Temat: semi-Markov model - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov Reliability Model of System Composed of Main Subsystem, Cold Backup Component and Switch
Autorzy:: Grabski, F.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068910.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
reliability characteristics
Opis:: Probabilistic model of a system composed of a main component, an emergency backup component and the automatic switch are discussed in this paper. The reliability model is semi-Markov process describing evolution of the system. Conditional time to failure of the system is represented by a random variable denoting the first passage time of the process from the given state to the subset of states. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to evaluate the reliability function and some reliability characteristics. To calculate the reliability function and mean time to failure of the system we apply theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory concerning the conditional reliability functions.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 47--54
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Reliability and maintainability characteristics in semi-Markov models
Autorzy:: Grabski, F.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069172.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
reliability characteristics
Opis:: The characteristics of semi-Markov process we can translate on the reliability characteristics in the semi-Markov reliability model. The cumulative distribution functions of the first passage time from the given states to subset of states, expected values and second moments corresponding to them which are considered in this paper allow to define reliability function of the system. The equations for many reliability characteristics and parameters are here presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 1; 79--86
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Modelling of transport system operational reliability a Markov approach
Autorzy:: Smolarek, Leszek
Ziemska, Monika
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/243419.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2019
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: transport
road transport
simulation
Markov model
semi-Markov model
Opis:: The workability of a transport system is associated with performance and operational reliability. Operational reliability provides a measure of the probability that a transport system will realize transport process as intended. Performance reliability is an adequacy measure of transport process realization under specific environmental and traffic conditions. Transport system can be modelled as repairable, multistate, non-homogenous rectangular or dendrite system. This article provides the Markov and semi Markov models for estimation of the operational and performance reliability of city transport system. The system is semi homogenous it means that serial subsystems have the same reliability function. The reliability of any serial subsystem is exponential. The distribution of the repair time is any probability distribution. In case where the probability distribution of the repair time is exponential, the Markov process is used to construct simulation model. The simulation model was applied at Microsoft Excel. Many stochastic models in engineering, logistic and even finance or insurance are setup in a spreadsheet for simulation. The semi Markov model of the multistate reliability of repaired system is applied to the street system. The embedded Markov chain was used to count stationary probabilities. The possibility of application of the results is illustrated by an example for the systems with rectangular or dendrite shaped accordingly, consist of three types of elements.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2019, 26, 4; 227-234
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: A computational tool for general model of industrial systems operations processes
Autorzy:: Lumanpauw, E.
Habibullah, M. S.
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska, J.
Xie, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069655.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: stochastic process
semi-Markov model
computational tool
reliability
Opis:: The complexities of real industrial systems operation processes require computational methods that can analyze the large data and evaluate the behaviours of these systems. The use of methods such as Bayesian Network, Formal Safety Assessment and Statistical-Model based method were discussed as possibilities. Of which, a computational tool, based on the Semi-Markov model, was developed. This tool was then applied to analyze the behaviour of the operation processes of the oil transportation system in Dębogórze, Poland. The analyses showed that the computational solutions generated compared favorably well with the analytical calculations, enabling possible extensions of the tool to include reliability and optimization evaluations to be explored.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2009, 2; 295--302
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Evaluation of the maintenance system readiness using the semi-Markov model taking into account hidden factors
Autorzy:: Kozłowski, Edward
Borucka, Anna
Oleszczuk, Piotr
Jałowiec, Tomasz
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27322964.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:: maintenance
semi-Markov model
hidden factors
system readiness
Opis:: Modelling the time that the system remains in a given state using classical distributions is not always possible. In many cases, empirical distributions are multimodal due to the influence of external, hidden factors and the selection of the best classical distributions may lead to erroneous results. In the article the method of diagnosis of influence of hidden factors into sojourn time of semi-Markov models was presented. In order to capture hidden factors, the authors proposed to model the distributions of the sojourn time with a mixture of distributions, which is a significant novelty in relation to the studies presented in the literature. Hidden factors directly affect the reliability of technical systems. Detecting the existence of these factors enables more accurate modeling of system readiness. Paying attention to irregularities caused by hidden factors makes it possible to reduce system maintenance costs. Such a system model providescomplete information and enables a reliable assessment of the system readiness and maintenance.
