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Tytuł:
A Critical Realist Perspective on Decisions Involving Risk and Uncertainty
Autorzy:
Ranyard, Rob
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/430361.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
decision making
critical realism
risk
uncertainty
Opis:
The relevance to decision research of recent advances in the philosophy of social science is considered. The critical realism of Roy Bhaskar argues for the identification of contextually contingent explanatory mechanisms at multiple levels based on concepts grounded in intersubjectively shared reality. Using examples from the author’s and other’s research on the psychology of decisions involving risk and uncertainty, this paper explores the implications of taking a critical realist approach. It is argued that critical realism has the potential to advance and unify disparate experimental and naturalistic lines of research. Furthermore, a diverse range of experimental, process-tracing and observational methods can play important complementary roles in developing fruitful critical realist explanations of decisions involving risk and uncertainty.
Źródło:
Polish Psychological Bulletin; 2014, 45, 1; 3-11
0079-2993
Pojawia się w:
Polish Psychological Bulletin
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Decision Rule for Uncertain Multi-Criteria Pure Decision Making and Independent Criteria
Autorzy:
Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/429875.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet w Białymstoku. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu w Białymstoku
Tematy:
uncertainty
multi-criteria decision-making
pure strategies
one-shot decisions
independent criteria
two-stage models
Opis:
The paper is concerned with multi-criteria decision-making under uncertainty with scenario planning. This topic has been explored by many researchers since almost all real-world decision problems contain multiple conflicting criteria and a deterministic evaluation of criteria is often impossible. We propose a procedure for uncertain multi-objective optimization which can be applied when seeking a pure strategy. A pure strategy, as opposed to a mixed strategy, allows the decision-maker to select and perform only one accessible alternative. The new approach takes into account the decision-maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals) and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem). It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies), see decision-making under complete uncertainty or decision-making under strategic uncertainty. The novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets.
Źródło:
Optimum. Economic Studies; 2017, 3(87)
1506-7637
Pojawia się w:
Optimum. Economic Studies
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A decision rule for uncertain multicriteria mixed decision making based on the coefficient of optimism
Autorzy:
Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/578578.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Modele optymalizacyjne
Niepewność
Optymalizacja wielokryterialna
Planowanie scenariuszowe
Podejmowanie decyzji w warunkach niepewności
Wielokryterialne podejmowanie decyzji
Decision making under uncertainty
Multiple criteria optimization
Multiple-criteria decision making
Optimizing models
Scenario planning
Uncertainty
Opis:
This paper is devoted to multicriteria decision making under uncertainty with scenario planning. This topic has been explored by many researchers since almost all real-world decision problems contain multiple conflicting criteria and a deterministic criteria evaluation is often impossible. We propose a procedure for uncertain multi-objective optimization which may be applied when a mixed strategy is sought after. A mixed strategy, as opposed to a pure strategy, allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new approach takes into account the decision maker’s preference structure and attitude towards risk. This attitude is measured by the coefficient of optimism on the basis of which a set of the most probable events is suggested and an optimization problem is formulated and solved.
Źródło:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making; 2015, 10; 32-47
2084-1531
Pojawia się w:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A new methodology of accounting for uncertainty factors in multiple criteria decision making problems
Autorzy:
Kalika, V. I.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/308942.pdf
Data publikacji:
2004
Wydawca:
Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
multiple criteria decision making
uncertainty factors
reasonable solutions
multi-level hierarchical system of multi-variant computation series
stable-optimal solutions
scenarios
Monte Carlo simulations
Opis:
A new approach is proposed to select a predetermined number of "reasonable" (the best in a certain sense) alternatives from the considerable (maybe a vast) set of initial alternatives according to an arbitrary number of optimization criteria and accounting for uncertainty factors. The approach is based on using a special intuitive methodology, developed to account for uncertainty factors when solving such multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. This methodology is based on performing multi-variant computations (MVC) and finding their "stable-optimal" solutions, and it's realized as a multi-level hierarchical system of MVC series. It's possible to use this methodology for solving various real problems.
