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Wyszukujesz frazę "Stochastic models" wg kryterium: Temat


Tytuł:
A data-driven approach to predict hydrometeorological variability and fluctuations in lake water levels
Autorzy:
Tan Kesgin, Remziye I.
Demir, Ibrahim
Kesgin, Erdal
Abdelkader, Mohamed
Agaccioglu, Hayrullah
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/28411608.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
evaporation
lake water level
precipitation
stochastic time series models
water transfer
Opis:
Beyşehir Lake is the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean region of Turkey that is used for drinking and irrigation purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine the potential for data-driven methods to predict long-term lake levels. The surface water level variability was forecast using conventional machine learning models, including autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). Based on the monthly water levels of Beyşehir Lake from 1992 to 2016, future water levels were predicted up to 24 months in advance. Water level predictions were obtained using conventional time series stochastic models, including autoregressive moving average, autoregressive integrated moving average, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Using historical records from the same period, prediction models for precipitation and evaporation were also developed. In order to assess the model’s accuracy, statistical performance metrics were applied. The results indicated that the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperformed all other models for lake level, precipitation, and evaporation prediction. The obtained results suggested the importance of incorporating the seasonality component for climate predictions in the region. The findings of this study demonstrated that simple stochastic models are effective in predicting the temporal evolution of hydrometeorological variables and fluctuations in lake water levels.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2023, 58; 158--170
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of the Moving Average Method of Simplifying Simulation of Random Fields
Autorzy:
Maciejewski, S.
Gorczewska-Langner, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/241480.pdf
Data publikacji:
2006
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Budownictwa Wodnego PAN
Tematy:
stochastic models
multidimensional random variable
moving average
transport phenomena in soil
Opis:
A method of simulating random fields using a moving average is proposed in this paper. Random fields were simulated for different sizes of sub-field and different numbers of cycles of calculations of the moving average. For the fields obtained the covariance function was analyzed. In order to estimate the efficiency of the proposed simulation method of random field based on the method of diagonal covariance matrix was performed. It is shown that two of the simulation methods presented are able to generate a multidimensional random variable with required correlation function. However, the method of diagonal covariance matrix has some limitations caused by the size of the simulated random field, which result from the necessity of converting a relatively large matrix. Using the proposed simulation method it is possible to simulate, in a comparatively quick and simple manner, a random field with a large number of nodes on PC-s. The presented method can be useful in the stochastic analysis of transport phenomena in soil.
Źródło:
Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics; 2006, 53, 2; 126-136
1231-3726
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Asymptotic behaviour of stochastic systems with conditionally exponential decay property
Autorzy:
Jurlewicz, Agnieszka
Weron, Aleksander
Weron, Karina
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1340207.pdf
Data publikacji:
1996
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Matematyczny PAN
Tematy:
stable distributions
minima of random sequences
stochastic CED systems
reaction kinetics
dielectric relaxation
stability of stochastic models
Opis:
A new class of CED systems, providing insight into behaviour of physical disordered materials, is introduced. It includes systems in which the conditionally exponential decay property can be attached to each entity. A limit theorem for the normalized minimum of a CED system is proved. Employing different stable schemes the universal characteristics of the behaviour of such systems are derived.
Źródło:
Applicationes Mathematicae; 1995-1996, 23, 4; 379-394
1233-7234
Pojawia się w:
Applicationes Mathematicae
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Cellular Automata and Many-Particle Systems Modeling Aggregation Behavior Among Populations
Autorzy:
Morale, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/929762.pdf
Data publikacji:
2000
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Oficyna Wydawnicza
Tematy:
równanie różniczkowe stochastyczne
równanie różniczkowo-całkowe
cellular automata
individual-based models
stochastic differential equations
law of large numbers
density dependence
nonlinear integrodifferential equations
Opis:
A cellular automaton model is presented in order to describe mutual interactions among the individuals of a population due to social decisions.The scheme is used for getting qualitative results, comparable to field experiments carried out on a population of ants which present an aggregative behavior. We also present a second description of a biological spatially structured population of N individuals by a system of stochastic differential equations of Ito type. A 'law of large numbers' to a continuum dynamics described by an integro-differential equation is given.
