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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 44
Tytuł:
Further Evidences of the role of Personality on Affective Forecasting
Autorzy:
Hansenne, Michel
Christophe, Virginie
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2122169.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
affective forecasting
personality
extraversion
neuroticism
Opis:
While personality is strongly related to experienced emotions, few studies examined the role of personality traits on affective forecasting. In the present study, we investigated the relationships between extraversion and neuroticism personality traits and affective predictions about academic performance. Participants were asked to predict their emotional reactions two months before they will get their results for one important exam. At the same time, personality was assessed with the Big Five Inventory. All the participants were contacted by a text message eight hours after that the results were available, and they were requested to rate their experienced affective state. Results show moderate negative correlations between neuroticism and both predicted and experienced feelings, and that extraversion exhibits a weak positive correlation with predicted feelings, but not with experienced feelings. Taken together, these findings confirm that extraversion and neuroticism shape emotional forecasts, and suggest that affective forecasting interventions based on personality could probably enhance their efficiencies.
Źródło:
Polish Psychological Bulletin; 2019, 50, 3; 270-274
0079-2993
Pojawia się w:
Polish Psychological Bulletin
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the demand for transport services on the example of a selected logistic operator
Autorzy:
Grzelak, Małgorzata
Borucka, Anna
Buczyński, Zbigniew
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/223984.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
multiple regression
forecasting
cross-docking
Opis:
The number of shipments is growing every year, and as a result, new transport companies arise. The increase in competition requires from entrepreneurs to apply solutions increasing the level of services provided in order to best satisfy the needs of the customers. In this aspect, minimizing the time of deliveries is extremely important, and it can be achieved, for example, by implementing the cross-docking method. It consists in consolidation of cargo from different shipment locations that is delivered in the same direction. The main feature of the above method is to keep the labor intensity of operations and the interference in the cargo to the minimum. The purpose of this article is to present a research on a logistic operator working based on a cross-docking warehouse with a capacity significantly lower than the average daily quantity of shipments handled. This requires both effective management of the available space and minimizing the time spent on manipulation activities. Therefore, it is important to know the expected number of parcels that are planned to be received and shipped on a given day in order to coordinate the work in the warehouse. It is possible to estimate it by using mathematical methods of forecasting. One of them - the multiple regression - is presented in this article. The calculations were made on the basis of collected empirical observations concerning orders for pallet spaces placed by customers. Such a forecast allows for improvement of the processes of planning and management of the possessed resources. It allows to adjust the number of warehouse workers or vehicles necessary for internal transport to the expected needs. Ultimately, it may translate into more efficient functioning not only of the surveyed branch, but also of the whole network.
Źródło:
Archives of Transport; 2019, 52, 4; 81-93
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the distribution of precipitate diameters in the presence of changes in the structure of the material
Autorzy:
Zieliński, A.
Miczka, M.
Golański, G.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/356680.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
microstructure
precipitates
statistics
forecasting
ageing
Opis:
The results of investigations on the microstructure of T23 and T24 low-alloy steels as well as P91 and P92 high-chromium steels in the as-received condition and after 70.000 h annealing at 550-650°C are presented. The quantitative analysis of the existing precipitates was performed for representative images of microstructure. The statistical analysis of collected data allowed the parameters of a selected theoretical statistical distribution to be estimated. A forecast of average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 100,000 hours at 550 and 600°C for T23 and T24 steels and at 600 and 650°C for P91 and P92 steels was calculated. The obtained results of investigations have made it possible to compare changes in the microstructure of various steel grades due to long-term impact of elevated temperature. They have also confirmed the possibility of using, in evaluating the degradation degree of materials in use, the forecasting methods that derive from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and forecast by analogy methods. The presented approach allows the development of a forecast of precipitate diameter probability density under the microstructure instability conditions for selected steel grades. The assessment of material condition that takes into consideration, but is not limited to, the precipitate diameter measurement is useful as an assessment component in estimating the time of safe service of power unit elements working under creep conditions.
