Temat: Probability Model - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Using the Monte Carlo method to create probability maps for search and rescue operations at sea
Autorzy:: Bugajski, G.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/135330.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Tematy:: Monte Carlo
probability map
rescue operation
shipwrecked
probability distribution
probability model
Opis:: In this article we proposed a probability map that allows for location of the position of survivors. We used a probability model of a survivor drift to create the map. The model is based on the provisions of IAMSAR containing factors like leeway and wind current. Our proposal of utilizing a probability map diff ers from that shown in the IAMSAR by using other probabilistic methods. We performed analysis of a drifting raft using the Monte Carlo method. The map is closer to reality, since it is asymmetrical and generated by the simulation. However, preparing probability maps might be helpful in SAR action planning.
Źródło:: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2016, 48 (120); 71-74
1733-8670
2392-0378
Pojawia się w:: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Probability Prognosis of the States of Results during Volleyball Match Sets
Prognozowanie probabilistyczne stanów meczowych w piłce siatkowej
Autorzy:: Anioł, Małgorzata
Wagner, Wiesław
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/905266.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2003
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:: probability model
binomial distribution
graph
prognosis
match volleyball
Opis:: One of characteristic features of a volleyball game is playing consecutive sets and deciding the current score according to the results of particular sets. In this way we can examine volleyball game in many stages, but the results of a game are fixed in the third, fourth or fifth stage. Each set creates a temporary state, which occurs with definite probability. It is immediately dependent on accepted foundations of probability of winning a set in every game stage. In the research we analysed a simplified model. For the needs of this model we draw a tree figure, which describes states of passing sets in a volleyball game. We described also a theoretical model and illustrated its helpfulness for interpretation of the results of female I-league from the starting season 1998/1999 for the team Augusto Kalisz, the winner of principle season.
W meczu piłki siatkowej rozgrywane są kolejne sety i wraz z tym ustalany jest stan meczu w zależności od rezultatywnie zakończonych setów. Oznacza to traktowanie meczu jako pewnej gry wieloetapowej, przy czym stany rezultatywne są ustalane na trzecim, czwartym lub piątym etapie gry. Każdy z etapów tworzy stan przejścia występujący z określonym prawdopodobieństwem. Jest ono bezpośrednio zależne od przyjętego prawdopodobieństwa wygrania seta. Prowadzi to do pewnego modelu probabilistycznego wygrania seta na każdym etapie przebiegu meczu. Wspomniany model pozwala prowadzić prognozę zarówno wygrania, jak i przegrania meczu, a także dla pośrednich stanów meczowych. W pracy zajęto się wykorzystaniem modelu probabilistycznego w piłce siatkowej do celów prognozowania. Dla potrzeb opisu takiego modelu podano graf w postaci drzewa opisującego stany przejścia setów w meczu piłki siatkowej, odpowiednie wzory prawdopodobieństwa dla wyników rezultatywnych meczu oraz przedstawiono aspekty prognozowania wyników meczowych. Rozważane zagadnienia zilustrowano na wynikach I ligi żeńskiej z sezonu startowego 1999/2000.
Źródło:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2003, 164
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Surface probability model for estimation of size distribution on a conveyor belt
Autorzy:: Zhang, Z
Yang, J.
Dou, D.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/109982.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2014
Wydawca:: Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:: size distribution
surface probability model
conveyor belt
particles
Opis:: Estimation of size distribution by image analysis is a key issue in mineral engineering. However, only the surface information of ore piles can be captured, which is a headache problem in this field while only a few researchers pay attention to this problem. A new surface probability model was proposed for estimation of size distribution on a conveyor belt based on the Chavez Model in this investigation. This model was tested and verified to have smaller errors in single size fraction but have bigger errors in multiple size fractions. Several error trends were found and a correction factor was introduced to correct the higher errors. A series of linear equations were developed to calculate this specific correction factor according to Dm (average particle size) and the height of pile. Therefore, empirical probability can be estimated by the specific correction factor and calculated probability, and the surface information of ore piles can be converted into the global information of piles.
