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Tytuł:
Decision Analysis in Project Management Process
Autorzy:
Kramarenko, S.
Shevtshenko, E.
Karaulova, T.
Wang, Y.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/971105.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Wrocławska Rada Federacji Stowarzyszeń Naukowo-Technicznych
Tematy:
intelligent decision support system
project management
decision analysis
Opis:
Very often we complain about the decisions that were previously made. Yet the fact is that the decisions made were based on the knowledge we had before. By now we have gained more knowledge. Therefore the common problem of making decisions is that decisions are not made reliable enough because parameters in risk assessment and supply chain management are underestimated or not robust enough. In this paper we propose a framework that will try to predict future situations collectively and increase the reliability of decision making. Project management is the art of making right decision. Project managers are faced by huge array of choices. Decision analysis is used in strategic planning, operational management, and other areas of business. Decision analysis helps companies to determine optimal exploration and production strategies with uncertainties in cost, prices, and exploration prospects. This paper describes project management steps and the way they can be supported by Intelligent Decision Support system (IDSS). The main parameters assessed are total cost of the projects, time of the project total fulfilment, number of subcontractors, location factors, and etc. IDSS will enable to collect data, propose possible alternative decisions, and provide risk assessment.
Źródło:
Journal of Machine Engineering; 2008, 8, 1; 104-113
1895-7595
2391-8071
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Machine Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Towards cognitive decision support: A model of behavioural assessment of multi-criteria methods
Autorzy:
Roszkowska, Ewa
Wachowicz, Tomasz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2183430.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
decision support
behavioural decision analysis
preference analysis
AHP
SMART
TOPSIS
Opis:
The Negotiation Support Systems often implement multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) techniques for building a negotiation scoring system. Those formal models should meet the needs, motivations, expectations, and cognitive abilities of users. In this paper, we try to explore the effects of decision maker’s subjective perception of ease of use, time requirements, interface, preference representation, and efficiency of a particular MCDA method on the choice regarding the future use of this method. The multinomial logistic regression model is built and analysed. The analysis is based on data from online decision making experiments, where three MCDA methods were implemented, i.e. AHP, SMART, and TOPSIS. The study provides several interesting findings, concerning the behavioural aspects of multiple criteria decision aiding in software support systems. Most of the users recommended TOPSIS as the best one for supporting decisions in the future. This is a fast technique, for which we used an attractive graphical interface, suggesting that these factors play a crucial role in the users’ choices. However, the causative regression model showed that the user’s positive experience in using a particular method, i.e. its effectiveness in solving an exemplary numerical case, has the highest impact on the method’s choice for future use. The second most important factor is the adequacy in representing the user’s preferences by this method. We show, however, that the strengths of effects and their significance may vary across the methods. Understanding the decision maker’s evaluations of the MCDA techniques may help build a cognitive negotiation support system that satisfies the user’s expectations.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2021, 50, 1; 145--168
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multidimensional Scaling in Economic Research
Wielowymiarowe skalowanie w badaniach ekonomicznych
Autorzy:
Biela, Adam
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/904915.pdf
Data publikacji:
2004
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
multidimensional scaling
theory of data decision analysis
Opis:
A relationship between the theoretical terms and the observational ones, called also a perceptual or observational, is essential for scientific research of empirical type, including social sciences and economic sciences. This relationship cannot be clarified in terms of a complete definition but only by a partial definition. This methodological truth is well known since R. Carnap's works. Later on it was developed in methodology of sciences by the Polish logicians: Przełęcki, Poznański and Kamiński. Multivariable techniques are necessary when one wants to define the relationships between variables in economic and social sciences. However, the results obtained in such analysis are often unsatisfactory because the residual variance is too large. Multidimensional scaling proposes quite a different methodological approach for seeking the relationship between the theoretical terms and the observational ones. This paper aims: (1) to show what kind of methodological proposition is multidimensional scaling; (2) to show what are the possible directions of applying multidimensional scaling to social and economic analysis; (3) to define the multidimensional character of decision analysis.
