Temat: FORECASTING - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Концептосфера «проспективность» в эвристической мыслительной деятельности и ее роль в процессе коммуникации (межъязыковой аспект)
The conceptual sphere “Prospectiveness” in heuristic mental activity and its role in the process of communication (interlanguage aspect)
Autorzy:: Стеванович, Раиса
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1832830.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2018-12-30
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet w Białymstoku. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu w Białymstoku
Tematy:: проспективность
мыслительная деятельность
эвристика
концептосфера
концепт предвидение
прогнозирование
предвосхищение
prospectivity
thinking activity
heuristics
concept sphere
concept of foresight
forecasting
anticipation
Opis:: The given article presents the analysis of linguistic means used to express the conceptual sphere “Prospectiveness” in both Russian and English languages. The concepts under investigation are: imagination, anticipation, prediction, foreseeing. Great attention in the article is paid to imagination which is a key concept in the conceptual sphere “Prospectiveness”. Concept Imagination is analysed in both English and Russian linguistic world pictures, but a great value is given to its functionary in the English language from the scientific point of view and from the point of view of common sense which is represented in the “naive” linguistic world picture. A great body of English contexts is presented in the article to illustrate the usage of these abstract concepts as well as their definition in Russian and English dictionaries.
Źródło:: Studia Wschodniosłowiańskie; 2018, 18; 235-249
1642-557X
Pojawia się w:: Studia Wschodniosłowiańskie
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Визуализация научной статьи как предпосылка формирования методической компетенции будущих учителей иностранного языка
Research article visualization as a prerequisite for methodological competence-building among pre-service teachers of foreign languages
Autorzy:: Биркун, Людмила Викторовна
Пономарева, Вера Анатольевна
Маримонская, Любовь Андреевна
Ляшенко, Лариса Васильевна
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1409590.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2020-06-30
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:: визуализация
методическая компетентность
коллажное размещение лексики
прогнозирование терминов
джигсо-лекционирование
научно-методические статьи
visualization
methodological competence
collage placement of vocabulary
forecasting terms
jigsaw lectures
scientific and methodological articles
Opis:: Проблема формирования методической компетентности будущих учителей в разных ее аспектах и для разной целевой аудитории была предметом обсуждения во многочисленных методических исследованиях. Различные методики формирования методической компетентности сосредотачиваются на выделении ее основных компонентов или составляющих для дифференциации целей, задач, принципов, способов, этапов получения знаний и выработки навыков, умений, стратегий. Роль визуализации научной статьи как средства формирования методической компетентности до сих пор не была предметом исследования, результаты которого были бы описаны в доступных авторам публикациях. Целью данной работы было выяснение того, какую роль может играть визуализация научной статьи в формировании методической компетентности будущих учителей иностранного языка. Для этого был проведен анализ определений методической компетентности, с учетом нашего теоретико-практического опыта проведения лекций и семинаров на основе студенческих визуализаций научно-методического текста. Рабочей гипотезой данного исследования, в связи с многолетним практическим опытом, было утверждение, что для формирования методической компетентности можно использовать визуализацию научных статей. Основным ориентиром здесь было понимание того, что оптимальные результаты будут получены, если студенческие визуализации научной статьи будут включены в контекст теоретического образования и методического языкового развития будущих учителей. Материалом исследования стали определения методической компетентности и структурно-содержательные составляющие научно-методической статьи, а также графические средства визуализации. Исследованный материал дает нам возможность приоритизировать терминологическую компетентность как тот компонент методической компетентности, который можно успешно формировать с помощью визуализации научно-методической статьи путем моделирования грамотной последовательности схематически-табличной наглядности, имитирующей процессы восприятия научного текста и порождения на его основе методических рассуждений. Для того, чтобы процесс формирования методической компетентности становился интегрированным, с относительно одновременным развитием ее остальных компонентов, возникает необходимость его включения в групповое джигсо-лекционирование.
