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    Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5
    Tytuł:
    Analysis of climate change and its potential influence on energy performance of building and indoor temperatures, part 1: Climate change scenarios
    Analiza zmiany klimatu i jego wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku oraz temperatury wewnętrzne, część 1: Scenariusze zmian klimatu
    Autorzy:
    Firląg, Szymon
    Miszczuk, Artur
    Witkowski, Bartosz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1852390.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    zmiana klimatu
    parametr zewnętrzny
    scenariusz
    representative concentration pathways
    RCP
    temperatura powietrza
    wilgotność względna
    prędkość wiatru
    promieniowanie słoneczne
    climate change
    outdoor parameter
    scenario
    air temperature
    relative humidity
    wind speed
    solar radiation
    Opis:
    The subject of this paper is to analyse the climate change and its influence on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The research was made on the example of the city of Kielce, Poland. It was was carried out basing on the Municipal Adaptive Plan for the city of Kielce and climate data from the Ministry of Investment and Development.The predicted, future parameters of the climate were estimated using the tool Weather Shift for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The analysis took into consideration the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for years 2035 and 2065, representing different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Scenario RCP4.5represents possible, additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100, and RCP8.5 an additional 8.5 W/m2. The calculated parameters included average month values of temperature and relative humidity of outdoor air, wind velocity and solar radiation. The results confirmed the increase of outdoor temperature in the following year. The values of relative humidity do not change significantly for the winter months, while in the summer months decrease is visible. No major changes were spotted in the level of solar radiation or wind speed. Based on the calculated parameters dynamic building modelling was carried out using the TRNSYS software. The methodology and results of the calculations will be presented in the second part of the paper.
    Przedmiotem artykułu jest analiza zmiany klimatu oraz jej wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku i temperaturę wewnętrzną. Badania przeprowadzono na przykładzie miasta Kielce. Ich podstawą był Miejski Plan Adaptacyjny dla miasta Kielce oraz dane klimatyczne z Ministerstwa Inwestycji i Rozwoju. Przewidywane, przyszłe parametry klimatu zostały oszacowane za pomocą narzędzia Weather Shift dla Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). W analizie uwzględniono scenariusze RCP4.5 i RCP8.5 na lata 2035 i 2065, reprezentujące różne trajektorie wzrostu stężenia gazów cieplarnianych. Scenariusz RCP4.5 reprezentuje przewidywane, dodatkowe wymuszenie radiacyjne wynoszące 4,5 W/m2 w 2100 r., a RCP8.5 dodatkowe 8,5 W/m2. Wyznaczone parametry obejmowały średnie miesięczne wartości temperatury i wilgotności względnej powietrza zewnętrznego, prędkości wiatru i wielkości promieniowania słonecznego. Wyniki obliczeń potwierdziły wzrost temperatury zewnętrznej w kolejnych latach. Wartości wilgotności względnej powietrza nie zmieniają się znacząco dla miesięcy zimowych, natomiast w miesiącach letnich widoczny jest ich spadek. Nie zaobserwowano większych zmian w poziomie promieniowania słonecznego i prędkości wiatru. Na podstawie obliczonych parametrów przeprowadzono dynamiczne modelowanie budynku przy użyciu oprogramowania TRNSYS. Metodologia i wyniki obliczeń zostaną przedstawione w drugiej części artykułu.
    Źródło:
    Archives of Civil Engineering; 2021, 67, 3; 29-42
    1230-2945
    Pojawia się w:
    Archives of Civil Engineering
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset
    Autorzy:
    Danilovich, Irina
    Geyer, Beate
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2014153.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    meteorological observations
    projections
    scenario
    air temperature
    precipitation
    snow
    wind
    Opis:
    This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2021, 9, 1-2; 1-30
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Fifth IPCC Assessment Report now out
    Autorzy:
    Kundzewicz, Z.W.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/12000.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    IPCC zob.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    climate change
    climate change impact
    adaptation
    mitigation
    scenario
    projection
    climate system
    greenhouse
    gas emission
    Opis:
    The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.
    Źródło:
    Papers on Global Change; 2014, 21
    2300-8121
    1730-802X
    Pojawia się w:
    Papers on Global Change
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Forests, forestry and space management in climate change scenarios
    Autorzy:
    Paschalis-Jakubowicz, P.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/38335.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2009
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badawczy Leśnictwa
    Tematy:
    forest
    forestry
    space management
    climate change
    scenario
    rural development
    forest resource
    forest management
    Opis:
    The necessity to combine forest resource management with regional development is a social requirement. The halting of the forestry marginalization trend is the result, among other things, of the lack of strong links between forest management and local communities’ development, as well as the lack of a holistic approach to the space management principles. The paper analyses the causes and possibilities of solving forest, forestry and regional development problems.
    Źródło:
    Folia Forestalia Polonica. Series A . Forestry; 2009, 51, 1
    0071-6677
    Pojawia się w:
    Folia Forestalia Polonica. Series A . Forestry
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Impact of the projected climate change on soybean water needs in the Kuyavia region in Poland
    Autorzy:
    Kasperska-Wołowicz, Wiesława
    Rolbiecki, Stanisław
    Sadan, Hicran A.
    Rolbiecki, Roman
    Jagosz, Barbara
    Stachowski, Piotr
    Liberacki, Daniel
    Bolewski, Tymoteusz
    Prus, Piotr
    Pal-Fam, Ferenc
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2048516.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
    Tematy:
    climate change scenario
    crop water needs
    evapotranspiration
    Glycine max L. Merrill
    irrigation
    precipitation
    protein crops
    Opis:
    According to the SRES A1B climate change scenario, by the end of the 21st century temperature in Poland will increase by 2–4°C, no increase in precipitation totals is predicted. This will rise crop irrigation needs and necessity to develop irrigation systems. Due to increase in temperature and needs of sustainable agriculture development some changes in crop growing structure will occur. An increase interest in high protein crops cultivation has been noted last years and further extension of these acreage is foreseen. Identifying the future water needs of these plants is crucial for planning and implementing sustainable agricultural production. In the study, the impact of projected air temperaturę changes on soybean water needs, one of the most valuable high-protein crops, in 2021-2050 in the Kuyavia region in Poland was analysed. The calculations based on meteorological data collected in 1981-2010 were considered as the reference period. Potential evapotranspiration was adopted as a measure of crop water requirements. The potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the Penman–Monteith method and crop coefficient. Based on these estimations, it was found that in the forecast years the soybean water needs will increase by 5% in the growing period (from 21 April to 10 September), and by 8% in June-August. The highest monthly soybean water needs increase (by 15%) may occur in August. The predicted climate changes and the increase in the arable crops water requirements, may contribute to an increase in the irrigated area in the Kuyavia region and necessity of rational management of water resources.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Water and Land Development; 2021, 51; 199-207
    1429-7426
    2083-4535
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Water and Land Development
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5

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