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    Tytuł:
    Analysis of trend rainfall: Case of North-Eastern Algeria
    Analiza tendencji opadów – przykład północno-wschodniej Algierii
    Autorzy:
    Mrad, D.
    Djebbar, Y.
    Hammar, Y.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/293235.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    Mann–Kendall test
    North-Eastern Algeria
    rainfall
    trend
    opad
    północno-wschodnia Algieria
    test Manna–Kendalla
    zmiana klimatu
    Opis:
    The climatic change is a reality largely recognized today in the scientific community. Nevertheless, its impact on precipitation, especially on annual, monthly and seasonally rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions is not yet certain. Indeed, very few studies have dealt with this matter in Algeria. In this context to examine spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall an attempt has been made using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. Trends and magnitude estimate of change in rainfall series were detected by Mann–Kendall tests and Sen's test slope, has been applied to the data registered of 35 stations in the watershed Constantinois Seybouse Mellegue (CSM) North-Eastern Algeria over a period of 43 years (1969–2012). Results from spatial plot of annual rainfall showed that the rainfall increases with altitude, but is higher for the stations exposed to moist winds. It also increases from east to west and conversely decreases as one moves away from the coast to the south. From statistical method showed that there are increase trends at 95% confidence at annual scale in some rainfall stations with high altitude and coastal stations during winter season.
    Zmiana klimatu jest faktem powszechnie uznawanym obecnie przez społeczność naukową. Mimo to jej wpływ na opady, szczególnie na roczny, miesięczny i sezonowy opad na obszarach klimatu suchego i półsuchego, nie jest jeszcze dobrze rozpoznany. Do tej pory tylko kilka badań w Algierii dotyczyło tej kwestii. W związku z tym podjęto próbę zbadania przestrzennego rozmieszczenia rocznych i sezonowych opadów za pomocą metody odwrotnej odległości (IDW – ang. inverse distance weighting). Trendy i wielkość oszacowanych zmian w seriach opadów analizowano testem Manna–Kendalla, a test nachylenia Sena użyto do danych zgromadzonych w 35 posterunkach opadowych w zlewni Constantinois Seybouse Mellegue (CSM) w północno- -wschodniej Algierii w ciągu 43 lat (1969–2012). Wyniki analiz przestrzennego rozkładu rocznych opadów wykazały, że opad rośnie wraz z wysokością nad poziomem morza i jest większy w stanowiskach eksponowanych na wilgotne wiatry. Opad rośnie ze wschodu na zachód, a maleje od wybrzeża w kierunku południowym. Metody statystyczne ujawniły rosnący (przedział ufności 95%) trend opadów w niektórych posterunkach na dużych wysokościach i w posterunkach przybrzeżnych w okresie zimy.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Water and Land Development; 2018, 36; 105-115
    1429-7426
    2083-4535
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Water and Land Development
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Impact of rainfall trends on flood in Agnéby watershed
    Autorzy:
    Konin, N’Da Jean Claude
    N’go, Yao Alexis
    Soro, Gneneyougo Emile
    Goula, Bi Tié Albert
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2073726.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
    Tematy:
    Agnéby watershed
    flood
    hydro-rainfall hazard
    Ivory Coast
    rainfall trend
    Opis:
    The aim of this study is to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of hydro-rainfall variables in the Agnéby watershed in a disturbed climatic context. Rainfall data from the stations of Arrah, Bongouanou, M’Batto, Akoupé, Céchi, Agboville, Adzopé, Sikensi, Abidjan Airport and Dabou as well as hydrometric data from the stations of Agboville, Offoliguié, M’Bessé and Guessiguié were used. The methodological approach is based on the application of independence and trend tests and spatio-temporal analysis of daily rainfall maxima, duration of consecutive rainfall events, number of rainfall events above a threshold and daily flow maxima. The hypothesis of independence justified the relevance of the choice of variables. The trend test showed the dynamic upward evolution of extreme rainfall and the decrease in the duration of consecutive rainy episodes, in the number of rainy episodes and in the flows feeding the main watercourse. Moreover, spatial analysis of daily maximum rainfall amounts above 120 mm, consecutive maximum rainfall amounts above 160 mm and Gumbel rainfall amounts above 190 mm indicated heavy rainfall in the southern part of the watershed. However, a decrease in rainfall is recorded in the areas covered by the stations of Arrah, Bongouanou, M’Batto, Ce chi and Akoupé. An increase in the flood flow calculated from the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) between 76.60 m3∙s-1 and 225.70 m3∙s-1 is presented in the main river. The spatio-temporal variation in annual rainfall heights showed a high rainfall in the southern part of the watershed with a decrease in rainfall over the decades (1976-1985 and 1996-2005) followed by an increase over the decades (1986-1995 and 2006-2015). Despite the general decrease in rainfall, extreme rainfall has become frequent, causing flooding in the watershed.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Water and Land Development; 2022, 52; 9--20
    1429-7426
    2083-4535
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Water and Land Development
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Maximum daily rainfall analysis at selected meteorological stations in the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin
    Autorzy:
    Wdowikowski, M.