Źródło:
International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science; 2000, 10, 1; 157-173
1641-876X
2083-8492
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Efektywność techniczna i produktywność polskich gospodarstw rolnych specjalizujących się w uprawach polowych
Technical Efficiency and Productivity Growth of Polish Crop Farms
Autorzy:
Marzec, Jerzy
Pisulewski, Andrzej
Prędki, Artur
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575373.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019-06-24
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
funkcja produkcji
metoda otoczki danych
stochastyczne modele graniczne
data envelopment analysis
production function
Stochastic Frontier Models
Opis:
The study offers data on the technical efficiency (TE) and productivity growth of Polish crop farms. The data was obtained using Stochastic Frontier Models (SFM) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The application of these alternative approaches makes it possible to provide new information about production processes and indicates the consequences of using each method in efficiency and productivity analysis. The average TE scores obtained from SFM and DEA are 0.63 and 0.52 respectively. An analysis of exogenous factors affecting efficiency revealed that the size of agricultural area utilised has the strongest impact on efficiency in the DEA, while subsidies for less favoured areas have the strongest impact on efficiency in the SFM. In both methods, production elasticity with respect to materials was the highest, followed by elasticity with respect to labour. Moreover, both approaches indicate a productivity decline in the analysed period, though the causes of the decrease are different. The results obtained from SFM indicate that the TFP decline is attributed mainly to a decrease in technical efficiency not compensated by strong technical progress and small but positive scale growth. The opposite result was obtained using DEA, which indicates that the TFP decline was mainly caused by technical regression accompanied by small but positive scale growth.
W niniejszym opracowaniu zaprezentowano analizę porównawczą wyników dotyczących efektywności technicznej oraz produktywności polskich gospodarstw rolnych, uzyskanych w oparciu o stochastyczne modele graniczne (SFM) oraz nieparametryczną metodę DEA. Zastosowanie alternatywnych podejść dostarcza nowych informacji na temat procesu produkcyjnego oraz wskazuje na konsekwencje stosowania konkretnych metod w analizach produktywności i efektywności. Średnia ocena unormowanego miernika efektywności (TE) po obiektach i czasie wynosi 0,63 w podejściu SFM, a w ramach DEA jedynie 0,52. Analiza determinant efektywności wskazuje, że wg DEA najsilniej na zróżnicowanie efektywności wpływa powierzchnia użytków rolnych, a wg SFM – niekorzystne warunki gospodarowania. Z kolei przy badaniu procesu produkcji gospodarstw okazuje się, że najsilniejszy wpływ na produkcję upraw polowych mają materiały, a następnie zaangażowanie czynnika pracy (wskazują na to oba wykorzystane podejścia). W odniesieniu do zmian produktywności obie metody wskazują na jej spadek w badanym okresie, jednak z różnych przyczyn. Wyniki uzyskane w ramach SFM wskazują na silny spadek efektywności technicznej nie zrekompensowany postępem technicznym. Natomiast w ramach DEA spadek produktywności wynika przede wszystkim ze regresu technicznego, przy jednoczesnym wzroście efektywności technicznej.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2019, 298, 2; 95-125
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Elaboration of occupational risks evaluation models considering the dynamics of impact of harmful factors
Autorzy:
Bochkovskyi, A. P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1818829.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Komputerowej Nauki o Materiałach i Inżynierii Powierzchni w Gliwicach
Tematy:
safety management
health management
Markov drift processes
stochastic models
risk evaluation
occupational risk
zarządzanie bezpieczeństwem
zarządzanie zdrowiem
modele stochastyczne
ocena ryzyka
ryzyko zawodowe
Opis:
Purpose: Elaborate and substantiate stochastic models of occupational risk evaluation for application in the occupation health and safety. Design/methodology/approach: Analysis of scientific and technical literature and regulatory framework for risk evaluation in the occupation health and safety; methods of probability theory, theory of Markov processes; methods of restoration theory. Findings: A system of differential equations and limit conditions for finding the limit distribution of probabilities of a random process of occupational dangers is derived. Based on the results of solving the limit value task, expressions to determine a number of key indicators by which the level of occupational risk can be evaluated are obtained. Research limitations/implications: The proposed approach aims to evaluation the risk associated with the impact on the employee of harmful factors, but can also be used to evaluate the injury risk. But in this case the received limit value task will be much more difficult. Practical implications: The application of the