About accuracy of risks prediction and importance of increasing adequacy of used probabilistic models

The work purpose is the quantitative proof of importance and necessity of increasing adequacy of probabilistic models, described by probability distribution functions (PDF) of time between losses of system integrity. For purpose achievement the analysis of probabilistic metrics of risks and the elementary forms to establish an admissible risks is carried out, some ways of increasing an adequacy of probabilistic models for complex structures are described. Possibilities of extracting the latent knowledge from an adequate PDF are shown. Practical value of the researches are the revealed possibilities for a substantiation of more effective system decisions at the expense of increasing accuracy of risks prediction. Effects are demonstrated by examples.