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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 33
Tytuł:
Modelling the accident probability in large-scale, maritime transportation system
Autorzy:
Blokus-Roszkowska, A.
Montewka, J.
Smolarek, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069467.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
maritime transportation system
safety
collision probability
traffic simulation
semi-Markov model
Opis:
The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables, or they are too slow for effective analysis, due to computational complexity, not necessarily being backed-up with the complexity of the model itself. Thereby, this paper introduces a novel method evaluating the probability of ship-ship collision in the maritime transportation system focusing on the open sea collisions, applying the queuing theory in the simulation model. The model allows relatively fast prediction as it focuses on the specific events (e.g. accidents), instead of simulating the whole traffic. To support this hypothesis a case study is presented focusing on a selected element of transportation system in operation.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 2; 237--244
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the readiness of special vehicles using the semi-Markov model
Prognozowanie gotowości pojazdów specjalnych na podstawie modelu semi-Markowa
Autorzy:
Borucka, Anna
Niewczas, Andrzej
Hasilova, Kamila
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1365303.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
vehicle exploitation system
special vehicles
readiness
semi-Markov model
system eksploatacji samochodów
pojazdy specjalne
gotowość
model semi-Markowa
Opis:
The vehicle exploitation system, consisting of statistically identical objects that perform intervention tasks, not subject to systematic changes, can be modelled as a stationary stochastic process. Such a model allows to determine the probabilistic indicators of current and boundary readiness of the system. This article presents the use of the semi-Markov process, based on three operating states: operation, ready-to-be-used and repair, to study a transport system consisting of special vehicles. On the example of a sample consisting of police patrol cars, experimental studies of the intensity of fleet utilization, time of failure-free operation of vehicles were carried out, and it was demonstrated that the examined transport system is characterized by a satisfactory, stationary readiness coefficient. The developmental possibilities of the presented modelling method were emphasized.
System eksploatacji samochodów, które realizują zadania interwencyjne, niepodlegający systematycznym zmianom może być modelowany jako stacjonarny proces stochastyczny. Taki model pozwala wyznaczyć probabilistyczne wskaźniki bieżącej i granicznej gotowości systemu. W niniejszym artykule, do modelowania systemu eksploatacji pojazdów specjalnych, wykorzystano proces semi-Markowa, oparty na trzech stanach eksploatacyjnych: użytkowania, postoju użytkowego i naprawy. Na przykładzie próby radiowozów policyjnych przeprowadzono doświadczalne badania intensywności użytkowania floty, czasu bezawaryjnej pracy pojazdów a także wykazano, że badany system transportowy charakteryzuje się zadowalającym, stacjonarnym współczynnikiem gotowości. Podkreślono rozwojowe możliwości przedstawionej metody modelowania.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2019, 21, 4; 662-669
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo simulation approach to determination of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas
Autorzy:
Dąbrowska, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/116316.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
oil spills domains
Monte Carlo simulation
determination of oil spill
port area
sea water areas
oil spill
Semi-Markov model
hydro-meteorological conditions
Opis:
Monte Carlo simulation method of oil spill domains determination based on the probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed and its parameters are defined. The general stochastic model of oil spill domain movement for various hydro-meteorological conditions is described. Monte Carlo simulation procedure is created and applied to generating the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions and the prediction of the oil spill domain movement impacted by these changes conditions.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2020, 14, 1; 59-64
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Probabilistic approach to determination of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas
Autorzy:
Dąbrowska, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/116051.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
oil spill
oil spill domains
determination of oil spill
Semi-Markov Model
sea water areas
port area
probabilistic approach
hydro-meteorological conditions
Opis:
Maritime safety involves minimizing error in all aspects of the marine system. Human error has received much importance, being responsible for about 80% of the maritime accident worldwide. Currently, more attention has been focused to reduce human error in marine engine maintenance. On-board marine engine maintenance activities are often complex, where seafarers conduct maintenance activities in various marine environmental (i.e. extreme weather, ship motions, noise, and vibration) and operational (i.e. work overload and stress) conditions. These environmental and operational conditions, in combination with generic human error tendencies, results in innumerable forms of error. There are numerous accidents that happened due to the human error during the maintenance activities of a marine engine. The most severe human error results in accidents due to is a loss of life. Moreover, there are other consequences too such as delaying the productivity of marine operations which results in the financial loss. This study reviews methods that are currently available for identifying, reporting and managing human error in marine engine maintenance. As a basis for this discussion, authors provide an overview of approaches for investigating human error, and a description of marine engine maintenance activities and environmental and operational characteristics.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2020, 14, 1; 51-58
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Probabilistic concept of defining the situations possible to occur during operation of floating docks
Autorzy:
Girtler, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/260295.pdf
Data publikacji:
2005
Wydawca:
Politechnika Gdańska. Wydział Inżynierii Mechanicznej i Okrętownictwa
Tematy:
floating dock
safety
model
reliability
technical object
semi-Markov process
technical state
Opis:
In this paper possibility to assess safety of floating docks as a result of application of the theory of semi-Markov processes both in the phase of their designing and operating, is outlined. Formal description of the situations which may occur during service of floating docks both those intended for building and repairing the ships, was presented. The following situations were distinguished : normal, complicated, hazardous, emergency and disastrous. A model of changing the distinguished situations was proposed in the form of a semi - Markov process with discrete set of states, and continuous with time. The mentioned situations are values of the process. An operational safety measure for dock was formulated in the form of the probability of the event consisting in occurrence of normal or complicated situation. It was proved that assessment of probability of occurrence of particular situations is possible.
