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    Wyświetlanie 1-6 z 6
    Tytuł:
    Macroeconomic stability as the condition for Bulgaria to join the euro area
    Autorzy:
    Moździerz, Anna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22446419.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    macroeconomic equilibrium
    macroeconomic stability
    monetary union
    convergence criteria
    Opis:
    Research background: The subject of research is the macroeconomic situation of Bulgaria in the context of the country's preparations for joining the euro area. In 2018, the Bulgarian government approved a plan of preparations covering the period until the end of June 2019, which assumes that the country will join the ERM II mechanism in July 2019, and the euro area on 1 January 2022. Bulgaria meets four nominal convergence criteria regarding inflation, long-term interest rate, budget deficit and public debt. The national currency is pegged to the euro under the currency board arrangement. Despite this, the implementation of this optimistic scenario may be difficult because since the 2007 crisis, the European institutions pay more attention to macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of convergence. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify the factors destabilising macroeconomic equilibrium in Bulgaria, which are a potential obstacle to the adoption of the euro by Bulgaria on schedule. Methods: The research was based on the changes in selected macroeconomic indicators, as well as on the method used by the European Commission to detect macroeconomic imbalances. The observation and analysis covered the 2007?2018 period.  Findings & Value added: The research results indicate that the low level of socio-economic convergence of Bulgaria and macroeconomic imbalances may delay its membership in the monetary union. Therefore, while respecting the country's aspirations to join the euro area, one cannot ignore the risk of another destabilisation of the euro area. 
    Źródło:
    Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2019, 14, 2; 295-315
    1689-765X
    2353-3293
    Pojawia się w:
    Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Czy trwałe wypełnianie kryteriów konwergencji z Mastricht musi zapewnić korzyści gospodarce?
    Is Meeting the Convergence Criteria from Maastricht Always Beneficial for the Economy?
    Является ли твердое выполнение Маастрихтских критериев конвергенции гарантией обеспечения экономической выгоды?
    Autorzy:
    Osiatyński, Jerzy
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1029544.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    convergence criteria
    macroeconomic equilibrium
    economic growth
    критерии конвергенции
    экономическое равновесие
    экономический рост
    Opis:
    Until the world financial crisis of 2007–2008, the convergence criteria contained in the Maastricht Treaty have been commonly considered beneficial for countries that persistently observed them, although there is no economic theory from which those criteria and their specific numerical values could be derived from. Also in Poland an overwhelming majority of economists, policy makers and economic commentators claims that meeting the nominal convergence criteria, and especially the fiscal ones, will be beneficial for the Polish economy. While accepting the need to ensure consistency between fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the constrains with regard to increasing the public debt/GDP ratios in the present-day capitalism, this paper shows that the claim regarding the beneficial effects of observing those criteria is debatable and under some conditions simply wrong. In a country where there is a tendency for private savings to exceed private investments, combined with a lasting current account deficit, restricting the allowed budget deficits to merely structural deficits will depress GDP dynamics. Rigid observation of the deficit limit will then bring lasting harm to the economy. A similar conclusion is drawn regarding the public debt/GDP criterion. As regards the inflation convergence criterion, the paper argues that the problem may arise here not in relation to the objective of the policy but the particular instruments of achieving inflation targets. When the main instrument of achieving the inflation target is a restrictive monetary and fiscal policy, leading to high unemployment and slow wage growth, this way of controlling inflation becomes economically and socially extremely costly. For avoiding high permanent unemployment, setting less ambitions inflation targets may be more advisable.
    До финансового кризиса 2007-2008 гг. зафиксированные в Маастрихтском договоре критерии конвергенции повсеместно считались бесспорно выгодными для соблюдающих их стран, хотя ни эти критерии, ни их конкретные величины не имели обоснования в экономической теории. В Польше большинство экономистов, экономических политиков и публицистов также считает, что быстрое выполнение номинальных критериев Маастрихтского договора, особенно фискальных, будет выгодно для польской экономики. Соглашаясь с необходимостью обеспечения гармонии между денежной и фискальной политикой, а также ограничения показателя соотношения между публичным долгом и ВВП в современном капитализме, автор статьи доказывает, что мнение о безусловных выгодах от соблюдения этих критериев является как минимум дискуссионным, а в некоторых случаях ошибочным.
    Źródło:
    Ekonomista; 2014, 2; 275-286
    0013-3205
    2299-6184
    Pojawia się w:
    Ekonomista
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The balance of payments accounting as a factor for macroeconomic equilibrium achievement in an open economy
    Autorzy:
    Zhuk, Iryna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2128100.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet w Białymstoku. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu w Białymstoku
    Tematy:
    balance of payments
    macroeconomic equilibrium
    open economy
    the balance of payments and external equilibrium regulating tools
    Opis:
    Purpose – To study the concept of the balance of payments (BOP) as the main international financial statement of a nation, to identify the causes and effects of its imbalances and the factors of achieving external equilibrium for a national economy, as well. Methods – The theoretical and methodological research is based on systematic, structural and functional analysis, logical abstraction, induction, deduction, as well as comparative and statistical analysis. Approach – The theoretical justification of the relationship between key figures of the balance of payments and the main macroeconomic identities, the research of the balance of payments regulation tools aimed at achieving its steady state as a precondition for open economy equilibrium. Findings – The rationale for choosing the balance of payments regulation policy based on using some theories aimed at searching for an optimal balance or so-called equilibrium between the development of external and internal factors of the economy. Thus, the study has shown that the practical implementation of these theoretical concepts finds its application in various ways of equalizing the balance of payments. The constituent elements of these concepts are the forms of equalization, the level of regulation, the methods and tools of state regulation.