proposed approach allows to increase the level of occupational safety by taking into account the stochastic characteristics of the negative factors impact on the employee during occupational risks evaluating, as well as the possibility of setting such values of controllable parameters that will allow with a certain probability to ensure not to exceed the level of impact accumulation in the employee of the consequences of these factors. Originality/value: Stochastic models of occupational risk evaluation based on the application of Markov drift processes for the modeling the hybrid nature of the negative factors impact on the employee, which occurs within the real systems "man - technical system - production environment" were elaborated and substantiated for the first time.
Źródło:
Journal of Achievements in Materials and Manufacturing Engineering; 2020, 102, 2; 76--85
1734-8412
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Achievements in Materials and Manufacturing Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Elements of Method Improvement of Flood Zones Determination
Autorzy:
Kryzhovets, Tetiana
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1833889.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Oddział w Lublinie PAN
Tematy:
stochastic models
methods of extreme estimation
optimization problems
software
automated information systems
Opis:
The article suggests a possible application of mathematical modeling zones and flooding characteristics that will improve the methodological basis in hydrological calculations and forecasting will provide opportunities for a better understanding of the complex mechanisms of formation flow. The computational scheme is applicable for vertically homogeneous flow conditions extending from steep river flows to tidal influenced estuaries. The system has been used in numerous engineering studies.
Źródło:
ECONTECHMOD : An International Quarterly Journal on Economics of Technology and Modelling Processes; 2020, 9, 1; 25--29
2084-5715
Pojawia się w:
ECONTECHMOD : An International Quarterly Journal on Economics of Technology and Modelling Processes
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Fuzzy approach to dimensioning the navigational safety in maritime transport
Autorzy:
Smolarek, L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/245023.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
safety dimensioning
stochastic fuzzy models
safety in sea transport
Opis:
The safety of ships involved in the process of transport is one of the most important criteria in the maritime transport. Important factors making up the safety include the technical efficiency of the ship, the qualifications of the people in charge of the ship and the conditions under which the transport process takes a place. The paper focuses on the problems significant and characteristic to the ship traffic safety under uncertainty conditions. The ship safety at supervised traffic requires continuous identification of the navigational situation. Very often safety assessment of the traffic situation is made by examining the relative positions of vessel’s domains. A limitation is that under uncertainty conditions and more than two vessels we have to take into consideration dynamic domains according to the situations of conflicts, which is rather difficult to analyse. One way to assess the traffic safety approximation is analysis of the potentially conflicting situation. Safety in maritime transport can be analysed at the micro level (safety of the ship, the safety of navigation in specific situation mobility) and in terms of macro models (evaluation over time).In the article some problems of fuzzy description of traffic safety in maritime transport are presented. Basic definitions and a stochastic approach to concept of traffic safety in transport are given. The fuzzy approach to stochastic method of dimensioning traffic safety, useful in dynamic traffic control, is proposed.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2014, 21, 4; 453-459
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Liniowo-dynamiczny model optymalizacyjny gospodarstwa rolnego w województwie zachodniopomorskim ze stochastycznymi parametrami
Dynamic linear optymalization model of farm in West Pomerania province with stochastic parameters
Autorzy:
Zaród, Jadwiga
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453549.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
model liniowo-dynamiczny
stochastyczne parametry modelu
równania regresji
dochód rolniczy
dynamic linear model
stochastic parameters of the models
regression equations
farm income
Opis:
Na podstawie danych GUS i ARiMR zbudowano liniowodynamiczny model gospodarstwa rolnego. Model ten składa się z czterech bloków połączonych ze sobą za pomocą warunków wspólnych.. Parametry techniczno-ekonomiczne modelu, dotyczące wydajności podstawowych upraw, zastąpiono równaniami regresji. W celu uwzględnienia losowego charakteru funkcji celu wykorzystano trzy algorytmy: maksymalizujący dochód rolniczy (model E), minimalizujący ryzyko osiągnięcia dochodu rolniczego (model V) oraz minimalizujący ryzyko uzyskania dochodu z określonego przedziału (VE).