Źródło:
Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology; 2004, 3; 44-56
1509-4553
1899-8852
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A probabilistic approach to assessment of the quality of drinking water
Autorzy:
Wątor, Katarzyna
Kmiecik, Ewa
Postawa, Adam
Rusiniak, Piotr
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/94629.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Tematy:
QA/QC
water intended for human consumption
heavy metals
uncertainty
decision rules
woda przeznaczona do spożycia
metale ciężkie
niepewność
reguły decyzyjne
Opis:
Knowledge of uncertainty in analytical results is of prime importance in assessments of compliance with requirements set out for the quality of water intended for human consumption. Assessments of drinking water quality can be per-formed using either a deterministic or a probabilistic method. In the former approach, every single result is referred directly to the parametric value, while in the probabilistic method uncertainty related to analytical results is taken into account during the decision-making process. In the present research, laboratory uncertainty and uncertainty deter-mined on the basis of results of analyses of duplicate samples collected in two Polish cities were compared and used in the probabilistic approach of water quality assessment. Using the probabilistic method, more results were considered to be “above the parametric value”. Most excesses were observed when the maximum allowable uncertainty as set out in the Regulation of the Minister of Health of 7 December 2017 was used, which is due to the highest values of these uncertainties. The lowest values above parametric values in the probabilistic approach were observed when measurement uncertainty was considered.
Źródło:
Geologos; 2019, 25, 3; 249-254
1426-8981
2080-6574
Pojawia się w:
Geologos
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A scenario-based shortest path algorithm for optimizing the sequence of choices under uncertainty
Scenariuszowy algorytm najkrótszej ścieżki do optymalizacji sekwencji decyzji w warunkach niepewności
Autorzy:
Gaspars-Wieloch, H.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/326883.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
Tematy:
shortest path problem
sequence of choices
innovative projects
innovation project
uncertainty
decision maker
attitude towards risk
optimization model
zagadnienie najkrótszej drogi w grafie
sekwencja decyzji
projekt innowacyjny
niepewność
decydent
nastawienie do ryzyka
model optymalizacyjny
Opis:
The paper presents a procedure based on the shortest path problem (SPP) and on scenario planning. The goal of the method is to find the optimal (with respect to a chosen criterion) sequence of choices under uncertainty, i.e. when at least one parameter of the decision problem is not deterministic. In contrast to existing approaches concerning SPP with uncertainty, we assume that the probability of the occurrence of particular events is not known. The decision rule can be successfully applied for instance to innovative or innovation projects (for both reactive and proactive management) and takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk.
Artykuł przedstawia procedurę opartą o zagadnienie najkrótszej ścieżki w grafie (ang. SPP – shortest path problem) i o planowanie scenariuszowe. Celem metody jest znalezienie optymalnej (ze względu na wybrane kryterium) sekwencji decyzji w warunkach niepewności, tj. wówczas, gdy przynajmniej jeden parametr problemu decyzyjnego nie jest deterministyczny. W przeciwieństwie do istniejących podejść dotyczących SPP w warunkach niepewności, przyjmujemy, iż prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia poszczególnych scenariuszy nie jest znane. Opracowana reguła decyzyjna może z powodzeniem znaleźć zastosowanie przy realizacji projektów innowacyjnych (w przypadku zarządzania zarówno reaktywnego, jak i proaktywnego). Uwzględnia ona nastawienie decydenta do ryzyka.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska; 2017, 113; 83-95
1641-3466
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of uninorms to aggregate uncertainty from many classifiers
Autorzy:
Drygaś, Paweł
Bazan, Jan G.
Pusz, Piotr
Knap, Maksymilian
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/384601.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Przemysłowy Instytut Automatyki i Pomiarów
Tematy:
aggregation function
decision making
classifier
uncertainty area
Opis:
In this contribution we want to present the concept of uncertainty area of classifiers and an algorithm that uses uninorms to minimize the area of uncertainty in the pre‐ diction of new objects by complex classifiers.
Źródło:
Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems; 2019, 13, 4; 85-90
1897-8649
2080-2145
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bipolar Mix – A Method for Mixed Evaluations and its Application to the Ranking of European Projects
Autorzy:
Górecka, Dorota
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/578588.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Decision analysis
European Union
MCDA
Uncertainty modelling
Analiza decyzji
Modelowanie niepewności
Unia Europejska
Wielokryterialne podejmowanie decyzji
Opis:
A great variety of multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) methods has already been developed but few papers have dealt with mixed data (qualitative and quantitative). MCDA techniques accepting different types of evaluations (such as deterministic, stochastic and/or fuzzy ones) are rather rare and not very well known, even though this issue is crucial from a practical point of view, since mixed evaluations occur very frequently in appraising and selecting projects and organizations, as well as in risk management modelling, among other fields. This paper presents a new discrete MCDA tool developed for mixed performances of alternatives called BIPOLAR MIX. It is based on the classical BIPOLAR method proposed by Konarzewska-Gubała (1989), and on its modification, namely the BIPOLAR method with stochastic dominance (SD) rules, proposed by Górecka (2009). A numerical example at the end of the paper illustrates the problem of ordering projects applying for co-financing from the European Union (EU).