Źródło:: Physicochemical Problems of Mineral Processing; 2014, 50, 2; 591-606
1643-1049
2084-4735
Pojawia się w:: Physicochemical Problems of Mineral Processing
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Software Systems Clustering Using Estimation of Distribution Approach
Autorzy:: Tajgardan, M.
Izadkhah, H.
Lotfi, S.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108635.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Społeczna Akademia Nauk w Łodzi
Tematy:: Software System
Clustering, Genetic Algorithm
Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA)
Probability Model
Opis:: Software clustering is usually used for program understanding. Since the software clustering is a NP-complete problem, a number of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are proposed for solving this problem. In literature, there are two wellknown GAs for software clustering, namely, Bunch and DAGC, that use the genetic operators such as crossover and mutation to better search the solution space and generating better solutions during genetic algorithm evolutionary process. The major drawbacks of these operators are (1) the difficulty of defining operators, (2) the difficulty of determining the probability rate of these operators, and (3) do not guarantee to maintain building blocks. Estimation of Distribution (EDA) based approaches, by removing crossover and mutation operators and maintaining building blocks, can be used to solve the problems of genetic algorithms. This approach creates the probabilistic models from individuals to generate new population during evolutionary process, aiming to achieve more success in solving the problems. The aim of this paper is to recast EDA for software clustering problems, which can overcome the existing genetic operators’ limitations. For achieving this aim, we propose a new distribution probability function and a new EDA based algorithm for software clustering. To the best knowledge of the authors, EDA has not been investigated to solve the software clustering problem. The proposed EDA has been compared with two well-known genetic algorithms on twelve benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach provides more accurate results, improves the speed of convergence and provides better stability when compared against existing genetic algorithms such as Bunch and DAGC.
Źródło:: Journal of Applied Computer Science Methods; 2016, 8 No. 2; 99-113
1689-9636
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Applied Computer Science Methods
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Comparison of Estimators of a Probability of Success in Two Models
Porównanie estymatorów prawdopodobieństwa sukcesu w dwóch modelach
Autorzy:: Zieliński, Wojciech
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/904811.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2013
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:: estimation of probability of success
binomial model
negative binomial model
Opis:: In modeling two valued phenomena a binomial or negative binomial model is applied. In the paper minimum variance unbiased estimators of a probability of success obtained in two models are compared.
Do modelowania zjawisk dychotomicznych wykorzystuje się model dwumianowy lub model ujemny dwumianowy. W pracy porównano estymatory nieobciążone o minimalnej wariancji prawdopodobieństwa sukcesu w tych dwóch modelach.
Źródło:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2013, 286
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: A logical device for processing nautical data
Autorzy:: Filipowicz, W.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/135599.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Tematy:: probability density
probability distributions
nautical evidence
uncertainty model
nautical propositions
simple belief structure
Opis:: Nautical measurements are randomly and systematically corrupted. There is a rich scope of knowledge regarding the randomness shown by results of observations. The distribution of stochastic distortions remains an estimate and is imprecise with respect to their parameters. Uncertainties can also occur through the subjective assessment of each piece of available data. The ability to model and process all of the aforementioned items through traditional approaches is rather limited. Moreover, the results of observations, the final outcome of a quality evaluation, can be estimated prior to measurements being taken. This a posteriori analysis is impaired and it is outside the scope of traditional, inaccurate data handling methods. To propose new solutions, one should start with an alternative approach towards modelling doubtfulness. The following article focusses on belief assignments that may benefit from the inclusion of uncertainty. It starts with a basic interval uncertainty model. Then, assignments engaging fuzzy locations around nautical indications are discussed. This fragment includes transformation from density functions to probability distributions of random errors. Diagrams of the obtained conversions are included. The presentation concludes with a short description of a computer application that implements the presented ideas.