Based on data from CSO and the ARMA constructed a dynamic optimization model of the farm. This model consists of four blocks (one for each year) linked together by means of common conditions, established on the principle of recursive relationships. Technical and economic parameters of the model related to the primary productivity of crops, were replaced by regression equations. To take into account the random nature of the objective function three algorithms were used: maximizing farm income (model E), which minimizes the risk of achieving agricultural income (model V) and minimizes the risk of receiving income from a specific interval (VE).
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2011, 12, 2; 418-427
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Metodyczne podstawy symulacji stochastycznej Monte Carlo
Methodological Basis of the Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation
Autorzy:
Mitrenga, Damian
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/593428.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Metoda Monte Carlo
Modele stochastyczne
Symulacja Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo method
Monte Carlo simulation
Stochastic models
Opis:
The aim of these paper is to present the genesis and methodical basis of the Monte Carlo simulation, which allows to incorporate in studies the stochastic nature of economic variables. Additionally this article considers the connection between the mentioned method and the concepts of determinism and indeterminism.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2014, 204; 164-180
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modele stochastyczne zanieczyszczeń powietrza w aglomeracjach przemysłowych
Stochastic models of air pollution in industrial agglomerations
Autorzy:
Tumidajski, T.
Foszcz, D.
Niedoba, T.
Siewior, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1819793.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
zanieczyszczenie powietrza
modele stochastyczne
aglomeracja przemysłowa
air pollution
industrial agglomeration
stochastic models
Opis:
The Upper Silesian Industrial Region (GOP) is one of the most polluted regions in Poland. Because of the location of several important heavy industrial plants it is necessary to permanently monitor the various sort of dust and gas pollutantsconcentrations in this area. The paper presents the possibilities of stochastic air pollution modeling on the basis of data collected by monitoring stations. Several types of models were shown, including models applied in regions of big cities, like Stockholm, Vienna and Madrid, with special impact to so-called adaptive models. It was statistically proved that the formulae of the SO2 propagation model for the GOP S(t)=a+bS(t-1)+c(T-T0)2+d(v-v0)2+eQ1=eQ2. This equation was applied practically on the basis of the empirical data collected by selected monitoring stations.For the chosen monitoring station the directions of pollution flows and winds wereshown graphically (fig. 1). Nest step was derivation of the SO2 propagation model bytraditional regressive techniques (models from equations 6, 7 and 8), taking into considerationdirections of air flows, and adaptive models (fig. 3) basing on the previous model formulae. The obtained models were statistically evaluated. It occurred that the models considering air flows directions show changes of pollution propagation characteristics The advantage of adaptive models, which take into consideration data from previous periods of time, was proved, as they forecast concentration of pollution far better than the traditional regressive models.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2009, Tom 11; 543-554
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modele wyboru portfela akcji z warunkiem dominacji lub prawie dominacji stochastycznych
Models of Portfolio Selection with Stochastic Dominance or Almost Stochastic Dominance Constraints
Autorzy:
Michalska, Ewa
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/587146.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Dominacja stochastyczna
Modele stochastyczne
Podejmowanie decyzji
Portfel akcji
Decision making
Equity portfolios
Stochastic dominance
Stochastic models
Opis:
In the paper models of share portfolio selection with first order or second order almost stochastic dominance constraints (for discrete random variables) are proposed. There are several simple examples as an illustration of our models.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2013, 135; 88-101
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modeling and projection life expectancy. The case of the EU countries