The problem of building the methodological competence of future teachers in its various aspects and for different target audiences has been the subject of discussion in numerous methodological studies. Various techniques for the formation of methodological competence focus on identifying its main components or components for differentiating goals, objectives, principles, methods, stages of obtaining knowledge and developing skills, abilities, and strategies. The role of visualization of a scientific article as a means of methodological competence-building has not yet been the subject of research, the results of which would be described in publications available to authors. The purpose of this work was to find out what role the visualization of a scientific article can play in the formation of methodological competence of future teachers of a foreign language. With this end in view, an analysis of the definitions of methodological competence was carried out, linking to our theoretical and practical experience in conducting lectures and seminars based on students’ visualizations of scientific and methodological texts. The working hypothesis of this study in connection with many years of practical experience was that the visualization of scientific articles can be used to develop methodological competence. The main guideline was based on the understanding that optimal results would be obtained if students’ visualizations of a scientific article were set in the context of theoretical education and methodological language development of future teachers. The material of the research was the definitions of methodological competence and the structural and content-related components of a scientific and methodological article, as well as graphic visualization tools. The studied material afford an opportunity to prioritize terminological competence as that component of methodological competence that can be successfully formed by visualizing a scientific and methodological article by modelling a competent sequence of schematic-tabular visibility, imitating the processes of perceiving a scientific text and generating methodological reasoning on its basis. In order for the process of formation of methodological competence to become integrated, so that its other components develop relatively concurrently, it is necessary to embed this process in group jigsaw lectures.
Źródło:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Linguistica Rossica; 2020, 19; 13-28
1731-8025
2353-9623
Pojawia się w:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Linguistica Rossica
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: The energy consumption forecasting in Mongolia based on Box-Jenkins method (Arima model)
Autorzy:: Zolboo, Gansukh
Adiya, Bor
Bilguun, Enkhbayar
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/101770.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2019
Wydawca:: Instytut Polityki Energetycznej im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza
Tematy:: energy forecasting
energy consumption
ARIMA model
Box-Jenkins method
Opis:: The primary products of the power industry are electric energy and thermal energy. Thus, forecasting electric energy consumption is significant for short and long term energy planning. ARIMA model has adopted to forecast energy consumption because of its precise prediction for energy consumption. Our result has shown that annual average electric energy consumption will be 10,628 million kWh per year during 2019-2030 which approximately 3.3 percent growth per annum. At the moment, there is not a practice solution for the storage of electricity in Mongolia. Therefore, energy supply and demand have to be balanced in real-time for operational stability. Without an accurate forecast, the end-users may experience brownouts or even blackouts or the industry could be faced with sudden accidents due to the energy demand. For this reason, energy consumption forecasting is essential to power system stability and reliability.
Źródło:: Energy Policy Studies; 2019, 1 (3); 70-77
2545-0859
Pojawia się w:: Energy Policy Studies
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: MODELE PROGNOZ EKONOMETRYCZNYCH
MODEL OF ASSESMENT ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS
Autorzy:: Zmarzłowski, Krzysztof
Karwański, Marek
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453874.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2015
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:: krzywa REC
modele prognostyczne
sektor giełdowy
REC curve
forecasting models
exchange sectors
Opis:: Krótko i średnioterminowe prognozy często oparte są na różnych modelach ekonometrycznych. Dla modeli stosowanych do pojedynczych spółek, mamy do dyspozycji szereg miar, pozwalających porównywać je od strony dokładności uzyskiwanych rezultatów. Sytuacja komplikuje się, gdy prognozy dotyczą grupy spółek bądź sektorów gospodarczych. W pracy autorzy proponują nowoczesne narzędzie graficzne oparte na krzywej REC (Regression Error Characteristic). Detaliczne wyniki stosowania tej metody oceny modeli zostaną zaprezentowane w zastosowaniu do polskich firm z sektora budowlanego, notowanych na giełdzie.
