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    Wyświetlanie 1-9 z 9
    Tytuł:
    The impact of phrasing of selected questions on the results of the business tendency surveys conducted by the Central Statistical Office of Poland
    Autorzy:
    Gaca, Olga
    Sękowska, Hanna
    Święcka, Magdalena
    Walkowska, Katarzyna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500168.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    business tendency surveys
    wording of survey questions
    Opis:
    Precise wording of qualitative questions poses substantial problem because frequently even small lack of accuracy or inappropriate word used in a question may bias surveys’ results. We analyze an impact of the wording on results of the qualitative business tendency surveys conducted by CSO of Poland. The relationship between the way survey questions are formulated and obtained replies is pointed out, e.g. the influence of adding explanatory notes and taking into account a kind of activity respondents perform.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty; 45-66
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Expectations’ Formation in Business Survey Data
    Autorzy:
    Białowolski, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500164.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013-09-01
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    business tendency surveys
    confirmatory factor analysis
    structural equation modeling
    Opis:
    In this paper we conduct a three step analysis of business tendency survey data in order to establish (1) common factors driving responses to groups of questions in the business tendency survey conducted among firms in the manufacturing industry in Poland, (2) factors responsible for respondents’ answers regarding assessments (present) and expectations (future), and (3) interrelations between current assessments and expectations. We start by performing a check of the factor structure with multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) models in order to establish common factors responsible for sets of answers in the area of assessments and expectations, respectively. Then, we proceed with structural equation modeling (SEM) framework in order to define period specific relations between the factors. With the final structural model we show that most answers in the area of current assessments and expectations of companies are in line with the stylised facts. We also demonstrate that the companies’ response pattern did not change during the financial crisis.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2013, 93: Expectations and Forecasting; 5-28
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Application of selected ideas from statistical overlapping samples theory to tendency surveys: Designed panel vs resulting overlapping samples
    Autorzy:
    Kowalczyk, Barbara
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500570.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    overlapping samples
    repeated surveys
    business tendency surveys
    balance statistics
    Opis:
    Most tendency surveys are organized to be based on a fixed sample of units across time. This fixed panel constitutes a designed sample. But in practice the resulting sample always differs from the designed one, sometimes quite considerably. In tendency surveys, like in all real surveys, some sampled units refuse to participate, some agree to cooperate but forgo several periods later, some respond irregularly. Consequently, the resulting samples across time never constitute a perfect panel, they form an overlapping sample pattern. In the paper we propose a formula for adjusted balance statistics that takes into account distortion of a sample. The main idea of adjusted balance statistics is analogous to estimators known from statistical overlapping samples theory. Theoretical part of the paper is extended by empirical analysis of monthly business tendency survey data. In particular, the response pattern is studied and comparison of original and adjusted balance statistics is conducted.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 96: Analyzing and forecasting economic fluctuations; 127-163
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Pilot study of Industry 4.0 and digital technology prevalence in Russian manufacturing companies
    Autorzy:
    Lola, Inna S.
    Bakeev, Murat
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407175.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    industry 4.0
    digitalization
    digital technologies
    business tendency observations
    manufacturing
    Opis:
    The spread of digital technologies dramatically changes production processes. The fourth industrial revolution opens up new opportunities for the introduction of technologies, having a significant impact on the production cycle, starting with highly automated production lines and ending with the large-scale implementation of technological solutions designed to improve productivity, optimize costs, quality and reliability. Defining digital transformations, primarily in the manufacturing industry, as a strategic imperative for the entire economy based on opinions and intentions of entrepreneurs (short and medium-term), key aspects of the digitalization process in Russian medium, high-tech and low-tech manufacturing industries are revealed. A set of tendencies in the development of digital technologies by their main types is presented, the level of industry participation in digital transformation is shown, as well as many other important digital transformation processes in enterprises that are not measured by quantitative statistics.
