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Tytuł:
How do individual forecasters change their views? An analysis with micro panel data
W jaki sposób prognostycy zmieniają poglądy? Analiza na podstawie mikrodanych panelowych
Autorzy:
Paloviita, Maritta
Viren, Matt
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907318.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
forecasting
survey data
expectations
Opis:
This paper scrutinizes the behavior of individual forecasters included in the Consensus Forecast inflation data for the US. More precisely, we try to determine whether individual forecasters deviate systematically from each other. We examine whether the ranking of forecasters is the same over time. The full micro data set includes 74 forecasters over the period 1989M10-2011M3. The results clearly indicate that the forecasters behave quite persistently so that, for instance, the ranking of forecasters does not change over time. Even so, we also find that the survey values imply reasonable values for the hybrid form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve and that forecaster’s disagreement is positively related to the size of forecast errors.
Przeanalizowano zachowanie się poszczególnych ośrodków prognostycznych ujętych w prognozach Consensus Forecast dla inflacji w USA. Starano się określić, czy poszczególne prognozy systematycznie odbiegają od siebie. W szczególności zbadano, czy ranking ośrodków jest taki sam w czasie. Pełny zestaw danych obejmuje 74 prognostyków w okresie 1989M10– 2011M3. Wyniki wyraźnie wskazują, że prognostycy zachowują się bardzo konsekwentnie tak, że na przykład, ranking ośrodków nie zmienia się w czasie. Ponadto pokazano, że prognostycy są zgodni co do hybrydowej postaci neokeynesowskiej krzywej Phillipsa oraz że różnice pomiędzy nimi są dodatnio skorelowane z wielkością błędów prognozy.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2013, 295
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Rationality of expectations and data vintage: evidence from business tendency surveys
Racjonalność oczekiwań a rocznik danych: wyniki z testu koniunktury
Autorzy:
Tomczyk, Emilia
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424990.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
data revisions
survey data
quantification
expectations
rationality
Opis:
In this paper, the results of the quantification procedures and the properties of expectations series obtained for two data vintages are compared. The volume index of production sold in manufacturing is defined for end-of-sample and real time data, and evaluated against expectations expressed in business tendency surveys. Empirical analysis shows that (1) there are no statistically significant differences between the quantification results obtained on the basis of real time and end-of-sample data, and (2) the results of unbiasedness and orthogonality tests are not influenced by data vintage. Therefore, for the purposes of analyzing the properties of expectations expressed in the business tendency survey, researchers can use easily available end-of-sample data instead of custom-designed and individually compiled real time databases. Also, (3) expectations series are not unbiased or efficient forecasts of changes in production, regardless of data vintage.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2015, 4 (50); 184-195
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Long-run inflation expectations in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: what do the survey responses tell us?
Autorzy:
Oinonen, Sami
Viren, Matti
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22444368.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
inflation expectations
policy credibility
survey data
Opis:
Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns. Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility. Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1?2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables. Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target. 
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2020, 15, 4; 675-695
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Estimation of mask effectiveness perception for small domains using multiple data sources
Autorzy:
Sen, Aditi
Lahiri, Partha
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2028543.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-03-15
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
cross-validation
jackknife
survey data
synthetic estimation
Opis:
Understanding the impacts of pandemics on public health and related societal issues at granular levels is of great interest. COVID-19 is affecting everyone in the globe and mask wearing is one of the few precautions against it. To quantify people's perception of mask effectiveness and to prevent the spread of COVID-19 for small areas, we use Understanding America Study's (UAS) survey data on COVID-19 as our primary data source. Our data analysis shows that direct survey-weighted estimates for small areas could be highly unreliable. In this paper, we develop a synthetic estimation method to estimate proportions of perceived mask effectiveness for small areas using a logistic model that combines information from multiple data sources. We select our working model using an extensive data analysis facilitated by a new variable selection criterion for survey data and benchmarking ratios. We suggest a jackknife method to estimate the variance of our estimator. From our data analysis, it is evident that our proposed synthetic method outperforms the direct survey-weighted estimator with respect to commonly used evaluation measures.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2022, 23, 1; 1-20
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Non-response and Weighting Systems in Business Tendency Surveys: Are Expectations Influenced?