The main task of the analyst is to select the optimal model. For models applied to individual companies, we have a series of measures allowing to compare them from as well as the accuracy and economic point of view. The situation becomes more sophisticated when the forecasts apply to a group of companies or economic sectors. The authors attempt to build a universal graphical tools based on the REC curve. Results of this method will be used to forecast models of selected sectors Polish companies listed on the stock exchange.
Źródło:: Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2015, 16, 4; 280-289
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:: Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: The importance of data revisions for statistical inference
Znaczenie rewizji danych dla wnioskowania statystycznego
Autorzy:: Ziembińska, Paulina
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/985676.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2021
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:: data revisions
real-time data
time series analysis
forecasting
rewizje danych
dane w czasie rzeczywistym
analiza szeregów czasowych
prognozowanie
Opis:: The aim of the study is a quantitative analysis of revisions conducted by means of a new, real-time macroeconomic dataset for Poland, designed on the basis of the Statistical bulletin (Biuletyn statystyczny) published by Statistics Poland, covering the period from as early as 1995 until 2017. Polish data have positively verified a number of hypotheses concerning the impact of data revisions on the modelling process. Procedures assessing the properties of time series can yield widely discrepant results, depending on the extent to which the applied data have been revised. A comparison of the fitted ARIMA models for series of initial and final data demonstrates that the fitted models are similar for the majority of variables. In the cases where the form of the model is identical for both series, the coefficients retain their scale and sign. Most differences between coefficients result from a different structure of the fitted model, which causes differ-ences in the autoregressive structure and can have a considerable impact on the ex ante infer-ence. A prognostic experiment confirmed these observations. For a large number of variables, the total impact of revisions on the forecasting process exceeds 10%. Extreme cases, where the impact goes beyond 100%, or situations where data have a direct impact on the forecast sign, are also relatively frequent. Taking these results into account by forecasters could significantly improve the quality of their predictions. The forecast horizon has a minor impact on these conclusions. The article is a continuation of the author's work from 2017.
Celem pracy jest ilościowa analiza rewizji danych makroekonomicznych w czasie rzeczywistym dla Polski pochodzących z nowego zbioru utworzonego na podstawie „Biuletynu statystycznego” GUS i obejmującego okres od 1995 do 2017 r. Polskie dane pozytywnie weryfikują wiele hipotez dotyczących wpływu rewizji danych na proces modelowania. Procedury oceniające własności szeregów czasowych mogą dawać istotnie różne wyniki w zależności od tego, jak bardzo rewidowane dane zostaną użyte. Porównanie dopasowanych modeli ARIMA dla szeregów pierwszych i finalnych odczytów wskazuje, że w przypadku większości zmiennych dopasowane modele są podobne. Gdy postać modelu jest taka sama dla obu szeregów, współczynniki zachowują skalę i znak. Większość różnic we współczynnikach wynika z odmiennej struktury dopasowanego modelu, co wpływa na różnice w strukturze autoregresyjnej i może mieć niemały wpływ na wnioskowanie ex ante. Potwierdza to eksperyment prognostyczny. Dla dużej części zmiennych całkowity wpływ rewizji na proces prognozowania wynosi powyżej 10%. Nie są też wyjątkiem ekstremalne przypadki, w których ten wpływ przekracza 100%, czy sytuacje, w których dane bezpośrednio wpływają na znak prognozy. Uwzględnienie tych wyników przez prognostów mogłoby znacząco poprawić jakość predykcji. Horyzont prognozy ma niewielki wpływ na te konkluzje. Artykuł jest kontynuacją pracy autorki z 2017 r.
Źródło:: Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician; 2021, 66, 2; 7-24
0043-518X
Pojawia się w:: Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Forecasting the distribution of precipitate diameters in the presence of changes in the structure of the material
Autorzy:: Zieliński, A.
Miczka, M.
