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    Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5
    Tytuł:
    MAKING MOST OF MOVING AVERAGE MODELS DURING STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS – SELECTION OF THE MODEL AND TIME PERIOD
    Autorzy:
    Letkowski, Dariusz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/654255.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
    Tematy:
    investment
    moving average models
    Opis:
    Technical analysis rely on assumption that analysis of past market performance provides possibility for proper stock price forecasting, in particular by identification of buy and sell signals. The article describe main moving average models: simple moving average, weighted moving average and exponential moving average and manner of theirs usage while constructing investment strategy on financial market. The article outlines possibilities and limitations of moving averages usage in investment practice. In addition empirical verification of moving averages is provided for selected polish shares forming index WIG20.
    Źródło:
    Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2014, 2, 301
    0208-6018
    2353-7663
    Pojawia się w:
    Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Best Time Series In-sample Model for Forecasting Nigeria Exchange Rate
    Autorzy:
    Gaddafi, Adamu Babali
    Akpensuen, Shiaondo Henry
    Shitu, Abdulrazaq Ahmed
    Malle, Ahmad Atiku
    Adamu, Muhammed
    Bukar, Muhammad Goni
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1031300.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
    Tematy:
    ARIMA
    Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
    Autoregressive Moving Average Model
    Autoregressive models
    Box-Jenkins Methodology
    CBN
    Exchange rate
    Model
    Moving Average Models
    Nigeria
    Opis:
    In this work we considered data on official Nigeria exchange rates (Naira to British Pound sterling) from January 2003 to December 2019. Four competing models ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (2, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 2) were identified for the exchange rates series. Diagnostic analysis revealed that all the competing models adequately represent the exchange rate series. However, on the basis of out-of-sample model selection and evaluation ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was selected as the optimal model with minimum information criteria for the exchange rate series. A 24 months forecast indicates that the Naira will continue to depreciate. The policy implication of our study is that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), should devalue the Naira in order to not only re-establish exchange rate stability but also encourage local manufacturing and encourage foreign capital inflows.
    Źródło:
    World Scientific News; 2021, 151; 45-63
    2392-2192
    Pojawia się w:
    World Scientific News
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Process of market strategy optimization using distributed computing systems
    Autorzy:
    Nowicki, W.
    Bera, A.
    Błaszyński, P.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407280.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    economic systems
    financial system
    moving average models
    optimization problems
    performance analysis
    prediction methods
    prediction problems
    project management
    work organization
    Opis:
    If market repeatability is assumed, it is possible with some real probability to deduct short term market changes by making some calculations. The algorithm, based on logical and statistically reasonable scheme to make decisions about opening or closing position on a market, is called an automated strategy. Due to market volatility, all parameters are changing from time to time, so there is need to constantly optimize them. This article describes a team organization process when researching market strategies. Individual team members are merged into small groups, according to their responsibilities. The team members perform data processing tasks through a cascade organization, providing solutions to speed up work related to the use of remote computing resources. They also work out how to store results in a suitable way, according to the type of task, and facilitate the publication of a large amount of results.
    Źródło:
    Management and Production Engineering Review; 2015, 6, 4; 87-93
    2080-8208
    2082-1344
    Pojawia się w:
    Management and Production Engineering Review
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Wykorzystanie metody moving block bootstrap w prognozowaniu szeregów czasowych z wahaniami okresowymi
    The Use of the Moving Block Bootstrap Method in Periodic Time Series Forecasting
    Autorzy:
    Kończak, Grzegorz
    Miłek, Michał
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/586452.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
    Tematy:
    Analiza szeregów czasowych
    Metody statystyczne
    Modele ARIMA
    Prognozowanie matematyczne
    Szeregi czasowe
    Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models
    Mathematical forecasting
    Statistical methods
    Time-series
    Time-series analysis
    Opis:
    The aim of the analysis of the time series is, among others, to facilitate the formulation of prognosis. The basis for the inference of the future variables are their future realizations. There are various methods used in time series forecasting, such as for example naïve method, Holt-Winters models, ARIMA models and various simulation methods. One of the most popular and widely used simulation method in statistical research is the bootstrap method proposed by B. Efron. It is usually applied in measuring the estimates of the variance and testing the hypotheses in cases when the distribution of the test statistic is unknown. This method does not require for the selected samples to be from the standard normal distribution population. Due to the construction of the random samples in this method, there is usually no possibility to directly apply it in the analysis of the periodic time series. In the literature written on this subject, there are the proposals to introduce some modifications to the bootstrap method that would provide the possibility to conduct such analyses. One of such methods is the moving block bootstrap. In the present essay, we will present the proposal to apply this method to create the confidential intervals for the periodic time series forecasts. The results gathered by applying that method are compared with the results obtained via the classic construction of the confidential intervals for the forecasts and on the confidential intervals based on ARIMA models.
    Źródło:
    Studia Ekonomiczne; 2014, 203; 91-100
    2083-8611
    Pojawia się w:
    Studia Ekonomiczne
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Application of the Moving Average Method of Simplifying Simulation of Random Fields
    Autorzy:
    Maciejewski, S.
    Gorczewska-Langner, W.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/241480.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2006
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Budownictwa Wodnego PAN
    Tematy:
    stochastic models
    multidimensional random variable
    moving average
    transport phenomena in soil
    Opis:
    A method of simulating random fields using a moving average is proposed in this paper. Random fields were simulated for different sizes of sub-field and different numbers of cycles of calculations of the moving average. For the fields obtained the covariance function was analyzed. In order to estimate the efficiency of the proposed simulation method of random field based on the method of diagonal covariance matrix was performed. It is shown that two of the simulation methods presented are able to generate a multidimensional random variable with required correlation function. However, the method of diagonal covariance matrix has some limitations caused by the size of the simulated random field, which result from the necessity of converting a relatively large matrix. Using the proposed simulation method it is possible to simulate, in a comparatively quick and simple manner, a random field with a large number of nodes on PC-s. The presented method can be useful in the stochastic analysis of transport phenomena in soil.
    Źródło:
    Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics; 2006, 53, 2; 126-136
    1231-3726
    Pojawia się w:
    Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5

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