Źródło:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 4; art. no. 172857
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Method for assessment of transport means failures repairs
Autorzy:: Muślewski, Ł.
Woropay, M.
Neubauer, A.
Szubartowski, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/246101.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: transport system
operation process
semi-Markov model
efficiency
Opis:: An analysis of experimental tests and a literature survey of the issue revealed that the problems connected with assessment of costs and effectiveness of transport means repairs has a significant influence on their operation efficiency. Operating factors affecting the elements of technical objects cause negative changes in their features resulting in failures. The failures are referred to as events which significantly impair the vehicle operation efficiency, safety and reliability. On the basis of experimental tests concerning times of failures occurrence, it was found that the set of failures can be divided into subsets of primary and secondary failures. The tests results revealed that the most frequent cause of secondary failures occurrence was improperly performed primary repairs. Primary failures are not related to each other and they appear randomly. However, secondary failures are related to each other as their occurrence is conditioned by the primary failure and results from an inappropriate performance of the successive secondary failure. Basing on an analysis of the author 's own tests results, it was established that failures of transport means used in real transport systems are the effect of impact of various forcing factors. Some failures result from the natural wear of machine elements, whereas, other failures can be caused by inappropriate repair of the previous damage. Thus, there occur the so called secondary failures in a short period of time. In connection with this, high efficiency of the repair performance is of primary importance as it largely affects efficiency of transport tasks accomplishment. In this article, there has been discussed a method developed for assessment of repair costs connected with elimination of secondary failures and its influence on the studied transport system operation efficiency. Familiarity with available technologies for repairs of primary failures as well as with costs of work and costs connected with technical equipment of the repair stations enables specification of the lowest costs necessary for reduction of the number of secondary failures and the average time of their repairs.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2011, 18, 3; 299-307
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Availability of a technical object determined in a finite time interval
Autorzy:: Woropay, M.
Migawa, K.
Bojar, P.
Szubartowski, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/247070.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: transport system
operation process
semi-Markov model
availability
Opis:: In the article, a method for determination of the technical object availability, GO (r) in a finite time interval x, defined by the time of the transport task duration, has been discussed. All of the study has been presented on the example of a selected system of technical object operation - a system of transport means operation, in a big urban complex (more than 400 thousand inhabitants). Direct performance of the transport tasks in the analyzed system is the responsibility of an executive system consisting of elementary subsystems of the type operator- transport means. Availability of transport means elementary subsystems is crucial for efficient accomplishment of transport tasks. The presented method involves determination of the technical object availability, on the basis of a mathematical model of the operation process which takes place in the studied system, taking into consideration the technical object reliability characteristics. For this purpose, significant states of the transport means operation have been determined and they have been classified in terms of the availability criterion. Basing on this, an event and mathematical models of transport means operation process have been developed, with the semi Markov homogenous model serving as a mathematical model of the studied operation process. Also, values of the analyzed characteristics have been determined.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2011, 18, 4; 555-562
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov approach for reliability modelling of light utility vehicles
Autorzy:: Oszczypała, Mateusz
Ziółkowski, Jarosław
Małachowski, Jerzy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/24200838.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
reliability modelling
readiness
maintenance analysis
transportation system
Opis:: Vehicles are important elements of military transport systems. Semi-Markov processes, owing to the generic assumption form, are a useful tool for modelling the operation process of numerous technical objects and systems. The suggested approach is an extension of existing stochastic methods employed for a wide spectrum of technical objects; however, research on light utility vehicles complements the subject gap in the scientific literature. This research paper discusses the 3-state semi-Markov model implemented for the purposes of developing reliability analyses. Based on an empirical course of the operation process, the model was validated in terms of determining the conditional probabilities of interstate transitions for an embedded Markov chain, as well as parameters of time distribution functions. The Laplace transform was used to determine the reliability function, the failure probability density function, the failure intensity, and the expected time to failure. The readiness index values were calculated on ergodic probabilities.