W badaniach naukowych typu empirycznego (do których należą również nauki społeczne i ekonomiczne) istotne znaczenie ma określenie związku pomiędzy terminami teoretycznymi a terminami empirycznymi. Związku tego nie da się ustalić w postaci definicji zupełnych, lecz tylko i wyłącznie przez definicje cząstkowe. Ta prawda znana jest już od czasu prac R. Carnapa, a została utrwalona i rozwinięta w metodologii nauk przez polskich logików: Przełęckiego, Poznańskiego, Kamińskiego. W określaniu związków pomiędzy analizowanymi zmiennymi w naukach społecznych i ekonomicznych konieczne jest stosowanie technik wielozmiennowych. Wyniki uzyskanych analiz nie są jednak zadowalające z uwagi na ich zbyt wielką wariancję resztową. Nieco inne podejście metodologiczne w poszukiwaniu związku między terminami teoretycznymi i empirycznymi proponuje skalowanie wielowymiarowe. Artykuł omawia założenia metodologiczne skalowania wielowymiarowego, teorię danych С. H. Coombsa (1964) jako podstawę logiczną tego skalowania oraz przydatność tej metody w analizie decyzyjnej. Wskazano, iż skalowanie wielowymiarowe może okazać się przydatne w pierwszych etapach pracy badawczej, eksperckiej, analitycznej czy aplikacyjnej, gdy należy usystematyzować zebrane dane i na tej podstawie przystąpić dopiero do formułowania hipotez, sądów, diagnoz, ocen. Istnieje jeszcze jedna możliwość wykorzystania skalowania wielowymiarowego, a jest nią mianowicie integrowanie różnych opinii oraz ekspertyz w przedmiotowej kwestii.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2004, 175
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Comparison of the valuations of alternatives based on cumulative prospect theory and almost stochastic dominance
Autorzy:
Michalska, E.
Dudzińska-Baryła, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/406467.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
cumulative prospect theory
almost stochastic dominance
decision analysis
Opis:
There are commonly accepted and objective decision rules, which are consistent with rationality, for example stochastic dominance rules. But, as can be seen in many research studies in behavioral economics, decision makers do not always act rationally. Rules based on cumulative prospect theory or almost stochastic dominance are relatively new tools which model real choices. Both approaches take into account some behavioral factors. The aim of this paper is to check the consistency of orders of the valuations of random alternatives based on these behavioral rules. The order of the alternatives is generated by a preference relation over the decision set. In this paper, we show that the methodology for creating rankings based on total orders can be used for the preference relations considered, because they enable comparison of all the elements in a set of random alternatives. For almost second degree stochastic dominance, this is possible due to its particular properties, which stochastic dominance does not possess.
Źródło:
Operations Research and Decisions; 2012, 22, 3; 23-36
2081-8858
2391-6060
Pojawia się w:
Operations Research and Decisions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Rough set based processing of inconsistent information in decision analysis
Autorzy:
Słowiński, R.
Stefanowski, J.
Greco, S.
Matarazzo, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206765.pdf
Data publikacji:
2000
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
klasyfikacja
kombinatoryka
teoria decyzji
teoria gier
classification
decision analysis
knowledge based systems
multi-criteria decision analysis
rough sets
rule induction
Opis:
Inconsistent information is one of main difficulties in the explanation and recommendation tasks of decision analysis. We distinguish two kinds of such information inconsistencies : the first is related to indiscernibility of objects described by attributes defined in nominal or ordinal scales, and the other follows from violation of the dominance principle among attributes defined on preference ordered ordinal or cardinal scales, i.e. among criteria. In this paper we discuss how these two kinds of inconsistencies are handled by a new approach based on the rough sets theory. Combination of this theory with inductive learning techniques leads to generation of decision rules from rough approximations of decision classes. Particular attention is paid to numerical attribute scales and preference-ordered scales of criteria, and their influence on the syntax of induced decision rules.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2000, 29, 1; 379-404
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bibliometric analysis of multiple criteria decision making in agriculture
Autorzy:
Francik, S.