Autorzy:
Tomczyk, Emilia
Kowalczyk, Barbara
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500709.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
expectations
rationality
non-response
weighting
survey data
Opis:
Rationality of economic agents belongs to the basic assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, and for decades it has inspired research on whether expectations are indeed formed rationally. Direct data on expectations are available mainly through business tendency surveys which are subject to various types of non-response problems. Inclination of industrial enterprises to respond may be correlated with values of measured variable, introducing response bias. Response bias may also occur as a result of introducing weighting systems to control variable size of respondents. The two key properties of rational expectations, on which the majority of empirical analyses of survey data are focused, are unbiasedness and orthogonality. We analyze several sample balance statistics and expectations series based on quantified survey data, taking into consideration issues of non-response and weighting schemes. Alternative definitions of expectations series aim to account for: 1) influence of arbitrary assumptions concerning weighting of individual data, 2) changing sample structure that results from non-response, 3) response rates varying with degree of optimism / pessimism of respondents. Results of our analysis indicate that expectations concerning relative changes in production are unbiased but not efficient with respect to freely available information, namely, observed relative changes in production (lagged three months) and expectations balance (lagged two months). This result holds for a range of weighting schemes and non-response issues analyzed, including changes introduced to sample structure by non-response, and increased inclination of “optimists” and “pessimists” to supply answers in the business tendency survey, as long as their shares remain constant in time.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2011, 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference; 101-119
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wage-setting Behavior in France: Additional Evidence from an Ad-hoc Survey
Autorzy:
Montornes, Jeremi
Sauner-Leroy, Jacques-Bernard
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/565721.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Tematy:
wage rigidity
wage-setting behavior
survey data
Opis:
We investigate the wage-setting behavior of French companies using an ad-hoc survey specifically conducted for this study. Our main results are the following. i) Wages are changed infrequently. 75% of firms change their wages once a year. Wage changes occur at regular intervals during the year and are concentrated in January and July. ii) We find a lower degree of downward real wage rigidity and nominal wage rigidity in France compared to the European average. iii) About one third of companies have an internal policy to grant wage increases according to inflation. iv) When companies are faced with adverse shocks, the latter are partially transmitted into prices. Companies also adopt cost-cutting strategies. The wage of newly hired employees plays an important role in this adjustment.
Źródło:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics; 2015, 1(3); 5-23
2353-6845
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
We are more alike than you think. Age distribution of the quality of life among persons with and without disabilities
Autorzy:
Antczak, Radosław
Grabowska, Izabela
Zwierzchowski, Jan
Panek, Tomasz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1827559.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-12-30
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
quality of life
persons with disabilities
age
survey data
Opis:
Purpose: In this article we apply the age perspective to assess the quality of life (QoL) of persons with disabilities. Using a single measurement tool, we compare age profiles in the quality of life of persons with disabilities to the population without disabilities. By doing so, we examine whether the general patterns (such as U-shaped profile) are observed also among the population with disabilities, hence assessing how heterogenous this group is. Methods: We have constructed a multidimensional measurement model identifying overall and nine dimensions of the quality of life using structural equation modelling. The model conceptually is based on the Eurostat guidelines. All analyses are based on EU-SILC survey data, carried out in Poland in 2015. Results: The quality of life for both groups has inverse, right-skewed U-shape. The maximum value is achieved for the age group of 30–34 and after this threshold a constant decline is observed. The QoL scores for the population with disabilities are obviously significantly lower. Additionally, they are more heterogenous, and with greater variation between men and women. In a majority of the domains we also observe lower scores for persons with disabilities. However, people with disabilities are similarly diversified by age as persons without disabilities. Conclusion: Our study suggests that people with disabilities are similarly diversified by age as persons without disabilities. Therefore, disability means something different for younger and older persons and this difference is reflected in their quality of life. It means that public policy for persons with disabilities should also be diversified, avoiding ‘one-for-all’ policy.
