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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 146
Tytuł:
Analiza taksonomiczna w zastosowaniu do badań koniunktury budownictwa
Taxonomic Analysis of Economic Situation in Construction Industry
Autorzy:
Marcinkowska-Lewandowska, Wanda
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500640.pdf
Data publikacji:
1998
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Budownictwo, Metody statystyczne, Metody ekonometryczne, Analiza taksonomiczna
Business trends, Construction sector, Statistical methods, Econometric methodology, Taxonomic analysis
Opis:
This chapter contains analysis of questionnaires data base which was built by selecting one of several qualitative characteristics formulated with relation to each of the issues included in the questionnaire. The subject of examination is a set of multi- profile elements. In the initial part of the chapter, a method of division of such a set of objects into subsets including similar objects has been presented. Similarity of the objects is the basis for describing a function of distance between them. Then, by analyzing values of distance function, the entire set is divided into clusters. Research premise is executed in two sections. By calculating the distance between characteristics of analyzed phenomenon, which are represented by items in the questionnaire, a group of similar features - or lack of relationship between features - are determined. Second facet of the analysis consists in determining the distances of multi-profile objects from fixed standards, and division of the set of objects into homogenous layers. In paragraphs that follow, results of research conducted using the above method, and concerning changes in economic situation of Polish construction industry in 1993 - 1997 are shown. On the basis of the questionnaire data from the Institute of Economic Development and obtained from construction enterprises, mutual relationships between measures of economic situation have been examined. Moreover, changes in economic situation of construction enterprises in comparison to their distance from standards of economic situation have been analyzed, both in the entire population of enterprises and in two sectors of construction industry: private and public.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1998, 60; 129-150
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Miękkie wskaźniki stanu gospodarki
Soft indicaiors of economic situation
Autorzy:
Rocki, Marek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500717.pdf
Data publikacji:
1998
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Modele ekonometryczne, Wskaźniki ekonomiczne,Modelowanie miękkie
Business trends, Econometric models, Economic indicators, Soft modelling
Opis:
In this chapter we will consider one of many possible methods of constructing a comprehensive indicator of economic situation on the basis of individual estimates. We will discuss the method of soft modeling. It is based on analysis of relationships between latent variables by which we mean those which are not (or cannot be) directly measured. A soft model consists of two submodels: an internal and external one. Internal model is a system of equations of unobservable (latent) variables; it describes relationships that result from assumed economic theory. External model is a system of relationships between unobservable and observable variables (so-called indicators) which are used to indirectly describe latent variables. We distinguish reflecting and creating indicators. Construction of models of economic situation for Polish and Italian Industries has been described. Specification and estimation results have been compared to show the possibility of analysis of factors influencing economic situation by using soft models. The models presented are based on assumption that among the processes that shape economic situation we can distinguish long-term economic conditions (growth trend), short-term (current) economic conditions, and changes in long-term economic conditions. Specification of indicators is based on IRG and ISCO questionnaires. We assume that futurę economic conditions are significantly influenced by optimists who give favorable answers to questions included in questionnaires. This is the basis for selecting creating indicators. We also assume that reflecting indicators are represented by balances of favorable and unfavorable answers which corresponds to hypothesis that economic conditions are reflected in “average” opinion of entrepreneurs. Results of calculations (estimation of parameters and values of latent variables) suggest that the larger percentage of entrepreneurs form optimistic assessment of orders, the faster economic growth proceeds. In case of short-term economic conditions, creating indicators are the following: current favorable assessments of changes in employment level, output, and overall assessment of economic situation. Changes in long-term economic conditions are reflected in balances of expectations concerning changes in output, orders, export orders, financial standing, and overall assessment of economic situation; they are created, however, by expectations as to output increase and improvement in overall economic situation.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1998, 60; 107-127
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wpływ oczekiwań na kształtowanie się indeksów giełdowych na przykładzie WIG
Expectations and the Stock Exchange Index
Autorzy:
Osińska, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500584.pdf
Data publikacji:
1999
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Modele ekonometryczne, Indeks giełdowy
Business trends, Business cycles, Econometric models, Stock market indexes
Opis:
The author presents an econometric model which tries to explain the development of the daily index of Warsaw Stock Exchange by some other variables of the fmancial market, including the actual and expected values of the DM/PLN exchange rate and Dow-Jones index. The results indicate that Warsaw Stock Exchange does not confirm the effective market hypothesis. This would legitimate the attempts at modelling and forecasting of the developments in the stock market.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 85-89
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model
Rynki finansowe a wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce: analiza symulacyjna w oparciu o model ekonometryczny
Autorzy:
Wdowiński, Piotr
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907294.pdf
Data publikacji:
2005
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
financial market
economic growth
econometric model
simulation
Polska
Opis:
W artykule przedstawiliśmy analizę symulacyjną rozwoju gospodarki Polski w oparciu o kwartalny model ekonometryczny. Model ten składa się z 22 równań stochastycznych, które opisują związki rynku finansowego z sektorem realnym gospodarki. Celem badania jest zaprezentowanie wpływu zmian krajowych i zagranicznych stóp procentowych oraz kursu walutowego EUR/USD na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce w okresie Q2, 1993-Q2, 2003.
In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects o f changes to domestic and foreign interest rates and the EUR/USD exchange rate on economic growth in Poland over the period Q2, 1993 - Q2, 2003.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2005, 192
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Średniookresowa prognoza rozwoju gospodarczego Polski. Podtrzymane ożywienie
A Medium-Term Forecast for Poland’s Economic Growth: Sustained Recovery
Autorzy:
Welfe, Władysław
Florczak, Waldemar
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575805.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007-06-30
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
econometric models
forecasts
economic mechanisms
Opis:
The authors offer a medium-term projection for Poland’s economic growth in 2007-2011. The forecast was prepared with the use of an annual macroeconomic model developed at the Łódź University Faculty of Econometric Models and Forecasts. The model, which takes into account a number of exogenous variables and the latest trends in both the Polish economy and around the world, yields moderately optimistic conclusions about the possible paths of the country’s economic growth. In addition to the forecast, the authors discuss basic problems and threats to Poland’s future economic growth.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2007, 216, 5-6; 85-96
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zastosowanie modelu wzrostu gospodarczego do szacowania optymalnej nierówności płac
The Use of the Economic Growth Model for the Estimation of Optimal Pay Disparities
Autorzy:
Kumor, Paweł
Sztaudynger, Jan J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/574530.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007-03-31
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
economic growth
econometric model
pay disparities
Opis:
The authors have developed an econometric growth model to estimate an “optimal” diversification of wages. Pay disparities are optimal when they produce the highest rate of GDP growth. An optimal diversification of wages can be calculated by introducing a variable thanks to which the model will measure “parabolic” disparities. The authors advance a hypothesis that there is an optimal level for the diversification of wages. If pay disparities are smaller than optimal, the most creative, hard-working and efficient individuals are insufficiently rewarded and are not properly encouraged to take advantage of their capabilities in contributing to gross domestic product. If wage disparities are greater than optimal, employees with lower qualifications are underpaid. This can be accompanied by feelings of social injustice and a sense of exploitation and impoverishment. This harms interpersonal ties and the relationship between employees and employers, in addition to limiting people’s confidence and reducing social capital. In such a situation, low-paid employees have little incentive to work. They only have enough motivation to satisfy their minimum biological needs and stay above the poverty line. Underpaid employees display insufficient creativity and dedication. The empirical analysis conducted by the authors for the Polish economy applies to the 1986-2004 period. The analysis shows that pay disparities are higher than optimal and have grown steadily since 1999. A statistically significant slowdown in productivity caused by an excessive diversification of wages occurred in 2003 and 2004. At the time, productivity dropped by around 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2007, 214, 3; 49-65
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Efektywna podaż pracy a wzrost gospodarczy
Effective Labor Supply and Economic Growth
Autorzy:
Florczak, Waldemar
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/574819.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008-12-31
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
effective labor supply
human capital
econometric model
Mincer wage equation
sustained economic growth
supply-side growth factors
demographic structure of the population
Opis:
The article discusses the relationship between effective labor supply-determined by factors that are linked either directly or indirectly with human capital-and sustained economic growth per capita. On the basis of an expanded Mincer wage equation, the author estimates effective labor supply, taking into account effects linked with human capital, and conducts an econometric analysis of changes in the average working time in Poland in 1970-2005. The author zeroes in on long-term relationships and checks the results of his analysis against a body of statistical data. The diagnostic tools used by the author include the Gauss-Markov theorem, a method for evaluating statistical errors developed by mathematicians Carl Friedrich Gauss and Andrey Markov. According to Florczak, standard labor supply analyses are often inaccurate because they overlook factors linked with working time, the quality of labor, and the overall social and demographic conditions. In an era of globalization, the author says, if it wants to maintain its international economic competitiveness, Poland should increase the role of “extensive” factors of production by boosting the economic activity of the population.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2008, 228, 11-12; 21-46
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Ekonometryczna weryfikacja efektu aglomeracji netto w gospodarce polskiej w latach 2000–2005
Econometric Verification of Net Agglomeration Effect in Poland, 2000–2005
Autorzy:
Burdziak, Adrian
Myślińska, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/414589.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Instytut Ameryk i Europy. Centrum Europejskich Studiów Regionalnych i Lokalnych (EUROREG)
Tematy:
efekt aglomeracji
aktywność ekonomiczna
metody ekonometryczne
net agglomeration effect
economic activity
econometric methods
Opis:
W artykule postawiono hipotezę o dodatnim efekcie aglomeracji netto w podregionach Polski w latach 2000–2005. Efekt aglomeracji netto to relatywnie nowa koncepcja teoretyczna, która objaśnia przestrzenne zróżnicowanie aktywności ekonomicznej. Do prowadzonych analiz wykorzystano funkcję koncentracji produkcji w wersji zaproponowanej przez Cicconego i Halla. Hipotezę weryfikowano za pomocą metod ekonometrycznych. Wielowariantowe pomiary dały niejednoznaczne rezultaty. Metody panelowe okazały się nieefektywne w odróżnieniu od metod pool. Jako aproksymantę poziomu technicznego gospodarki zastosowano skumulowaną liczbę patentów. Wybór patentów krajowych spośród wariantów pool umożliwił zredukowanie problemów związanych z korelacją zmiennych objaśniających. To podejście pozwala na wyciągnięcie wniosków o dodatnim efekcie aglomeracji netto.