Pedrycz, N.
Knapczyk, A.
Wójcik, A.
Francik, R.
Łapczyńska-Kordon, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/298286.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
Tematy:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis
bibliometric analysis
research trends
agriculture
Opis:
Development trends (Research Trends) in scientific research on the methods of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in agriculture are analyzed. Established bibliometric techniques are applied. MCDA/MCDM methods are being very intensively developed in recent years, as evidenced by the number of scientific papers published annually in renowned scientific journals indexed in the Web of Science (WoS) database. In the years 1979-2015 a total of 1,355 scientific articles were collected in the database. The number of articles published annually increased rapidly after 2005. Besides, the annual number of citations of the publications is increasing. Research on MCDA/MCDM is conducted in many research areas. In the years 1984-2015 the Web of Science database accumulated 27 scientific publications on MCDA/MCDM in agriculture area. Therefore, it can be concluded that the MCDA/MCDM issues are currently not sufficiently analyzed in relation to agriculture. In the future this subject will probably be further developed, an increasing number of scientists will conduct research on the MCDA/MCDM and the annual number of articles published in the field will increase.
Źródło:
Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn; 2017, 20(1); 17-30
1505-4675
2083-4527
Pojawia się w:
Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of multi-criteria approach for sustainability assessment of manufacturing processes
Autorzy:
Kluczek, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407367.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
multi-criteria decision analysis
analytical hierarchy process
sustainability assessment
manufacturing
Opis:
The paper is to present a multi-criteria approach for sustainability assessment of manufacturing processes, which can be applied to carry out the sustainability assessment of manufacturing processes requiring less detailed data, time, and expert knowledge, but still providing a company-level analysis. The analytical hierarchy process method is used to determine ranking of simple and relevant activity areas for manufacturing processes in terms of sustainability objectives. Analytical technique is also employed to assess the degree of sustainability in manufacturing due to limited information which appear to be a characteristic of the case study presented. One goal of sustainability characterization methodology is to improve the manufacturing sustainability performance. Similar to the baseline scenario, sustainability reevaluation for sustainability improvement is also applied and discuses performance profile at the process level. This approach seems particularly useful when comparing different processes. It makes applicable for various industries and might be a challenge to derive priorities for systematic improvement. The applicability and usability of the proposed assessment method was verified by the case study in company producing heating devices.
Źródło:
Management and Production Engineering Review; 2016, 7, 3; 62-78
2080-8208
2082-1344
Pojawia się w:
Management and Production Engineering Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Incorporating Customer Preference Information into the Forecasting of Service Sales
Autorzy:
Rzepakowski, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/309026.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
conjoint analysis
consumer behavior
decision analysis
forecasting
marketing tools
multiple criteria analysis
preference measurement
Opis:
Customers change their preferences while getting more familiar with services or being motivated to change their buying habits. Different sources of motivation induce customers to change their behavior: an advertisement, a leader in a reference group, satisfaction from services usage and other experiences, but usually those reasons are unknown. Nevertheless, people vary in susceptibility to suggestions and innovations, and also in preference structure change dynamics. Historical information about the preference structure gives additional information about uncertainty in forecasting activity. In this work the conjoint analysis method was used to find customer preference structure and to improve a prediction accuracy of telecommunication services usage. The results have shown that prediction accuracy increases about by one percent point, what results in a 20 percent increase after using proposed algorithm modification.
Źródło:
Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology; 2009, 3; 50-58
1509-4553
1899-8852
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multi-method and multi-criteria decision analysis of objects in a computerized decision support system
Autorzy:
Becker, J.
Becker, A.
