is an interesting challenge for a researcher. The aspiration to ensure their own survival and undisturbed development is the basic driving force behind all organisations. In the following paper, the author explains the meaning of basic terms connected with the aforementioned issues, such as uncertainty, risk and security. The models and dimensions of control are discussed consecutively, as well as the methods and techniques utilised in risk assessment. Control and risk analysis are currently the means of counteracting threats that is most commonly used in organisations. The aim of the paper is to carry out the review of the hitherto existing research stipulations regarding the sphere of organisational security. The author points out that the problem of organisational security, treated as a core research subject, may be successfully developed and elaborated within the framework of security sciences discipline.
Źródło:
Security Dimensions; 2018, 28(28); 122-140
2353-7000
Pojawia się w:
Security Dimensions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Substation reliability evaluation in the context of the stability prediction of power grids
Autorzy:
Borecki, M.
Ciuba, M.
Kharchenko, Y.
Khanas, Y.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/199826.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
reliability
power grid
risk analysis
substation
Opis:
The aim of the presented work was to examine the reliability assessment model on the example of a selected power grid object. The analyzed object was tested based on assumptions about technological breaks that were caused by overvoltage, among others. The study was conducted to check the reliability of integral elements of the power grid object and to assess the change in reliability level as a function of the frequency of inspections. The test results are to determine the optimal frequency of inspections of individual power grid objects in order to increase its reliability. In addition, the possibility of correlating optimal inspection periods resulting from the findings of this paper with periodic inspections of power network facilities was assessed.
Źródło:
Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences; 2020, 68, 4; 769-776
0239-7528
Pojawia się w:
Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting currency risk in an enterprise using the Monte Carlo simulation
Autorzy:
Kaczmarzyk, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/949105.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
corporate finance
financial risk
risk analysis
Monte Carlo
Opis:
A non-financial enterprise with receivables or liabilities denominated in a foreign currency is exposed to currency risk. Wanting to calculate a financial reserve in order to secure its receivables or liabilities, an enterprise can introduce the concept of the value at risk. To determine value at risk, an enterprise has to know the probability distribution of the future value of the receivable or the liability for a specific moment in future. Using a geometric Brownian motion to reflect exchange rate changes is among the possible solutions. The aim of the paper is to indicate that using the Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting the currency risk of an enterprise is a clear, easy-to-implement and flexible in terms of the assumptions approach. The flexibility of the Monte Carlo approach relies on the possibility to take up the assumption that the currency position changes caused by currency fluctuations have an other than normal probability distribution.
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2018, 23, 4; 50-62
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Easy Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Outline of the Method
Autorzy:
Wyszywacz, Wiktor
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/36783950.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Lotnictwa
Tematy:
easy risk assessment
UAS
safety
threats
risk analysis
Opis:
The key element of safety systems in air transport is risk management. The rules for the safety of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations are established by the Commission Implementing Regulations (European Union [EU]) and national regulations. Risk assessment is the foundation of all activities. The broadest scope is covered by the special category of flights for which the Joint Authorities for rulemaking on Unmanned Systems (JARUS) developed the Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) analysis. The primary purpose of the SORA analysis is to create a comprehensive safety portfolio, which is attached to the National Aviation Authority (NAA) application for permission to perform specific category flights. Aviation authorities may accept the use of other risk analysis methods to demonstrate risk reduced to a safe level. Easy Risk Assessment (ERA) for UASs is an attempt to determine the risk for UAS flights in a simple way by considering a range of factors influencing risk management in a similar way to the SORA. It is an uncomplicated method, which determines threats and their sources, provides risk management, and allows the determination of the level of risk tolerance. The ERA is intended to be an alternative to the SORA methodology for those looking to carry out risk assessment.
