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Wyszukujesz frazę "Military forecasting" wg kryterium: Temat


Wyświetlanie 1-12 z 12
Tytuł:
Poland in NATO – Some Geopolitical and Praxiological Remarks
Autorzy:
Szałek, Benon Zbigniew
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2031829.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014-12-31
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
Tematy:
praxiology
geopolitics
NATO
military alliances
political and military forecasting
Opis:
This paper presents some remarks on the situation of Poland in NATO. The problem of ‘predictability’ is analysed on the basis of a simple scheme (system, its environment, their interactions). The geopolitical analysis of this dynamic model leads to the conclusion that the future cannot be described as highly predictable, although some long-term scenarios seem to be relatively plausible and may be used in the construction of more realistic global and national/ regional strategies. The results of this analysis suggest global cooperation and regional integration.
Źródło:
Reality of Politics; 2014, 5; 95-121
2082-3959
Pojawia się w:
Reality of Politics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A data mining approach to improve military demand forecasting
Autorzy:
Thiagarajan, R.
Rahman, M.
Gossink, N.
Calbert, G.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/91684.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Społeczna Akademia Nauk w Łodzi. Polskie Towarzystwo Sieci Neuronowych
Tematy:
critical stocks
demand
forecasting
military operation
military planning
military supplies
autocorrelated
cross-correlated
data mining
Opis:
Accurately forecasting the demand of critical stocks is a vital step in the planning of a military operation. Demand prediction techniques, particularly autocorrelated models, have been adopted in the military planning process because a large number of stocks in the military inventory do not have consumption and usage rates per platform (e.g., ship). However, if an impending military operation is (significantly) different from prior campaigns then these prediction models may under or over estimate the demand of critical stocks leading to undesired operational impacts. To address this, we propose an approach to improve the accuracy of demand predictions by combining autocorrelated predictions with cross-correlated demands of items having known per-platform usage rates. We adopt a data mining approach using sequence rule mining to automatically determine crosscorrelated demands by assessing frequently co-occurring usage patterns. Our experiments using a military operational planning system indicate a considerable reduction in the prediction errors across several categories of military supplies.
Źródło:
Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Research; 2014, 4, 3; 205-214
2083-2567
2449-6499
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wars in the later 21st century: Forecast developments in the methods of warfare
Autorzy:
Górnikiewicz, Marcin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/576523.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019-12-24
Wydawca:
Akademia Sztuki Wojennej
Tematy:
forecasting
future warfare
military technologies
dual-use technologies
hostilities
Opis:
This paper attempts to forecast the future of warfare methods in the forthcoming decades of the 21st century. The predictions reflect on the current trends observed in the development of military and civil (dual-use) technologies and changes in thought constructs developed for hostilities. The methods of warfare at the turn of the 21st century are likely to reflect the technological evolution of the modern age. Considering the present-day trends, there is a good probability that our technology-driven lives will transform people into hybrids of biological organisms merged with the technological environment, integrated with the body. Therefore, hostile action against human soldiers could be taken on three major levels: the biological organism, the mass communication technology integrated into the body, and the mental level – both in the conscious and the subconscious sphere. The study into how the soldier’s mental sphere can be influenced to anticipate and shape behaviours may contribute to further research on the third level impact on enemy soldiers. The conclusions formulated in this analysis may carry significant implications for the works on an innovative methodology of the future warfare, accounting for the technological progress in the next decades of the 21st century, and a methodology for countering future military threats.
Źródło:
Security and Defence Quarterly; 2019, 27, 5; 21-31
2300-8741
2544-994X
Pojawia się w:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of ARIMA Models for the Analysis of Utilization Process of Military Technical Objects
Autorzy:
Borucka, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/503736.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Międzynarodowa Wyższa Szkoła Logistyki i Transportu
Tematy:
aircraft
forecasting
ARIMA models
military data analysis
data quality issue
Opis:
The newest solutions in Polish Armed Forces are implemented gradually and focus mainly on soldiers’ combat readiness. Many concurrent processes occur, for which proper analysis and interpretation could constitute command process and task realization support; however poor and standing (paper) record seems to be an obstacle in their modelling. Therefore the author of the article tried to depict the process of military technical objects exploitation based on archived data according to present methods of documents preparation, circuit and record, applicable in Polish Armed Forces. Based on that, the method of research the readiness of aircraft ships from military air base, powered by ARIMA model, was proposed. Using empirical data of two years of exploitation, the identification of researched time series, and then a few models estimation was made. Finally, the best model was chosen and verified.
Źródło:
Logistics and Transport; 2018, 37, 1; 13-22
1734-2015
Pojawia się w:
Logistics and Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Prognozowanie strat techniki wojsk lądowych
Forecasting technology for military trips
Autorzy:
Brzeziński, Marian
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1385460.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne
Tematy:
bezpieczeństwo
technika wojskowa
strata
prognozowanie
security
military technology
loss
forecasting
Opis:
Cele artykułu jest zaproponowanie metody prognozowania strat techniki wojsk lądowych z wykorzystaniem aparatu analitycznego rachunku prawdopodobieństwa. Przedstawiono analizę strat technicznych wojsk lądowych w działaniach bojowych, istotę prognozowania strat technicznych oraz zastosowanie rozkładu Weibulla do prognozowania strat technicznych w działaniach bojowych wojsk lądowych.