Budziński, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/406607.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
multi-criteria decision analysis
ranking
grouping
allocation of resources
computerized decision support system
DSS
Opis:
A multimethod approach to the multicriteria analysis and assessment of objects (rankings, grouping, econometric assessments) have been presented. This issue is a field of research and engineering associated with the construction and application of a computerized decision support system (DSS 2.0). In terms of the proposed approach, the functionality of the developed prototype has been illustrated based on a practical example of the assessment of employees and the analysis of remuneration. The Electre TRI method of grouping derived from a relational model complements ranking methods well (e.g., AHP) based on the functional model. Grouping reveals cases, where all or the vast majority of objects in a ranking were clustered within one class (e.g., in the best or the worst one).
Źródło:
Operations Research and Decisions; 2017, 27, 3; 21-33
2081-8858
2391-6060
Pojawia się w:
Operations Research and Decisions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multi-criteria model for determining the urgency of consolidation works (on the example of the moniecki county)
Autorzy:
Kobryń, Andrzej
Tekień, Tomasz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/95734.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Fundacja Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
Tematy:
konsolidacja
planowanie
wielokryterialna analiza decyzji
consolidation
planning
multi-criteria decision analysis
Opis:
The article proposes the use of one of the methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (AHP method) to determine the urgency of consolidation works in the area of the Moniecki county. To this end, an appropriate set of criteria was adopted for the mutual comparison of precincts in the considered area. The calculations include a non-typical for AHP method, a large number of considered ranges. The analysis covered 201 precincts, and as a result, the areas with the greatest urgency of merging works were indicated.
Źródło:
Ekonomia i Środowisko; 2019, 1; 86-98
0867-8898
Pojawia się w:
Ekonomia i Środowisko
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monotonicity of the Selling Price of Information with Risk Aversion in Two Action Decision Problems
Autorzy:
Bakir, Niyazi Onur
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076547.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
decision analysis
value of information
selling price
risk aversion
buying price
Opis:
Various approaches have been introduced over the years to evaluate information in the expected utility framework. This paper analyzes the relationship between the degree of risk aversion and the selling price of information in a lottery setting with two actions. We show that the initial decision on the lottery as well as the attitude of the decision maker towards risk as a function of the initial wealth level are critical to characterizing this relationship. When the initial decision is to reject, a non-decreasingly risk averse decision maker asks for a higher selling price as he gets less risk averse. Conversely, when the initial decision is to accept, non-increasingly risk averse decision makers ask a higher selling price as they get more risk averse if information is collected on bounded lotteries. We also show that the assumption of the lower bound for lotteries can be relaxed for the quadratic utility family.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2015, 2; 71-90
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wielokryterialny model decyzyjny w wyborze lokalizacji lotniska pasażerskiego w województwie podlaskim
Multi-criteria decision model in selection of the airport location in podlaskie voievodship
Autorzy:
Kobryń, A.
Bakunowicz, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/96508.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Fundacja Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
Tematy:
wielokryterialna analiza decyzji
lokalizacja lotniska
multi-criteria decision analysis
airport location
Opis:
W ramach poniższego artykułu przeprowadzono uproszczone analizy w celu wyłonienia optymalnej lokalizacji podlaskiego portu lotniczego, a uproszczenie to wynikało głównie z ograniczonego miejsca na przedstawienie tych analiz. Rozpatrzono cztery potencjalne lokalizacje, a wyboru dokonano z użyciem metod wielokryterialnego wspomagania decyzji (MCDA/MCDM), które na świecie od wielu lat są bardzo popularne i pomocne w rozwiązywaniu różnego rodzaju problemów decyzyjnych.
This article presents the use of multi-criteria decision analysis methods of the problem of the choice of the airport location in Podlaskie Voivodeship. The objects of analysis are four potential locations that were considered in the light of economic, spatial, social and environmental criteria. At the outset the desirability of construction of an airport in the voievodship of Podlasie has been justified. Then criteria were defined and analyses were made in order to identify the optimal location. The analyses were performed using very popular methods of multi-criteria decision analysis like AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS.
Źródło:
Ekonomia i Środowisko; 2015, 1; 80-91
0867-8898
Pojawia się w:
Ekonomia i Środowisko
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multi-criteria analysis for solar farm location suitability
Autorzy:
Mierzwiak, M.