    Kaźmierczak, B.
    Ledvinka, O.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108530.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    trend analysis
    Mann-Kendall test
    meteorological data
    maximum rainfall
    GED
    Lusatian Neisse
    IMWM-NRI
    probabilistic distribution
    Opis:
    The scope of this study was to assess the usefulness of top probability distributions to describe maximum rainfall data in the Lusatian Neisse River basin, based on eight IMWM-NRI meteorological stations. The research material was composed of 50-year precipitation series of daily totals from 1961 to 2010. Misssing measurement data were estimated using a weighted average method. Homogeneity for refilled data were investigated by precipitation double aggregation curve. Correlation between the measurement data varied from 96 to 99% and did not indicate a violation of the homogeneity of rainfall data series. Variability of recorded daily precipitation maxima were studied by linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests. Long-term period changes at maximum rainfalls for four stations remained statistically insignificant, and for the other four were significant, although the structure of maximums was relatively similar. To describe the measured data, there were used the Fréchet, Gamma, Generalized Exponential Distribution (GED), Gumbel, Log-normal and Weibull distributions. Particular distribution parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The conformity of the analyzed theoretical distributions with measured data was inspected using the Schwarz Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and also by the relative residual mean square error (RRMSE). Among others, the Gamma, GED, and Weibull distributions fulfilled the compliance criterion for each meteorological station respectively. The BIC criterion indicated GED as the best; however differences were minor between GED on the one hand and the Gamma and Weibull distributions on the other. After conducting the RRMSE analysis it was found that, in comparison to the other distributions, GED best describes the measured maximum rainfall data.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2016, 4, 1; 53-63
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Rainfall Variability and Drought Occurrences in the Batticaloa District, Sri Lanka
    Autorzy:
    Rajendram, K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1839767.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
    Tematy:
    Rainfall Variability
    Strandred Deviation
    Drought Occurrence
    Rainfall Trend
    Opis:
    Due to recent climate changes and monsoon variability, the amount, pattern, and intensity of rainfall are significantly changing in many Asian countries. This paper attempts to study the annual and seasonal rainfall patterns and their variability, and the occurrence of droughts. Monthly rainfall data have been collected from the Department of Meteorology, Colombo, from 1871-2020 for Batticaloa station. The Standard Deviation, Coefficient of Variation least-square trend had computed for annual and seasonal rainfall to study the rainfall variability as whole and different epochs. To study the drought scenario Standardized Precipitation Index had computed, and then the drought was categorized based on the SPI criteria, and the drought severity had distinguished. Spatial rainfall distribution maps had prepared using Arc GIS 10.4 software. The Standard Deviation and the Coefficient of annual rainfall variation are 423.9 and 24.8%, respectively. The epochal variability results reveal that the variability of rainfall is higher in 1961-1990 (CV: 28.9%), which indicates the low dependability, while variability is lower in the epochs of 1931-1960 (CV: 17.7%) and 1871-1900 and (19.6%) respectively. The long-term rainfall trend (1871-2020) results reveal the increasing trend and its r2 = 0.0271. However, only the epoch 1961-1990 shows a downward trend with r2 = 0.2398. The rainfall anomaly results reveal the extreme drought had occurred in 1968 and 1889. The severe droughts had occurred in 1998, 1983, 1981, 1980, 1909, and 1890. Out of 150 years of data periods, 25 years had been identified as drought years. The probability of drought occurrence is P = 0.167. Terefore once in five to six years, drought could have occurred.
    Źródło:
    World News of Natural Sciences; 2021, 39; 30-45
    2543-5426
    Pojawia się w:
    World News of Natural Sciences
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends in Chhattisgarh State, Central India over the last 115 years
    Przestrzenna i czasowa analiza tendencji zmian opadów w stanie Chhattisgarh w środkowych Indiach w ciągu ostatnich 115 lat
    Autorzy:
    Nema, M. K.
    Khare, D.
    Adamowski, J.
