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Wyświetlanie 1-10 z 433
Tytuł:
A new mathematical model for analytical risk assessment and prediction in IT systems
Autorzy:
Fray, I. E.
Kurkowski, M.
Pejaś, J.
Maćków, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206238.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
risk analysis
risk analysis methods
formal model for risk analysis
Opis:
In this paper, we propose a new formal model to describe risk analysis and measurement process for IT systems. Our model complies with international standards and recommendations for non-profit organisations. The model accounts for solutions used in widely known and recommended risk analysis methods and provides for evaluation of efficacy of these solutions. A simple example illustrates the application of the proposed model for effective risk analysis of any IT system.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2012, 41, 1; 241-268
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza zagrożeń powodziowych w zlewni rzeki Piotrówki
Analysis of flood risk in Piotrówka river catchment
Autorzy:
Czamara, W.
Rosik-Dulewska, C.
Lipka, R.
Wiatkowski, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1819809.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
powódź
zlewnia rzeki
analiza zagrożeń
analysis risk
river catchment
Opis:
Zagrożenie powodziowe w Polsce występuje na powierzchni ponad 2 mln hektarów, obejmujących obszary dolinowe i przymorskie, stanowi to ok. 7% powierzchni kraju [1]. Na obszarze tym występują różne typy powodzi o różnym zakresie przestrzennym i czasie występowania. Najczęstszą przyczyną ich pojawiania się stanowią opady atmosferyczne, które w okresie (półroczach letnich) 1941÷2001 były przyczyną powstawania powodzi w 59% przypadkach. Ponadto w analizowanym okresie, w półroczach zimowych (od listopada do kwietnia), najczęściej pojawiały się powodzie sztormowe (13%), zatorowe (10%), roztopowe (8%), i roztopowo-opadowe (5%). Wystąpiły również awarie urządzeń wodnych, stanowiły one przyczynę 5% powodzi [15]. Powódź jest zjawiskiem przyrodniczym, występującym nieregularnie i na ogół ma gwałtowny przebieg [17]. Wyeliminowanie powodzi jest niemożliwe, gdyż nie można kontrolować takich zjawisk jak opad atmosferyczny, można natomiast ograniczyć wielkość strat spowodowanych powodzią [21]. Na zmniejszenie strat powodziowych można wpływać poprzez rozwiązania techniczne i nietechniczne. Ze względu na stosowane środki techniczne, ochronę przeciwpowodziową dzieli się na czynną i bierną [18, 22].
The flood risk in Poland is found on more than 2 millions hectare area (valley and coastal territory) that constitute about 7% of country area [1]. There are a various types of flooding that are characterized by diverse duration and spatial scope. The reason of flooding occurrence in 59% of cases are precipitation and this was a main reason of inundation in 1941 - 2001 season. The dissertation concerns issues of flood protection in Piotrówka river catchment localized in south Poland. In the last few years the increase of flood incidence can be observed in the considered catchment area. The range of floods also increases and, as a result, larger areas get flooded, which makes consequences of each flood more severe. The instances are flood from July 1997 when the streamflow reached Q = 53.2 m3/s and from 24th August 2005 when the maximum historical flow of Q = 64.9 m3/s was reached. Due to the fact that Piotrówka flows to the Czech Republic, it causes flood risk for both countries. In this paper the flood risk for Piotrówka river catchment has been identified by determining flooded areas and proposing a course of action to protect areas most vulnerable to a flood wave. Flood areas determined by the flow of the probability of occurrence of p = 1% (Qmax 1%) and maximal historical flow of the probability of occurrence of p = 0.04% (Qmax 0.04%) (that took place on 24th August 2005) have also been set. According to methodic given by Radczuk and al. [2001] the range of the areas has been established by determining the location of points of the highest water level on Włodzimierz Czamara, Czesława Rosik-Dulewska, Roman Lipka, Mirosław Wiatkowski 958 Środkowo-Pomorskie Towarzystwo Naukowe Ochrony Środowiska the cross-section of Piotrówka river channel. Flood area presented on topographic maps with the aid of Corel Draw 12.0 graphic program. Different options of flood protection, constituting proposals of solutions for the valley of Piotrówka river have been analyzed. What has been proposed: building of dikes, appropriate land use planning in flooded area, realisation of pondage program by the building of small reservoirs, but also agromelioration and reforestation in basin, introducing the Local Flood Warning System in order to increase of efficacy to warn off from flooding,implementation of mechanism of flood risk management according to Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks. These actions will enhance flood prevention and reduce negative consequences of inundation at the same time.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2009, Tom 11; 945-958
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk in systems with virtualization : test case analysis
Autorzy:
Stanclik, M.
