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    Tytuł:
    The application of trend estimation model in predicting the average selling price of timber
    Autorzy:
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Górna, Aleksandra
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2010868.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    wood economics
    forest economics
    price forecast
    prediction methods
    trend estimation model
    Opis:
    The article analyzes the possibility of adopting trend estimation model to predict the average selling price of timber (CGUS). The study used information about the average selling prices of timber in chosen periods (2006-2017). The data concerning the actual CGUS was used to create a trend estimation model. The models and CGUS predictions were conducted based on three different time series encompassing 5-year periods. The predicted (CGUS) trend estimation in particular years was requested based on extrapolation, which exceeded the accepted set of information used in the study to create a trend estimation model. On the basis of the conducted study it was ascertained that the method of modeling linear trend estimation should be adopted in the price prediction process. The error assessment with which the linear function formulas are burdened, it was noticed that the value of the coefficient of residual variation was between 4.40% and 7.82%. It was also noticed that the linear modeling of CGUS trend estimation, despite unfavorable values of coefficient of determination and convergence, to some extent, can be viewed as an assistance tool in the decisionmaking process in the scope of predicting the height of the analyzed price. This view was supported by the achieved predictions which were verified with the actual prices of timber. The price difference between the actual and the predicted one was between -1.59 PLN to 2.27 PLN, and in relative terms the predictive error was between 0.83 to 1.15%. In our opinion the presented research process can constitute a reference point as a comparative element to verify the results for other, new price prediction models. The process of modeling timber prices should be extended by other predicators which are connected with forest market chain.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2020, 63, 206; 147-159
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Predykcja cen surowca drzewnego na podstawie siedmioletniego modelu tendencji rozwojowej
    Forecasting prices of timber raw material based on a seven-year development trend model
    Autorzy:
    Górna, A.
    Adamowicz, K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/979018.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    rynek drzewny
    surowce drzewne
    ceny
    prognozy cen
    modele liniowe
    leśnictwo
    wood market
    prediction
    price of wood
    forest marketing
    linear model
    forestry economics
    Opis:
    The article analyzes the possibility of using a seven−year development trend model to forecast the average price of wood sales (CGUS). Price models and forecasts were made on the basis of three different time series covering 7−year periods. The forecast of timber prices in individual years was developed on the basis of extrapolation going beyond the set of information adopted for research used to build the development trend model. We found that the size of the indicators of determination of the analyzed functions ranged from 0.5 to 0.6, and the convergence rates from 0.5 to 0.4. This means that the linear functions were characterized by poor adjustment to real prices. Despite this, the timber price forecasts differed from the empirical prices from PLN 1.81 to 13.91. In relative categories, the forecast error was in the range from 0.92 to 7.28%. Therefore, in our opinion, the research process presented can be a reference point as a comparative element to verify forecast results for other (non−linear) price forecasting models. The process of modeling timber raw material prices should be extended to other predictors related to the forest marketing chain. The predicted results from these models cannot be worse than those obtained by forecasting using linear functions
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2020, 164, 03; 206-215
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A comparison of prediction efficiency for timber prices in Poland in times of economic crisis with the application of the linear approximation method and brown’s exponential smoothing model
    Autorzy:
    Górna, Aleksandra
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2067432.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    forest economics
    market
    price
    prediction
    raw wood
    Opis:
    An analysis was made of two prediction methods: the Linear Approximation Method (LAM) and Brown’s Exponential Smoothing Model (BESM). These two methods were investigated and compared in terms of their efficiency in timber price prediction. Models and price predictions were prepared based on three time series (5-, 7- and 9-year) for three years: 2015, 2016 and 2017. The analyses were conducted using data on mean annual timber prices from the period 2006-2017. This meant that the time series included the years of the 2007-2008 economic crisis. Prediction efficiency was evaluated by comparing the results obtained with actual timber prices in the years 2015-2017. It was found that the predictions generated by LAM were better than those produced by BESM. The smallest relative and absolute errors of prediction were obtained applying the linear function: Υt^ = 5.277t + 161.70. This function was constructed based on a 5-year time series. Absolute error amounted to 1.59 PLN (€0.35). Relative error was below 1%. The results of this work suggest that further studies are desirable to investigate the applicability of trend analysis to the prediction of timber prices with the inclusion of analyses of nonlinear trends. The present results of timber price modelling may provide a basis to search for a homogeneous model of timber price prediction adapted to specific conditions of timber sales.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2021, 64, 208; 135--147
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Cointegration analysis in the Central European spruce timber market
    Autorzy:
    Kożuch, Anna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2067428.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    wood economics
    timber market
    timber price
    market co-integration
    Opis:
    The oversupply of spruce timber in Central Europe reduces softwood prices, compromising the profitability of forest holdings. To date, relationships between Central European timber markets have been relatively little studied; the same is true of the factors affecting roundwood price variability and fluctuations in that region. An understanding of changes in those markets and linkages between them is important not only for forest owners and managers, but also for companies in the wood sector. The present work describes market analysis in terms of long-term correlations between the Austrian, Czech, Polish, and Slovak markets (cointegration analysis). Cause-and-effect relationships between the analyzed markets were verified using the Granger causality test. The Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests revealed a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed spruce sawlog markets, except for Slovakia. Bidirectional causality was found between the Austrian, Czech, and Polish markets. However, there was no evidence for the integration of pulpwood markets, which indicates their independence.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2021, 64, 208; 119--133
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Wpływ wad drewna wielkowymiarowego na przychody z jego sprzedaży
    Effect of defects on income from the sales of large dimension timber
    Autorzy:
    Szramka, H.
    Bieniaszewski, T.
    Auguścik, L.
    Bobek, J.
    Adamowicz, K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/987045.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    lesnictwo
    ekonomika lesnictwa
    surowce drzewne
    obnizenie jakosci
    drewno wielkowymiarowe
    wady drewna
    drewno
    sprzedaz
    przychody
    Nadlesnictwo Zaporowo
    forest stands
    health
    timber
    wood defects
    forest economics
    Opis:
    Harvested timber has many various wood defects. Analyses were carried out on material collected in Zaporowo Forest District (northern Poland). Results show that various defects were found in 35% of harvested timber on average. The share of timber with defects varied among individual species (pine – 44%, spruce – 22%, oak – 14%, birch – 9%, beech – 5%, lime and larch – 2% each, hornbeam and alder – 1% each). The individual wood defects appeared in harvested timber with following frequency: knots – 55%, knobs – 22%, foreign bodies – 7%, curvature – 5%, inner rot – 5%, galls – 2%, blue stain – 1%, insect holes – 1%, false heartwood – 1%, and cracks – 1%. Timber defects resulted in reduction of income from the sales. A decrease in income caused by various defects amounted from 0.07 PLN/m3 for brown sap stain to 68.83 PLN/m3 for knots. The greatest effect of wood defects on the reduction of income from sales was recorded for oak timber (518.30 PLN/m3), while the smallest for aspen (4.63 PLN/m3). Due to the fact that in almost all analysed tree species the dominant effect on the reduction of income from timber sales was caused by knots (open knots and knobs) systematic solutions need to be found in order to reduce the effect of this defect. It is particularly important in the case of oak timber, where a decrease in income from timber sales connected with this defect was the greatest.
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2017, 161, 03; 238-246
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5

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