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Tytuł:
Temperature effects on the seed germination of some perennial and annual species of Asteraceae family
Autorzy:
Zarghani, Hadi
Mijani, Sajad
Nasrabadi, Samieh Eskandari
Ghias-Abadi, Mohhamad
Khorramdel, Surur
Azimi, Reyhaneh
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2199738.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014-06-19
Wydawca:
Instytut Hodowli i Aklimatyzacji Roślin
Tematy:
cardinal temperatures
dark germination
life cycle
medicinal species
Opis:
Temperature is the most critical factor determining success or failure of plant establishment. Seed germination response of five medicinal species include three seed-propagated perennial species, Cichorium intybus, cynara scolymus and Echinacea purpurea and vegetative-reproduction perennial species, Achillea millefolium and annual species, Matricaria aurea were assessed at constant temperatures. The seeds were exposed to constant temperatures of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45°C under total darkness. Germination percentage of all the species were significantly affected by various temperatures (p ≤ 0.001). A. millefolium did not germinate at 5-10 and 35-45°C, but showed noticeable germination percentage (73.3-100%) at temperatures ranged from 15-30° C. The highest total germination percentage was observed within the range of 15-35 °C for other species. Also, we calculated cardinal temperatures (the minimum, optimum and maximum temperature) for seed germination of species. The highest value for minimum temperature was 10.07ºC in A. millefolium followed by C. scolymus and M. aurea (5ºC) while the lowest was for E. purpurea and C. intybus (2.68 and 2.90ºC respectively). The lowest value for optimum temperature was detected in A. millefolium (22.72ºC) and M. aurea (23.88°C) while the maximum values were observed in E. purpurea and C. intybus (30.40ºC and 29.90ºC respectively). Based on results of present study we concluded that species with both vegetative and seed-propagated reproduction forms like A. millefolium had smaller temperature range rather those with just one way of reproduction (seed production).
Źródło:
Plant Breeding and Seed Science; 2014, 69; 3-14
1429-3862
2083-599X
Pojawia się w:
Plant Breeding and Seed Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey
Autorzy:
Yaman, Barbaros
Ertuğrul, Mertol
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1841778.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
climate change
homogeneity
precipitation
temperature
trend analysis
Opis:
Studies associated with climate change and variability are of great importance at both the global and local scale in the global climate crisis. In this study, change-point detection and trend analysis were carried out on mean, maximum, minimum air temperatures and total precipitation based on monthly, seasonal and annual scale in Bartın province located in the western Black Sea Region of Turkey. For this aim, 4-different homogeneity tests (von Neumann test, Pettitt test, Buishand range test and standard normal homogeneity test) for changepoint detection, Modified Mann–Kendall test and Şen’s innovative trend test for trend analysis, and Sen’s slope test for the magnitude estimation of trends were used. According to the test results, the summer temperatures in particular show increasing trends at the 0.001 significance level. Mean maximum temperature in August, mean minimum temperature in June and August, and mean temperature in July and August are in increasing trend at the 0.001 significance level. Over a 51 year period (1965–2015) in Bartın province, the highest rate of change per decade in air temperatures is in August (0.55°C for Tmax, 0.46°C for Tmin and 0.43°C for Tmean) based on Sen’s slope. However, the study showed that apart from October precipitation, there is no significant trend in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in Bartın. Increasing trends in mentioned climate variables are also visually very clear and strong in Şen’s innovative trend method, and they comply with the statistical results. As a result, the study revealed some evidence that temperatures will increase in the future in Bartın and its environs.
Źródło:
Geology, Geophysics and Environment; 2020, 46, 3; 223-237
2299-8004
2353-0790
Pojawia się w:
Geology, Geophysics and Environment
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Air temperature variability on the silesian lowlands in the years 1957-2014
Autorzy:
Włodek, S.
Sikora, J.
Pawęska, K.
Biskupski, A.
Owsiak, Z.
