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Tytuł:
Determination of exhaust emission characteristics in the RDE test using the Monte Carlo method
Autorzy:
Andrych-Zalewska, Monika
Chłopek, Zdzisław
Merkisz, Jerzy
Pielecha, Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27311798.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
Monte Carlo method
RDE test
combustion engine
pollutant emission
metoda Monte Carlo
RDE
silnik spalinowy
emisja zanieczyszczeń
Opis:
The article presents a method of determining the characteristics of exhaust emissions and fuel mass consumption in real driving conditions based on a single test using the Monte Carlo method. The exhaust emission characteristics used are the relations between the emissions and the average vehicle speed, and the characteristic of the fuel mass consumption is the dependence of the fuel mass consumption at the average vehicle speed. The results of empirical research of a passenger car with a spark-ignition engine in the RDE test were used. The use of the Monte Carlo method made it possible to select the initial and final moments of averaging the process values, thanks to which it was possible to determine the discrete values of the characteristics for various values of average vehicle speeds. The determined discrete characteristics of the particulate mass and number emissions and fuel mass consumption relative to the average vehicle speed were approximated by polynomial functions of the second and third degree. The determined discrete characteristics, presented as sets of points, were characterized by a relatively small dispersion in relation to their polynomial approximations. The average relative deviation of the points of discrete characteristics from the value of the polynomial was in most cases small – less than 4%, only in the case of the number of particles emitted deviated from this, as the average relative deviation of the measured points from the determined polynomial was nearly 14%. Combined with the results of RDE empirical studies, the Monte Carlo method proved to be an effective method for determining the characteristics of exhaust emissions, measured in real vehicle operating conditions. The main advantage of the proposed method was a significant reduction in the actual workload necessary to carry out the empirical research – where it became possible to determine the characteristics in a large range of vehicle average speed values with just one drive test. Using standard methods of measuring this type of data, it would be necessary to conduct multiple tests, driving at different average vehicle speeds.
Źródło:
Archives of Transport; 2023, 66, 2; 45--60
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Effectiveness of Monte Carlo Simulations of the S&P 500 Index before and after the Outbreak of the SARS-COV-2 Pandemic*
Efektywność symulacji Monte Carlo indeksu S&P 500 przed ogłoszeniem i po ogłoszeniu pandemii SARS-COV-2
Autorzy:
Nawrocki, Piotr
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/16472961.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
Monte Carlo (MC) method
Black-Scholes (B-S) model
index simulation
COVID-19 pandemic
metoda Monte Carlo
model Blacka-Scholesa
symulacja indeksu
pandemia COVID-19
Opis:
Risk analysis is an integral part of studying the behavior of financial markets. Crises and emergencies challenge analysts trying to predict the value of stock indices by questioning their assumptions. One such event was the coronavirus pandemic, which undoubtedly affected our economy. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US market and to assess the change in effectiveness of the Monte Carlo method due to the pandemic. The study was realized with 12 MC simulations of daily S&P 500 index prices using historical data from 11.03.2015 to 11.03.2021. The negative impact of the pandemic on the accuracy of MC simulations was observed, lowering the confidence of the results. Changes in sensitivity depending on the chosen time period were also detected. The results may prompt consideration of modifying MC simulations during instability and provide information indicating the use of shorter time series to improve simulation efficiency during crises.
Analiza ryzyka jest integralną częścią badania zachowania rynków finansowych. Sytuacje kryzysowe stanowią wyzwanie dla analityków próbujących przewidzieć wartość indeksów giełdowych, kwestionując ich założenia. Jednym z takich wydarzeń była pandemia koronawirusa, która niewątpliwie wpłynęła na naszą gospodarkę. Celem niniejszego badania było zbadanie wpływu pandemii COVID-19 na rynek USA oraz ocena zmiany efektywności metody Monte Carlo na skutek pandemii. Badanie zostało zrealizowane za pomocą 12 symulacji MC dziennych cen indeksu S&P 500 przy użyciu danych historycznych między 11.03.2015 a 11.03.2021. Zaobserwowano negatywny wpływ pandemii na efektywność symulacji, obniżający wiarygodność wyników. Wykryto również zmiany czułości w zależności od wybranego okresu. Wyniki mogą skłonić do rozważenia modyfikacji symulacji MC podczas braku stabilności i dostarczyć informacji skłaniających do skorzystania z krótszych szeregów czasowych w celu poprawy efektywności symulacji podczas kryzysów.