Walkowiak, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069148.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
virtualization
risk analysis
threats
Opis:
The paper presents an approach to risk analysis of exemplar test case information systems. Authors point out the common practice to implement virtualization and put away security considerations for future[5]. The overview of virtualization techniques, focusing on server virtualization is given. Next, authors present risk analysis of exemplar GIS system. First of all identification of threats is taken out focusing on virtualization aspects, but it also includes common threats for both that could have a significant impact on safety when using a virtualization. The risk assessment for the test case system was performed using qualitative method. Assessment of the likelihood and magnitude of impact of identified risks was performed on the basis of the expert’s knowledge and experience. The obtained results were used to develop risk rankings, which indicate the risks that need special attention when designing and managing a virtual system.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2013, 4, 2; 249--258
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Level of Risk and Decision-making in Managing Industrial Activity with the Elimination of Negative Environmental Impacts
Autorzy:
Végsöová, Oľga
Straka, Martin
Kyšeľa, Kamil
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1811590.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
risk
danger
threat
risk analysis
risk assessment
Opis:
This paper focuses on the assessment of the degree of risk in all phases of extraction activities in a selected quarry in the Slovak Republic. The research part of the paper assesses the degree of risk resulting from the assessment of the threat, the probability of the threat and the consequence of an adverse event in extraction activities. The paper offers an important basis for decision-making in quarry management in order to eliminate the negative consequences of andesite mining on the environment, equipment and people. The extraction activity in the Kecerovský Lipovec quarry is assessed by this paper as low risk for two phases of extraction, specifically the preparation phase, and the extraction itself. The paper also highlights the importance of taking measures. Regarding the safety criteria in the Kecerovský Lipovec quarry, it is possible, based on the results of the analysis and evaluation, to consider the quarry to be safe. However, a condition for this is the necessary expert training of workers in all activities performed while working in the quarry. Here, the need for personnel to strictly adhere to the set standards for extraction activities is of prime importance. This finding confirms the above that the aim of diagnosing and naming the potential for adverse events in the extraction process must be to minimize risks, as their absolute exclusion is not possible due to the human factor and unforeseeable circumstances.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2020, Tom 22, cz. 1; 130-143
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Statistically (optimal) estimators of semivariance: A correction of Josephy-Aczel’s proof
Autorzy:
Fleischer, Karlheinz
Nietert, Bernhard
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/433944.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
risk analysis
semivariance
statistical estimation
Opis:
Semivariance is an intuitive risk measure because it concentrates on the shortfall below a target and not on total variation. To successfully use semivariance in practice, however, a statistical estimator of semivariance is needed; Josephy and Aczel provide such an estimator. Unfortunately, they have not correctly proven asymptotic unbiasedness and mean squared error consistency of their estimator since their proof contains a mistake. This paper corrects the computational mistake in Josephy-Aczel’s original proof and, that way, allows researchers and practitioners in the field of downside portfolio selection, hedging, downside asset pricing, risk measurement in a regulatory context, and performance measurement to work with a meaningfully specified downside measure.
Źródło:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny; 2019, 17 (23); 9-30
1644-6739
Pojawia się w:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis of Vegetables Marketing in Rwanda, A case of carrots and cabbages produced in Rubavu District and supplied across the country
Autorzy:
Kubwimana, Jean Jacques
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1892206.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-07-08
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
Risk, Risk analysis, Likert Scale, Marketing risk, Vegetable Marketing risk, and Risk Management.
Opis:
Due to the perishable nature and biological nature of the production process there is difficulty in scheduling the supply of vegetables to market demand. The vegetables are subjected to higher prices and quantity risks with changing consumers’ demand and production conditions. The core focus of this study was to reach, measure, and analyzing the marketing risk level of vegetables produced in Rubavu District, Rwanda. The study based on a survey of 90 vegetable sellers. At least 30 couple of wholesalers and middlemen visited Rubavu District to trade the vegetables for various retails. Primary data collected through structured questionnaires and secondary data sources used. A Five-point Likert associated with the bivariate analysis was used to rank the risk level while the full model of Linear Regression Analysis and factor analysis were used to identifier the majors’ factors associated with the risk in vegetable marketing in Rwanda. The mean score results derived based on Likert-Scales, indicated that “low seasonal product prices, weak market channels, poor logistics, and market communications, poor product handling and packaging, lack of storage and higher perishability’ identified to be the most important sources of risk. Therefore, the use of forwards’ contracts; getting market information, sell at crude prices due to perishability, contractual arrangements, maintaining good relationships and restoring the storage network system were of significant concerns for overcoming the recognized risks.  