Maga, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/101462.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Stowarzyszenie Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich PAN
Tematy:
average annual
average monthly air temperatures
number of days
Silesian Lowland
Opis:
Results of air temperature measurements in the 1957-2014 multi-annual period were analysed in the paper. The data originated from Jelcz-Laskowice locality situated in the south-western part of Poland, at the flat part of the Lower Silesia, on Silesian Lowlands. Average annual and monthly air temperatures and the number of days of thermal seasons duration were analysed. Trends of changes were set and extreme values of average monthly air temperatures were analysed. Mean annual air temperatures in the studied multi-annual period revealed a tendency to increase. Average monthly extreme values of the analysed factor revealed a similar direction of changes; however, more apparent changes occurred for the maximum values. Over the analysed period, average monthly air temperatures revealed a tendency to increase. The most serious changes occurred in July, slightly lesser in August, May and April. The number of days in the years 1957-2014 in the interval limited by the air temperature threshold values: 0°C, 5°C and 15°C was greatly diversified. Analysed results had a clear growing tendency for the summer, slightly lower for the spring, but evidently declining for the autumn.
Źródło:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich; 2017, IV/3; 1877-1886
1732-5587
Pojawia się w:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Annual runoff coefficient in the Cerhovický Stream catchment
Roczny współczynnik spływu w zlewni strumienia Cerhovickiego
Autorzy:
Vlckova, M.
Nechvatal, M.
Soukup, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/292962.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
poziom wód gruntowych
rok mokry
rok suchy
temperatura wody
użytkowanie ziemi
współczynnik spływu
runoff coefficient
dry year
wet year
land use
water temperature
groundwater level
Opis:
The runoff coefficient is one of the fundamental hydrological characteristics of a catchment. It indicates a share of the precipitation water that runs off from the catchment. The results of the runoff coefficient calculation based on measurements carried out continuously in the Cerhovický Stream catchment over a considerable period of time, i.e. from 1988 up to 2006 are presented. The precipitation and runoff data in the catchment were used. Mean value of the runoff coefficient and the runoff coefficients for the agricultural and forest parts of the catchment are presented. The total mean runoff coefficient for the Cerhovický Stream is 0.19 with the standard deviation of 0.06. Mean runoff coefficient for the forest part is 0.13 and for the agricultural part - 0.24. Differences between the years with a higher and a lower precipitation were followed as well. We also statistically evaluated possible hydrological changes caused by the construction of the highway and the market centre. For another possible explanation of quite high standard deviation of the mean annual runoff coefficient we followed the monthly runoff coefficient dependence on water temperature and of ground water table depth.
Współczynnik spływu jest jedną z podstawowych cech hydrologicznych zlewni. Określa on tę część wód opadowych, która odpływa ze zlewni. W pracy przedstawiono wyniki obliczeń współczynnika spływu na podstawie ciągłych i długotrwałych (1988-2006) pomiarów opadu i spływu, prowadzonych w zlewni strumienia Cerhovickiego. Podano średni współczynnik spływu dla zlewni i oddzielnie dla jej części rolniczej i zalesionej. Średni współczynnik dla zlewni wynosił 0,19 z odchyleniem standardowym 0,06. Średnie współczynniki spływu dla części zalesionej i użytkowanej rolniczo wynosiły odpowiednio 0,13 i 0,24. Analizowano także różnice między latami o większych i mniejszych opadach atmosferycznych. Statystycznie oceniono również możliwe zmiany hydrologiczne spowodowane budową autostrady i centrum handlowego. Aby wyjaśnić względnie wysokie odchylenie standardowe od średniego rocznego współczynnika spływu, zbadano zależność miesięcznych wartości współczynnika od temperatury wody i poziomu zwierciadła wód gruntowych.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2009, no. 13b; 41-56
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zmiany rocznej liczby dni z pokrywą śnieżną w okresie 1921/22-1986/87 w Poznaniu, w powiązaniu ze zmianami temperatury powietrza miesięcy zimowych
Changes of the annual number of days with snow cover in the period from 1921/22 to 1986/87 in Poznan in connection with changes of winter months temperature
Autorzy:
Szustakowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2095829.pdf
Data publikacji:
1991
Wydawca:
Poznańskie Towarzystwo Przyjaciół Nauk
Źródło:
Badania Fizjograficzne nad Polską Zachodnią. Seria A:Geografia Fizyczna; 1991, 42; 283-290
0067-2807
Pojawia się w:
Badania Fizjograficzne nad Polską Zachodnią. Seria A:Geografia Fizyczna