Golański, G.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/356680.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:: microstructure
precipitates
statistics
forecasting
ageing
Opis:: The results of investigations on the microstructure of T23 and T24 low-alloy steels as well as P91 and P92 high-chromium steels in the as-received condition and after 70.000 h annealing at 550-650°C are presented. The quantitative analysis of the existing precipitates was performed for representative images of microstructure. The statistical analysis of collected data allowed the parameters of a selected theoretical statistical distribution to be estimated. A forecast of average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 100,000 hours at 550 and 600°C for T23 and T24 steels and at 600 and 650°C for P91 and P92 steels was calculated. The obtained results of investigations have made it possible to compare changes in the microstructure of various steel grades due to long-term impact of elevated temperature. They have also confirmed the possibility of using, in evaluating the degradation degree of materials in use, the forecasting methods that derive from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and forecast by analogy methods. The presented approach allows the development of a forecast of precipitate diameter probability density under the microstructure instability conditions for selected steel grades. The assessment of material condition that takes into consideration, but is not limited to, the precipitate diameter measurement is useful as an assessment component in estimating the time of safe service of power unit elements working under creep conditions.
Źródło:: Archives of Metallurgy and Materials; 2017, 62, 1; 273-280
1733-3490
Pojawia się w:: Archives of Metallurgy and Materials
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Forecasting the Particle Diameter Size Distribution in P92 (X10CrWMoVNb9-2) Steel After Long-Term Ageing at 600 and 650°C
Autorzy:: Zieliński, A.
Sroka, M.
Miczka, M.
Śliwa, A.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/355265.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:: P92 steel
microstructure
precipitates
statistics
forecasting
Opis:: The investigations on microstructure of P92 steel in the as-received condition and after 10⁵h ageing at 600 and 650°C were carried out. For the recorded images of microstructure, the quantitative analysis of precipitates was performed. On that basis, a statistical analysis of collected data was made with the aim of estimating parameters of selected theoretical statistical distribution. Then, the forecast for average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 1,5*10⁵h at 600 and 650°C was calculated. The obtained results of investigations confirm the possibility of using, in evaluation of degradation degree for materials in use, the forecasting methods derived from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and methods of forecasting by analogy.
Źródło:: Archives of Metallurgy and Materials; 2016, 61, 2A; 753-760
1733-3490
Pojawia się w:: Archives of Metallurgy and Materials
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Wykorzystanie modelu PCM w prognozowaniu potencjału zawodowego kandydatów do pracy
Using PCM model in the prediction of career potential of candidates for a job
Autorzy:: Zięba, Anna
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424863.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2014
Wydawca:: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:: forecasting
career potential
Polytomous IRT Model
Partial Credit Model
Opis:: The issue of career potential is currently very popular. Experience and potential − that is what the most of employers are looking for. Employers are wondering whether the candidate has the potential to take on a new challenge training. The article attempts to bring the issue to measure the career potential. It presents the most common tools used by employers in the recruitment process and the most common mistakes committed by them. In the next part PCM model is shown, which can be a helpful tool in recruitment procedures − a tool used to assess the potential of training.
Źródło:: Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2014, 4(46); 43-51
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:: Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Forecasting the equity premium: Do deep neural network models work?
Autorzy:: Zhou, Xianzheng
Zhou, Hui
Long, Huaigang
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/23943440.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023
Wydawca:: Fundacja Naukowa Instytut Współczesnych Finansów
Tematy:: equity premium
return predictability
deep neural network
asset allocation
forecasting performance
Opis:: This paper constructs deep neural network (DNN) models for equity-premium forecasting. We compare the forecasting performance of DNN models with that of ordinary least squares (OLS) and historical average (HA) models. The DNN models robustly work best and significantly outperform both OLS and HA models in both in- and out-of-sample tests and asset allocation exercises. Specifically, DNN models generate monthly out-of-sample R2 of 3.42% and an annual utility gain of 2.99% for a mean-variance investor from 2011:1 to 2016:12. Moreover, the forecasting performance of DNN models is enhanced by adding additional 14 variables selected from finance literature.