Źródło:: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2017, 52 (124); 65-73
1733-8670
2392-0378
Pojawia się w:: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: The probabilistic analysis of the remote monitoring systems of critical infrastructure safety
Autorzy:: Zhulina, S.
Kuznetsova, T.
Kostogryzov, A.
Kurpatov, O.
Nistratov, A.
Nistratov, G.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068884.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: information
model
monitoring
probability
risk
safety
system
technology
Opis:: The approach for probabilistic analysis of the remote monitoring systems (RMS) of critical infrastructure safety (CIS) is proposed. It allows to estimate the reliability and timeliness of information producing, the completeness, validity and confidentiality of the RMS information. In application to composed and integrated CIS with RMS and without RMS the earlier models, developed by authors, are used. The methods for evaluating influence of RMS quality on risk to lose CIS integrity are developed. Some effects of RMS applications in Russia are demonstrated.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 183--188
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: About accuracy of risks prediction and importance of increasing adequacy of used probabilistic models
Autorzy:: Kostogryzov, A.
Nistratov, A.
Zubarev, I.
Stepanov, P.
Grigoriev, L.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069120.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2015
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: model
optimization
probability
quality
resources
risk
system
technology
Opis:: The work purpose is the quantitative proof of importance and necessity of increasing adequacy of probabilistic models, described by probability distribution functions (PDF) of time between losses of system integrity. For purpose achievement the analysis of probabilistic metrics of risks and the elementary forms to establish an admissible risks is carried out, some ways of increasing an adequacy of probabilistic models for complex structures are described. Possibilities of extracting the latent knowledge from an adequate PDF are shown. Practical value of the researches are the revealed possibilities for a substantiation of more effective system decisions at the expense of increasing accuracy of risks prediction. Effects are demonstrated by examples.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2015, 6, 2; 71--80
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Analytical modelling operation processes of composed and integrated information systems on the principles of system engineering
Autorzy:: Kostogryzov, A.
Stepanov, P.
Nistratov, A.
Nistratov, G.
Zubarev, I.
Grigoriev, L.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069182.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: information
model
probability
quality
risk
safety
system
technology
Opis:: The approach for analytical modelling operation processes of composed and integrated information systems is proposed. It allows to estimate the reliability and timeliness of information producing, the completeness, validity and confidentiality of the used information from users’ point of view. In application to composed and integrated systems the existing models are developed by introducing the space of elementary events for operation processes from system engineering point of view. It is intended for systems analysts for any IS. Some effects are demonstrated by examples.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 1; 157--166
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: A Bayesian analysis of complete multiple breaks in a panel autoregressive (CMB-PAR(1)) time series model
Autorzy:: Agiwal, Varun
Kumar, Jitendra
Shangodoyin, Dahud Kehinde
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1059004.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2020-12-04
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:: panel autoregressive model
structural break
MCMC
posterior probability
Opis:: Most economic time series, such as GDP, real exchange rate and banking series are irregular by nature as they may be affected by a variety of discrepancies, including political changes, policy reforms, import-export market instability, etc. When such changes entail serious consequences for time series modelling, various researchers manage this problem by applying a structural break. Thus, the aim of this paper is to develop a generalised structural break time series model. The paper discusses a panel autoregressive model with multiple breaks present in all parameters, i.e. in the autoregressive coefficient and mean and error variance, which is a generalisation of various sub-models. The Bayesian approach is applied to estimate the model parameters and to obtain the highest posterior density interval. Strong evidence is observed to support the Bayes estimator and then it is compared with the maximum likelihood estimator. A simulation experiment is conducted and an empirical application on the SARRC association’s GDP per capita time series is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed model. This model is also extended to a temporary shift model. Key words: panel autoregressive model, structural break, MCMC, posterior probability.
Źródło:: Statistics in Transition new series; 2020, 21, 5; 133-149
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:: Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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