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wpływ zmian temperatury wody na Prądzie Norweskim na kształtowanie rocznej temperatury powietrza w atlantyckiej Arktyce i notowane tam ocieplenie w okresie ostatniego 20-lecia
The influence of changes in water temperature in the Norwegian Current on annual air temperature in the Atlantic part of the Arctic and its warming noted over the past 20-year period
Autorzy:
Styszyńska, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/260694.pdf
Data publikacji:
2004
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Klimatologów Polskich
Tematy:
temperatury powietrza
temperatury wody
Arktyka
water temperature
air temperature
Arctic
Opis:
Kruszewski, Marsz and Zblewski (2003) found out that winter temperature of water in the Norwegian Current indicates quite strong, occurring with a delay, correlations with the air temperature at Spitsbergen, Bjornoya, Hopen and Jan Mayen. Strong and statistically significant correlations between the mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the period January-March in grid 2°x2° [67°N, 10°E] and the monthly temperature of July, August and September with SST are marked the same year (3-5 month delay) and with the air temperature in November and December the following year (18-20 month delay). Waters of the Norwegian Current transport warm, of higher salinity Atlantic waters. Winter SST of the Atlantic Ocean characterizes the heat resources in the deeper layers of waters. SST in grid [67,10] in an indirect way characterizes heat resources carried with the Atlantic waters into the Norwegian Sea and farther to the Arctic together with the West Spitsbergen and Nordcap currents. The aim of this work is to describe the influence caused by changes in heat resources transported to the Arctic with the Norwegian Current on the annual temperature of air in the region of Hopen, Spitsbergen and Jan Mayen. The examined period covers the years of 1982?2002 and is marked by great warming in this area. The analysis of spatial distribution of correlation coefficients justifies Kruszewski and others (2003) hypothesis of mechanism causing the delayed influence of changes in water heat resources on the air temperature in this region The observed positive correlations between winter SST in [67,10] grid and air temperature in July, August and September result in the influence of changing water heat resources on atmospheric circulation noted in these months. Positive correlations in November and December in the following year result from the ?onflow? to the Arctic of warmer and of high salinity Atlantic waters. They have influence on the ice formation on the Greenland and Barents seas thus causing that influence of changing heat resources carried with waters on air temperature is much stronger. The analysis of regression made it possible to establish the correlation between annual air temperature at a given station (Ts) and winter water temperature (Tw) in [67,10] grid. Annual temperature in a year k is a function of two variables: Tw of the same year as the temperature Ts (Tw(k)) and Tw from the preceding year (Tw(k-1)): Ts(k) = A + b . Tw(k) + c . Tw(k-1) Table 3 contains the values of constant term and regression coefficients as well as statistical characteristics of formulas for the analysed stations. Both variables Tw from the year k and the year k-1 explain about 40% of the changeability in mean annual air temperature of the observed 20-year period at the analysed stations. This means that only one element, i.e. heat resource in the waters of the Norwegian Current, defined with the value Tw, determines more than 1/3 of the whole annual changeability in air temperature in the region located from Jan Mayen up to Hopen and from Tromso up to Ny Alesund. The station for which maximum explanation may be applied (47.7%) is Hopen, the station where the positive trend in annual temperature is the highest (+0.090°C/year). The values of regression coefficients b and c prove that the inertial factor connected with advection of the Atlantic waters has greater role in the changeability in mean annual temperature of air. The analysis of formula [2] indicates that great increases and decreases in annual temperature at the discussed stations will be observed in a k year if the values of Tw in two following years are significantly higher or lower than the mean ones. That is why the occurrence of positive trend in value of Tw should be followed by relatively systematic increase in annual air temperature at stations located at the described region. A positive trend in annual air temperature was noted at the analysed stations over the period 1982?2002. At Jan Mayen its value is +0.067 (ą0.028)°C/year (p<0.026). When taking the estimated values of regression coefficients in the multiple regression connecting the annual temperature at Jan Mayen with the value of Tw (Table 1) and the same value of trend T equal to +0.023 then the value of annual trend in air temperature at Jan Mayen influenced by trend Tw equals 0.0598°C/year. The obtained result indicates that the whole or almost whole warming observed at Jan Mayen in the years 1983-2002 may be explained by direct and indirect influence of the increase in the value of Tw over that period.