    Chandniha, S. K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/292272.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
    Tematy:
    change point
    gridded data
    modified Mann–Kendall test
    rainfall variability
    trend analysis
    analiza trendu
    dane gridowe
    punkt zwrotny
    zmienność opadów
    zmodyfikowany test Manna– Kendalla
    Opis:
    A quantitative and qualitative understanding of the anticipated climate-change-driven multi-scale spatio- -temporal shifts in precipitation and attendant river flows is crucial to the development of water resources management approaches capable of sustaining and even improving the ecological and socioeconomic viability of rainfed agricultural regions. A set of homogeneity tests for change point detection, non-parametric trend tests, and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to long-term gridded rainfall records of 27 newly formed districts in Chhattisgarh State, India. Illustrating the impacts of climate change, an analysis of spatial variability, multitemporal (monthly, seasonal, annual) trends and inter-annual variations in rainfall over the last 115 years (1901– 2015 mean 1360 mm·y–1) showed an overall decline in rainfall, with 1961 being a change point year (i.e., shift from rising to declining trend) for most districts in Chhattisgarh. Spatio-temporal variations in rainfall within the state of Chhattisgarh showed a coefficient of variation of 19.77%. Strong inter-annual and seasonal variability in regional rainfall were noted. These rainfall trend analyses may help predict future climate scenarios and thereby allow planning of effective and sustainable water resources management for the region.
    Ilościowe i jakościowe rozpoznanie przewidywanych wielowymiarowych zmian opadów i towarzyszących im przepływów w rzekach spowodowanych zmianami klimatu jest decydujące dla rozwoju metod zarządzania zasobami wodnymi zdolnych utrzymać lub nawet usprawnić rentowność obszarów rolniczych zasilanych opadami. Zastosowano kilka testów jednorodności do wykrycia punktu zwrotnego, nieparametryczne testy trendu i estymator nachylenia Sena do analizy wieloletnich danych o opadach w 27 nowo utworzonych dystryktach stanu Chhattisgarh w Indiach. Ilustrując wpływ zmian klimatu, wyniki analizy przestrzennej zmienności, miesięcznych, sezonowych i rocznych trendów oraz zmienności między latami (1901–2015, średni opad 1360 mm·r–1) wykazały ogólne zmniejszenie ilości opadów w większości dystryktów stanu Chhattisgarh. Rok 1961 był punktem zwrotnym między rosnącym a malejącym trendem opadów. Współczynnik zmienności przestrzennej i czasowej opadów w stanie Chhattisgarh wynosił 19,77%. Zanotowano znaczną zmienność opadów między poszczególnymi latami i porami roku. Takie analizy trendów mogą być przydatne w przewidywaniu przyszłych scenariuszy klimatycznych, a w związku z tym – umożliwić wydajne i zrównoważone zarządzanie zasobami wodnymi regionu.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Water and Land Development; 2018, 36; 117-128
    1429-7426
    2083-4535
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Water and Land Development
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Statistical assessment of rainfall variability and trends in northeastern Algeria
    Statystyczna ocena zmienności i trendów opadu w północnowschodniej Algierii
    Autorzy:
    Merniz, Noureddine
    Tahar, Ali
    Benmehaia, Amine M.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/293385.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    Mann-Kendall test
    northeastern Algeria
    precipitation
    rainfall trend
    opad
    północnowschodnia Algieria
    test Manna–Kendalla
    trend
    zmiana klimatu
    Opis:
    In the present study, time series for annual, monthly rainfall and number of rainy days per year were analysed to quantify spatial variability and temporal trends for 22 rainfall stations distributed in northeastern Algeria for the period 1978– 2010. The Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to assess the significance and magnitude of the trend. The results showed that precipitation decreases spatially from North to South and from East to West. The application of the Mann–Kendall test (for 0.05% threshold) to the time series data showed that for annual precipitation, no station showed statistically significant trends, unlike the number of rainy days, where there was a significant negative trend in four stations (Jijel, Constantine, Oum El Bouaghi and Tébessa). For the monthly time series, significant positive trends were observed during the months of September in the coastal stations and July for the plateaus and southern Saharan Atlas stations, while significant negative trends were recorded during the months of February and March for the stations of the extreme East in the study area. These results revealed that for the period analysed, there was no significant climate change in northeastern Algeria but there is a seasonal delay having important agroecological implications.