Źródło:
Studia Demograficzne; 2020, 178, 2; 75-105
0039-3134
Pojawia się w:
Studia Demograficzne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
DISPERSION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Autorzy:
Acedański, Jan
Włodarczyk, Julia
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/517305.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
inflation expectations
survey data
global financial crisis
European Union
Opis:
Inflation expectations, both their median and dispersion, are of great importance to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union. Using European Commission’s survey data, we find that in the early phase of the crisis the dispersion dropped rapidly but then, after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the trend reversed and these fluctuations cannot be explained by movements of inflation rates and other commonly used factors. We also observe that, in the new European Union member states, the initial drop of the dispersion was weaker whereas the subsequent rise was stronger as compared to the old member states.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2016, 11, 4; 737-749
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Emigration in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Empirical Evidence from the Last Two Decades
Autorzy:
Efendic, Adnan
Husić-Mehmedović, Melika
Turulja, Lejla
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48792087.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czasopisma i Monografie PAN
Tematy:
emigration intentions
emigration driver
survey data
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Opis:
In this study, we empirically analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusing on individual, household, regional and socio-economic determinants, including specific influences relevant to the post-conflict nature of this society. We rely on a series of annual country-representative survey data collected over the period 2006–2010 and the latest repeated survey from 2019. This gives us the possibility to see whether there are changes in observed determinants with a decade’s difference, all investigated through non-linear econometric models. Moreover, we supplement quantitative research with qualitative in-depth interviews to enrich our results with deeper insights collected from both emigrants and potential emigrants in BiH. Our findings indicate that higher intentions to emigrate are linked to typical individual and household conditions: young, educated and low-income respondents all report high intentions to do so. However, the socio-economic environment characterised by economic – and, even more, by political – instability increases these intentions considerably. Our comparative analysis reports that the socio-economic environment has taken primacy over individual characteristics as drivers of emigrations which dominated a decade ago. Conventional thinking that economic drivers of emigration intentions dominate nowadays have not been confirmed. Policymakers should focus on improving primarily political stability as a measure that will decrease emigration intentions in this post-conflict society.
Źródło:
Central and Eastern European Migration Review; 2023, 12, 2; 53-72
2300-1682
Pojawia się w:
Central and Eastern European Migration Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Dynamics of survey responses before and during the pandemic: entropy and dissimilarity measures applied to business tendency survey data
Autorzy:
Tomczyk, Emilia
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/15021942.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023-03-15
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
business cycles
survey data
expectations
manufacturing industry
COVID-19 pandemic
Opis:
This article is set within the framework of studies focusing on the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on the dynamics of economic activity. For the purposes of the analysis of the expectations expressed in business tendency surveys, the paper aims to verify whether the pandemic of 2020-2022 can be seen as just another contraction phase. Entropy and dissimilarity measures are employed to study the characteristics of the expectations and assessments expressed in the business tendency survey of Polish manufacturing companies. The empirical results show that the dynamics of the manufacturing sector data, particularly as far as general economic conditions are concerned, set the pandemic period apart. The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic expressed in business tendency surveys tend to be unfavourable, but the statistical properties or the degree of the concentration of respondents’ answers do not correspond closely either to the expansion or contraction phases of the business cycle.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2023, 24, 2; 185-199
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Field Survey Versus Excavation – Compatibility of Results Illustrated by the Example of Selected Sites from the A1 Motorway in the Włocławek Province, Poland
Autorzy:
Pyzel, Joanna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/958144.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Rzeszowski. Instytut Archeologii Uniwersytetu Rzeszowskiego. Muzeum Okręgowe w Rzeszowie
Tematy:
survey
emergency excavations
reliability of survey data
dating of survey sites
Polish Archaeological Record
Kuyavia
Opis:
This paper reconsiders the compatibility of results from survey and subsequent excavations as their verification: the issues of detection of sites and the reliability of estimations of their size as well as their dating including the relative visibility of separate chronological units based on surface material are discussed here. This is presented through the example of archaeological investigations conducted due to the construction of the A1 motorway route within the former Włocławek Voivodeship.