Źródło:
Archives of Metallurgy and Materials; 2017, 62, 1; 273-280
1733-3490
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Metallurgy and Materials
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Natural and anthropogenic causes of climate changes
Autorzy:
Haman, Krzysztof
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/703442.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
climate change
greenhouse effect
climate forecasting
Opis:
The paper gives a short review of the basic physical mechanisms responsible for climate changes with particular attention paid to the structure of the Atmosphere–the Rest of the Earth dynamical system and its chaotic nature. The essence of "greenhouse effect" is explained and input of various natural and anthropogenic factors into it is presented. Problems, difficulties and uncertainties connected with reconstruction of past climates and and forcasting the future are discussed. Particular role of mathematical modelling in understanding and predicting the evolution of climate is emphasized.
Źródło:
Nauka; 2008, 1
1231-8515
Pojawia się w:
Nauka
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Note on Option Pricing with the Use of Discrete-Time Stochastic Volatility Processes
Autorzy:
Pajor, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483255.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
option pricing
SV model
Bayesian forecasting
Opis:
In this paper we show that in the lognormal discrete-time stochastic volatility model with predictable conditional expected returns, the conditional expected value of the discounted payoff of a European call option is infinite. Our empirical illustration shows that the characteristics of the predictive distributions of the discounted payoffs, obtained using Monte Carlo methods, do not indicate directly that the expected discounted payoffs are infinite.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2009, 1, 1; 71-81
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect – an empirical insight
Autorzy:
Nielsen, P.
Michna, Z.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407121.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
supply chain
bullwhip effect
inventory policy
lead time demand
order-up-to-level policy
stochastic lead time
demand forecasting
lead time forecasting
lead time demand forecasting
Opis:
In this article, we review the research state of the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times. We analyze problems arising in a supply chain when lead times are not deterministic. Using real data from a supply chain, we confirm that lead times are stochastic and can be modeled by a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables. This underlines the need to further study supply chains with stochastic lead times and model the behavior of such chains.
Źródło:
Management and Production Engineering Review; 2018, 9, 1; 65-70
2080-8208
2082-1344
Pojawia się w:
Management and Production Engineering Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the Particle Diameter Size Distribution in P92 (X10CrWMoVNb9-2) Steel After Long-Term Ageing at 600 and 650°C
Autorzy:
Zieliński, A.
Sroka, M.
Miczka, M.
Śliwa, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/355265.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
P92 steel
microstructure
precipitates
statistics
forecasting
Opis:
The investigations on microstructure of P92 steel in the as-received condition and after 105h ageing at 600 and 650°C were carried out. For the recorded images of microstructure, the quantitative analysis of precipitates was performed. On that basis, a statistical analysis of collected data was made with the aim of estimating parameters of selected theoretical statistical distribution. Then, the forecast for average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 1,5*105h at 600 and 650°C was calculated. The obtained results of investigations confirm the possibility of using, in evaluation of degradation degree for materials in use, the forecasting methods derived from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and methods of forecasting by analogy.
Źródło:
Archives of Metallurgy and Materials; 2016, 61, 2A; 753-760
1733-3490
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Metallurgy and Materials
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Grid Search of Convolutional Neural Network model in the case of load forecasting
Autorzy:
Tran, Thanh Ngoc
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1841362.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
load forecasting
grid search
convolutional neural network
Opis:
The Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model is one of the most effective models for load forecasting with hyperparameters which can be used not only to determine the CNN structure and but also to train the CNN model. This paper proposes a frame work for Grid Search hyperparameters of the CNN model. In a training process, the optimalmodels will specify conditions that satisfy requirement for minimum of accuracy scoresof Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). In the testing process, these optimal models will be used to evaluate the results along with all other ones. The results indicated that the optimal models have accuracy scores near the minimum values. Load demand data of Queensland (Australia) and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) were utilized to verify the accuracy and reliability of the Grid Search framework.
