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Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4
Tytuł:
Zmiany w czasie reguły Taylora a polityka pieniężna w Polsce
Polish monetary policy through the lens of regime switching Taylor rule
Autorzy:
Baranowski, Paweł
Sztaudynger, Jan Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425086.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
Taylor rule
dynamic general equilibrium models
regime switching models
monetary policy
Opis:
The goal of the paper was to verify the stability of Taylor rule parameters. The empirical analysis was performed for Poland; using 1996-2016 monthly data. More specifically, we verify two hyphotheses: (1) the behaviour of interest rate can be described using Taylor rule; (2) the Taylor rule with parameters subject to Markov switching performs better than the one with constant parameters. We take a system approach, where a Taylor rule is a part of small scale DSGE model. The bayesian inference is used to estimate the model and compare the specifications. The results indicate that models with switching parameters are better in terms of marginal data density. The best model is based on forward looking Taylor rule, where the parameters expressing the magnitude of the reaction to inflation and output gap were subject to Markov switching, while interest rate smoothing was constant. The identified regime switching can be interpreted as not responsing for inflation below the tar-get (opportunistic disinflation declared for 2001-2002 by Polish monetary authorities) or not responding to inflation driven mostly by EU accression (2004-2005) or increased VAT (2004-2005, 2011).
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2016, 3 (53); 9-20
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Trade Implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for Polands Agri-Food Trade
Autorzy:
Hagemejer, Jan
Michałek, Jan Jakub
Pawlak, Karolina
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2075439.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
TTIP
tariff equivalents of NTMs
general equilibrium models
partial equilibrium models
agri-food sector
Polska
Opis:
The objective of the paper is to evaluate the implications of trade liberalization under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) for the Polish economy. We analyze the level of tariffs and non-tariff protection in the US and in the EU and identify products particularly “sensitive” from the point of view of TTIP liberalization. With the help of a partial equilibrium model, we simulate the trade implications of the TTIP for Poland’s trade with the US at the detailed product level. We analyze trade creation and diversion effects of tariff elimination and partial removal of non-tariff barriers. We found that the TTIP can increase Poland’s trade with the US by around 45 percent with a limited impact on its trade with the European Union (EU) members. Subsequent general equilibrium simulations show that trade diversion effects of the TTIP are substantial, while the welfare benefits of the agreement are limit
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2021, 1; 75-103
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Workers or Consumers: Who Pays for Low-Carbon Transition – Theoretical Analysis of Welfare Change in General Equilibrium Setting
Autorzy:
Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan
Boratyński, Jakub
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1964871.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-08-20
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
computable general equilibrium models
integrated assessment models
just transition
macroeconomic costs of transition
welfare compensation
Opis:
Policies that are introduced to mitigate adverse consequences of climate change involve economic costs. For some households, these costs will materialise in the form of an increase in prices of consumption goods, whereas for others they will materialise in the form of falling productivity and wages. Disentangling these two effects is important in the light of the design of funds that aim to support the households that are negatively affected by climate policy. In this article, we study the effect of carbon tax on welfare through changes of consumer prices and wages in a general equilibrium setting. In the first step, we review the literature on ‘top-down’ models, which are used to evaluate the macroeconomic cost of climate policy. We find that these models usually do not account for loss of productivity of workers who must change their sector due to climate policy. In the second step, we develop a theoretical, micro-founded, two-sector model that explicitly accounts for the loss of productivity of workers. The compensation of climate-change mitigation costs would require allocation of separate funds for the affected consumers and workers.
Źródło:
Central European Economic Journal; 2021, 8, 55; 231-245
2543-6821
Pojawia się w:
Central European Economic Journal
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Inflacja w modelu z endogeniczną częstotliwością aktualizacji cen
Inflation in a Model with Endogenous Frequency of Price Changes
Инфляция в модели с эндогенной частотой актуализации цен
Autorzy:
Baranowski, Paweł
Górajski, Mariusz
Malaczewski, Maciej
Szafrański, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1013572.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
nominal rigidities
dynamic general equilibrium models
phillips curve with endogenous frequency of price updating
menu costs
номинальные жесткости
динамические модели общего равновесия
кривая филлипса с эндогенной частотой актуализации цен
издержки меню
Opis:
The key element in the contemporary DSGE models is the mechanism of nominal rigidity. Usually, the simple model developed by Calvo (1983) is used, which assumes purely random price changes. This approach does not explain the sources of price rigidity, and the state of the economy does not affect the frequency of price updating. The paper presents an alternative model of price rigidity, developed by Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999). Price changes in this model result from comparing menu costs with the benefits of price changes. In such an approach, the decisions about price updating are endogenous (state-dependent), depending on the state of the economy. In the longrun equilibrium, the main parameters that determine the frequency of price changes are: monopolistic profit markup, equilibrium inflation rate, and the maximum level of menu costs. The equation that describes inflation (the so-called state-dependent Phillips curve) has a more complicated form as compared with its equivalent in the Calvo model. The equation implies that inflation in the short run depends on the expected inflation and marginal costs, and past inflation (with an infinite lag range). The authors compare DSGE models calibrated for Poland with the mechanisms proposed by Calvo and by Dotsey, King and Wolman. On the basis of the response function we can say that the reaction of the economy in the Calvo model is stronger than in the Dotsey, King and Wolman model while the return to equilibrium is quicker (especially in the case of preference shocks and monetary shocks).
Ключевым элементом современных моделей класса DSGE является механизм номинальных жесткостей. Чаще всего применяется простая модель Кальво (1983), которая предполагает чисто случайные изменения цен. В этом подходе не выясняются источники жесткости цен, а состояние экономики не влияет на частоту их актуализации. В статье представлена альтернативная модель жесткости цен Дотсея, Кинга, Вольмана (1999). В этой модели изменения цен вытекают из сопоставления издержек меню с выгодами от изменения цены. При таком подходе решения по актуализации цен являются эндогенными и зависят от актуального состояния экономики. При долгосрочном равновесии главными параметрами, детерминирующими частоту актуализации цен, являются: наценка монополиста, норма инфляции в равновесии, а также максимальный уровень издержек меню. Уравнение, описывающее инфляцию (так называемая неокейнсианская кривая Филлипса с эндогенной частотой актуализации цен) имеет более сложный вид в модели Кальво. Из этого уравнения вытекает, что инфляция в краткосрочный период зависит от ожидаемой инфляции, максимальных и минимальных издержек и от предыдущих инфляций (с неоконченным рядом опозданий). В статье сопоставлены калиброванные для условий Польши модели DSGE с моделями Кальво, а также Дотсея, Кинга и Вольмана. На основании функции ответа на импульс можно утверждать, что реакция экономики в модели Кальво по сравнению с моделью Дотсея, Кинга, Вольмана является более сильной, а возвращение к равновесию происходит быстрее (особенно в случае шока преференций и денежного шока).
Źródło:
Ekonomista; 2014, 1; 45-65
0013-3205
2299-6184
Pojawia się w:
Ekonomista
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4

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