The goal of the article is to propose a method for predicting losses of land forces techniques using the probability theory analytical device. The analysis of technical losses of land forces in combat operations, the essence of forecasting technical losses and the use of the Weibull distribution to forecast technical losses in combat operations of ground troops are presented.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka; 2019, 5; 103-115
1231-2037
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Forecasting of Military Expenditure in Saudi Arabia in Terms of Military Security
Autorzy:
Kozicki, Bartosz
Zelkowski, Jarosław
Mitkow, Szymon
Gontarczyk, Mariusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2120092.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-06-30
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
Tematy:
expenditure
forecasting
Russian and Saudi Arabian policy
COVID-19
military security
Opis:
The study attempts to forecast military expenditure in Saudi Arabia for 2020. The research began with a comparative analysis of military expenditure in Saudi Arabia and Russia between 2000–2019. For this purpose, bar charts were used on which the calculated values of the dynamics indices with a fixed (2000) and movable (previous year) base of the considered primary data were outlined. The study was preceded by constructing a multiple regression model to evaluate the impact of the increase in military expenditure in Russia on Saudi Arabia. This model shows that as military spending in Russia increases by one million dollars, military spending in Saudi Arabia increases by $ 0.085 million. Then, data on the expenditure incurred by both analyzed countries in 2020, obtained from various internet sources, was outlined. Their analysis made it possible to select only qualitative methods in the form of expert opinions for the forecast. Saudi Arabia's military expenditure forecast was $ 57 500 million.
Źródło:
Polish Political Science Yearbook; 2022, 2 (51); 61-68
0208-7375
Pojawia się w:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Scenario Design of Danish and Norwegian Military Engagement in Africa
Projektowanie scenariusza duńskiego oraz norweskiego wojskowego zaangażowania w Afryce
Autorzy:
Rdzanek, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2139628.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-10-09
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Naukowe Dolnośląskiej Szkoły Wyższej
Tematy:
Dania
Norwegia
prognozowanie
zagraniczna pomoc wojskowa
scenariusz
zaangażowanie wojskowe
Denmark
Norway
forecasting
foreign military assistance
scenario
military engagement
Opis:
The aim of the article is to develop and propose effective scenario-building methods regarding the scale and nature of Danish and Norwegian military involvement in selected regions of Africa (Western Africa, Sahel, Horn of Africa) over the next 3–4 years. The adopted time frames result from the planning cycles of defence and security strategy of the analysed Nordic states. The subject of analyses will be the security support provided by Denmark and Norway for selected African countries (Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria) through two forms of using the armed forces. Participation of Danish and Norwegian military contingents in crisis management and peace support activities – as first. Secondly, direct military assistance addressed to selected countries in order to establish national and regional security systems and rebuild defence capabilities will be reviewed. This study will aim to develop an optimal forecasting methodology of future Danish and Norwegian influence on chosen African countries through the use of military instruments over a specified time horizon. The construction of optimal methods for scenario design requires knowledge about the doctrine of international involvement of the armed forces, action strategies, procedures for the selection of forces, and military assets designated to achieve the assumed goals. The appropriate scenarios methodology shall include aspects of both states' future foreign military policy in selected regions of Africa. The following are the scale of involvement, the instruments of influence, strategic and tactical goals, the military means, institutional levels of cooperation, direct benefits from protecting both Nordic states' vital interests in a given region.
Celem artykułu jest opracowanie efektywnych narzędzi i odpowiedniej metodologii budowy scenariusza dotyczących skali oraz charakteru zaangażowania Danii i Norwegii w wybranych regionach Afryki (Afryka Zachodnia, Sahel, róg Afryki) w perspektywie 3–4 lat. Chodzi przy tym o zaangażowanie z wykorzystaniem instrumentów militarnych oraz w formie interwencji wojskowych. Autor dąży do zidentyfikowania możliwych metod prognozowania skali oraz charakteru pomocy Danii i Norwegii w zakresie bezpieczeństwa dla wybranych państw, takich jak Kamerun, Ghana, Kenia, Mali, Nigeria. Analizie poddane zostały zarówno możliwości udziału duńskich czy norweskich kontyngentów ekspedycyjnych w działaniach o charakterze zarządzania kryzysowego oraz wsparcia pokoju, jak i czynniki determinujące bezpośrednią pomoc wojskową dla tych afrykańskich państw w formie współpracy dwustronnej w celu wzmocnienia ich bezpieczeństwa. W tekście przedstawiono czynniki determinujące politykę wojskową Danii i Norwegii wobec wybranych państw Afryki, które powinny zostać uwzględnione w procesie prognostycznym. Artykuł stanowi swoistą propozycję dotyczącą metodologii prognozowania średnio-terminowej aktywności wojskowej dwóch państw nordyckich w Afryce.
Źródło:
Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego; 2021, 15, 1; 71-92
1896-8848
2450-3436
Pojawia się w:
Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security
Autorzy:
Kozicki, Bartosz
Zelkowski, Jarosław
Mitkow, Szymon
Gontarczyk, Mariusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2020137.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-12-31
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
Tematy:
human resources policy
forecasting
the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia
Russia’s policy
military security
Opis:
The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.
Źródło:
Polish Political Science Yearbook; 2021, 4 (50); 149-158
0208-7375
Pojawia się w:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-12 z 12

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