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2023, 28, 1; 1-16
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Evaluation of the Effect of Uncertainties on the Acoustic Behavior of a Porous Material Located in a Duct Element Using the Monte Carlo Method
Autorzy:
Hannachi, Hanen
Trabelsi, Hassen
Kani, Marwa
Taktak, Mohamed
Chaabane, Mabrouk
Haddar, Mohamed
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/31339920.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
porous material
physical parameters
transmission loss
acoustic power attenuation
Monte Carlo
method
Opis:
When studying porous materials, most acoustical and geometrical parameters can be affected by the presence of uncertainties, which can reduce the robustness of models and techniques using these parameters. Hence, there is a need to evaluate the effect of these uncertainties in the case of modeling acoustic problems. Among these evaluation methods, the Monte Carlo simulation is considered a benchmark for studying the propagation of uncertainties in theoretical models. In the present study, this method is applied to a theoretical model predicting the acoustic behavior of a porous material located in a duct element to evaluate the impact of each input error on the computation of the acoustic proprieties such as the reflection and transmission coefficients as well as the acoustic power attenuation and the transmission loss of the studied element. Two analyses are conducted; the first one leads to the evaluation of the impacts of error propagation of each acoustic parameter (resistivity, porosity, tortuosity, and viscous and thermal length) through the model using a Monte Carlo simulation. The second analysis presents the effect of propagating the uncertainties of all parameters together. After the simulation of the uncertainties, the 95% confidence intervals and the maximum and minimum errors of each parameter are computed. The obtained results showed that the resistivity and length of the porous material have a great influence on the acoustic outputs of the studied model (transmission and reflection coefficients, transmission loss, and acoustic power attenuation). At the same time, the other physical parameters have a small impact. In addition, the acoustic power attenuation is the acoustic quantity least impacted by the input uncertainties.
Źródło:
Archives of Acoustics; 2023, 48, 1; 81-91
0137-5075
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Acoustics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Geometrical and optical analysis of small-sized parabolic trough collector using ray tracing tool SolTrace
Autorzy:
Singh, Raman Kumar
Chandra, Prakash
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27312206.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
parabolic trough collector
SolTrace
Monte Carlo ray tracing method
nonuniform heat flux distribution
optical analysis
geometrical analysis
Opis:
The present work is aimed at geometrical optimization and optical analysis of a small-sized parabolic trough collector (PTC). Improving the performance of parabolic trough collectors can greatly justify the use of solar energy. An optimized curvature geometry, the location of the absorber tube, and the heat flux distribution along the circumference of the absorber tube are major features in the geometric optimization and optical modelling of parabolic trough collectors. Rim angle, aperture width, the diameter of the absorber tube, receiver position, and the optimum value of heat flux are the major parameters considered in this work for geometrical and optical analysis. The Monte Carlo ray tracing method has been adopted for analysis. The non-uniform heat flux distribution profile obtained from optical analysis of the proposed parabolic trough collector has been compared with the profile available in the literature, and good agreement has been obtained, which proves the feasibility and reliability of the model and method used for this study. An experimental new small-sized parabolic trough collector has been fabricated for the optimized rim angle of 90 deg after a successful laser light feasibility test. The effect of the absorber tube position along the optical axis on the heat flux profile was analysed and found to be substantial. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the parabolic trough collector using the software applied has been discussed separately.
Źródło:
Archives of Thermodynamics; 2023, 44, 3; 35--61
1231-0956
2083-6023
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Thermodynamics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification of the Parameters of the Model Generating the Microstructure in the Integrated Heating-Remelting-Cooling Process
Autorzy:
Marynowski, Przemysław
Hojny, Marcin
Dębiński, Tomasz
Cedzidło, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27314150.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
heating-remelting-cooling process
Gleeble 3800
Monte Carlo method
grains
ogrzewanie
przetapianie
chłodzenie
Metoda Monte Carlo
ziarna
Opis:
This paper identifies and describes the parameters of a numerical model generating the microstructure in the integrated heating-remelting-cooling process of steel specimens. The numerical model allows the heating-remelting-cooling process to be simulated comprehensively. The model is based on the Monte Carlo (MC) method and the finite element method (FEM), and works within the entire volume of the steel sample, contrary to previous studies, in which calculations were carried out for selected, relatively small areas. Experimental studies constituting the basis for the identification and description of model parameters such as: probability function, initial number of orientations, number of cells and number of MC steps were carried out using the Gleeble 3800 thermo-mechanical simulator. The use of GPU capabilities improved the performance of the numerical model and significantly reduced the simulation time. Thanks to the significant acceleration of simulation times, it became possible to comprehensively implement a numerical model of the heating-transformation-cooling process in the entire volume of the test sample. The paper is supplemented by results of performance tests of the numerical model and results of simulation tests.
Źródło:
Archives of Foundry Engineering; 2023, 23, 2; 72--79
1897-3310
2299-2944
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Foundry Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Investigation of exhaust emissions from the gasoline engine of a light duty vehicle in the Real Driving Emissions test
Autorzy:
Andrych-Zalewska, Monika
Chlopek, Zdzislaw
Pielecha, Jacek
Merkisz, Jerzy
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/24200821.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
internal combustion engine
pollutant emission
RDE test
Monte Carlo method
Opis:
The article contains the research results and analysis of the processes that take place as part of a gasoline engine light duty vehicle Real Driving Emissions test. Dimensionless characteristics of exhaust emission and fuel mass consumption in the RDE test were also determined: emission intensity, particle number emission intensity, fuel mass consumption intensity. An algorithm for determining the characteristics specific distance pollutant emission, specific distance particle number and specific distance fuel mass consumption in the vehicle speed domain in the RDE test was presented using the Monte Carlo method. The determined characteristics were approximated by polynomial functions in the form of sets of points. These relationships were characterized by a large dispersion of values, which was primarily due to the fact that the random values of the averaging limits contain very different engine operating conditions.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 2; art. no. 165880
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo simulation of polarization of light back-scattered from randomly rough surfaces
Autorzy:
Jiang, Yuxiang
Li, Zhenhua
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2202767.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
backscattering
randomly rough surface
Stokes parameters
Monte Carlo method
polarized light
Opis:
Laser detection devices obtain target information from back-scattered light, such as lidar. The recognition rate can be improved by analyzing intensity and polarization of echo signal. In this paper, Monte Carlo method is used to generate a large number of randomly rough surfaces to simulate targets. Every rough surface is discretized into a large number of micro-surface elements. Stokes parameters of back-scattered light are calculated by numerical integration. Incident light is p-, s-, 45° linearly polarized light and right-hand circularly polarized light, respectively. Numerical results show that when s- and p-linearly polarized light incident on a metal rough surface, back-scattered light appears circularly polarized component. Metal rough surface resembles a wave plate with phase difference, with the fast axis parallel or perpendicular to the 45° direction. When linearly polarized light is incident on dielectric rough surface, back-scattered light has no circularly polarized component. Experimental data are consistent with the numerical results. The above research provides a new basis for laser detection device to identify metal targets from the environmental background.
Źródło:
Optica Applicata; 2023, 53, 1; 65--85
0078-5466
1899-7015
Pojawia się w:
Optica Applicata
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk assessment in railway rolling stock planning
Autorzy:
Gołębiowski, Piotr
Góra, Ignacy
Bolzhelarskyi, Yaroslav
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27311787.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
railway rolling stock
transportation planning
risk assessment
risk impact estimation
Monte Carlo method
efficiency
tabor kolejowy
planowanie przewozów
ocena ryzyka
ocena wpływu
metoda Monte Carlo
efektywność
Opis:
Rolling stock planning is one of the steps in the traffic planning process considered from the railway undertaking's point of view. It is directly related to the efficiency of rolling stock utilisation, which should be ensured at the highest possible level in the case of rail transport. The planning work stage is subject to certain risks (threats and opportunities), which, if they materialise, will impact it. It, therefore, makes sense to carry out analyses that can anticipate specific events in good time and introduce appropriate countermeasures in advance. This article aims to conduct a risk assessment process concerning rolling stock planning. It was assumed that the considerations were carried out based on the M_o_R (Management of Risk) methodology. Based on this methodology, risk identification and risk analysis (estimation of risk impact) were carried out. Risk assessment was carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The work identified sixteen risks that represent threats. The principle of risk description was used to identify risks. It requires indicating for each risk the reason for its occurrence and the effect it may have. As a part of risk estimation, variables were selected to assess each risk's impact on the objectives of the stage. Publicly available statistical data were used to define the variables. The variables were expressed in monetary units. The work identified five variables describing impact, which were assigned to the individual risks. As a triangular probability distribution was used for the variability of impact description, the variable's minimum, most likely, and maximum value was identified. A risk assessment was carried out for only two impact description variables (for those variables used to describe the impact of the most significant number of risks). For each variable, statistical parameters were indicated and analysed. The resulting value of the variable describing the impact was then read out for each percentile, and the expected value of the risk was calculated. A detailed risk assessment was made for the lower, middle and upper quartiles. A histogram of the incidence of each variable value was presented, and an assessment was made.