Źródło:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making; 2017, 12; 36-48
2084-1531
Pojawia się w:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Conditions of the decision-making process
Autorzy:
Ścibiorek, Z.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/348119.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Akademia Wojsk Lądowych imienia generała Tadeusza Kościuszki
Tematy:
decision
risk
uncertainty
information
determinants
Opis:
In the article it has been emphasized, without analyzing the problematic situation, that making decision is becoming an increasingly complex process. This is influenced by many factors, mainly the dynamism of changes taking place and the significant impact of the environment. Information is essential to take correct and effective decisions. It is not always certain (reliable). Uncertainty and risk accompany decision makers and the point is that the decisions are adequate to the ensuing situation and create realistic determinants for achieving objectives – the implementation of the planned tasks. Interdisciplinary knowledge and high competences of persons making resolutions of complex decision problems are indispensable.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe / Wyższa Szkoła Oficerska Wojsk Lądowych im. gen. T. Kościuszki; 2017, 4; 249-271
1731-8157
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe / Wyższa Szkoła Oficerska Wojsk Lądowych im. gen. T. Kościuszki
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Critical analysis of classical scenario-based decision rules for pure strategy searching
Autorzy:
Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1858406.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
Tematy:
classical uncertainty one-criterion decision rules
scenario planning
pure strategy
decision maker preferences
economic case study
klasyczne jednokryterialne reguły decyzyjne
planowanie scenariuszowe
strategia czysta
preferencje decydenta
ekonomiczne studium przypadku
Opis:
Purpose: The contribution briefly presents the essence and applications of the well-known classical decision rules designed for decision making under uncertainty with unknown probabilities and based on scenario planning. We concentrate on games against nature, pure strategy searching and one-criterion optimization. Design/methodology/approach: The main goal of this work is to analyse numerous case studies and formulate conclusions concerning the properties (in particular drawbacks and limitations) of the aforementioned strategic procedures. Findings: The paper focuses on the limited usefulness of classical decision rules in real economic decision problems. It is advised to apply them very carefully. Research limitations/implications: A similar analysis for mixed strategy searching and multi-criteria optimization should be performed within a future research. Originality/value: The work offers numerous practical guidelines modifying existing procedures and allowing decision makers to obtain logic recommendations.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska; 2020, 149; 155-165
1641-3466
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Decision theory under general uncertainty
Autorzy:
Cui, Y.
Guo, R.
Dunne, T.
Guo, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069606.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
statistical decision
state space
action space
uncertain measure
loss function
risk
uncertainty decision
Opis:
The exposure of Toyota management’s cover-up of its faulty car component problems raises a fundamental question: did Toyota management make an appropriate decision taking all uncertainties into account? Statistical decision theory is a framework with a probabilistic foundation, which admits random uncertainty about the real world and human thinking. In general, the uncertainty of the real world is diversified and therefore the effort of trying to deal with different forms of uncertainty with one special form of uncertainty, namely random uncertainty, may be oversimplified. In this paper, we introduce an axiomatic uncertain measure theoretical framework and explore the essential mechanism in formulating a general uncertainty decision theory. We expect that a new understanding of uncertainty and development of a corresponding new uncertainty decision-making approach may assist intelligence communities to survive and deal with the extremely tough and diverse aspects of an uncertain reality.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 51--66
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Autorzy:
Flage, R.
Aven, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069562.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
quantitative risk analysis
QRA
uncertainty
sensitivity analysis
decision support
Opis:
A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a comprehensive, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main pillars of a risk description following this approach. We also indicate how this approach should relate to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. An example is included to illustrate ideas and findings.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 109--115
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Framework for RIDM within functional safety management process
Autorzy:
Barnert, T.
Kosmowski, K.