    Źródło:
    Optimum. Economic Studies; 2018, 2(92); 168-176
    1506-7637
    Pojawia się w:
    Optimum. Economic Studies
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Cointegration analysis and VECM of FDI, employment, export and GDP in Croatia (2002-2017) with particular reference to the global crisis and poor macroeconomic governance
    Autorzy:
    Škare, Marinko
    Franc-Dąbrowska, Justyna
    Cvek, Dajana
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22444360.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    FDI
    VECM model
    macroeconomic variables
    long-term equilibrium
    crisis
    Opis:
    Research background: The preconditions for attracting foreign investment are political stability and long-term capital investment, positively influencing the recipient country's development. During the crisis as well as in the unstable political environment, economic agents engage in speculative and risky acts for faster earnings. Purpose of the article: The paper aims to point out the importance of foreign direct investments (FDI) and other macroeconomic variables and their relationship with particular reference to the Croatian economy in 2002-2017. Methods: We use ADF test, development of the VECM model, testing of the stability of the VECM model, decomposition of the variance of the predictive errors of the variables, analysis of responses to unit orthogonal pulses. The vector correction auto-regression model (VECM) explores the long-term relationship between (FDI) and macroeconomic indicators in crisis time. Findings & Value-added: Applying the VECM model, we find that employment, export, and GDP variables are exogenous in the short term. The FDI variable is statistically significant and adjusts for the long-run equilibrium. Analyzing the responses to unit shocks, we conclude there is weak feedback of the observed variables and a weak effect of the observed variables in the Croatian economy. The FDI variable does not affect GDP, employment, and exports in Croatia due to poor macroeconomic management, corruption, regional development, inefficiency, and inefficient foreign direct investment structure.
    Źródło:
    Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2020, 15, 4; 761-783
    1689-765X
    2353-3293
    Pojawia się w:
    Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Workers or Consumers: Who Pays for Low-Carbon Transition – Theoretical Analysis of Welfare Change in General Equilibrium Setting
    Autorzy:
    Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan
    Boratyński, Jakub
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1964871.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021-08-20
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych
    Tematy:
    computable general equilibrium models
    integrated assessment models
    just transition
    macroeconomic costs of transition
    welfare compensation
    Opis:
    Policies that are introduced to mitigate adverse consequences of climate change involve economic costs. For some households, these costs will materialise in the form of an increase in prices of consumption goods, whereas for others they will materialise in the form of falling productivity and wages. Disentangling these two effects is important in the light of the design of funds that aim to support the households that are negatively affected by climate policy. In this article, we study the effect of carbon tax on welfare through changes of consumer prices and wages in a general equilibrium setting. In the first step, we review the literature on ‘top-down’ models, which are used to evaluate the macroeconomic cost of climate policy. We find that these models usually do not account for loss of productivity of workers who must change their sector due to climate policy. In the second step, we develop a theoretical, micro-founded, two-sector model that explicitly accounts for the loss of productivity of workers. The compensation of climate-change mitigation costs would require allocation of separate funds for the affected consumers and workers.
    Źródło:
    Central European Economic Journal; 2021, 8, 55; 231-245
    2543-6821
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Economic Journal
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    ANALIZA GRY MONETARNO - FISKALNEJ NA PRZYKŁADZIE GOSPODARKI POLSKIEJ
    ANALYSIS OF THE MONETARY-FISCAL GAME IN THE CASE OF POLAND
    Autorzy:
    Kruś, Lech
    Woroniecka-Leciejewicz, Irena
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453758.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
    Tematy:
    gra monetarno-fiskalna
    model makroekonomiczny
    równowaga Nasha
    Pareto optymalność
    fiscal monetary game
    macroeconomic modeling
    Nash equilibrium
    Pareto optimality
    Opis:
    Artykuł przedstawia wyniki analizy policy mix z wykorzystaniem niekooperacyjnej gry między władzami fiskalnymi i monetarnymi oraz modelu makroekonomicznego opartego na koncepcji nowej syntezy neoklasycznej. Dokonano estymacji modelu dla Polski w latach 2000-2014. Przeprowadzono szereg symulacji z wykorzystaniem modelu oraz systemu komputerowego wyznaczającego wypłaty gry. Przeanalizowano alternatywne policies mix w stosunku do realizowanych w przeszłości polityk: monetarnej i fiskalnej. Wyznaczono i przeanalizowano optymalne strategie odpowiedzi oraz strategie równowagi Nasha.
    Analysis of the policy mix is presented using a noncooperative game and a macroeconomic model formulated on the basis of the New Neoclassical Synthesis concept. The game describes interactions of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The model has been estimated for the Poland in 2000–2014. Simulations have been made using the model and the constructed computer based system calculating payoffs of the game. The fiscal and monetary policies alternative to the historical ones are shown and analyzed. The best response strategies and the Nash equilibria are derived and discussed.
    Źródło:
    Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2016, 17, 2; 54-64
    2082-792X
    Pojawia się w:
    Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-6 z 6

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