Źródło:: Modern Finance; 2023, 1, 1; 1-11
2956-7742
Pojawia się w:: Modern Finance
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Yellowfin tuna (Thunnusalbacares) fishing ground forecasting model based on bayes classifier in the South China Sea
Autorzy:: Zhou, W.
Li, A.
Ji, S.
Qiu, Y.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/258994.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Politechnika Gdańska. Wydział Inżynierii Mechanicznej i Okrętownictwa
Tematy:: Bayes classifier
South China Sea
yellowfin tuna
fishing ground forecasting
Opis:: Using the yellowfin tuna (Thunnusalbacares,YFT)longline fishing catch data in the open South China Sea (SCS) provided by WCPFC, the optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (OISST) from CPC/NOAA and multi-satellites altimetric monthly averaged product sea surface height (SSH) released by CNES, eight alternative options based on Bayes classifier were made in this paper according to different strategies on the choice of environment factors and the levels of fishing zones to classify the YFT fishing ground in the open SCS. The classification results were compared with the actual ones for validation and analyzed to know how different plans impact on classification results and precision. The results of validation showed that the precision of the eight options were 71.4%, 75%, 70.8%, 74.4%, 66.7%, 68.5%, 57.7% and 63.7% in sequence, the first to sixth among them above 65% would meet the practical application needs basically. The alternatives which use SST and SSH simultaneously as the environmental factors have higher precision than which only use single SST environmental factor, and the consideration of adding SSH can improve the model precision to a certain extent. The options which use CPUE’s mean ± standard deviation as threshold have higher precision than which use CPUE’s 33.3%-quantile and 66.7%-quantile as the threshold
Źródło:: Polish Maritime Research; 2017, S 2; 140-146
1233-2585
Pojawia się w:: Polish Maritime Research
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 11.

Tytuł:: Forecasting risk of decision – making processes
Autorzy:: Zemke, Jerzy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425110.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2013
Wydawca:: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:: risk
risk model
risk measures
risk states
forecasting risk states
Opis:: What is the risk of decision-making processes, what causes it? Most typically, definitions of risk are ex post – they are looking at risk as a difference between expectations of results of actions taken and the actual performance. This is a considerable inconvenience, especially in cases when processes are of a long-term nature. Thus, is it possible to measure risk in the course of the decision-making processes? How can this be done and in what conditions can risk measures be extrapolated? An analysis of the definitions of risk shows that the one which is the most useful for solving the problem undertaken in the present study, is given by K. and T. Jajuga, “…the term of risk will refer to a decision, or, to be more precise, to an action taken as a result. One may therefore speak of taking risky decisions”. The authors make it clear that a risky decision is uncertainty as to “…the possibility for people to control the factors that determine the reality”. This suggestion, if accepted, enables one to construct a risk model as a random vector whose components are control variables of the decisionmaking processes taking place. In consequence, this makes it possible to estimate statistic measures of risk. Risk measures indicating the level of risk at moment t of decision-making processes represent a foundation of the problem announced by the title of the present study. Although they are merely a set of risk estimations, i.e. an assessment of its state, they nevertheless provide an opportunity to forecast risk levels within the period in which the processes occur, thus providing valuable information for decisions-makers.
Źródło:: Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 30-39
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:: Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 12.

