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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 52
Tytuł:
A modeling framework to assess the impact of climate change on river runoff
Autorzy:
Kuchar, L.
Iwański, S.
Jelonek, L.
Szalińska, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108599.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
climate change
spatial weather generator
regional hydrology
distributed rainfall-runoff model
Opis:
Global climate change is anticipated to have consequences on water resources and the environment both at global and local/regional levels. Efforts towards proper management of future water resources and resolving potential water-related conflicts require the formulation of appropriate techniques to downscale the output of global climate models (GCM) to local conditions for hydrologic prediction. The paper presents an integrated framework for modeling the impact of climate change on river runoff that combines methodology for downscaling climate change scenarios for a basin scale with a hydrological model to estimate the impact of climate change on a river runoff. The modeling framework uses long-term observations of meteorological and hydrological variables together with a climate change scenario to provide a projection of future flows for the specified time horizon. The framework is based on a spatial weather generator and a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Such a configuration enables a reflection of the uncertainty of future conditions by running multiple realizations of future conditions, and also take into account the spatial variability of hydrological properties in the catchment by maintaining the physical details at a given grid size. The performance of the framework was presented for the Kaczawa basin that is one of the main left bank tributaries of the Odra River – the second biggest river in Poland. The results show simulated changes of the future river flow regime caused by climatic changes for two time horizons: 2040 and 2080.
Źródło:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2014, 2, 2; 49-63
2299-3835
2353-5652
Pojawia się w:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts – implications for mining activity in Polish coal regions
Autorzy:
Janson, Ewa
Markowska, Małgorzata
Łabaj, Paweł
Wrana, Aleksander
Zawartka, Paweł
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1853841.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
zmiany klimatyczne
działalność górnicza
wydobycie węgla
climate change
mining activity
extreme weather events
climate change impacts on coal mining
transition of coal regions
Opis:
It is widely known and accepted that the global climate is changing with unprecedented speed. Climate models project increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes which will alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographic distribution of climate-related hazards including flood, drought and heat waves. In the mining industry, climate change impacts are an area of research around the world, mostly in relation to the mining industry in Australia and Canada, where mining policies and mitigation actions based on the results of this research were adopted and applied. In Poland, there is still a lack of research on how climate change, and especially extreme weather events, impacts mining activity. This impact may be of particular importance in Poland, where the mining industry is in the process of intensive transition. The paper presents an overview of hazardous events in mining in Poland that were related to extreme weather phenomena. The needs and recommended actions in the scope of mitigating the impact of future climate change on mining in all stages of its functioning were also indicated. The presented analyses and conclusions are the results of the first activities in the TEXMIN project: The impact of extreme weather events on mining activities, identifying the most important factors resulting from climate change impact on mining.
Źródło:
Archives of Mining Sciences; 2020, 65, 3; 703-717
0860-7001
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Mining Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Air temperature exposure and agricultural occupational injuries in the Autonomous Province of Trento (2000–2013, North-Eastern Italy)
Autorzy:
Riccò, Matteo
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2159913.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017-12-21
Wydawca:
Instytut Medycyny Pracy im. prof. dra Jerzego Nofera w Łodzi
Tematy:
agricultural workers
climate change
heat exposure
occupational injuries
hot weather
heat wave
Opis:
Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between high air temperatures and occupational injuries (OIs) occurred during the summer seasons 2000–2013 in agricultural workers from the Autonomous Province of Trento (APT), North-Eastern Italy. Material and Methods Data about OIs for the APT from 2000 to 2013 occurring during the warm season (N = 7325) was provided by the National Institute of Insurance for Occupational Illness and Injury. Daily average and daily maximum temperatures values for the specific geographical site of events were retrieved. Daily temperatures were then assessed in 3 time lags: for the day of the event (lag 0), and for the previous 24 h (lag 1) and 48 h (lag 2). Daily temperatures were then categorized in 3 exposure groups (< 75th, 75–95th and > 95th percentiles). The risk of OIs was assessed as odds ratio (OR) calculated through a Poisson regression model controlled for age, sex, ethnicity and time period, and assuming OI rates for days on which temperature was comprised in < 75th percentile exposure groups as the referent ones. Results Estimated incidence of OIs during the study period was 3.4±2.3 events/day. The peak of work-related accidents occurred on days characterized by severe thermal conditions, and in particular during heat waves (incidence rate ratio = 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02–1.17, p = 0.0165). Days having temperatures higher than 95th percentile, assessed as daily average, both on current days (OR = 1.119, 95% CI: 1.008–1.242) and in lag 1 (OR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.013–1.249), as well as daily maximum temperatures, were at the highest risk of work-related injuries (OR = 1.144, 95% CI: 1.029–1.272). Conclusions In conclusion, presented findings recommend policymakers to develop appropriate warning/alert systems for agricultural workers regarding high environmental temperatures. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2018;31(3):317–331
Źródło:
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health; 2018, 31, 3; 317-331
1232-1087
1896-494X
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka pogodowego w branży rolnej jako istotny element działań adaptacyjnych do zmian klimatu
The analysis of a weather risk in agriculture as an important part in the process of adaptation to the climate change
Autorzy:
Michalak, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/96626.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Fundacja Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
Tematy:
ryzyko pogodowe
zmiany klimatu
przemysł rolniczy
analiza ryzyka
weather risk
climate change
agricultural industry
risk analysis
Opis:
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie kroków analizy ryzyka pogodowego, jakie powinno podjąć przedsiębiorstwo rolne, aby skutecznie zarządzać ryzykiem pogodowym, co stanowi nieodłączny element działań adaptacyjnych do zmian klimatu. Aby podkreślić istotność omawianego tematu, biorąc pod uwagę koncepcję zrównoważonego rozwoju, na wstępie omówiono społeczny, ekonomiczny i środowiskowy wymiar zmian klimatu. Następnie przedstawiono metody identyfikacji ryzyka pogodowego, elementy efektywnego zarządzania ryzykiem pogodowym w rolnictwie, proponowane zabezpieczenia finansowe i fizyczne, tak aby na końcu zaprezentować schemat analizy ryzyka pogodowego w przedsiębiorstwie rolnym.
