The combined effect of climate change and steadily increasing seawater demand
for industrial and domestic purposes in the Arabian Gulf region has a significant impact on the
ecosystem in this region. Additionally, this effect may reduce the efficiency and increase the
operating costs of industrial facilities that utilize seawater for cooling and other purposes. In
this context, it is important to know various statistical characteristics of the sea surface temperature (SST) and their trends, in addition to the mean climatological characteristics. The
analysis conducted in this study utilized a 17-year Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 dataset of 0.01 × 0.01° spatial resolution. First, the dataset was compared
against a 2-year seawater temperature measurements at the ten offshore buoys in the relatively shallow coastal waters of the United Arab Emirates between Ras Ghumais and Dubai,
which showed a reasonably good agreement between the two datasets, with the estimated
root mean square deviations ranging from 0.5 to 0.9°C. Subsequently, several statistical SST
characteristics were calculated. The trend analysis showed not only positive tendencies in the
mean SSTs of up to 0.08°C/year in the northern Gulf, but also the trends in the annual percentile exceedances, particularly the 95th percentiles (near-maximum SSTs), which increased by approximately 0.07°C/year in the western United Arab Emirates and eastern Qatar waters.
On the contrary, the 5th percentiles (near-minimum SSTs) decreased by up to 0.1°C/year, especially in the waters around Bahrain, Qatar, and the western United Arab Emirates. These
results indicate that extreme hot and cold SST events in the Gulf are becoming more frequent
and more extreme than before.
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