Źródło:
Archives of Electrical Engineering; 2021, 70, 1; 25-36
1427-4221
2300-2506
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Electrical Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables
Autorzy:
Koop, Gary
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483265.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
Bayesian VAR
forecasting
time-varying coefficients
state-space model
Opis:
This paper discusses the challenges faced by the empirical macroeconomist and methods for surmounting them. These challenges arise due to the fact that macroeconometric models potentially include a large number of variables and allow for time variation in parameters. These considerations lead to models which have a large number of parameters to estimate relative to the number of observations. A wide range of approaches are surveyed which aim to overcome the resulting problems. We stress the related themes of prior shrinkage, model averaging and model selection. Subsequently, we consider a particular modelling approach in detail. This involves the use of dynamic model selection methods with large TVP-VARs. A forecasting exercise involving a large US macroeconomic data set illustrates the practicality and empirical success of our approach.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2012, 4, 3; 143-167
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Case study about economic order quantities and comparison of results from conventional EOQ model and response surface-based approach
Autorzy:
Yıldız, R.
Yaman, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/406756.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
economic order quantity
Pareto analysis
response surface
demand forecasting
Opis:
This study involves the implementation of an economic order quantity (EOQ) model which is an inventory control method in a ceramic factory. Two different methods were applied for the calculation of EOQs. The first method is to determine EOQ values using a response surface method-based approach (RSM). The second method uses conventional EOQ calculations. To produce a ceramic product, 281 different and additive materials may be used. First, Pareto (ABC) analysis was performed to determine which of the materials have higher priority. Because of this analysis, the value of 21 items among 281 different materials and additives were compared to the ratio of the total product. The ratio was found to be 70.4% so calculations were made for 21 items. Usage value for every single item for the years 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively, were obtained from the company records. Eight different demand forecasting methods were applied to find the amount of the demand in EOQ. As a result of forecasting, the EOQ of the items were calculated by establishing a model. Also, EOQ and RSM calculations for the items were made and both calculation results were compared to each other. Considering the obtained results, it is understood that RSM can be used in EOQ calculations rather than the conventional EOQ model. Also, there are big differences between the EOQ values which were implemented by the company and the values calculated. Because of this work, the RSM-based EOQ approach can be used to decide on the EOQ calculations as a way of improving the system performance.
Źródło:
Management and Production Engineering Review; 2018, 9, 3; 23-32
2080-8208
2082-1344
Pojawia się w:
Management and Production Engineering Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Comparing heuristic methods’ performance for pure flow shop scheduling under certain and uncertain demand
Autorzy:
Nurprihatin, Filscha
Jayadi, Ester Lisnati
Tannady, Hendy
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407243.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
forecasting
Monte Carlo simulation
standardized time
heuristic scheduling methods
Opis:
The main aim of this research is to compare the results of the study of demand’s plan and standardized time based on three heuristic scheduling methods such as Campbell Dudek Smith (CDS), Palmer, and Dannenbring. This paper minimizes the makespan under certain and uncertain demand for domestic boxes at the leading glass company industry in Indonesia. The investigation is run in a department called Preparation Box (later simply called PRP) which experiences tardiness while meeting the requirement of domestic demand. The effect of tardiness leads to unfulfilled domestic demand and hampers the production department delivers goods to the customer on time. PRP needs to consider demand planning for the next period under the certain and uncertain demand plot using the forecasting and Monte Carlo simulation technique. This research also utilizes a work sampling method to calculate the standardized time, which is calculated by considering the performance rating and allowance factor. This paper contributes to showing a comparison between three heuristic scheduling methods performances regarding a real-life problem. This paper concludes that the Dannenbring method is suitable for large domestic boxes under certain demand while Palmer and Dannenbring methods are suitable for large domestic boxes under uncertain demand. The CDS method is suitable to prepare small domestic boxes for both certain and uncertain demand.
Źródło:
Management and Production Engineering Review; 2020, 11, 2; 50-61
2080-8208
2082-1344
Pojawia się w:
Management and Production Engineering Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A new method of potato late blight forecasting in the Czech Republic
Autorzy:
Litschmann, T.
Hausvater, E.