Źródło:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 2; art. no. 161859
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards of port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068953.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 57--64
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068984.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 73--80
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 11.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068991.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 65--72
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 12.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats
Autorzy:: Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069003.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: In the paper, there are presented the methods for identification of the critical infrastructure operation process on the basis of statistical data coming from this process realizations related to the critical infrastructure operating environment threats. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the critical infrastructure operation process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional critical infrastructure operation process sojourn times at the particular operation states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process straying at the particular operation states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process transitions between the operation states. Moreover, there are given formulae for the estimator of unknown parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional sojourn times at the operation states. Namely, the parameters of the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull’s distribution and the chimney distribution are estimated using the statistical methods such as the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test is described and proposed to be applied to verifying the hypotheses about these distributions choice validity. The procedure of statistical data sets uniformity analysis based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed to be applied to the empirical conditional sojourn times at the operation states coming from different realizations of the same critical infrastructure operation process.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 155--168
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 13.

Tytuł:: Modelling the accident probability in large-scale, maritime transportation system
Autorzy:: Blokus-Roszkowska, A.
Montewka, J.
Smolarek, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069467.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2012
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: maritime transportation system
safety
collision probability
traffic simulation
semi-Markov model
Opis:: The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables, or they are too slow for effective analysis, due to computational complexity, not necessarily being backed-up with the complexity of the model itself. Thereby, this paper introduces a novel method evaluating the probability of ship-ship collision in the maritime transportation system focusing on the open sea collisions, applying the queuing theory in the simulation model. The model allows relatively fast prediction as it focuses on the specific events (e.g. accidents), instead of simulating the whole traffic. To support this hypothesis a case study is presented focusing on a selected element of transportation system in operation.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 2; 237--244
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 14.

Tytuł:: Prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:: Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068988.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of prediction of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 143--148
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 15.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system operating at under water Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068999.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 47--56
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 16.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov-based approach for the analysis of open tandem networks with blocking and truncation
Autorzy:: Oniszczuk, W.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/907864.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Oficyna Wydawnicza
Tematy:: sieć komputerowa
blokowanie
obcinanie
model semi-Markova
two-node network
blocking
truncation
semi-Markov model
Markov exact algorithm
Opis:: This paper describes an analytical study of open two-node (tandem) network models with blocking and truncation. The study is based on semi-Markov process theory, and network models assume that multiple servers serve each queue. Tasks arrive at the tandem in a Poisson fashion at the rate [...], and the service times at the first and the second node are nonexponentially distributed with means sA and sB, respectively. Both nodes have buffers with finite capacities. In this type of network, if the second buffer is full, the accumulation of new tasks by the second node is temporarily suspended (a blocking factor) and tasks must wait on the first node until the transmission process is resumed. All new tasks that find the first buffer full are turned away and are lost (a truncation factor). First, a Markov model of the tandem is investigated. Here, a twodimensional state graph is constructed and a set of steady-state equations is created. These equations allow calculating state probabilities for each graph state. A special algorithm for transforming the Markov model into a semi-Markov process is presented. This approach allows calculating steady-state probabilities in the semi-Markov model. Next, the algorithms for calculating the main measures of effectiveness in the semi-Markov model are presented. In the numerical part of this paper, the author investigates examples of several semi-Markov models. Finally, the results of calculating both the main measures of effectiveness and quality of service (QoS) parameters are presented.
Źródło:: International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science; 2009, 19, 1; 151-163
1641-876X
2083-8492
Pojawia się w:: International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 17.

Tytuł:: Methods and algorithms for evaluating unknown parameters of operation processes of complex technical systems
Autorzy:: Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069646.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: system operation process
semi-Markov model
sojourn time
distribution
estimation
maritime transport
Opis:: The paper objectives are to present the methods and tools useful in the statistical identifying unknown parameters of the operation models of complex technical systems and to apply them in the maritime industry. There are presented statistical methods of determining unknown parameters of the semi-markov model of the complex technical system operation processes. There is also presented the chi-square goodness-of-fit test applied to verifying the distributions of the system operation process conditional sojourn times in the particular operation states. Applications of these tools to identifying and predicting the operation characteristics of a ferry operating at the Baltic Sea waters are presented as well.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2009, 2; 211--222
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 18.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov model of multi-modal transport operation
Autorzy:: Grabski, F.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/242572.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
multistage transport operation
reliability function
mean time to failure
Opis:: Multi-modal transport means the transport of the objects through at least two different carriers of any combination of simple tasks of transport carriers (by truck, by train, by ship or by plane). A Semi-Markov (SM) model of multi-modal transport operation is presented in the article. The SM process is defined by the renewal kernel of that one. In our model, time to failure of the operation is represented by a random variable that denotes the first passage time from the given state to the subset of states. The duration of one operation cycle is a random variable representing the return time to the initial state. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to calculate characteristics and parameters of the transport operation model. The article presents the example of the transport operation final part of container with cargo from Warsaw to Stockholm, where from Warsaw to Gdynia, the container is transported by lorry, from Gdynia to Karlscorona by ferry and from Karlscorona to Stockholm by truck.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2017, 24, 4; 47-54
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Tytuł:: Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068960.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
extreme weather hazard states
maritime ferry
Opis:: The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 41--46
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 20.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov model of the operation process included in an utilization subsystem of the transport system
Semimarkowski model procesu eksploatacji realizowanego w podsystemie wykonawczym systemu transportowego
Autorzy:: Migawa, K.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/263575.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz. Przemysłowy Instytut Motoryzacji
Tematy:: komunikacja miejska
model semimarkowski
podsystem wykonawczy
municipal transport
semi-Markov model
transport system
utilization subsystem
Opis:: Based on the identification of the detailed subsystem in a real urban transport system and the process of transport means operation utilized therein, a model of such process was built. For this purpose, crucial states of operation process utilized in a detailed subsystem were determined as well as possible transfers between those states. Based on this, an event-based model of the operation process of transport means included in the utilization subsystem was built, assuming that its model is the homogenous semi-Markov process. For operation data obtained after research conducted in a real transport system, values of unconditional periods of duration of process states, values of stationary distribution included in the Markov chain as well as values of probabilities of limit distribution of the semi-Markov process were determined. Based on this, an analysis of the transport means operation system in question was performed. This consideration in its entirety was presented based on the example of a chosen real transport means system - municipal bus transport system in a chosen urban complex. The semi-Markov model of transport means operation process utilized in the detailed subsystem presented in the article is the consecutive stage of the creation of the resultant model of operation process for the whole transport system. The resultant model will be a part of the decision-making model of shaping and evaluating the availability of transport system established as a part of a larger project.