Źródło:
Transactions on Aerospace Research; 2022, 3 (268); 32-47
0509-6669
2545-2835
Pojawia się w:
Transactions on Aerospace Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka na rynku Nord Pool Spot
Risk Analysis on the Nord Pool Spot
Autorzy:
Ganczarek-Gamrot, Alicja
Krężołek, Dominik
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/589891.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Analiza ryzyka
Analiza wartości zagrożonej
Rynek energetyczny
Ryzyko inwestycyjne
Energy market
Investment risk
Risk analysis
Value at Risk Analysis
Opis:
The aim of this paper is the analysis of risk on Scandinavian energy market: Nord Pool Spot. The analysis is based on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As the normality assumption for linear returns of prices has been rejected, the alternative distribution has been proposed: the alpha-stable distribution. The results shown that there are some differences between risks among submarkets of Nord Pool Spot. Moreover, the alpha- stable distribution better approximate real Value-at-Risk than normal one only if quantiles of order 0,05 and 0,95 are considered.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2014, 192; 44-58
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Global risks – irrationality, identification and new type of threats
Autorzy:
FRANTIŠEK, HOCMAN,
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/890931.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018-08-17
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
global risk
risk analysis
risk area
risk exposure
risk of transfer
Opis:
Systematic analysis based on the assumption of rational behaviour of human being in addition to the mathematical models is based on the inherent factors in quantification of global risks. Decisions are made based on all available information, to act in order to maximize the utility. However, the current state of global quantification of risks based on the probability of economic loss scenarios, rationality of action in emergencies excludes and puts to the forefront scenarios likelihood and severity based on information asymmetry. If all risk takers were fully informed, it would avoid the moral hazard and the amount of individual risks would be stable in the global context.
Źródło:
Kultura Bezpieczeństwa. Nauka – Praktyka – Refleksje; 2016, 21; 138-146
2299-4033
Pojawia się w:
Kultura Bezpieczeństwa. Nauka – Praktyka – Refleksje
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Management of Change as a Part of Caring about Safety
Autorzy:
Ferjencik, M.
Cardoso Anastacio, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/357944.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Przemysłu Organicznego
Tematy:
accident prevention
risk analysis
LOPA
organizational change
Opis:
No plant, including those manufacturing explosives or explosive articles, remains unchanged during its lifetime. But it is also known that changes − revisions in the original design − quite often contribute to adverse events. Operators therefore need to know how to manage the modifications safely, not increasing the danger for the operation, its employees or its surroundings. This article describes two accidents in the explosives manufacturing industry that were caused by a deficiency in the management of change. For both cases, a possible way as to how the accidents could have been prevented using proper management of the change procedure, based on risk analysis, is described.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Energetic Materials; 2017, 14, 2; 469-486
1733-7178
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Energetic Materials
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Several sets of assumptions for the Monte Carlo simulation for a more precise analysis of enterprise risk
Autorzy:
Kaczmarzyk, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425026.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
corporate finance
risk analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
Opis:
The traditional methods of risk quantification include a sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The true nature of risk factors changes is ignored in the traditional ‘ceteris paribus’ approach to a sensitivity analysis, hence it can be reflected in a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The most significant disadvantage of a scenario analysis is the limited number of scenarios, whereas a historical simulation depends on historical data availability and adequacy. The Monte Carlo simulation is a clear answer to the limitations of traditional methods. The changes of risk factors reflected in the Monte Carlo simulation are simultaneous, non-linear and interdependent. The most important aspect of this method is the stage of taking up the assumptions. The purpose of the paper is to indicate that considering several reasonable sets of assumptions for the Monte Carlo simulation simultaneously can bring even more comprehensive information about enterprise risk.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2019, 23, 4; 80-95
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The meaning of geostatistical research in the light of the concept of assessing values of lignite deposits
Autorzy:
Pactwa, K.
Woźniak, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/88966.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Wydział Geoinżynierii, Górnictwa i Geologii. Instytut Górnictwa
Tematy:
geostatistics
lignite
mining
power engineering
risk analysis
Opis:
The article presents the role of geostatistical research in identification (and minimization) of a geological risk against the background of the concept presented, aiming at assessing the value of lignite deposits from the perspective of integrated entities, i.e. mines and power stations. A detailed review of the solutions in geostatistics is to prove their usefulness and convince about the purposefulness of their application. The issue of optimization of sampling the deposit is important in defining its value, and at the same time its future development. In addition, on each stage of the chain of creating the value, the areas were defined of uncertainties and a number of risk which are attached with reference to the solution proposed of assessing the deposit value.
Źródło:
Mining Science; 2015, 22, Special Issue 2; 105-112
2300-9586
2353-5423
Pojawia się w:
Mining Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Influence of implementation of technologically advanced evacuation models on the process of decreasing the risk during accidents in an LNG terminal
Autorzy:
Stanković, G.
Petelin, S.