The authors put a hypothesis of positive net agglomeration effect in Polish subregions in 2000–2005. The net agglomeration effect is a relatively new theory explaining spatial differences in economic activity. A production concentration function suggested by Ciccone and Hall is used in analysis. The hypothesis was verified with econometric methods. Multiple scenarios gave ambiguous results. Panel methods appeared to be ineffective, as opposed to pool methods. Cumulated number of patents was used as an approximation of the level of technical development. Among pool scenarios, domestic patents allowed to reduce problems connected with co-relation of explanatory variables. This approach gives conclusions about positive net agglomeration effect.
Źródło:
Studia Regionalne i Lokalne; 2008, 2(32); 72-91
1509-4995
Pojawia się w:
Studia Regionalne i Lokalne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Inflation Dynamics in the "New" EU Member State : Poland 1998-2006
Dynamika inflacji w nowych krajach członkowskich UE : Polska 1998-2006
Autorzy:
Rusek, Antonin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/904947.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
inflation
econometric modeling
long-term equilibrium price level
inflacja
modelowanie ekonometryczne
długookresowa równowaga poziomu cen
Opis:
The reduction of inflation to an average EU level is a necessary precondition for any new EU member state to join the Euro area Inflation in Poland is analyzed by using the monetarist P-star model. It appears that in the Polish case the P-star model describes the Polish inflationary process reasonably well. However, adjustment to the equilibrium level (inflation target) is rather slow.
Redukcja inflacji do średniego poziomu UE stanowi dla niektórych nowych krajów członkowskich UE wymóg konieczny do ich wstąpienia do strefy Euro. Inflacja w Polsce jest analizowana przy zastosowaniu monetarystycznego modelu "P-star" (P*). Okazuje się, że w przypadku Polski model ten opisuje dynamikę inflacji w latach 1998-2006 nadspodziewanie dobrze. Jakkolwiek, dojście aktualnego wskaźnika cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych do poziomu długookresowej równowagi P* jest raczej powolne.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2008, 223
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania oczekiwanej długości życia w Polsce
The Macroeconomic Determinants of Life Expectancy in Poland
Autorzy:
Florczak, Waldemar
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575761.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009-06-30
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
life expectancy
law of mortality
determinants of mortality
stepwise regression method
econometric models
economic growth
Opis:
The paper begins with the discussion of a cause-and-effect econometric model describing life expectancy in Poland in three variants: for men, women, and both sexes at the same time. The analysis is preceded by a brief review of research reports on the subject, with a special focus on empirical applications in the context of adequate explanatory variables. The estimation of the parameters was made with the use of a stepwise regression method, while the final version of the model was selected on the basis of a reliable statistical test, the author says. The research shows that the following variables had a statistically significant impact on life expectancy in Poland in the analyzed period (1975-2005): urbanization, the quality of healthcare, human capital, incomes, economic inequalities, social capital, behavioral factors, and the natural environment. However, the relative impact of these factors on life expectancy differed substantially for men and women, Florczak says. In the second part of the article, the author proposes a model breaking down the population by sex and age, with the use of a “top-down modeling strategy.” The parameters of the Gompertz mortality law and a logistic function were estimated for each year, with the entire population divided into coherent age groups. The resulting demographic model makes it possible to draw up forecasts and simulation scenarios taking into account links between the economic and demographic determinants of growth, Florczak says.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2009, 232, 5-6; 61-90
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
O eliminacji błędów w prognozach wykonywanych na podstawie modelu Leontiewa w przypadku agregacji niedoskonałej w sensie Hatanaki
On Eliminating Errors of Forecasts Obtained from the Leontief Model for the Case of Imperfect Hatanaki’s Aggregation
Autorzy:
Kolupa, Michał
Plebaniak, Joanna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1827249.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009-12-31
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
model Leontiewa
prognozy ekonometryczne
agregacja
Leontief model
econometric forecasts
aggregation
Źródło:
Przegląd Statystyczny; 2009, 56, 3-4; 81-88
0033-2372
Pojawia się w:
Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On inconsistency of Hellwigs variable choice method in regression models
Autorzy:
Bednarski, Tadeusz
Borowicz, Filip
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/729650.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Wydział Matematyki, Informatyki i Ekonometrii
Tematy:
model choice
econometric modeling
Opis:
It is shown that a popular variable choice method of Hellwig, which is recommended in the Polish econometric textbooks does not enjoy a very basic consistency property. It means in particular that the method may lead to rejection of significant variables in econometric modeling. A simulation study and a real data analysis case are given to support theoretical results.