Na podstawie identyfikacji podsystemu wykonawczego w rzeczywistym systemie komunikacji miejskiej i realizowanego w nim procesu eksploatacji środków transportu został zbudowany model tego procesu. W tym celu wyznaczono istotne stany procesu eksploatacji realizowanego w podsystemie wykonawczym oraz możliwe przejścia między wyróżnionymi stanami. Na tej podstawie zbudowano zdarzeniowy model procesu eksploatacji środków transportu realizowanego w podsystemie wykonawczym, a następnie matematyczny model tego procesu, zakładając, że jego modelem jest jednorodny proces semi-Markowa. Dla danych eksploatacyjnych, uzyskanych z badań przeprowadzonych w rzeczywistym systemie transportowym, wyznaczono wartości bezwarunkowych czasów trwania stanów procesu, wartości rozkładu stacjonarnego włożonego w proces łańcucha Markowa oraz wartości prawdopodobieństw rozkładu granicznego procesu semi-Markowa. Na tej podstawie dokonano analizy rozpatrywanego procesu eksploatacji środków transportu. Całość rozważań przedstawiono na przykładzie wybranego rzeczywistego systemu eksploatacji środków transportu - systemu autobusowej komunikacji miejskiej w wybranej aglomeracji. Prezentowany w artykule semimarkowski model procesu eksploatacji środków transportu realizowanego w podsystemie wykonawczym, jest kolejnym etapem budowy modelu wynikowego procesu eksploatacji dla całego systemu transportowego. Model wynikowy stanowić będzie część składową, opracowywanego w ramach szerszego projektu, decyzyjnego modelu kształtowania i oceny gotowości systemu transportowego.
Źródło:: Archiwum Motoryzacji; 2010, 2; 87-97
1234-754X
2084-476X
Pojawia się w:: Archiwum Motoryzacji
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 21.

Tytuł:: Forecasting the readiness of special vehicles using the semi-Markov model
Prognozowanie gotowości pojazdów specjalnych na podstawie modelu semi-Markowa
Autorzy:: Borucka, Anna
Niewczas, Andrzej
Hasilova, Kamila
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1365303.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2019
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:: vehicle exploitation system
special vehicles
readiness
semi-Markov model
system eksploatacji samochodów
pojazdy specjalne
gotowość
model semi-Markowa
Opis:: The vehicle exploitation system, consisting of statistically identical objects that perform intervention tasks, not subject to systematic changes, can be modelled as a stationary stochastic process. Such a model allows to determine the probabilistic indicators of current and boundary readiness of the system. This article presents the use of the semi-Markov process, based on three operating states: operation, ready-to-be-used and repair, to study a transport system consisting of special vehicles. On the example of a sample consisting of police patrol cars, experimental studies of the intensity of fleet utilization, time of failure-free operation of vehicles were carried out, and it was demonstrated that the examined transport system is characterized by a satisfactory, stationary readiness coefficient. The developmental possibilities of the presented modelling method were emphasized.
System eksploatacji samochodów, które realizują zadania interwencyjne, niepodlegający systematycznym zmianom może być modelowany jako stacjonarny proces stochastyczny. Taki model pozwala wyznaczyć probabilistyczne wskaźniki bieżącej i granicznej gotowości systemu. W niniejszym artykule, do modelowania systemu eksploatacji pojazdów specjalnych, wykorzystano proces semi-Markowa, oparty na trzech stanach eksploatacyjnych: użytkowania, postoju użytkowego i naprawy. Na przykładzie próby radiowozów policyjnych przeprowadzono doświadczalne badania intensywności użytkowania floty, czasu bezawaryjnej pracy pojazdów a także wykazano, że badany system transportowy charakteryzuje się zadowalającym, stacjonarnym współczynnikiem gotowości. Podkreślono rozwojowe możliwości przedstawionej metody modelowania.
Źródło:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2019, 21, 4; 662-669
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 22.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov Model of the Operation and Maintenance Process of City Buses
Semimarkowski model procesu eksploatacji i obsługi autobusów miejskich
Autorzy:: Szubartowski, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/223492.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2013
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:: public transport bus
maintenance process
semi-Markov model
autobusowa komunikacja miejska
eksploatacja autobusów
model semi-Markowa
ocena gotowości systemu
Opis:: This paper presents a model of the operation and maintenance process of the technical objects within the urban transport bus system. All the investigations have been presented on the basis of the selected real operation and maintenance system of the city buses. Basing on the identification of the system under investigation and on the process being realized within it a model of the operation and maintenance process of the city buses was built, assuming that the model of this process is the homogeneous semi-Markov process X(t). For this purpose, crucial states of operation and maintenance process in selected transport system were determined as well as possible transfers between those states. Based on this, an event-based model of the operation and maintenance process of the city buses was built, assuming that its model is the homogenous semi-Markov process. For operation data obtained after research conducted in an authentic transport system, values of unconditional periods of duration of process states, values of stationary distribution included in the Markov chain as well as values of probabilities of limit distribution of the semi-Markov process were determined. Based on this, an analysis of the city buses operation and maintenance process in question was performed. Presented in this article the semi-Markov model operation and maintenance process of city buses is the first stage of the creation of the availability model of the urban transport bus system.
W artykule przedstawiono model procesu eksploatacji obiektów technicznych w systemie autobusowej komunikacji miejskiej. Całość rozważań przedstawiono na przykładzie wybranego rzeczywistego systemu eksploatacji autobusów miejskich. Na podstawie identyfikacji badanego systemu i realizowanego w nim procesu zbudowano model procesu eksploatacji autobusów miejskich, zakładając, że modelem tego procesu jest jednorodny proces semi-Markowa X(t). W tym celu wyznaczono istotne stany procesu eksploatacji realizowanego w wybranym systemie transportowym oraz możliwe przejścia między wyróżnionymi stanami. Na tej podstawie zbudowano zdarzeniowy model procesu eksploatacji autobusów miejskich, a następnie matematyczny model tego procesu, zakładając, że jego modelem jest jednorodny proces semi-Markowa. Dla danych eksploatacyjnych, uzyskanych z badań przeprowadzonych w rzeczywistym systemie transportowym, wyznaczono wartości bezwarunkowych czasów trwania stanów procesu, wartości rozkładu stacjonarnego włożonego w proces łańcucha Markowa oraz wartości prawdopodobieństw rozkładu granicznego procesu semi-Markowa. Na tej podstawie dokonano analizy rozpatrywanego procesu eksploatacji autobusów miejskich. Prezentowany w artykule semimarkowski model procesu eksploatacji autobusów miejskich jest pierwszym etapem budowy modelu oceny gotowości systemu autobusowej komunikacji miejskiej.
Źródło:: Archives of Transport; 2013, 25-26, 1-2; 109-116
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:: Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 23.

Tytuł:: Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068975.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
extreme weather hazard states
port oil transportation syste
Opis:: The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To construct this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. Preliminary applications of the proposed model to the climate-weather change process for the port oil transportation system operation area are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 31--40
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 24.

Tytuł:: Availability control for means of transport in decisive semi-Markov models of exploitation process
Sterowanie gotowością środków transportu w decyzyjnych semi-markowskich modelach procesu eksploatacji
Autorzy:: Migawa, K.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/223801.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2012
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:: means of transport
ready means of transport
semi-Markov model
środki transportu
gotowość środków transportu
eksploatacja obiektów technicznych
model semi-Markowa
Opis:: The issues presented in this research paper refer to problems connected with the control process for exploitation implemented in the complex systems of exploitation for technical objects. The article presents the description of the method concerning the control availability for technical objects (means of transport) on the basis of the mathematical model of the exploitation process with the implementation of the decisive processes by semi-Markov. The presented method means focused on the preparing the decisive for the exploitation process for technical objects (semi-Markov model) and after that specifying the best control strategy (optimal strategy) from among possible decisive variants in accordance with the approved criterion (criteria) of the activity evaluation of the system of exploitation for technical objects. In the presented method specifying the optimal strategy for control availability in the technical objects means a choice of a sequence of control decisions made in individual states of modelled exploitation process for which the function being a criterion of evaluation reaches the extreme value. In order to choose the optimal control strategy the implementation of the genetic algorithm was chosen. The opinions were presented on the example of the exploitation process of the means of transport implemented in the real system of the bus municipal transport. The model of the exploitation process for the means of transports was prepared on the basis of the results implemented in the real transport system. The mathematical model of the exploitation process was built taking into consideration the fact that the model of the process constitutes the homogenous semi-Markov process.
Zagadnienia przedstawione w pracy dotyczą problemów związanych ze sterowaniem procesem eksploatacji realizowanym w złożonych systemach eksploatacji obiektów technicznych. W artykule przedstawiono opis metody sterowania gotowością obiektów technicznych (środków transportu), na podstawie matematycznego modelu procesu eksploatacji z zastosowaniem decyzyjnych procesów semi-Markowa. Przedstawiona metoda polega na opracowaniu decyzyjnego modelu procesu eksploatacji obiektów technicznych (modelu semi-Markowa), a następnie wyznaczeniu najlepszej strategii sterowania (strategii optymalnej) spośród możliwych wariantów decyzyjnych, ze względu na przyjęte kryterium (kryteria) oceny działania systemu eksploatacji obiektów technicznych. W opracowanej metodzie wyznaczenie strategii optymalnej sterowania gotowością obiektów technicznych oznacza wybór ciągu decyzji sterujących, podejmowanych w poszczególnych stanach modelowanego procesu eksploatacji, dla którego funkcja stanowiąca kryterium oceny osiąga wartość ekstremalną. Do wyboru optymalnej strategii sterującej zaproponowano zastosowanie algorytmu genetycznego. Całość rozważań przedstawiono na przykładzie procesu eksploatacji środków transportu, realizowanego w rzeczywistym systemie autobusowego transportu miejskiego. Model procesu eksploatacji środków transportu opracowano na podstawie wyników badań zrealizowanych w wybranym rzeczywistym systemie transportowym. Matematyczny model procesu eksploatacji został zbudowany, przy przyjęciu założenia, że modelem tego procesu jest jednorodny proces semi-Markowa.
Źródło:: Archives of Transport; 2012, 24, 4; 497-508
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:: Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 25.

Tytuł:: The matter of decision-making control over operation processes of marine power plant systems with the use of their models in the form of semi-Markov decision-making processes
Autorzy:: Girtler, Jerzy
Rudnicki, Jacek
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1551829.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2021
Wydawca:: Politechnika Gdańska. Wydział Inżynierii Mechanicznej i Okrętownictwa
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
ship main engine
operation process
stochastic process
operational state
technical state
marine power plant equipment
Opis:: The article presents the possibility to control the real operation process of an arbitrary device installed in the marine power plant based on the four-state semi-Markov process, being the model of the process, which describes the transition process of operational states of the device (ek , k = 1, 2, 3, 4), and the transition process of its technical states (sl , l = 1, 2, 3). The operational states ek (k = 1, 2, 3, 4) have the following interpretation: e1 – active operation state resulting from the task performed by the device, e2 – state of ready-to-operate stop of the device, e3 – state of planned preventive service of the device, e4 – state of unplanned service of the device, forced by its damage. Whereas the interpretation of the technical states sl (l = 1, 2, 3) is as follows: s1 – state of full serviceability of the device, s2 – state of partial serviceability of the device, and s3 – state of unserviceability of the device. All these states are precisely defined for the ship main engine (SG). A hypothesis is proposed which justifies the use of this model to examine real state transitions in marine power plant device operation processes. The article shows the possibility to make operating decisions ensuring a rational course of the device operation process when the proposed model of this process and the dynamic programming method based on the Bellman’s principle of optimality are applied. The optimisation criterion adopted when making operating decisions is the expected profit to be gained as a result of functioning of the device in the time interval [τ0 , τm], being the sum of the expected profit gained in interval [τ0 , τ1 ] and to be gained in interval [τ1 , τm].
Źródło:: Polish Maritime Research; 2021, 1; 116-126
1233-2585
Pojawia się w:: Polish Maritime Research
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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