Źródło:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej; 2004, 14; 69-78
1234-0715
Pojawia się w:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wpływ zmian temperatury wody powierzchniowej mórz Barentsa, Norweskiego i Grenlandzkiego na trend rocznej temperatury powietrza na Spitsbergenie
Influence of changes in sea surface temperature in the Barents, Norwegian and Greenland seas on the annual air temperature trend at Spitsbergen
Autorzy:
Styszyńska, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/261025.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Klimatologów Polskich
Tematy:
temperatura powietrza
temperatura powierzchni morza
Spitsbergen
air temperature
sea surface temperature
Opis:
Praca omawia wpływ zmian temperatury wód powierzchniowych (SST - sea surface temperature) mórz Barentsa, Norweskiego i Grenlandzkiego zachodzących w okresie zimowego wychładzania (styczeń-kwiecień) na roczne i sezonowe wartości temperatury powietrza na Spitsbergenie w okresie 1912-2010. Stwierdzono, że zimowa SST rozległej powierzchni mórz otaczających Spitsbergen jest silnie skorelowana z roczną temperaturą powietrza na Spitsbergenie przez kolejne trzy lata (k, k+1, k+2). Powierzchnia akwenów, na których występują opóźnione korelacje z temperaturą powietrza na Spitsbergenie stopniowo zmniejsza się, a siła związków słabnie. Obszary, na których w roku k+2 korelacje utrzymują najwyższą (p < 0.001) istotność odtwarzają szlaki przenosu prądowego. Akwen, na którym zmienność SST z roku k najsilniej koreluje z roczną i zimową temperaturą powietrza na Spitsbergenie w kolejnych trzech latach (k, k+1, k+2) nie zmienia swojego położenia - jest to obszar leżący na pograniczu N części Morza Norweskiego i W części Morza Barentsa - między Bjornoyą a Nordkapem. Długookresowe zmiany temperatury powierzchni mórz wokółspitsbergeńskich regulują długookresową zmienność temperatury powietrza na Spitsbergenie, a występujący w przebiegu rocznej temperatury powietrza trend ma swoją genezę w zmianach zasobów ciepła w wodach tych mórz.
This work discusses the influence of changes in SST (sea surface temperature) of the Barents, Norwegian and Greenland seas occurring during winter cooling (January-April) on annual and seasonal air temperatures at Spitsbergen during 1912-2010. It was found that the winter SST of vast seas surrounding the region of Spitsbergen is strongly correlated with annual and winter air temperature at Spitsbergen during the next three years (k, k+1, k+2). The sea areas, where the delayed correlations with air temperature at Spitsbergen are observed, gradually decrease, and the strength of the correlation decreases. The routes of moving current represent the areas where correlations maintain the highest significance (p <0.001) in the year k+2. The sea area, where variability of SST from year k is most strongly correlated with the annual and winter air temperature at Spitsbergen in the next three years (k, k+1, k+2) does not change its position - this is the area lying on the border of the north part of the Norwegian Sea and the west part of the Barents Sea - between Bjornoya and Nordkap. Long-term sea surface temperature changes of vast seas surrounding the region of Spitsbergen regulate the long-term variability of the air temperature on Spitsbergen, and appearing in the course of the annual air temperature trend has his own genesis in changes of resources of the warmth in waters of these seas.
Źródło:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej; 2011, 21; 115-131
1234-0715
Pojawia się w:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature in the Baltic Sea based on 32-years (1982–2013) of satellite data
Autorzy:
Stramska, M.
