Preliminary Monte Carlo approach to complex technical system reliability analysis

The paper explores the mathematical and computer modeling of complex technical systems related to their operation processes. The complex technical system with the reliability structure and components’ reliability parameters changing at the various operation states is defined. The selected system operation process parameters and the hypothetical distribution functions of the conditional sojourn times at the operation states are defined and identified. The reliability functions of the multistate system and components are introduced and their parameters are identified. The Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to the complex system reliability evaluation. Moreover, the proposed theoretical and simulation tools are supported with the practical application to the multi-state port oil piping transportation system reliability analysis.