    Źródło:
    Management and Production Engineering Review; 2020, 11, 3; 26-37
    2080-8208
    2082-1344
    Pojawia się w:
    Management and Production Engineering Review
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The HSE ESI and the business cycle in the Russian economy
    Autorzy:
    Kitrar, Ludmila
    Lipkind, Tamara
    Lola, Inna
    Ostapkovich, Georgy
    Chusovlyanov, Dmitry
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500598.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    business cycle
    business tendency surveys
    turning points
    economic tracer
    economic sentiment indicator
    Opis:
    As the Russian economy is presently characterized by high uncertainty of doing business and a growing gap between opinions and actions of firms and decision makers, the importance of qualitative business surveys as a source of information is significantly rising. The paper investigates the ability of Russian business tendency surveys to identify business cycle turning points. For this purpose we have constructed an algorithm to build economic indicators which cover all information contained in the sectoral business surveys data. Identification of the turning points of these indicators allows us to track the stylized ‘averaged’ chronology of the business cycle. In addition, we have evaluated ex post the turning points in the GDP growth on the basis of the extracted cyclical component of the composite Economic Sentiment Indicator.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty; 45-66
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Unobserved Component Model with Observed Cycle Use of BTS Data for Short-Term Forecasting of Industrial Production
    Autorzy:
    Dudek, Sławomir
    Pachucki, Dawid
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500318.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2011
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    industrial production
    business tendency survey
    short-term forecasting
    unobserved component model
    Opis:
    In the paper we are checking the explanatory power of business tendency survey data (BTS) in short-term forecasts of industrial production within the framework of the unobserved component model (UCM). It is assumed that the "unobserved cyclical component" is common for reference quantitative variable and qualitative variable. In that sense the cyclical fluctuation of industrial production can be approximated by the fluctuations of BTS indicators. We call such a specification of structural time series model the “Unobserved component model with observed cycle" (UCM-OC). To estimate the system we are using the Kalman filter technique. Then we compare the model recursive one-period ahead forecasts to the historical path of the reference series to check its out-of-sample data fit. The forecasting properties are also evaluated against alternative models, i.e. "pure" UCM and ARIMA model. The analysis was performed for Poland and selected European Union countries.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2011, 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference; 83-100
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The Viterbi Path of hidden Markov models in an analysis of business tendency surveys
    Autorzy:
    Bernardelli, Michał
    Dędys, Monika
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500693.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    hidden Markov model
    Viterbi algorithm
    business tendency surveys
    business cycle turning point detection
    Opis:
    The aim of the paper is to show that turning points detection can be treated as a problem of pattern recognition. In the paper there are presented the results of applying normal hidden Markov models to a number of survey balances. Beyond a classical two-scale assessment of business activity a slightly more fuzzy classification of states is considered. To determine periods of unclear or difficult to evaluate situation unobservable Markov chains with three and four states are introduced. The outputs of the Viterbi algorithm, i.e. the most likely paths of unobservable states of Markov chains, are a basis of the proposed classification. The comparison of these paths with the business cycle turning points dated by OECD is described. The results obtained for three- and four-state Markov chains are close to those established in the references time series and seem to improve the speed with which, especially downshifts, are signaled. Furthermore, these results are more favorable than outcomes provided by conventional two-state models. The method proposed in this paper seems to be a very effective tool to analyze results of business tendency surveys, in particular, when multistate Markov chains are considered. Moreover, proposed decompositions allow an easy comparison of two time series as far as turning point are concerned. In the paper survey balances are compared with ‘hard’ economic data such as sold manufacturing production. The results confirm the accuracy of assessment provided by survey respondents.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 96: Analyzing and forecasting economic fluctuations; 25-47
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The procedure of business cycle turning points identification based on hidden Markov models
    Autorzy:
    Bernardelli, Michał