    W przedstawionych badaniach analizowano serie rocznych i miesięcznych opadów oraz liczbę dni z deszczem w ciągu roku celem ustalenia przestrzennej zmienności i czasowych trendów w latach 1978–2010 dla 22 stacji pomiarowych rozmieszczonych w północnowschodniej Algierii. Wykorzystano test Manna–Kendalla i estymator Sena do oceny istotności i rozmiaru trendu. Wyniki dowodzą, że opady malały z północy na południe i ze wschodu na zachód. Zastosowanie testu Manna–Kendalla (p < 0,05) do serii danych pomiarowych nie wykazały w żadnej stacji statystycznie istotnych trendów dla rocznych opadów w przeciwieństwie do liczby dni z opadem, które cechował istotny negatywny trend w czterech stacjach pomiarowych (Jijel, Constantine, Oum El Bouaghi i Tébessa). Analiza serii miesięcznych opadów dowiodła występowania dodatniego trendu w odniesieniu do sierpnia w stacjach na wybrzeżu i w odniesieniu do lipca w stacjach na płaskowyżach i w południowym Atlasie Saharyjskim. Istotny trend ujemny uzyskano w przypadku lutego i marca w stacjach na wschodzie badanego obszaru. Wyniki dowodzą, że w analizowanym okresie nie stwierdzono istotnych zmian klimatu w północnowschodniej Algierii, z wyjątkiem sezonowych opóźnień, które wywołują ważne skutki agro-ekologiczne.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Water and Land Development; 2019, 40; 87-96
    1429-7426
    2083-4535
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Water and Land Development
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Temperature and Rainfall Trend in Alaknanda Valley Srinagar Garhwal, Uttarakhand, India
    Autorzy:
    Negi, R. S.
    Sagar Gautam, Alok Sagar
    Singh, Santosh
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1164126.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
    Tematy:
    Climate Change
    Meteorological data
    Rainfall
    Temperature
    Trend
    Opis:
    The rainfall and temperatures are the most important parameters among the atmosphere as these parameters decide the ecological situation of the specific area, which affects the agricultural productivity. The temperature, and rainfall trends are analysed for meteorological data of Automatic Weather Station (AWS), was installed September 2009 with 22 meteorological parameters in the Department of Rural Technology, HNB Garhwal, University, Srinagar Garhwal, and Uttarakhand. In the study assess the seven-year change in temperature and rainfall has been examination by linear tread analysis. It is observed that in velley of Srinagar Garhwal, Uttarakhand, coefficient of variation for mean temperature for Srinagar Garhwal Valley is highest in the month of February and lowest in the month of August. This means that mean temperature is most stable in the month of August and total monthly rainfall observed highest in the month of November and minimum for the month of July. This shows that rainfall is more stable in the month of July and is more variable in the month of November for the Valley.
    Źródło:
    World Scientific News; 2018, 108; 207-214
    2392-2192
    Pojawia się w:
    World Scientific News
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Trend analysis of rainfall in Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India
    Autorzy:
    Kumar, Sandeep
    Gill, G. S.
    Santosh, Santosh
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1193980.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
    Tematy:
    Himachal Pradesh
    Mann-Kendall test
    Rainfall
    Regression
    Satluj River Basin
    Trend analysis
    Opis:
    attention recently, especially in connection with climate change. The changing pattern of rainfall deserves urgent and systematic attention for planning, development, utilisation and management of water resources. The daily data on variable were converted to monthly and then computed to seasonal and annual series. Annual rainfall (mm/yr) was calculated as the sum of monthly values. The missing values in the data were computed by using average method. The records of rainfall were subjected to trend analysis by using both non-parametric (Mann-Kendall test) and parametric (linear regression analysis) procedures. For better understanding of the observed trends, data were computed into standardised precipitation indices (SPI). These standardised data series were plotted against time and the linear trends observed were represented graphically. Trend analysis results of rainfall show that out of 15 annual trends 6 (40%) are increasing and 9 (60%) are decreasing in nature where 1 (6.6%) is statistically significant (increasing) and 2 (13.3%) are statistically significant (decreasing) at 95% confidence level. Similarly, the changes were investigated for the four seasons: winter (December-March), pre-monsoon (April-June), monsoon (July-September) and post-monsoon (October-November). The analysis of rainfall, annual as well as seasonal, of different gauge stations in Satluj River Basin showed a large variability in the trends and magnitudes from 1984 to 2010. The rainfall shows great temporal and spatial variations, unequal seasonal distribution with frequent departures from normal. Majority of gauge stations have experienced decreasing trends, both on seasonal and annual scales. Some were statistically significant at 95% confidence level. The sensitivity of rainfall variations provides important insight regarding the responses and vulnerability of different areas to climate change. It will further strengthen the formulation of future strategy for management of water resources.
    Źródło:
    World Scientific News; 2015, 14; 1-55
    2392-2192
    Pojawia się w:
    World Scientific News
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
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