Źródło:
Archives of Transport; 2023, 65, 1; 137--154
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Study on the Effectiveness of Monte Carlo Filtering when Correcting Negative SEA Loss Factors
Autorzy:
Nieradka, Paweł
Dobrucki, Andrzej
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/31339865.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
statistical energy analysis
coupling loss factor
Monte Carlo filtering
power injection method
Opis:
The power injection method (PIM) is an experimental method used to identify the statistical energy analysis (SEA) parameters (called loss factors – LFs) of a vibroacoustic system. By definition, LFs are positive real numbers. However, it is not uncommon to obtain negative LFs during experiments, which is considered a measurement error. To date, a recently proposed method, called Monte Carlo filtering (MCF), of correcting negative coupling loss factors (CLFs) has been validated for systems that meet SEA assumptions. In this article, MCF was validated for point connections and in conditions where SEA assumptions are not met (systems with low modal overlap, non-conservative junctions, strong coupling). The effect of removing MCF bias on the results was also examined. During the experiments, it was observed that the bias is inversely proportional to the damping loss factor of the examined subsystems. The obtained results confirm that the PIM, combined with MCF, allows to determine non-negative SEA parameters in all considered cases.
Źródło:
Archives of Acoustics; 2023, 48, 3; 201-218
0137-5075
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Acoustics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Method for Assessing the Impact of Variable Coal Demand on the Efficiency of Mine Operations
Metoda oceny wpływu zmiennego zapotrzebowania odbiorców węgla na efektywność funkcjonowania kopalń
Autorzy:
Fuksa, Dariusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/28763215.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Przeróbki Kopalin
Tematy:
sensitivity analysis
degree of operating leverage
the SIMPLEX algorithm
the Monte Carlo method
analiza wrażliwości
dźwignia operacyjna
algorytm SIMPLEX
metoda Monte Carlo
Opis:
The method presented in the article is based on Monte Carlo simulation and involves studying the impact of random demand fluctuations on the efficiency of mines and mine groups (companies). For random demand fluctuations, a normal distribution is assumed, and the analysis variants present-ed include: • Adopting the mean and variance values based on retrospective data, • Considering the most probable forecast error resulting from predictive formulas, • Taking into account correlated changes in demand. The results obtained are presented in the form of histograms of the degree of operational lever-age. These histograms allow for predicting how the degree of operational leverage of mines will de-velop, as well as estimating the direction and probability of these changes. The developed and veri-fied sensitivity analysis using real examples constitutes a useful element in rationalizing decision-making processes.
Zaprezentowana w artykule metoda oparta jest na symulacji Monte Carlo i obejmuje badanie wpływu wahań losowych zapotrzebowania na efektywność kopalń oraz ich grup (spółek). Dla losowych wahań zapotrzebowania przyjęto rozkład normalny, a przedstawione warianty analizy uwzględniają: • przyjęcie wartości oczekiwanej i dyspersji według danych retrospektywnych; • przyjęcie najbardziej prawdopodobnego błędu prognozy wynikającego z formuł predykcyjnych; • uwzględnienie skorelowanych zmian zapotrzebowania. Uzyskane wyniki przedstawiono w postaci histogramów stopnia dźwigni operacyjnej. Pozwalają one przewidywać, jak będzie kształtował się stopień dźwigni operacyjnej kopalń, jak również umożliwia oszacować, w którym kierunku zmiany te będą postępować i z jakim prawdopodobieństwem. Opracowana i zweryfikowana na realnych przykładach analiza wrażliwości stanowi przydatny element racjonalizacji procesów decyzyjnych.