Every year, the climate change is gaining momentum. One of the primary objectives of the European Union is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, we need to keep in mind that even if carbon dioxide emissions levels will be reduced to the stated level it does not change the fact, that some climate changes are inevitable. Therefore it is now when the adaptive actions should be carried out, to adapt the economy, the local society and the environment. to the new reality. The aim of this paper is to present the stages of the weather risk analysis, which should be carried out by the farm owner to efficiently manage the weather risk. This stands an inherent element of adapting to the climate change. To emphasise the importance of the subject, also taking the concept of sustainable development into account, the introduction presents the social, economic and environmental dimensions of the climate change. This is followed by the weather risk identification methods, elements of an effective weather risk management in agriculture, the proposed financial and physical security, so that at the end of the present scheme of weather risk analysis in agricultural busines.
Źródło:
Ekonomia i Środowisko; 2016, 2; 95-111
0867-8898
Pojawia się w:
Ekonomia i Środowisko
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Critical infrastructure operating area climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068851.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
operation
prediction
climate-weather change
Opis:
The climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are introduced. A semi-Markov approach is used to construct a general probabilistic model of this process by defining its basic parameters. Further, the procedure of the climate-weather change process characteristics prediction is proposed.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 15--24
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Critical infrastructure operation process
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068841.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
operation
prediction
climate-weather change
Opis:
The operation process of the critical infrastructure is considered and its operation states are introduced. The semi- Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the critical infrastructure operation process.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 1--6
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068865.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
operation
prediction
climate-weather change
Opis:
Considering a significant influence of the critical infrastructure operating environment threats on its operation process and safety, based on semi-Markov processes theory, a convergent to reality model of the critical infrastructure operation process related to critical infrastructure operating environment threats is built. The method of defining the parameters of this operation process is presented and new procedures of their determining in the case when the critical infrastructure operating threats are not explicit separated in this process are proposed.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 7--14
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Critical infrastructure operation process related to climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazard
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068843.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
operation
prediction
climate-weather change
Opis:
The operation process of the critical infrastructure is considered and its operation states are introduced. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the critical infrastructure operation process. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 25--40
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Deforestation and its impacts on climate change an overview of Pakistan
Autorzy:
Ali, A.
Riaz, S.
Iqbal, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/11968.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
climate change
deforestation
Pakistan
catastrophic event
forest age
natural factor
weather
industrialization
urbanization
global temperature
surface temperature
disaster
South Asia
Opis:
Forests are one the main natural factors that regulate and determine climate, weather patterns and amount of CO2 of an area. With rapid industrialization and rapid urbanization there is a significant increase in deforestation and as a consequence rise in global mean surface temperatures. Rapid and unchecked cut down of forest cover has resulted in some of the worst disasters during the last decades. This paper focuses on studying the role of deforestation, its influence on climate change phenomena and its consequences in Pakistan.
Źródło:
Papers on Global Change; 2014, 21
2300-8121
1730-802X
Pojawia się w:
Papers on Global Change
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Derywaty pogodowe jako instrument efektywnego zarządzania ryzykiem pogodowym
Weather derivatives as an effective instrument of risk management
Autorzy:
Michalak, Dorota
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/105706.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Centrum Badań i Innowacji Pro-Akademia
Tematy:
ryzyko pogodowe
turystyka
derywaty pogodowe
zarządzanie ryzykiem pogodowym
warunki pogodowe
zmiany klimatyczne
weather risk
tourism
weather derivatives
weather conditions
climate change
Opis:
Celem artykułu jest wskazanie odpowiedniego instrumentu, który umożliwia ograniczenie ryzyka pogodowego o charakterze niekatastroficznym. Tekst składa się z dwóch części. Pierwsza część – ma charakter teoretyczny, a zarazem wprowadzający w zagadnienie, stanowiące przedmiot analiz w części drugiej. Skupiono się w niej na aspektach definicyjnych i klasyfikacjach ryzyka pogodowego oraz wpływie niekorzystnych warunków pogodowych na poszczególne branże, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem turystyki. W drugiej części zaprezentowano opis działania derywatów pogodowych, jako szczególnego rodzaju instrumentów pochodnych oraz zamieszczono praktyczne przykłady z ich zastosowania w branży turystycznej, w celu ukazania, że fizyczna kontrola ryzyka pogodowego jest możliwa. W konkluzji sformułowano kilka istotnych problemów badawczych wymagających badań i studiów w kontekście zarządzania ryzykiem pogodowym w branży turystycznej regionu łódzkiego.