Bialogrodzka, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48273.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
satellite data
sea surface temperature
Baltic Sea
annual cycle
climate change
spatial variability
temporal variability
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2015, 57, 3
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Impact of build-up areas and housing estate vegetation on diversity of the local climate in Warsaw
Autorzy:
Stopa-Boryczka, Maria
Boryczka, Jerzy
Wawer, Jolanta
Miłaszewska, Małgorzata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2034158.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010-06-01
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Geografii i Studiów Regionalnych
Tematy:
Intensity of heat island
diurnal changes
annual changes
air temperature
latitudinal profiles
town
Opis:
The more important research results on the impact of building development and vegetation on the local climate, conducted in Warsaw in the years 1959-2009 by the Department of Climatology, are presented. Majority of the issues associated with determining the deformation of air temperature limits (urban heat islands), humidity and wind vector areas, because of buildings in housing estates, located in various parts of the city, were resolved in master's thesis. Areas with high building density are characterized by slow cooling and warming pace, especially during the summer months. Spatial changes in the urban heat islands in the east-west direction well describe the latitudinal profiles (W-E) of air temperature differences (∆T ≥ 0) between the city and its urban fringe. The urban heat island ∆T does not appears till 5PM, initially in the Central City District. Spatial diversity of effective temperature and catathermal cooling allowed to mark off in housing estates ( „Stawki”, „Służew nad Dolinką”, „Sady Żoliborskie”) places with perceptible conditions, e.g. heat, warmth, comfort, cold.
Źródło:
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development; 2010, 14; 121-134
0867-6046
2084-6118
Pojawia się w:
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Characteristics and inter-annual changes in temperature, salinity and density distribution in the Gulf of Riga
Autorzy:
Skudra, M.
Lips, U.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48540.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
Riga Gulf
interannual variability
long-term change
temperature
salinity
density
Baltic Sea
vertical stratification
internal Rossby radius
Opis:
Available CTD profiles from the Gulf of Riga (May—August, 1993—2012) were analyzed to study inter-annual and long-term changes in temperature, salinity and density in relation to river runoff and atmospheric forcing (e.g. Baltic Sea Index). To describe temporal changes in vertical stratification, the upper mixed layer (UML) and deep layer (DL) parameters were estimated. On average the UML depth increases from 8.7 m in May to 9.0, 11.5 and 13.7 m in June, July and August, respectively, and the UML temperature increases from 8.08C to 12.5, 18.7 and 18.68C (May, June, July and August) while the UML salinity increases from 4.90 g kg1 to 5.14, 5.28 and 5.38 g kg1, respectively. High correlation (r = 0.82) was found between the inter-annual changes in river runoff (spring) and mean salinity in the UML in August as well as between DL mean salinity (r = 0.88) and density (r = 0.84) in the Irbe Strait and DL mean salinity and density in the Gulf of Riga. Inter-annual changes in the UML depth as well as in DL salinity and density had a significant correlation with the changes in Baltic Sea Index. The strongest stratification (August) can be observed in the years with the highest UML temperature and the highest river run-off in spring. We suggest that the predicted increase in water temperature and changes in river run-off due to the climate change would result in faster development of the seasonal thermocline in spring and stronger vertical stratification in summer.
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2017, 59, 1
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Spatial and seasonal variability of temperature and salinity in Bransfield Strait and Admiralty Bay, Antarctica
Autorzy:
Rakusa-Suszczewski, Stanisław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2052591.pdf
Data publikacji:
1996
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
Antarctica
T/S stratification
annual cycles
Źródło:
Polish Polar Research; 1996, 17, 1-2; 29-42
0138-0338
2081-8262
Pojawia się w:
Polish Polar Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Stochastic ARIMA model for annual rainfall and maximum temperature forecasting over Tordzie watershed in Ghana
Stochastyczny model ARIMA do prognozowania rocznego opadu i maksymalnej temperatury w zlewni Tordzie w Ghanie
Autorzy:
Nyatuame, M.
Agodzo, S. K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/292306.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
ARIMA
forecasting
rainfall model
temperature
Tordzie watershed
modele opadu
prognozowanie
temperatura
zlewnia Tordzie
Opis:
The forecast of rainfall and temperature is a difficult task due to their variability in time and space and also the inability to access all the parameters influencing rainfall of a region or locality. Their forecast is of relevance to agriculture and watershed management, which significantly contribute to the economy. Rainfall prediction requires mathematical modelling and simulation because of its extremely irregular and complex nature. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to analyse annual rainfall and maximum temperature over Tordzie watershed and the forecast. Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) were used to identify the models by aid of visual inspection. Stationarity tests were conducted using the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Mann–Kendall (MK) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests respectively. The chosen models were evaluated and validated using the Akaike information criterion corrected (AICC) and also Schwartz Bayesian criteria (SBC). The diagnostic analysis of the models comprised of the independence, normality, homoscedascity, P–P and Q–Q plots of the residuals respectively. The best ARIMA model for rainfall for Kpetoe and Tordzinu were (3, 0, 3) and (3, 1, 3) with AICC values of 190.07 and 178.23. That of maximum temperature for Kpetoe and Tordzinu were (3, 1, 3) and (3, 1, 3) and the corresponding AICC values of 23.81 and 36.10. The models efficiency was checked using sum of square error (SSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The results of the various analysis indicated that the models were adequate and can aid future water planning projections.
Prognozowanie opadu i temperatury jest trudnym zadaniem z powodu zmienności tych parametrów w czasie i przestrzeni, a także nieznajomości wszystkich czynników wpływających na opady w regionie czy w danej miejscowości. Prognozowanie opadów jest ważne dla rolnictwa i gospodarki zlewniowej, mających znaczący wkład w gospodarkę regionu. Przewidywanie opadu wymaga modelowania matematycznego i symulacji z powodu jego skrajnie nieregularnego i złożonego charakteru. Do analizy i prognozowania rocznych opadów i maksymalnej temperatury w zlewni Tordzie wykorzystano autoregresyjny zintegrowany model średniej ruchomej (ARIMA). Do zidentyfikowania modeli metodą oglądu wizualnego użyto funkcji autokorelacji (ACF) i cząstkowej autokorelacji (PACF). Testy stacjonarności przeprowadzono za pomocą testów Dickeya–Fullera (ADF), Manna–Kendalla (MK) i Kwiatkowskiego–Phillipsa–Schmidta–Shina (KPSS). Wybrane modele poddano ocenie i walidacji z użyciem skorygowanego kryterium Akaike (AICC) i Bayesowskiego kryterium Schwartza (SBC). Diagnostyczna analiza modeli obejmowała niezależność, normalność, homoscedastyczność, wykresy P–P i Q–Q dla reszt. Najlepsze modele ARIMA dla opadu w Kpetoe i Tordzinu miały postać (3, 0, 3) i (3, 1, 3), gdy wartości AICC równe odpowiednio 190,07 i 178,23. Modele dla maksymalnej temperatury w Kpetoe i Tordzinu miały postać (3, 1, 3) i (3, 1, 3), a ich odpowiednie wartości AICC wynosiły 23,81 i 36,10. Wydajność modelu sprawdzano, wykorzystując sumę błędu kwadratowego (SSE), średni błąd kwadratowy (MSE), średni bezwzględny błąd procentowy (MAPE) i pierwiastek ze średniego błędu kwadratowego (RMSE). Wyniki różnych analiz wykazały, że modele są odpowiednie i mogą stanowić pomoc w przyszłej gospodarce wodnej.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2018, 37; 127-140
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Validation and statistical analysis of the group for high resolution sea surface temperature data in the Arabian Gulf
Autorzy:
Nesterov, O.
Temimi, M.
Fonseca, R.
Nelli, N.R.
Addad, Y.
Bosc, E.
Abida, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2078874.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
validation
statistical analysis
sea surface temperature
annual variability
seasonal variability
Arabian Gulf
Oman Sea
Opis:
The combined effect of climate change and steadily increasing seawater demand for industrial and domestic purposes in the Arabian Gulf region has a significant impact on the ecosystem in this region. Additionally, this effect may reduce the efficiency and increase the operating costs of industrial facilities that utilize seawater for cooling and other purposes. In this context, it is important to know various statistical characteristics of the sea surface temperature (SST) and their trends, in addition to the mean climatological characteristics. The analysis conducted in this study utilized a 17-year Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 dataset of 0.01 × 0.01° spatial resolution. First, the dataset was compared against a 2-year seawater temperature measurements at the ten offshore buoys in the relatively shallow coastal waters of the United Arab Emirates between Ras Ghumais and Dubai, which showed a reasonably good agreement between the two datasets, with the estimated root mean square deviations ranging from 0.5 to 0.9°C. Subsequently, several statistical SST characteristics were calculated. The trend analysis showed not only positive tendencies in the mean SSTs of up to 0.08°C/year in the northern Gulf, but also the trends in the annual percentile exceedances, particularly the 95th percentiles (near-maximum SSTs), which increased by approximately 0.07°C/year in the western United Arab Emirates and eastern Qatar waters. On the contrary, the 5th percentiles (near-minimum SSTs) decreased by up to 0.1°C/year, especially in the waters around Bahrain, Qatar, and the western United Arab Emirates. These results indicate that extreme hot and cold SST events in the Gulf are becoming more frequent and more extreme than before.
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2021, 63, 4; 497-515
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Rola cyrkulacji atmosferycznej i zmian temperatury powierzchni morza w kształtowaniu zmienności temperatury powietrza na stacjach zachodniego wybrzeża Półwyspu Antarktycznego
Role of the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature changes in the formation of air temperature variability at the stations western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula
Autorzy:
Marsz, A. A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/260804.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Klimatologów Polskich
Tematy:
Półwysep Antarktyczny
roczna temperatura powietrza
ochłodzenie
temperatura powierzchni morza
wiatr geostroficzny
Antarctic Peninsula
annual air temperature
cooling
sea surface temperature
geostrophic wind
Opis:
Praca omawia przyczyny spadku temperatury powietrza obserwowanego po roku 2000 na stacjach północnego krańca Półwyspu Antarktycznego oraz osłabienia tempa wzrostu temperatury na stacjach środkowej i południowej części Półwyspu. Analiza przyczyn zachodzących zmian temperatury powietrza wskazuje, że czynnikiem odpowiedzialnym za spadki temperatury jest silny spadek temperatury powierzchni morza (dalej SST – sea surface temperature) na wodach Oceanu Południowego rozpościerających się na NW od Półwyspu Antarktycznego. Zarówno zmiany SST, jak i zmienność południkowych, ujemnych (z sektora północnego) składowych wiatru geostroficznego, które objaśniają łącznie około 60% wariancji rocznej temperatury powietrza na stacjach omawianego obszaru, zachodzą pod wpływem czynników naturalnych.
The paper presents the results of research into the role of changes in SST and atmospheric circulation variability in the formation of annual air temperature at the station the South Shetland Islands and the western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Four stations have been chosen for the analysis: Bellingshausen, Esperanza, Faraday / Vernadsky and Rothera. In this region (Fig. 2) these stations have the longest and most complete series of temperature measurements. After an analysis, annual average values of SST anomalies of the sea area extending from the N and NW of the area in question (variable SSTA20; see Fig. 2) and the average annual values of zonal and meridional components of geostrophic wind at the level of 1000 hPa (four points marked in Fig. 2) have been chosen as factors influencing the temperature variations at these stations. Regression analysis showed that SST variability and variability of meridional components of geostrophic wind of the points 60°S, 60°W and 65°S, 70°W have a strong, statistically significant influence on the variability of annual air temperature at the analyzed stations . Variability of zonal components of geostrophic wind does not play a significant role in shaping the temperature variation. The variability of meridional component of geostrophic wind and SST anomalies explain a total of about 60% of the observed variance of annual air temperature at the studied stations throughout the observation period (Table 2). The cause of the collapse of the strong positive trend of temperature after 2000, which occurred at these stations, is the occurrence of a sharp fall in SST in the analyzed sea area (Fig. 5). As a result, the South Shetland Islands and northern edge of the Antarctic Peninsula after 2000 began to cool, and the positive trend at stations in central and southern part of the Antarctic Peninsula became much weaker (Fig. 1). The analysis shows that the variation of meridional components of geostrophic wind and SST variability controlling temperature changes at the stations of west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula are a sign of natural processes. They are directly (SST anomalies) or indirectly (meridional components of geostrophic wind) the result of oceanic processes. This observed variability in temperature in the north of the region and the western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, including a strong positive trend observed in the years 1951-2000 and its subsequent collapse in the years 2000-2012, must be regarded as a manifestation of natural variability.
Źródło:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej; 2013, 23; 21-42
1234-0715
Pojawia się w:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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