Tytuł:: Identification of research areas in fuel sales forecasting within the business ecosystem context: A review, theoretical synthesis, and extension
Autorzy:: Zema, Tomasz
Sulich, Adam
Hernes, Marcin
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/31234040.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2024
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:: fuel sales forecasting
business ecosystems
hybrid literature review
petroleum products
Opis:: Aim/purpose – This paper aims to explore both fuel sales forecasting and the business ecosystem, subsequently reversing the focus to examine the business ecosystem in the context of fuel sales forecasting. Accompanying this research objective are the following research questions: 1) Does the order in which the topics of “business ecosystems” and “fuel sales forecasting” are searched affect the search results? 2) Which keywords frequently co-occur in publications related to “business ecosystems” and “fuel sales forecasting”? 3) What is the relationship between the terms “fuel sales forecasting” and “business ecosystem”? Design/methodology/approach – The study employs a hybrid review methodology, utilizing specific queries within the Scopus database to identify research themes and motifs. This hybrid form of literature review integrates the tenets of both bibliometric and structured reviews. In this study, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework was employed. The visual analysis was conducted using VOSviewer bibliometric software, with a focus on keywords relevant to the relationship between fuel sales forecasting and business ecosystem terms. Findings – Key findings include the identification of co-occurring keywords in fuel sales forecasting and business ecosystem theory literature. The study reveals research gaps and potential areas for future study in business ecosystems, highlighting the impact of fuel sales forecasting in various economic sectors beyond traditional ones, like forestry, agriculture, and fisheries. Utilizing a hybrid literature study research method, the paper analyses data from scientific publications in the Scopus database and employs VOSviewer software to develop bibliometric maps of keyword co-occurrences. Research implications/limitations – The research underscores the broad implications of fuel sales forecasting within a business ecosystem context and identifies areas lacking in-depth study. This study maps scientific publications, identifying the intellectual structure and current research trends. This study contributes to the understanding of fuel sales forecasting within the business ecosystem context as a part of the energy sector transition. Originality/value/contribution – This paper contributes to the field of science and practice by identifying research areas integrating fuel sales forecasting within the business ecosystem construct. It indicates future promising research avenues for researchers and industry professionals, aiming to guide ongoing research. The article addresses a significant theme that warrants scholarly attention. This study allows researchers to define the research gaps covered by published articles and indicate the directions of scientific development.
Źródło:: Journal of Economics and Management; 2024, 46; 79-110
1732-1948
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Economics and Management
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 13.

Tytuł:: Monitoring the change in land surface temperature and urban areas using Satellite images. Case study Kafr El-Sheikh City – Egypt
Autorzy:: Zeidan, Zaki M.
Beshr, Ashraf A. A.
Soliman, Sanaa S.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/145306.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2019
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:: obszar miejski
zdjęcia satelitarne
prognozowanie
urban area
ERDAS Imagine software
satellite image
LST
ArcGIS 10.3
forecasting
Opis:: In recent years, the rate of urban growth has increased rapidly especially in Egypt, due to the increase in population growth. The Egyptian government has set up new cities and established large factories, roads and bridges in new places to solve this trouble. This paper investigates the change monitoring of land surface temperature, urban and agricultural area in Egypt especially Kafr EL-Sheikh city as case study using high resolution satellite images. Nowadays, satellite images are playing an important role in detecting the change of urban growth. In this paper, cadastral map for Kafr El-Sheikh city with scale 1:5000, images from Landsat 7 with accuracy 30 meters; images from Google Earth with accuracy 0.5 meter; and images from SAS Planet with accuracy 0.5 m are used where all images are available during the study period (for year’s 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2017). The analysis has been performed in a platform of Geographical Information System (GIS) configured with Remote Sensing system using ArcGIS 10.3 and ERDAS Imagine image processing software. From the processing and analysis of the specified images during the studied time period, it is found that the building area was increased by 28.8% from year 2003 up to 2017 from Google Earth images and increased by percentage 34.4% from year 2003 up to year 2017 from supervised Landsat 7 images but for unsupervised Landsat 7 images, the building area was increased by percentage 35.9%. In this study, land surface temperature (LST) was measured also from satellite images for different years through 2003 until 2017. It is deduced that the increase in the building area (urban growth) in the specified city led to increase the land surface temperature (LST) which will affect some agricultural crops. Depending on the results of images analysis, Forecasting models using different algorithms for the urban and agricultural area was built. Finally, it is deduced that integration of spacebased remote sensing technology with GIS tools provide better platform to perform such activities.
Źródło:: Geodesy and Cartography; 2019, 68, 2; 389-404
2080-6736
2300-2581
Pojawia się w:: Geodesy and Cartography
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 14.