Modelowanie i projekcja przeciętnego czasu trwania życia na przykładzie krajów UE
Autorzy:
Trzpiot, Grażyna
Majewska, Justyna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425253.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
life expectancy
mortality
Lee-Carter models family
stochastic models
Opis:
In this article we investigate the latest developments on life expectancy modeling. We review some mortality projection stochastic models and their assumptions, and assess their impact on projections of future life expectancy for selected countries in the EU. More specifically, using the age- and sex-specific data of 20 countries, we compare the point projection accuracy and bias of six principal component methods for the projection of mortality rates and life expectancy. The six methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step projection errors, the Renshaw and Haberman method provides the most accurate point projections of male mortality rates and the method is the least biased. The Quadratic CBD model with the cohort effects method performs the best for female mortality. While all methods rather underestimate variability in mortality rates and life expectancy, the Renshaw and Haberman method is the most accurate.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2015, 4 (50); 196-213
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On detection of homogeneous segments of observations in financial time series
Wykrywanie jednorodnych segmentów obserwacji w finansowych szeregach czasowych
Autorzy:
Sarnowski, Wojciech
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/905687.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
detection of change-points
minimum contrast estimator
GARCH models
stochastic volatility
Opis:
The aim of this article is to present financial data modelling in presence of stochastic disorders. Change-point analysis is applied. We adapt universal method of change-point detection for disorder in parameters of GARCH processes. A comparison of the model fitted to whole sample with models built on homogenous data subset is made.
Praca podejmuje zagadnienie modelowania finansowych szeregów czasowych w obecności rozregulowań struktury probabilistycznej. Zmiany wykrywane są za pomocą uniwersalnej metody detekcji zaadaptowanej do wykrywania rozregulowań w parametrach procesów typu GARCH. Przeprowadzona została statystyczna analiza jakości modeli uwzględniających wykryte zaburzenia z modelami, które zakładają iż ciąg danych ma jednorodną strukturę probabilistyczną.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2008, 216
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On the Empirical Importance of Periodicity in the Volatility of Financial Returns - Time Varying GARCH as a Second Order APC(2) Process
Autorzy:
Mazur, Błażej
Pipień, Mateusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483329.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
GARCH models
Bayesian inference
periodically correlated stochastic processes
volatility
unconditional variance
Opis:
We discuss the empirical importance of long term cyclical effects in the volatility of financial returns. Following Amado and Terasvirta (2009), Cizek and Spokoiny (2009) and others, we consider a general conditionally heteroscedastic process with stationarity property distorted by a deterministic function that governs the possible time variability of the unconditional variance. The function proposed in this paper can be interpreted as a finite Fourier approximation of an Almost Periodic (AP) function as defined by Corduneanu (1989). The resulting model has a particular form of a GARCH process with time varying parameters, intensively discussed in the recent literature. In the empirical analyses we apply a generalisation of the Bayesian AR(1)-GARCH model for daily returns of S&P500, covering the period of sixty years of US postwar economy, including the recently observed global financial crisis. The results of a formal Bayesian model comparison clearly indicate the existence of significant long term cyclical patterns in volatility with a strongly supported periodic component corresponding to a 14 year cycle. Our main results are invariant with respect to the changes of the conditional distribution from Normal to Student-t and to the changes of the volatility equation from regular GARCH to the Asymmetric GARCH.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2012, 4, 2; 95-116
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł

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