Źródło:
Inżynieria Mineralna; 2023, 1; 267--273
1640-4920
Pojawia się w:
Inżynieria Mineralna
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Determination of characteristics of pollutant emission from a vehicle engine under traffic conditions in the engine test
Autorzy:
Andrych-Zalewska, Monika
Chłopek, Zdzisław
Merkisz, Jerzy
Pielecha, Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2202521.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Naukowe Silników Spalinowych
Tematy:
combustion engine
pollutant emission
driving test
engine test
characteristics of pollutant emission
Monte Carlo method
silnik spalinowy
emisja zanieczyszczeń
test jezdny
test silnika
charakterystyki emisji zanieczyszczeń
metoda Monte Carlo
Opis:
The paper describes the method of determination of exhaust emission characteristics from a vehicle engine based on the results obtained in a driving test simulated on an engine dynamometer. These characteristics are the relations between the specific distance emissions and the zero-dimensional characteristics of the process of vehicle velocity: the average velocity value and the average value of the absolute value of the product of vehicle velocity and acceleration. The exhaust emission characteristics are used to simulate the emissions from vehicles operating in different types of traffic conditions. The engine operating states in the engine dynamometer tests were determined by the operating conditions of the vehicle during the test. The authors applied the Monte Carlo method in order to determine the characteristics of different values of the zero-dimensional characteristics of the vehicle velocity process. This enabled the determination of the characteristics based on the test results from a single realization of the process of vehicle velocity. Additionally, the developed method allowed a replacement of the empirical research on the chassis dynamometer with the one performed on the engine dynamometer. The obtained exhaust emission characteristics are in line with the characteristics obtained on the chassis dynamometer in multiple tests.
Źródło:
Combustion Engines; 2022, 61, 4; 58--65
2300-9896
2658-1442
Pojawia się w:
Combustion Engines
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Improving the Environmental Safety Risk Assessment in Construction Using Statistical Analysis Methods
Autorzy:
Smirnova, Elena
Mamedov, Shirali
Shkarovskiy, Alexander
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2174904.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
ecological risk
environmental safety
Monte Carlo method
risk assessment
Opis:
The article aims to assess risk for substantiating the economic and organizational efficiency of construction in the context of ecologic safety. A quantitative risk estimation was made through the Monte Carlo way for negative and positive choices to avoid ecological harm. The simulation algorithm imitated the distribution obtained from the evidence-based fit. The outcomes of a sensitivity investigation are also prepared to verify the suggestion. This risk analysis technique has a digital computer implementation. The simulation data outputs demonstrate the alternative of the general norm of validation and the acceptance of the solution, which is not harmful to the environment. In situations of uncertainty, the decision to select the optimistic flavor with high spending (to retain the reliability of the technics) but less risk pretends to be a decisive factor in the eco-friendly protection strategies of the construction project.
Źródło:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2022, 24; 110--128
1506-218X
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Metoda Monte Carlo w zagadnieniach o dużej liczbie stopni swobody
Monte Carlo method in matters with a large number of degrees of freedom
Autorzy:
Białas, Teresa
Jasiński, Marek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/14150186.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-06-30
Wydawca:
Akademia Nauk Stosowanych w Nowym Sączu
Tematy:
metoda Monte Carlo
metoda quasi-Monte Carlo
ciąg Haltona
szyfrowany ciąg Haltona
dyskrepancja
ciąg van der Corputa
Monte Carlo method
quasi-Monte Carlo method
Halton sequence
scrambled Halton sequence
discrepancy
van der Corput sequence
Opis:
Wraz ze wzrostem możliwości obliczeniowych komputerów i upowszechnieniu technologii obliczeń chmurowych rośnie znaczenie metod symulacyjnych, w szczególności metody Monte Carlo. Jakość uzyskanych wyników w dużej mierze zależy od zastosowanych w tej metodzie ciągów liczbowych. W artykule przybliżono zagadnienie tworzenia oraz zastosowania ciągów pseudolosowych i quasilosowych. Celem niniejszej publikacji było eksperymentalne zbadanie różnic w uzyskanych wynikach przy zastosowaniu różnych ciągów liczbowych dla zagadnień o dużej liczbie stopni swobody.