Tytuł:: Analiza niezawodności układów hydraulicznych wspomagających systemy sterowania statków powietrznych
The forecasting of the reliability factor of hydraulic flight control systems of aircraft
Autorzy:: Zboiński, M.
Spychała, J.
Deliś, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/257855.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:: statek powietrzny
układ hydrauliczny
kontaminacja
wskaźniki niezawodnościowe
prognozowanie
aircraft
hydraulic system
contamination
reliability factor
forecasting
Opis:: Problem wpływu zanieczyszczeń na układy hydrauliczne i problemy związane z uszkodzeniami zużyciowymi par współpracujących zespołów hydraulicznych, które prowadzą do awarii całego systemu są niezwykle ważne w procesie eksploatacji statków powietrznych. W dostępnej literaturze krajowej brak jest szerszych opracowań ujmujących problematykę dotyczącą badań wrażliwości zanieczyszczeniowej układów hydraulicznych w kontekście diagnostyki eksploatacyjnej. Pojęcie badanie wrażliwości zanieczyszczeniowej urządzeń układów hydraulicznych ma różne znaczenie dla producenta i użytkownika. Producent przeprowadza przede wszystkim sprawdzenie poprawności konstrukcyjnej, właściwego doboru materiałów, tak aby wyrób miał odpowiednie wskaźniki techniczne, niezawodnościowe i eksploatacyjne przy zapewnieniu korzystnych dla producenta wskaźników ekonomicznych. Użytkownik natomiast pragnie posiadać wiedzę na temat wskaźników eksploatacyjnych zapewniających określoną trwałość urządzenia i możliwość prognozowania czasu bezawaryjnej pracy, czyli bezpieczeństwa i niezawodności działania układu.
One of the most severe problems during aircraft operations is hydraulic system contamination, because they lead to failure. Scientific literature does not include articles about problems with testing hydraulic contamination sensitivity in aircraft operations tasks. Modern technological and economic optimisation of the processes of operating hydraulic systems requires lifetimes of system components to be defined, depending on operating conditions. There are two views of testing hydraulic contamination sensitivity: one for designers and the second for maintenance personnel. Designers need reliability factors that play with economic factors. Maintenance personnel have to know safety and reliability operational working time - service life.
Źródło:: Problemy Eksploatacji; 2011, 1; 195-203
1232-9312
Pojawia się w:: Problemy Eksploatacji
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 15.

Tytuł:: Comparative analysis of methods for hourly electricity demand forecasting in the absence of data - a case study
Analiza porównawcza metod prognozowania godzinnego zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną przy brakach w danych - studium przypadku
Autorzy:: Zawadzki, Jan
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2194900.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023
Wydawca:: Akademia Bialska Nauk Stosowanych im. Jana Pawła II w Białej Podlaskiej
Tematy:: forecasting
missing data
time series
high frequency
Opis:: Scope and purpose of work: This paper examines the impact of the number of gaps in data, the analytical form, and the model type selection criterion on the accuracy of interpolation and extrapolation forecasts for hourly data. Materials and methods: Forecasts were developed on the basis of predictors that are based on: classical time series forecasting models and regression time series forecasting models, hybrid time series forecasting models and hybrid regression forecasting models for uncleared series, and exponential smoothing models for cleared series of two or three types of seasonal fluctuations, with minimum estimates of errors in interpolation or extrapolation forecasts. Results: Adaptive and hybrid regression models have proved to have the most favorable predictive properties. Most hybrid time series models for systematic and non-systematic gaps and for both analytical forms are single models that generally describe fluctuations within a 24-hour cycle. Conclusions: The lowest estimators of prediction errors involving interpolation were obtained for exponential smoothing models, followed by hybrid regression models. A reverse sequence was obtained for extrapolative forecasting.
Źródło:: Economic and Regional Studies; 2023, 16, 1; 34-50
2083-3725
2451-182X
Pojawia się w:: Economic and Regional Studies
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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