Źródło:
Analecta Archaeologica Ressoviensia; 2017, 12; 285-298
2084-4409
Pojawia się w:
Analecta Archaeologica Ressoviensia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Fitting General Linear Model for Longitudinal Survey Data under Informative Sampling
Autorzy:
Eideh, Abdulhakeem A. H.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/465750.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
General Linear Model
Informative sampling
Longitudinal Survey Data
Maximum Likelihood
Sample distribution
Opis:
The purpose of this article is to account for informative sampling in fitting superpopulation model for multivariate observations, and in particular multivariate normal distribution, for longitudinal survey data. The idea behind the proposed approach is to extract the model holding for the sample data as a function of the model in the population and the first order inclusion probabilities, and then fit the sample model using maximum likelihood, pseudo maximum likelihood and estimating equations methods. As an application of the results, we fit the general linear model for longitudinal survey data under informative sampling using different covariance structures: the exponential correlation model, the uniform correlation model, and the random effect model, and using different conditional expectations of first order inclusion probabilities given the study variable. The main feature of the present estimators is their behaviours in terms of the informativeness parameters.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2010, 11, 3; 90-111
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Bayesian Small Area Model with Dirichlet Processes on the Responses
Autorzy:
Yin, Jiani
Nandram, Balgobin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1058988.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-09-04
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
Bayesian computation
bootstrap
predictive inference
robust modeling
computational and model diagnostics
survey data
Opis:
Typically survey data have responses with gaps, outliers and ties, and the distributions of the responses might be skewed. Usually, in small area estimation, predictive inference is done using a two-stage Bayesian model with normality at both levels (responses and area means). This is the Scott-Smith (S-S) model and it may not be robust against these features. Another model that can be used to provide a more robust structure is the two-stage Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) model, which has independent normal distributions on the responses and a single Dirichlet process on the area means. However, this model does not accommodate gaps, outliers and ties in the survey data directly. Because this DPM model has a normal distribution on the responses, it is unlikely to be realized in practice, and this is the problem we tackle in this paper. Therefore, we propose a two-stage non-parametric Bayesian model with several independent Dirichlet processes at the first stage that represents the data, thereby accommodating some of the difficulties with survey data and permitting a more robust predictive inference. This model has a Gaussian (normal) distribution on the area means, and so we call it the DPG model. Therefore, the DPM model and the DPG model are essentially the opposite of each other and they are both different from the S-S model. Among the three models, the DPG model gives us the best head-start to accommodate the features of the survey data. For Bayesian predictive inference, we need to integrate two data sets, one with the responses and other with area sizes. An application on body mass index, which is integrated with census data, and a simulation study are used to compare the three models (S-S, DPM, DPG); we show that the DPG model might be preferred.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2020, 21, 3; 1-19
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zróżnicowanie odpowiedzi respondentów testu koniunktury w świetle miar entropii
Differentiation of Business Tendency Survey Responses: Application of Measures of Entropy
Autorzy:
Tomczyk, Emilia
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500542.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
badania ankietowe
testy koniunktury
oczekiwania
entropia
survey data
business tendency surveys
expectations
entropy
Opis:
Opracowanie prezentuje wyniki zastosowania empirycznej miary entropii rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa w celu oceny zawartości informacyjnej danych pochodzących z testu koniunktury Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH. Miary entropii wyznaczane są dla realizacji i oczekiwań wyrażanych w teście koniunktury, dla wszystkich pytań kwestionariusza kierowanego do przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych, w podziale na sektory własnościowe, klasy wielkości oraz sektor działalności wg klasyfikacji PKD. Z przeprowadzonej analizy empirycznej wynika, że zastosowanie miar entropii statystycznej pozwala zróżnicować odpowiedzi respondentów w przekroju badanych zmiennych ekonomicznych (pytań testu koniunktury) oraz wielkości i sektora działalności przedsiębiorstwa. Szczególnie wysoka niepewność związana jest z pytaniami o wielkość produkcji, portfel zamówień ogółem i zamówień eksportowych, a najmniejsza – z pytaniem o ceny. Przedsiębiorstwa małe cechuje szczególnie wysoka niepewność związana z prognozowaniem i oceną bieżącej sytuacji finansowej,a przedsiębiorstwa duże – wysoka zmienność entropii, odzwierciedlająca znaczące wahania rozkładu odpowiedzi z miesiąca na miesiąc.