Along with the increase in computing capabilities of computers and the spread of cloud computing technologies, the importance of simulation methods, in particular the Monte Carlo method, grows. The quality of the obtained results largely depends on the number sequences used in this method. The article presents the issue of creating and applying pseudorandom and quasi-random sequences. The aim of this publication was to experimentally investigate the differences in the obtained results using different number sequences for problems with a large number of degrees of freedom.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne. Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo, Środowisko; 2022, 1/2022 (9); 102-110
2544-6916
2544-7858
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne. Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo, Środowisko
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Niepewność w analizach wypadków na przykładzie zdarzeń z udziałem pieszych
Calculations uncertainty in accident analysis illustrated by events involving a pedestrian
Autorzy:
Guzek, Marek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/26917661.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Instytutu Ekspertyz Sądowych
Tematy:
niepewność obliczeń
metoda Monte Carlo
reakcja kierowcy
zagrożenia
Monte Carlo method
driver reaction
emergency
calculation of uncertainties
Opis:
W opiniowaniu dotyczącym wypadków drogowych zawsze będziemy mieli do czynienia z niepewnością wyników obliczeń. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie wybranych aspektów związanych z oceną niepewności na przykładzie sytuacji zagrożenia potrącenia pieszego. Wykorzystując wyniki badań eksperymentalnych prowadzonych w symulatorze jazdy samochodem wskazano typowe zachowania kierowców w sytuacji zagrożenia w postaci wtargnięcia pieszego przed nadjeżdżający pojazd. Wykorzystując analogiczny scenariusz zdarzenia, prosty model analityczny i założone, ale realistyczne wartości parametrów opisujących kierowcę, pojazd i drogę przedstawione są obliczenia wybranych wskaźników opisujących sytuację biorąc pod uwagę niepewność. Do obliczeń niepewności wykorzystano metodę probabilistyczną Monte Carlo. Wyniki przedstawiono w postaci charakterystyk probabilistycznych długości drogi zatrzymania. Pokazano możliwość określenia przedziałów odległości potrzebnej do zatrzymania pojazdu z określonym poziomem ufności. Pokazano także prawdopodobieństwa wystąpienia potrącenia pieszego. Przedstawione wyniki wskazują z jednej strony na potrzebę uwzględniania niepewności w obliczeniach dotyczących analiz wypadkowych, a z drugiej na duże możliwości i korzyści przy stosowaniu metod probabilistycznych do oceny niepewności.
When preparing expert opinions on road accidents, we will always deal with the uncertainty of calculations results. The aim of the article is to present selected aspects related to the assessment of uncertainty, illustrated by the situation of the risk of hitting a pedestrian. Based on the results of experiments conducted in a car driving simulator, typical behaviors of drivers in the event of accident risk as in the case of a pedestrian’s intrusion in front of an oncoming vehicle are shown. Using an analogous event scenario, a simple analytical model, and assumed but realistic values of the parameters describing the driver, vehicle, and road, the calculations of selected indicators relating to the situation are presented, taking into account the uncertainty. The Monte Carlo probabilistic method was used to calculate the uncertainty. The results are presented as probabilistic characteristics of the stopping distance. The possibility of determining the distance intervals needed to stop the vehicle with a certain confidence level has been shown. The probabilities of hitting a pedestrian are also given. The presented results indicate, on the one hand, the need to take into account the uncertainty in the calculations of the analyses of accidents, and on the other hand, the great opportunities and benefits of using probabilistic methods to assess uncertainty.
Źródło:
Paragraf na Drodze; 2022, 2; 31-45
1505-3520
2956-3631
Pojawia się w:
Paragraf na Drodze
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Robustness study of the road profile estimation technique under uncertainty
Autorzy:
Ben Jdidia, Anoire
Ben Hassen, Dorra
Hentati, Taissir
Abbes, Slim
Haddar, Mohamed
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2104771.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Mechaniki Teoretycznej i Stosowanej
Tematy:
Independent Component Analysis (ICA) method
Monte Carlo (MC) method
road profile
estimation
Opis:
This paper studies profile estimation a road. The prediction has been achieved using the Independent Component Analysis Method (ICA). The vehicle dynamic responses were cal- culated for different road profiles which were defined using an ISO norm. The robustness of this method was proven by implementing the stochastic Monte Carlo (MC) technique in the presence of inevitable uncertainty parameters simultaneously associated with the vehicle mass, spring stiffness and damping for different vehicle speeds and wind values. Convergence was assessed when comparing real profiles to simulated ones. The obtained results prove the efficiency of the ICA in estimating the profile variabilities under uncertainties.
Źródło:
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics; 2022, 60, 3; 521--533
1429-2955
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 151

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