- Tytuł:
-
Barometry koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej: edycja 1998
Composite Leading Indicators of Business Activity for Poland: 1998 Edition - Autorzy:
- Matkowski, Zbigniew
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500135.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 1999
- Wydawca:
- Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
- Tematy:
-
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Monitoring gospodarczy, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Barometry koniunktury
Business trends, Business cycles, Economic monitoring, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Business cycle indicators - Opis:
- The author presents a revised version of composite leading indicators of business activity for Poland, compiled according to the OECD methodology. They are projected against the reference index GCI, used to describe cyclical fluctuations of the aggregate economic activity. First part of the paper examines the chronology and the amplitude of growth cycles observed in the development of the economy in the period of 1975-1997. The second part presents seven altemative versions of CLI for Poland. All are well correlated with the reference cycle, but they display very short leads if any. Nonetheless, the barometer may be useful in monitoring cyclical developments in the economy. It also offers a possibility to generate extrapolative forecasts one year ahead. Updating of the composite indicators has revealed the peak of the aggregate economic activity in April 1997. This may suggest that the expansion, which started in 1991, comes to its end. Autoregressive forecast of the reference indicator for 1998 also indicates a slowdown in economic growth.
- Źródło:
-
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 141-172
0866-9503 - Pojawia się w:
- Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł