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Wyszukujesz frazę "Monte Carlo simulation approach" wg kryterium: Wszystkie pola


Tytuł:
Reliability of complex system under operation process influence : Monte Carlo simulation Approach
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069246.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
multistate system
operation process
complex system
reliability
Monte Carlo simulation method
Opis:
The paper presents Monte Carlo simulation method applied to the reliability evaluation of a multistate system subjected to a variable multistate operation process. The system operation process model is linked with the system reliability model and proposed to get a general reliability model of the complex system operating at varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics. The Monte Carlo simulation algorithm based on the integrated general model of a complex multistate system reliability, linking its reliability model and its operation process model and considering variable at different operation states its reliability structure and its components reliability parameters is applied to the reliability evaluation of port grain transportation system. Next the results of this simulation method application are illustrated and compared with the results obtained by the analytical method.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2015, 6, 1; 145--154
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo simulation approach to determination of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas
Autorzy:
Dąbrowska, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/116316.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
oil spills domains
Monte Carlo simulation
determination of oil spill
port area
sea water areas
oil spill
Semi-Markov model
hydro-meteorological conditions
Opis:
Monte Carlo simulation method of oil spill domains determination based on the probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed and its parameters are defined. The general stochastic model of oil spill domain movement for various hydro-meteorological conditions is described. Monte Carlo simulation procedure is created and applied to generating the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions and the prediction of the oil spill domain movement impacted by these changes conditions.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2020, 14, 1; 59-64
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo simulation approach to calculate Value at Risk: application to WIG20 and mWIG40
Autorzy:
Pasieczna, Aleksandra Helena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/947638.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
Monte Carlo
Value at Risk
WIG20
mWIG40
Kupiec
simulations
Opis:
This paper reports our estimates of the Value at Risk using Monte Carlo simulations for which we developed a computer program. Our approach involves obtaining Monte Carlo parameters by fitting real historical data of different periods to probability distributions. We applied the algorithm to the WIG20 and mWIG40 stock indices, and performed simulations for the Value at Risk at 95% and 99% confidence intervals over six estimation periods ranging from 1 trading day to 250 trading days. This approach was evaluated using the percentage failures and the Kupiec Proportion of Failures test. Our results indicate that this method is highly influenced by the choice of past historical and estimation period lengths considered. Overall, we observed that the Monte Carlo computational scheme is a reliable method for quantifying VaR when parametrized well.
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2019, 24, 2; 61-75
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo simulation application to reliability assessment of an exemplary system operating at variable conditions
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069213.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
system reliability
system operation process
Monte Carlo simulation approach
Opis:
A semi-Markov process is applied to construct the multistate model of the system operation process and its main characteristics are determined. Analytical linking of the system operation process model with the system multistate reliability model is proposed to get a general reliability model of the complex system operating at varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics. The Monte Carlo simulation algorithm based on the integrated general model of a complex multistate system reliability, linking its reliability model and its operation process model and considering variable at different operation states its reliability structure and its components reliability parameters is applied to the reliability evaluation of an exemplary system. Next the results of this simulation method application are illustrated and compared with the results obtained by the analytical method.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2015, 6, 1; 137--144
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Preliminary Monte Carlo approach to complex technical system reliability analysis
Autorzy:
Kuligowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069438.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
reliability
operation process
complex system
Monte Carlo simulation
piping oil transportation system
Opis:
The paper explores the mathematical and computer modeling of complex technical systems related to their operation processes. The complex technical system with the reliability structure and components’ reliability parameters changing at the various operation states is defined. The selected system operation process parameters and the hypothetical distribution functions of the conditional sojourn times at the operation states are defined and identified. The reliability functions of the multistate system and components are introduced and their parameters are identified. The Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to the complex system reliability evaluation. Moreover, the proposed theoretical and simulation tools are supported with the practical application to the multi-state port oil piping transportation system reliability analysis.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 1; 59--72
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo approach to identification of maritime ferry operation process
Autorzy:
Otremba, Z.
Soszyńska, J.
Targowski, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069652.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
operation process
semi-Markov process
complex systems
Monte Carlo simulation
Opis:
The paper is concerned with the identification of operation processes of complex technical systems. The convenient tools suggested for analyzing these complex technical systems operation processes are semi-markov modeling and Monte Carlo simulation. The paper describes the proposed approach as well as the possibility of its practical application to identification of the operation process of a maritime ferry.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 187--192
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Simulation of computed tomography (CT) images using a Monte Carlo approach
Autorzy:
Wysocka-Rabin, A. M.
Qamhiyeh, S.
Jäkel, O.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/147601.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Instytut Chemii i Techniki Jądrowej
Tematy:
X-ray tomography
Monte Carlo (MC) method
treatment planning
hadrontherapy
Opis:
Heavy ion treatment planning uses an empirical scanner-dependent calibration relation between computed tomography (CT) numbers and ion range. Any deviation in the values of CT numbers will cause a drift in the calibration curve of the CT scanner, which can reduce the accuracy of treatment beam delivery. To reduce uncertainty in the empirical estimation of CT numbers, we developed a simulation that takes into consideration the geometry, composition, and physical process that underlie their measurement. This approach uses Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, followed by a simple filtered back-projection reconstruction. The MC code used is BEAMnrc/EGSnrc. With the manufacturer’s permission, we simulated the components (X-ray tube, associated filters and beam shapers) of a Siemens Emotion CT. We then generated an initial beam shape and spectra, and performed further simulations using the phantom with substitutes. We analyzed the resulting phase space file to calculate projections, taking into account the energy response of the CT detectors. Then, we applied a simple reconstruction algorithm to the calculated projections in order to receive the CT image.
Źródło:
Nukleonika; 2011, 56, 4; 299-304
0029-5922
1508-5791
Pojawia się w:
Nukleonika
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Nowe podejście do harmonogramowania czynności obsługowych systemów elektroenergetycznych wykorzystujące algorytm genetyczny oraz symulację Monte-Carlo
A new approach for maintenance scheduling of power systems, using a genetic algorithm and Monte-Carlo simulation
Autorzy:
Manbachi, M.
Mahdloo, F.
Haghifam, M. R.
Ataei, A.
Yoo, Ch. K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/300948.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
algorytm genetyczny
roczny rynek serwisowy
harmonogramowanie czynności obsługowych
symulacja Monte Carlo
niezawodność
genetic algorithm
annual maintenance market
maintenance scheduling
Monte Carlo simulation
reliability
Opis:
Celem pracy jest przedstawienie nowego, całościowego rozwiązania w zakresie harmonogramowania czynności obsługowych jednostek wytwórczych w warunkach deregulacji, przy założeniu rocznego niezależnego rynku. Rozwiązanie otrzymano poprzez wykorzystanie algorytmu genetycznego (GA) oraz symulacji Monte-Carlo (MCS). W warunkach deregulacji, każde przedsiębiorstwo wytwórcze (Generation Company, GENCO) dąży do optymalizacji zysków, podczas gdy niezależny operator systemowy (Independent System Operator, ISO) troszczy się o niezawodność. Na ogół, zderzenie tych dwóch punktów widzenia stwarza wiele problemów. Dlatego też proponujemy metodę harmonogramowania czynności obsługowych opartą na GA. Zgodnie z tą metodą, przedsiębiorstwa GENCO ustalają swoje strategie uczestnictwa w rocznym rynku usług serwisowych (Annual Maintenance Market, AMM) biorąc pod uwagę niepewności związane z obciążeniem, umowy paliwowe oraz zachowania innych przedsiębiorstw. Z drugiej strony, ISO zarządza AMM w oparciu o niezawodność i daje przedsiębiorstwom premie lub nakłada na nie kary bazując na własnej polityce poprzez MCS. Trafność i stosowalność zaproponowanej metody harmonogramowania czynności obsługowych jednostek wytwórczych oceniono analizując system testowy wyposażony w magistralę IEEE-118.
The aim of this study is to present a new comprehensive solution for maintenance scheduling of power generating units in deregulated environments by applying an annual independent market. The solution was obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and a Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS). In a deregulated environment, each Generation Company (GENCO) desires to optimize its payoffs, whereas an Independent System Operator (ISO) has its reliability solicitudes. In general, the two points of view create many problems. Therefore, we propose a method based on a GA for maintenance scheduling. In this method, GENCOs set their strategies to participate in an Annual Maintenance Market (AMM) by considering load uncertainties, fuel contracts and the behaviors of other companies. On the other hand, the ISO manages the AMM based on reliability and offers incentives/ penalties for companies relying on its policy through MCS. To evaluate the accuracy and applicability of our solution for maintenance scheduling of power generation units, an IEEE-118 bus test system was studied.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2010, 4; 82-90
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of system operation process influence on its reliability
Autorzy:
Kuligowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069392.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
system reliability
system operation process
analytical approach
Monte Carlo simulation
Opis:
The paper presents analytical and Monte Carlo simulation methods applied to the reliability evaluation of a system operating in two different operation states. A semi-Markov process is applied to construct the system operation model and its main characteristics are determined. Analytical linking of this operation model with the system reliability model is proposed to get a general reliability model of the system operating at two varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics. The application of Monte Carlo simulation based on this general model to the reliability evaluation of this system is proposed as well. The exemplary results obtained from those two considered methods are illustrated.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2014, 5, 1; 125--135
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A fuzzy approach to option pricing in a Levy process setting
Autorzy:
Nowak, P.
Romaniuk, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/330572.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Oficyna Wydawnicza
Tematy:
option pricing
Lévy process
minimal entropy
martingale measure
fuzzy sets
Monte Carlo simulation
wycena opcji
entropia minimalna
zbiór rozmyty
symulacja Monte Carlo
Opis:
In this paper the problem of European option valuation in a Levy process setting is analysed. In our model the underlying asset follows a geometric Levy process. The jump part of the log-price process, which is a linear combination of Poisson processes, describes upward and downward jumps in price. The proposed pricing method is based on stochastic analysis and the theory of fuzzy sets.We assume that some parameters of the financial instrument cannot be precisely described and therefore they are introduced to the model as fuzzy numbers. Application of fuzzy arithmetic enables us to consider various sources of uncertainty, not only the stochastic one. To obtain the European call option pricing formula we use the minimal entropy martingale measure and Levy characteristics.
Źródło:
International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science; 2013, 23, 3; 613-622
1641-876X
2083-8492
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł

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