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500211.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    hidden Markov model
    Viterbi algorithm
    Baum-Welch algorithm
    business tendency surveys
    business cycle turning points
    Opis:
    In the paper the procedure, based on hidden Markov chains with conditional normal distributions and uses algorithms such as time series decompositions (STL), Baum-Welch algorithm, Viterbi algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations, is proposed to analyze data out of the business tendency survey conducted by the Research Institute for Economic Development, Warsaw School of Economics. There are considered three types of models, namely, with two-state, three-state and four-state Markov chains. Results of the procedure could be treated as an approximation of business cycle turning points. The performed analysis speaks in favor of multistate models. Due to, an increasing with the number of states, numerical instability, it is not obvious which model should be considered as the best one. For this purpose various optimization criteria are taken into consideration: information criteria (AIC, BIC) and the maximum-likelihood, but also frequency of obtaining a given set of parameters in the Monte Carlo simulations. The results are confronted with the turning points dated by OECD. The tested models were compared in terms of their effectiveness in detecting of turning points. The procedure is a step into automation of business cycle analysis based on results of business tendency surveys. Though this automation covers only some models from millions of possibilities, the procedure turns out to be extremely accurate in business cycle turning points identification, and the approach seems to be an excellent alternative for classical methods.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 96: Analyzing and forecasting economic fluctuations; 5-23
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Consensus in Business Tendency Surveys: Comparison of Alternative Measures
    Porównanie metod pomiaru konsensusu w testach koniunktury
    Autorzy:
    Tomczyk, Emilia
    Kowalczyk, Barbara
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/23352201.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023-12-29
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
    Tematy:
    przetwórstwo przemysłowe
    konsensus
    oczekiwania
    dane jakościowe
    testy koniunktury
    manufacturing
    consensus
    expectations
    qualitative data
    business tendency surveys
    Opis:
    In this article, we aim to compare various methods of evaluating consensus in qualitative business surveys in which respondents express expectations on the ordered scale. A reliable method of measuring degree of consensus would provide researchers with valuable information, offering a leading indicator of respondent sentiment. However, there is no single generally accepted mathematical measure applicable to evaluating agreement among respondents. Several approaches are mentioned in previous studies, including indicators based on statistical dispersion, Shannon entropy, and multi-dimensional simplex. We present measures of consensus defined in literature and discuss their advantages and limitations. We then employ these indicators to expectations expressed in Polish business tendency survey in manufacturing, and compare results across various economic variables. In several cases, we find patterns in the behavior of measures of consensus: expected prices are characterized by the highest degree of consensus among respondents, and expected production and orders – by the lowest degree of consensus. We also find linkages between the degree of consensus and degree of optimism among respondents as measured by the balance statistic for prices, employment, and general business conditions.
    W niniejszym artykule porównujemy różne metody oceny konsensusu w testach koniunktury, w których respondenci wyrażają oczekiwania na skali uporządkowanej. Wiarygodna metoda pomiaru siły konsensusu w oczekiwaniach respondentów dostarczyłaby ekonomistom cennych informacji, stanowiąc wiodący wskaźnik nastrojów podmiotów gospodarczych. Nie ma jednak jednej ogólnie przyjętej miary matematycznej służącej do oceny zgodności między wyrażanymi przez respondentów opiniami. W literaturze wymienianych jest kilka miar, w tym wskaźniki oparte na miarach dyspersji, entropii i wielowymiarowym simpleksie. W artykule przedstawiamy zdefiniowane w literaturze miary konsensusu oraz omawiamy ich zalety i ograniczenia. Następnie wykorzystujemy te wskaźniki do analizy oczekiwań wyrażonych w teście koniunktury w przetwórstwie przemysłowym w Polsce i porównujemy wyniki dla różnych zmiennych ekonomicznych. W kilku przypadkach znajdujemy powtarzalne schematy w zachowaniu miar konsensusu: oczekiwania cenowe charakteryzują się najwyższym stopniem konsensusu, a oczekiwania na temat produkcji i zamówień – najniższym. Wskazujemy również powiązania między stopniem konsensusu a stopniem optymizmu wśród respondentów mierzonym statystykami bilansowymi w przypadku cen, zatrudnienia i ogólnej sytuacji gospodarczej.
    Źródło:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2023, 316, 4; 17-29
    2300-5238
    Pojawia się w:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-9 z 9

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