Vidmar, P.
Perkovič, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/375466.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
Tematy:
LNG
risk analysis
evacuation model
analiza ryzyka
Opis:
The continuing growth of the LNG (liquid natural gas) industry has led to a rapid increase in the construction of LNG terminals and the need for accurate risk assessment models as accidents involving LNG are potentially hazardous and pose a major threat. One aspect of risk modeling - evacuation of people to the safe zones of an LNG terminal - is a complex problem that has yet to receive sufficient attention. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the implementation of a technologically advanced evacuation model may decrease risk during potential accidents in an LNG terminal.
Źródło:
Transport Problems; 2017, 12, 1; 25-38
1896-0596
2300-861X
Pojawia się w:
Transport Problems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Optymalizacja eksploatacji maszyn i urządzeń
Asset maintenance optimization
Autorzy:
Pietrzyk, A.
Uhl, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/328254.pdf
Data publikacji:
2002
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Towarzystwo Diagnostyki Technicznej PAN
Tematy:
RCM
analiza ryzyka
krytyczność
risk analysis
criticality
Opis:
W pracy wskazano możliwości optymalizacji decyzji eksploatacyjnych dzięki adaptacji metodologii RCM (ang. Reliability-Centered Maintenance), która poprzez integrację wielu dyscyplin nauki i techniki pozwala na efektywne technicznie i ekonomicznie planowanie działań serwisowych z uwzględnieniem warunków eksploatacji oraz oczekiwań użytkowników. RCM jest obecnie najpopularniejszą i najbardziej efektywną strategią zarządzania serwisem. Podstawy RCM zostały stworzone w latach 60-tych w przemyśle lotniczym USA. Dzięki serwisowi niezawodnościowemu uzyskano zmniejszenie kosztów eksploatacji samolotów przy jednoczesnej poprawie poziomu bezpieczeństwa lotów. Zaletą analizy RCM jest to, że może być przeprowadzona zarówno dla obiektów nowych jak i istniejących, a nawet już na etapie projektowania. W pracy przedstawiono propozycję oprogramowania ułatwiającego przeprowadzenie takich analiz oraz umożliwiającego wykonanie symulacji techniczno-ekonomicznych efektów proponowanych decyzji.
This paper presents possibilities of maintenance optymization with applying Reliability-Centered Maintenance based Methodology. RCM is a strategy that allow technically and economically effective maintenance task scheduling with respect to the users expectations in existing operating context. RCM is at moment the most popular and effective asset management strategy. RCM was developed over a period of thirty years in aviation industry. Applying RCM based techniques decreases flying costs and increases safety level. One of the benefits of RCM analysis is that it can be perform on the new or existing assets. RCM analyse can be applied even in the design phase. This publication presents software that assists in the analysis process, and allows to make economical symulations.
Źródło:
Diagnostyka; 2002, 26; 29-36
1641-6414
2449-5220
Pojawia się w:
Diagnostyka
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Migration Crisis – risk analysis for 2017
Autorzy:
El Ghamari, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1202385.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Biznesu w Dąbrowie Górniczej
Tematy:
Migrant crisis
Frontex
Migrats routs
Risk analysis
Opis:
Regular passenger flows across external borders will also grow significantly in the coming years, in particular at the air border, due to increased global mobility. Visa liberalisation processes and local border traffic agreements also lead to greater responsibility for bordercontrol authorities. Movements across external air borders are managed through a layered approach, where the border is divided into four tiers. In this context, the physical border is gradually becoming a second ary layer for risk assessment, meaning that checking and screening start well before passengers cross bordercontrol posts at airports.
Źródło:
Security Forum; 2018, 1, Volume 2 No 1/2018; 37-49
2544-1809
Pojawia się w:
Security Forum
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methods for integrated Failure Risk Analysis of Water Network in terms of Water Supply System Functioning Management
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068882.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
water supply system
failure indicators
risk analysis
Opis:
In the paper the issues connected with failure risk analysis related to the functioning of this system were presented. In the analysis of water supply system it is important to assess the safety of its operation, both from the producer and the consumer point of view. The paper presents the method of analysis of consumers acceptance of water costs that companies bear for the risk reduction. The proposed method can be the basis of comprehensive program of risk failure management and in decision-making on water supply operation.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 157--166
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-25 z 433

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