Śliwiński, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069134.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
functional safety
functional safety management
FSM
safety integrity level
SIL
risk informed decision making
RIDM
safety
security
uncertainty
Opis:
The functional safety management in life cycle is a complex process starting with identifying hazards and defining safety-related functions (SRFs) with regard to the results of risk assessment oriented at determining the safety integrity level of consecutive functions. Another element of such process is a verification of required SIL for considered architectures of safety-related system that implements given safety function. Due to complexity of the problem, to overcome difficulties in safety-related decision making often under considerable uncertainties, usually without taking into account security aspects, we propose to apply the RIDM methodology oriented on functional safety management of programmable control and protection systems in life cycle taking into some more important risk-related factors identified.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 2; 217--226
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Gamble on the Uncertain. Negotiating Medical Decision-Making
Autorzy:
Serra, Helena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2119697.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016-10-31
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
Medical Decision-Making Process
Risk and Uncertainty
Negotiation
Qualitative Study
Portugal
Opis:
The aim of this paper is to analyze the medical decision-making process in the admission of patients into a Liver Transplant Program in a hospital in Lisbon, Portugal. The relationships and main strategies established among the medical specializations involved in this process will be investigated. The theoretical basis was drawn from medical sociology, in particular, from the social constructivist approaches, which highlight the relation between medical power and knowledge in the construction of medical decision-making. I attempt to elucidate the processes of negotiation through which a medical decision is constructed. The research methodology included non-participant observation and semi-structured interviews with participants from the two medical specializations of interest: liver surgeons and hepatologists. The management of risk and uncertainty in relation to patients’ access to liver transplantation is discussed and the strategic alliances that are formed during medical decision-making in search of consensus are investigated. The research findings show that medical practices and knowledge do not converge linearly to produce a coherent network of actions with a view to decision-making. Instead, medical decision-making is constructed through complex processes of negotiation. The different natures and levels of uncertainty and indetermination that are inherent in the social world of medicine have a fundamental influence on medical decision-making.
Źródło:
Qualitative Sociology Review; 2016, 12, 4; 44-59
1733-8077
Pojawia się w:
Qualitative Sociology Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Heuristic methods as a powerful managerial tool for enterprise in times of uncertainty
Metody heurystyczne jako skuteczne narzędzie zarządzania przedsiębiorstwem w czasach niepewności
Autorzy:
Mazurkiewicz, Małgorzata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19944673.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-03-31
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
heuristics
managerial decision-making process
uncertainty
Covid-19 pandemic
Opis:
In managing enterprise, uncertainty belongs to the attributes of the decision making processes. In competitive environments, where success depends on high-quality decisions, taking the wrong steps can lead to loss of market share or even contribute to running out of business. That is why it is important to choose from the many alternatives those methods which will be most effective in solving problems in a simple and quick way, and heuristics offer such a solution, which has proved its usefulness in uncertain business environments. The aim of this study is to present and evaluate heuristic methods and show their specificity and applicability in management science for enterprises in times of uncertainty. In this article, the theoretical aspect of managerial heuristics is presented, and the emphasis is also placed on presenting practical examples of applying heuristics in companies with times of uncertainty, but also in these times of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study also offers conclusions and provides practi al recommendations.
W zarządzaniu przedsiębiorstwem, niepewność należy do atrybutów podejmowanych decyzji menedżerskich. W konkurencyjnych środowiskach, gdzie sukces zależy od wysokiej jakości decyzji, podejmowanie błędnych kroków może doprowadzić do utraty rynku lub nawet przyczynić się do zakończenia działalności. Dlatego tak ważne jest, aby spośród wielu alternatywnych metod wybrać tę, która będzie skuteczna w rozwiązywaniu problemów w prosty i szybki sposób. Heurystyka oferuje rozwiązania, które udowodniają swoją przydatność w niepewnym otoczeniu biznesowym. Celem pracy jest przedstawienie i ocena metod heurystycznych oraz wykazanie ich specyfiki i możliwości zastosowania w naukach o zarządzaniu przedsiębiorstwami w warunkach niepewności. W artykule przybliżono aspekt teoretyczny heurystyk menedżerskich, położono również nacisk na przedstawienie praktycznych przykładów zastosowania heurystyk w przedsiębiorstwach w warunkach niepewności, także w czasie pandemii Covid-19, wyciągnięto wnioski i sformułowano praktyczne rekomendacje.
Źródło:
Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie; 2022, 63, 1; 57-70
1896-656X
Pojawia się w:
Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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