Źródło:
Polish Maritime Research; 2005, S 1; 34-38
1233-2585
Pojawia się w:
Polish Maritime Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The matter of decision-making control over operation processes of marine power plant systems with the use of their models in the form of semi-Markov decision-making processes
Autorzy:
Girtler, Jerzy
Rudnicki, Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1551829.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Politechnika Gdańska. Wydział Inżynierii Mechanicznej i Okrętownictwa
Tematy:
semi-Markov model
ship main engine
operation process
stochastic process
operational state
technical state
marine power plant equipment
Opis:
The article presents the possibility to control the real operation process of an arbitrary device installed in the marine power plant based on the four-state semi-Markov process, being the model of the process, which describes the transition process of operational states of the device (ek , k = 1, 2, 3, 4), and the transition process of its technical states (sl , l = 1, 2, 3). The operational states ek (k = 1, 2, 3, 4) have the following interpretation: e1 – active operation state resulting from the task performed by the device, e2 – state of ready-to-operate stop of the device, e3 – state of planned preventive service of the device, e4 – state of unplanned service of the device, forced by its damage. Whereas the interpretation of the technical states sl (l = 1, 2, 3) is as follows: s1 – state of full serviceability of the device, s2 – state of partial serviceability of the device, and s3 – state of unserviceability of the device. All these states are precisely defined for the ship main engine (SG). A hypothesis is proposed which justifies the use of this model to examine real state transitions in marine power plant device operation processes. The article shows the possibility to make operating decisions ensuring a rational course of the device operation process when the proposed model of this process and the dynamic programming method based on the Bellman’s principle of optimality are applied. The optimisation criterion adopted when making operating decisions is the expected profit to be gained as a result of functioning of the device in the time interval [τ0 , τm], being the sum of the expected profit gained in interval [τ0 , τ1 ] and to be gained in interval [τ1 , τm].
Źródło:
Polish Maritime Research; 2021, 1; 116-126
1233-2585
Pojawia się w:
Polish Maritime Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Reliability and maintainability characteristics in semi-Markov models
Autorzy:
Grabski, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069172.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
semi-Markov model
reliability characteristics
Opis:
The characteristics of semi-Markov process we can translate on the reliability characteristics in the semi-Markov reliability model. The cumulative distribution functions of the first passage time from the given states to subset of states, expected values and second moments corresponding to them which are considered in this paper allow to define reliability function of the system. The equations for many reliability characteristics and parameters are here presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 1; 79--86
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Semi-Markov model of multi-modal transport operation
Autorzy:
Grabski, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/242572.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
semi-Markov model
multistage transport operation
reliability function
mean time to failure
Opis:
Multi-modal transport means the transport of the objects through at least two different carriers of any combination of simple tasks of transport carriers (by truck, by train, by ship or by plane). A Semi-Markov (SM) model of multi-modal transport operation is presented in the article. The SM process is defined by the renewal kernel of that one. In our model, time to failure of the operation is represented by a random variable that denotes the first passage time from the given state to the subset of states. The duration of one operation cycle is a random variable representing the return time to the initial state. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to calculate characteristics and parameters of the transport operation model. The article presents the example of the transport operation final part of container with cargo from Warsaw to Stockholm, where from Warsaw to Gdynia, the container is transported by lorry, from Gdynia to Karlscorona by ferry and from Karlscorona to Stockholm by truck.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2017, 24, 4; 47-54
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Semi-Markov Reliability Model of System Composed of Main Subsystem, Cold Backup Component and Switch
Autorzy:
Grabski, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068910.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
semi-Markov model
reliability characteristics
Opis:
Probabilistic model of a system composed of a main component, an emergency backup component and the automatic switch are discussed in this paper. The reliability model is semi-Markov process describing evolution of the system. Conditional time to failure of the system is represented by a random variable denoting the first passage time of the process from the given state to the subset of states. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to evaluate the reliability function and some reliability characteristics. To calculate the reliability function and mean time to failure of the system we apply theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory concerning the conditional reliability functions.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 47--54
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
An importance measure for multi-component systems with Semi-Markov dynamics
Autorzy:
Hellmich, M.
Berg, H. P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069417.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
multi-component system
importance measure
Semi-Markov process
state space model
Opis:
We consider semi-Markov reliability models of multi-component systems with a discrete state space, general enough to include systems with maintenance or repair. We assume that for all system states the functioning or failure of each component is specified. In this setup we propose a component importance measure which is close in spirit to the classical steady state Barlow–Proschan importance measure for repairable binary coherent systems. We discuss our importance measure to some extent, highlighting the relation to the classical Barlow–Proschan measure, and present formulas expressing it in terms of quantities easily obtained from the building blocks of the semi-Markov process. Finally an example of a two-component cold standby system with maintenance and repair is presented which illustrates how our importance measure can be used in practical applications.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 1; 147--156
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068984.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 73--80
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system operating at under water Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068999.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 47--56
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068991.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 65--72
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards of port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068953.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 57--64
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068960.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
extreme weather hazard states
maritime ferry
Opis:
The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 41--46
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 33

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