Dolezal, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2082794.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
comparison using methods
forecasting models
late blight
Phytophthora
infestans
potato
Opis:
This study describes a newly developed index for predicting and forecasting the first (and potentially subsequent) timing of fungicide application against late blight in potato crops based on weather variables measured close to the crop. Inputs for index calculation were the following: daily minimum temperature, mean relative air humidity and daily precipita- tion. The decisive moment in the process of forecasting is the sum of daily index values for the previous 5 days. The index was tested in various localities of the Czech and the Slovak Republics for several years with a relatively high success rate exceeding the accuracy of previously applied strategies – NoBlight and negative prognosis. In comparison to the men- tioned methods, the calculated index corresponded very well to long-term wet periods and indicated the first application date correctly. In years with no wet periods (in this case, 2015 and 2017), it allowed postponing the first application and reducing the number of required sprays during the growing season. The method does not depend on determining the emer- gence date, so it can be presented on the internet without cooperation with specific growers in a given locality, and thus supply information for a wider range of users. With knowledge about crop development and the degree of resistance to late blight of grown varieties, users can subsequently choose a specific fungicide and its application date.
Źródło:
Journal of Plant Protection Research; 2020, 60, 2; 134-140
1427-4345
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Plant Protection Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Financial Indicators Leading Real Economic Activity - the Case of Poland
Autorzy:
Grabowski, Szymon
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483363.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
forecasting
rational expectations
financial system
term spreads
real economic activity
Opis:
In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future real economic activity from the performance of financial markets. However, this study goes further and shows that it is not only possible to use expectations derived from financial markets to forecast future economic activity, but that data about the financial system can be used for this purpose as well. This paper sheds light on the ability to forecast real economic activity, based on additional and different financial variables than what have been presented so far. The research is conducted for the Polish emerging economy on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that, based purely on the data from the financial system, it is possible to construct reasonable measures that can, even for an emerging economy, effectively forecast future real economic activity. The outcomes are proved by two different econometric methods, namely, by a time series analysis and by a probit model. All presented models are tested in-sample and out-of-sample.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2009, 1, 4; 311-332
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Shop floor-level control of manufacturing companies: an interview study in Finland
Autorzy:
Tokola, H.
Järvenpää, E.
Salonen, T.
Lanz, M.
Koho, M.
Niemi, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407355.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
demand forecasting
shop floor control
production flexibility
inventory control
interview
Opis:
This paper publishes the results of interviews regarding shop-floor-level control of 18 Finnish manufacturing companies. The interviews had 17 open questions relating to demand characteristics, shop floor-level control issues, production flexibility, inventory control, and potential development areas. In order to get insights from the interviews, this paper analyses the answers from the interviews and categorises them into typical answers. The companies that were interviewed are also categorised as small companies with their own end products, subcontractors, or large companies with their own end products, and the emphasis of the analysis is on how companies differ in their shop floor-level control. The results show that different types of companies have different characteristics. Small companies are characterised by constant workflow, seasonal trends in demand, and the use of forecasts. Subcontractors have great daily variation in their demand and processing times. Large companies tend to focus on inventory issues.
Źródło:
Management and Production Engineering Review; 2015, 6, 1; 51-58
2080-8208
2082-1344
Pojawia się w:
Management and Production Engineering Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality
Autorzy:
Stelmasiak, Damian
Szafrański, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076506.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
Bayesian shrinkage
VAR models
seasonality
forecasting inflation
density-based scores
Opis:
Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models offer a practical solution to the parameter proliferation concerns as they allow to introduce a priori information on seasonality and persistence of inflation in a multivariate framework. We investigate alternative prior specifications in the case of time series with a clear seasonal pattern. In the empirical part we forecast the monthly headline inflation in the Polish economy over the period 2011-2014 employing two popular BVAR frameworks: a steady-state reduced-form BVAR and just-identified structural BVAR model. To evaluate the forecast performance we use the pseudo realtime vintages of timely information from consumer and financial markets. We compare different models in terms of both point and density forecasts. Using formal testing procedure for density-based scores we provide the empirical evidence of superiority of the steady-state BVAR specifications with tight seasonal priors.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2016, 1; 21-42
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 44

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