Źródło:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics; 2009, 29, 1; 41-51
1509-9423
Pojawia się w:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Przyczyny i implikacje zmian w udziale zysków i płac w PKB
The Causes and Implications of Changes in the Share of Profits and Wages in GDP
Autorzy:
Wojtyna, Andrzej
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575759.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009-09-30
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
profits
wages
globalization
technological progress
econometric research
capital-labor substitution
Opis:
The paper examines the latest research into factors behind changes in the functional distribution of incomes, or the relationship between the share of wages and profits in GDP. The author describes the key determinants of theoretical and empirical research and explains why interest in these issues has increased in recent years in both Poland and elsewhere. The second part of the paper discusses the most controversial issues linked with the definition and measurement of the share of wages and profits in GDP, while part three focuses on general historic trends linked with the distribution of profits and wages. Part four discusses the results of the latest econometric research that takes into account the role of globalization and technological progress. Part five is dedicated to research dealing with capital-labor substitution, which is important from the perspective of theoretical debates in contemporary macroeconomics. The author concludes that future research into the distribution of profits and wages should cover countries with a medium and low level of development.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2009, 234, 9; 49-66
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Struktura własnościowa a efektywność technologiczna największych banków w Polsce
The Ownership Structure and Technological Efficiency of Poland’s Largest Banks
Autorzy:
Guzik, Bogusław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575756.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009-02-28
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)
SE-CCR
efficiency
banks
ownership structure
econometric efficiency model
Opis:
Using data on Poland’s 50 largest banks-ranked by Bank Miesięcznik Finansowy in June 2007-the author calculated indicators of efficiency for 23 Polish banks. These indicators were calculated for 2006 according to a key Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model known as the SE-CCR. On the basis of data on the banks’ shareholding structure by country of origin and type of ownership-as well as data on when the banks were established-the author checked if individual groups of banks differed from one another in the average level of efficiency. Guzik used the Kruskal-Wallis test to this end. He also developed a model to explain the relationship between efficiency in the sense of CCR super-efficiency and the ownership structure of banks and their age. Overall, the paper shows that privately held banks controlled by foreign shareholders and established after 2000 are far more efficient than banks owned by domestic shareholders and established before 2000, especially if they are controlled by the state.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2009, 229, 1-2; 49-68
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Territorial differences of climate change impact on Romanian crop production
Autorzy:
Szocs, E.
Biro, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/572418.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
climate change
Romania
crop production
crop yield
regional differentiation
territorial differentiation
agriculture
meteorological factor
regression analysis
statistical relationship
econometric model
crop structure
climatic factor
agricultural product
Opis:
Effects of the climate change appear in several fields of the economy and agriculture can be considered as one of the most affected among them. In a country, where almost 10% of the total GDP is produced by the agricultural sector and more than 30% of the total work force is employed in this field, these changes may have severe economic impacts. As in Romania almost 65% of the agricultural production is represented by vegetal production, we concentrate our investigations on this agricultural sector. Our aim is to present, basing on econometric modeling, how the climate changes will affect the Romanian crop production in the next 20 years, highlighting the territorial differences which appear between the Romanian NUTS2 development regions. This paper presents some of the first results of the FP6 research project “CLAVIER – Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe”, contract no. 037013 (2006-2009).
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego; 2009, 06(21)
2081-6960
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 146

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