Calka, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/106711.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Politechnika Warszawska. Wydział Geodezji i Kartografii
Tematy:
solar farm
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
spatial analysis
farma słoneczna
analiza wielokryterialna
analiza przestrzenna
Opis:
Currently the number of solar farms, as a type of renewable sources of energy, is growing rapidly. Photovoltaic power stations have many advantages, which is an incentive for their building and development. Solar energy is readily available and inexhaustible, and its production is environmentally friendly. In the present study multiple environmental and economic criteria were taken into account to select a potential photovoltaic farm location, with particular emphasis on: protected areas, land cover, solar radiation, slope angle, proximity to roads, built-up areas, and power lines. Advanced data analysis were used because of the multiplicity of criteria and their diverse influence on the choice of a potential location. They included the spatial analysis, the Weighted Linear Combination Technique (WLC), and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision-making method. The analysis was divided into two stages. In the first one, the areas where the location of solar farms was not possible were excluded. In the second one, the best locations meeting all environmental and economic criteria were selected. The research was conducted for the Legionowo District, using data from national surveying and mapping resources such as: BDOT10k (Database of Topographic Objects), NMT (Numerical Terrain Model), and lands and buildings register. Finally, several areas meeting the criteria were chosen. The research deals with solar farms with up to 40 kW power. The results of the study are presented as thematic maps. The advantage of the method is its versatility. It can be used not only for any area, but with little modification of the criteria, it can also be applied to choose a location for wind farms.
Źródło:
Reports on Geodesy and Geoinformatics; 2017, 104; 20-32
2391-8365
2391-8152
Pojawia się w:
Reports on Geodesy and Geoinformatics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Assessment of the historical policy mixes for Poland using the game approach
Autorzy:
Kruś, L.
Woroniecka-Leciejewicz, I.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/205620.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
game theory
economic modeling
policy-mix
decision analysis
Nash equilibrium
Pareto optimality
Opis:
The study here presented pertains to the analysis of mutual interactions of the monetary and fiscal policies in the case of Poland. The historical policies carried out during different periods of time and their economic effects are compared with the possible strategies, obtained from the analysis of the proposed monetaryfiscal game. In the study, the methods of non-cooperative game theory are combined with macroeconomic modeling. The respective game is formulated for monetary and fiscal authorities as players. Strategies of these players refer to the respective instruments of their policies: the real interest rate and the budget deficit in relation to GDP. Payoffs include inflation and GDP growth, respectively. The payoffs are calculated using a recursive macroeconomic model estimated for the Polish economy. The model describes influences of the instruments of the monetary and fiscal policies on the state of the economy. The best response strategies, the Nash equilibria and Pareto optimality are analyzed. Changes of the policies towards the more restrictive or more expansive ones and their effects in comparison to the historically applied are discussed. This is performed for two different time periods – the time of recovery after 2004 and the time of the global financial crisis after 2008.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2018, 47, 3; 277-300
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Using the AHP method to select an ERP system for an SME manufacturing company
Autorzy:
Kłos, S.
Trebuna, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/406726.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
decision analysis
enterprise resource planning (ERP)
analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
manufacturing
enterprises
Opis:
This paper proposes the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process method to support decision making regarding the selection of an Enterprise Resource Planning system in a manufacturing company. The main assumption of the work is that the management of the selection of an ERP system should consider that the most important selection criteria are concerned with the functionality of the ERP system. Besides this, the aspects of total cost of ownership, technical support and implementation time or vendor experience are taken into consideration to guarantee a successful ERP implementation. The proposed procedure of an ERP system selection is dedicated for small and medium manufacturing enterprises. A structure of attributes for the AHP method is proposed on the basis of an analysis and identification of critical success factors. Different kinds of production (make-to-stock, make-to-order and engineer-to-order are taken into consideration). Illustrative examples are also given.
Źródło:
Management and Production Engineering Review; 2014, 5, 3; 14-22
2080-8208
2082-1344
Pojawia się w:
Management and Production Engineering Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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