The purpose of this article is to identify the appropriate instruments, which can reduce the risk of noncatastrophic weather changes. The text consists of two parts. The first part is theoretical, and introduces the issue of weather derivatives. It focuses on the aspects of the definitional and classification of weather risk and the effects of adverse weather conditions in the various sectors, with particular emphasis on tourism. The second part presents the description of weather derivatives as a special kind of derivative instruments, and provides practical examples of its application in the tourism industry, in order to show that the physical control of weather risk is possible. In conclusion, several important research problems that require research and study in the context of weather risk management in the tourism industry of the region of Lodz are formulated.
Źródło:
Acta Innovations; 2011, 1; 41-47
2300-5599
Pojawia się w:
Acta Innovations
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Developing criteria for a stakeholder-centred evaluation of climate services: the case of extreme event attribution for storm surges at the German Baltic Sea
Autorzy:
Schwab, M.
Storch, H. von
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108498.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
usługi klimatyczne
ekstremalne zdarzenia pogodowe
zmiana klimatu
climate service
extreme weather event
climate change
stakeholder-centered evaluation
Opis:
Science-based knowledge about climate-related hazards is an inevitable part of the knowledge basis needed for many stakeholders’ decision-making. Despite continuous advances in climate science, much of this knowledge is perceived to be hardly accessible, understandable, or relevant to stakeholders. One relatively new field where these aspects may become evident is extreme weather event attribution. It has received much attention in science in recent years, but its potential usefulness to stakeholders has rarely been addressed in the literature so far. This study has therefore developed criteria for evaluating potential climate services from a stakeholder perspective, using the example of findings from extreme event attribution. This is illustrated in an empirical mixed-method study about decision-makers dealing with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea Coast and (re)insurance sector representatives. The study builds on interviews and workshops with potential users of extreme event attribution. It reveals that there are three main groups of criteria which matter most to the stakeholders in question: 1) trustworthiness, 2) context-sensitivity and decision-relevance, 3) clarity and comprehensibility. Having appropriate evaluation categories, as well as processes to identify stakeholder-specific criteria, will facilitate the inclusion of values, knowledge contexts, and interests. Many stakeholders emphasized that they need a trustworthy knowledge broker who provides decision-oriented information which is intuitively accessible, understandable, and in their mother tongue. Being independent, scientifically competent, and in a continuous dialogue with both scientists and stakeholders, established regional and sector-specific climate services can facilitate the fulfilment of these requirements. A stakeholder-oriented evaluation will thereby help to make climate services more useful to potential user groups – even if a product is not in use yet, as is the case for extreme event attribution products.
Źródło:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2018, 6, 1; 27-35
2299-3835
2353-5652
Pojawia się w:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
EU-CIRCLE : A pan-European framework for strengthening critical infrastructure resilience to climate change Project taxonomy and methodology – Climate-weather change terminology and methodology
Autorzy:
Blokus-Roszkowska, A.
Kołowrocki, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068903.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate change
extreme weather event
climate-weather state
climate-weather change process
Opis:
The paper presents climate-weather change terminology, selected from the fourth chapter of the report prepared in the scope of the EU-CIRCLE project. This project titled “A pan-European framework for strengthening Critical Infrastructure resilience to climate change – EU-CIRCLE” is realized under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. The improved terms and definitions coming from this chapter are presented. Moreover, methodology related to climate-weather change in the scope of project issues is introduced.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 217--230
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
EU-CIRCLE: A pan-European framework for strengthening critical infrastructure resilience to climate change Project taxonomy and methodology – Preliminaries
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068900.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
climate-weather change
resilience
Opis:
Introductory general approach to EU-CIRCLE project taxonomy and methodology is presented. National and international critical infrastructure protection overview is performed. The critical infrastructure protection legal frames in Poland, the institutions responsible for them and their duties are presented in details. A general approach to and a scheme of operation and climate-weather change influence on critical infrastructure safety and critical infrastructure accident consequences modelling is proposed as well.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 189--202
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for maritime ferry operating area
Autorzy:
Kuligowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068854.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
identification
prediction
maritime ferry operating area
Opis:
The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for maritime ferry operating area. For the considered ferry operating area, there are distinguished four different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climateweather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 129--134
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system operating area
Autorzy:
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068856.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
identification
prediction
piping operating area
extreme weather hazards
Opis:
The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system operating area. For the considered piping operating area, there are distinguished three different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 107--112
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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