This paper presents results of application of statistical entropy to evaluate information content of business tendency surveys administered by the Research Institute for Economic Development, Warsaw School of Economics. Measures of entropy, corresponding to changes observed and predicted by the survey respondents, are calculated for all questions included in the monthly industrial survey, taking into account ownership structure, size, and industrial sector in which an enterprise operates. Empirical results lead to conclusion that measures of statistical entropy allow to differentiate responses of industrial enterprises from the point of view of economic variables included in the questionnaire, size and industrial sector. Questions concerning size of production and number of domestic and export orders are associated with the highest uncertainty, and those pertaining to prices – with the lowest uncertainty. High uncertainty of forecasting and evaluating current financial situation is typical for small enterprises; variable entropy, reflecting significant changes in month-to-month distribution of survey answers, is typical for large firms.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2012, 90: Badania koniunktury - zwierciadło gospodarki. Część I; 229-255
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wyjechać czy zostać? Determinanty zamiarów emigracji zarobkowej z Polski
What Drives Economic Migration Plans? Microdata Analysis for Poland
Autorzy:
Baranowski, Paweł
Gądek, Artur
Stelmasiak, Damian
Wójcik, Szymon
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/576053.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016-08-31
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
migracje
emigracja
diagnoza społeczna
model logitowy
mikroekonometria
migration
socioeconomic survey data
logistic regression
micreconometrics
Opis:
The aim of the paper is to identify factors influencing economic emigration. The authors use data from socioeconomic surveys (Social Diagnosis 2015 and 2013) with samples of more than 18,000 individuals for the Polish economy. They focus on responses to a question about their potential labor emigration plans, which are seen as a prelude to actual emigration. The outcome of this question was binary; hence a logit model was applied. The results indicate that the key drivers of the propensity to emigrate are registered unemployed status, fluency in at least one foreign language, new skills acquired during the year prior to the survey, and social attitude. On the other hand, older people, women and more educated individuals are less eager to emigrate. The propensity to migrate is also determined by family factors.
Artykuł napisano w celu wyznaczenia czynników kształtujących gotowość do emigracji zarobkowej mieszkańców Polski. Posłużono się danymi indywidualnymi pochodzącymi z badania Diagnoza Społeczna 2015 i 2013. Wykorzystano dane z badań, w których respondenci odpowiadali na pytanie o zamiary emigracji zarobkowej, stanowiące ważną przesłankę dla faktycznej emigracji. Udzielone odpowiedzi miały charakter jakościowy (wyrażam chęć/nie wyrażam chęci). Z tego względu narzędziem badawczym był model logitowy, który zapewnia dobre własności statystyczne w przypadku objaśniania zmiennych binarnych. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że najważniejszymi czynnikami zwiększającymi prawdopodobieństwo wyrażenia zamiaru emigracji zarobkowej są: formalny status bezrobotnego, znajomość przynajmniej jednego języka obcego, pozyskanie w minionym roku nowych kwalifikacji oraz szeroko rozumiane niezadowolenie (z sytuacji w kraju, miejscu zamieszkania, własnej sytuacji finansowej). Natomiast czynnikami zmniejszającymi to prawdopodobieństwo są: wiek i płeć (osoby starsze i kobiety rzadziej deklarują zamiar emigracji) oraz wysoki poziom formalnego wykształcenia. Ponadto gotowość do emigracji jest także, w sposób istotny, kształtowana przez sytuację rodzinną respondenta.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2016, 284, 4; 69-89
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 49

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