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2020, 56, 2; 183-200
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
How to Estimate Security – Problem Analysis
Autorzy:
Pilarski, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1807890.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-06-30
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
Tematy:
security
estimation
risk analysis
political risk
forecasting
Opis:
Background: The article presents a method of estimating the security level which indicates how probable it is for a phenomenon to occur. Objectives: The author attempts to answer the question: How do we estimate security? Decision makers usually need percentage showing the probability of an incident taking place in the future. This information is needed in the first place, later decision makers can use more descriptive information. Methods: The research problem concerns the assessment of security using the estimation method. Depicting security in numbers is difficult, thus the descriptive method is also usually applied. The estimation method facilitates the assessment. It is helpful since it is partly done by calculation and partly by guessing or approximation. Based on a case study analysing whether a terrorist attack may occur, the author also used tools such as averaging expert predictions, scenario analysis and risk analysis. Results: This article provides a view on forecasting security, which results in a method of estimating the level of security. Conclusions: The author presents an approach which allows to initially estimate the security level of the analyzed phenomenon in a relatively short period of time.
Źródło:
Security Dimensions; 2020, 33(33); 217-240
2353-7000
Pojawia się w:
Security Dimensions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Failure risk analysis in the water distribution system
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069656.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
failure
risk
water distribution system
Opis:
A water distribution system (WDS) ought to be high reliable continuous operating system. Failure factors in WDS should be identified and prioritised, for example, the causing factors in the most frequent failures in water-pipe network. In this paper, the failure risk analysis of the WDS is presented, and accordingly, a New method consisting the failures index (FI) and the evaluation of risk of failure within the relevant area, based on the assumed categories (tolerable, controlled and unacceptable risk). It is expecting that the methodology for the WDS performance risk analysis would provide the city leadership for decision making support.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 247--254
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zagrożenie wybuchem wodoru na okręcie podwodnym. Cz. IV, Prowadzenie projektów wysokiego ryzyka
The risk of hydrogen explosion in a submarine. Part IV, the implementation of high risk projects
Autorzy:
Kłos, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1359799.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Medycyny i Techniki Hiperbarycznej
Tematy:
ryzyko projektowe
analiza ryzyka w projekcie
metoda analizy ryzyka
project risk
project risk analysis
risk analysis methods
Opis:
W cyklu artykułów przedstawiono problematykę prowadzenia projektu dużego ryzyka na przykładzie modernizacji spalarek wodoru na okręcie podwodnym. W artykule opisano problemy zarządzania takim projektem.
This series of articles on high risk projects looks at the example of the modernisation of hydrogen incinerators on a submarine. The article describes problems connected with the management of such a project.
Źródło:
Polish Hyperbaric Research; 2017, 2(59); 7-56
1734-7009
2084-0535
Pojawia się w:
Polish Hyperbaric Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Importance of Information in Crisis Management
Autorzy:
Kaczmarczyk, Barbara
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1375100.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Policji w Szczytnie
Tematy:
crisis situations
crisis management
risk analysis
Opis:
Threats have accompanied humanity since the dawn of time. Most of them can develop into crisis situations that can be interpreted in many different ways. The crisis situation is closely linked with the concept of crisis management, which is implemented in four phases. At every stage of work, various elements are significant in terms of crisis management. There are also elements that are very important at every stage. These include: threat analysis, estimation of the probability of their occurrence in a given area, and assessment of their sensitivity. An appropriate information flow system supports the implementation of the above elements. This system should be effective in such relations as between services and between services and society. The effectiveness of information flow depends on the reliability of this information and its flow channel. Information is of particular importance in the decision-making process. It should have appropriate features and properties. Based on the information, both good and bad decisions can be made. In crisis management, this can be relevant to human health and even human life. This article discusses issues related to the nature of information in crisis management.
Źródło:
Internal Security; 2020, 12(1); 85-95
2080-5268
Pojawia się w:
Internal Security
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-10 z 433

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