- Tytuł:
- An algorithmic tool for supporting risk and root-cause analysis of critical incidents in Baltic Sea Region ports
- Autorzy:
- Malinowski, Jacek
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068693.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2019
- Wydawca:
- Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
- Tematy:
-
critical incident
cause-effect relation
cascade of events
initiating event
secondary event
stochastic modeling
Poisson process
risk analysis
root-cause analysis - Opis:
- This paper is both a summarization and extension of [6] and [7], where a stochastic model of interacting operations carried out in a generic Baltic Sea Region port was proposed and analyzed. Each operation involves a number of possible unwanted events (critical incidents) whose instances occur randomly and can cause instances of other events affecting this or other operations. This can lead to a cause-effect chain of events affecting one or multiple operations. The model presented in [6] is somewhat complex, therefore it was downgraded to a simpler, application-oriented version demonstrated in [7], where an algorithm computing the risks of critical incidents is constructed and then applied to a real-life example. The current paper, apart from presenting a method of computing the risks of critical incidents, occurring by themselves or resulting from the cascade effect, also features a method of root-cause analysis of such incidents. First, the formulas for the root-cause probabilities are derived, where such a probability quantifies the likelihood that a critical incident occurring in step h of a cascade was caused by another incident that initiated this cascade. Second, an algorithm computing the root-cause probabilities, based on the derived formulas, is constructed. This algorithm is illustrated by its application to the example given in [7]. The presented results can be used as a tool for fault propagation analysis and fault diagnosis applied not only to a port environment, but to any complex industrial system.
- Źródło:
-
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2019, 10, 1; 127--136
2084-5316 - Pojawia się w:
- Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł