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Tytuł:
GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS FOR PRECIOUS METALS RETURNS
Autorzy:
Krawiec, Monika
Górska, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453610.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
precious metals
stationarity
Granger causality
Opis:
The aim of the paper was examining Granger causality between rates of return of precious metals. The study covers the period from 2008 through 2013 and includes gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. After developing statistical analysis and confirming stationarity of time series under consideration, the Granger causality test was run. Its results revealed a bilateral causation between silver and platinum rates of return. The study also detected causal relationships flowing from gold and palladium rates of return to silver returns.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2015, 16, 2; 13-22
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Co-movements of NAFTA stock markets: Granger‑causality analysis
Autorzy:
Folfas, Paweł
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/557673.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016-03-30
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu
Tematy:
NAFTA, stock markets, Granger-causality
Opis:
The paper scrutinizes the causal relationship between performance of American, Canadian and Mexican stock markets. It is aimed at answering the question as to whether there is a one way or two way causal link between the performance of stock markets (or possibly no causality at all) in the case of NAFTA members during 1992–1993 (pre-NAFTA period) and 1994–2013 (NAFTA in force). The study finds bivariate Granger causality for American and Canadian indexes in the periods: 1980–1988 and 1994–2013. Additionally the American index Granger-caused Mexican index during all the included periods, apart from 1992–1993, but the Canadian index did not Granger-cause the Mexican index at all. Moreover the Mexican index was a Granger-cause of the Canadian index in years 1994–2013 and a Granger-cause of the American index during period 1992–1993.
Źródło:
Economics and Business Review; 2016, 2(16), 1; 53-65
2392-1641
Pojawia się w:
Economics and Business Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Egzogeniczność mierników szoków technologicznych na przykładzie Polski w latach 2005-2009
Exogenous Measures of Technology Shocks as Used in Poland in 2005-2009
Autorzy:
Truskolaski, Szymon
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575419.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010-06-30
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:
productivity
Solow residual
Granger causality test
Opis:
The paper describes methods for measuring technology shocks and compares various indirect measures of technology shocks, including the so-called Solow residual and its modifications. Apart from the conventional Solow residual, the author uses modified indicators to illustrate changes in factors of production; he approximates productivity by analyzing electricity consumption (capital) and the number of hours worked and work accidents (labor). The main criterion used by the author to check if a technology shock measure is correct is its autonomy (exogeneity) from non-technology shocks that may occur in the economy, such as monetary shocks, fiscal shocks or external shocks. Truskolaski uses the Granger causality test to determine if each version of the residual is independent from non-technology shock variables. The test was conducted for 12 industries making up Poland’s manufacturing sector in 2005-2009. The conventional residual is independent from non-technology shocks in low-tech sectors, Truskolaski says. In high- and medium-high-tech sectors, on the other hand, corrections linked with the variable use of factors of production are far more important, according to the author. In terms of independence from non-technology shocks, the best measure is a residual used to estimate changes in both factors of production, capital and labor, Truskolaski concludes.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2010, 240, 5-6; 61-72
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Testing the Granger causality for commodity mutual funds in Poland and commodity prices
Autorzy:
Krawiec, Monika
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/452937.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
commodity prices
commodity mutual funds
Granger causality
Opis:
The recent increase in commodity price levels has resulted in the launch of a number of new commodity funds also in Poland. Since these funds do not have long quotation records, the study designed to answer the question whether changes in prices of commodities on world markets Granger-cause changes in quotations of participation units in specialized commodity funds in Poland, must have been limited to a 3-year-period. It includes 8 commodity funds, 11 commodities and 2 stock indices. Their log-returns constitute the base for calculating some descriptive statistics, testing for normality and stationarity. In order to achieve the goal of the research the Granger causality test is adopted. Its results exhibit Granger causality between commodity returns and majority of commodity fund returns, whereas in only few cases there is Granger causality running from stock indices returns to commodity funds returns.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2012, 13, 2; 84-95
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Influence of selected factors on the volume of consumption (per capita) of Uruguay - in the sense of Granger causality
Autorzy:
Kraińska, Agata
Kraiński, Karol
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1190066.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Tematy:
Granger causality
Dickey Fuller test
Uruguay
consumption
Opis:
The project will be tested State Uruguay. The country is characterized by political stability, economic attractiveness of tax-free zones for investors, and also has a good infrastructure, communication network, as well as one of the best education systems in their continent. The aim of the study is to verify whether the selected factors affect the volume of consumption (per unit) in Uruguay. Selected factors are investment (per capita), imports (per capita), exports (per capita), government spending (per capita) and the level of consumer prices. Individual data are annual data, and analysis period in the years 1950-2009. Audit of Granger causality indicates that the inclusion of the individual regression equations delayed variables can better explain and predict the evolution of the size of consumption in Uruguay.
Źródło:
World Scientific News; 2016, 51; 36-46
2392-2192
Pojawia się w:
World Scientific News
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The role of agriculture in poverty reduction in Nigeria: an empirical perspective
Autorzy:
Omotayo, Olayemi Henry
Ayomitunde, Aderemi Timothy
Omolola, Ojelade Lydia
Georgina, Adebayo Abiola
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1375498.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Międzynarodowy Instytut Innowacji Nauka – Edukacja – Rozwój w Warszawie
Tematy:
Agriculture
Poverty
DOLS
Granger Causality and Nigeria
Opis:
Abstract In Nigeria, several advocacies have been raised in different fora over time that agriculture is capable of reducing poverty in the country. An attempt to empirically validate the above argument has generated a policy mix in the literature. Therefore, further empirical investigation about this subject matter becomes imperative. Consequently, the study utilized the DOLS and Granger Causality Approach to address the objective of this study. However, the principal findings that emerged in this study are as follows: in the long run, there is a significant positive relationship between the employment in agriculture and poverty level, inflation rate and poverty level have a negative relationship with each other. Meanwhile, agricultural output causes a significant reduction in the poverty level. Also, one-way feedback relationship runs from agricultural output to the poverty level in the country. Based on the findings that originated in this study, this paper makes the following recommendations for the policymakers, future researchers and all the stakeholders in the agricultural sector in Nigeria that agricultural output has the capacity to reduce poverty level in the country. This implies that when poverty reduction is the target of the policymakers in the country, manipulating agricultural output will induce the reduction in poverty level in the long run. Also the government should possess political goodwill to revamp agricultural sector.
Źródło:
International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences; 2019, 9(1); 251-262
2450-2146
2451-1064
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Destabilizing intervention in EU dairy markets
Autorzy:
Olipra, Jakub Mieczysław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1902573.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-04-02
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
CAP
intervention
butter
SMP
dairy
Granger causality
Opis:
Butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP) are considered to be primary dairy commodities as they enable storage of fat and protein. The spread between butter and SMP prices in the European Union (EU) has been stable for many years. However, in 2016, butter prices suddenly increased to reach extremely high levels while SMP prices remained low. As a consequence, the price spread between milk fat and protein has surged, leading to severe imbalance in the EU dairy market. Some professionals argue that the main reason for this occurrence are large intervention stocks of SMP accumulated by the European Commission (EC) which weigh on prices. Nevertheless, no one has yet proved the existence of a causal relationship between the intervention stocks accumulated by the EC and the butter/SMP price spread. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to test that hypothesis. The causality between the EC intervention stocks and the butter/SMP price spread was tested using the Granger causality approach. The results show that the difference between butter and SMP intervention stocks accumulated by the EC Granger-causes the butter/SMP price spread while there is no causality in the opposite direction, which supports the hypothesis tested.
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2020, 55, 1; 73-83
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Causality analysis between stock market indices
Autorzy:
Sekuła, Paweł
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/947589.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
stock market
cointegration
Granger causality
financial crisis
Opis:
The paper examines relationships between selected stock market indices in Western Europe, Central Europe, and the United States. The study focuses on two periods, from January 1998 to August 2006 and from September 2006 to December 2016. The first one includes stock quotes from before the financial crisis while the second one covers the crisis and changes in the economic situation in post-crisis years. Relationships between stock market indices in developed economies were more frequent and durable than in Central Europe, although they were subject to changes. In our investigation into Granger causality relationships we observed changes in these relationships and in their direction for stock markets in Central Europe, while bidirectional relationships between indices in developed economies remained stable over time. Changes in relationships between indices, in particular long- -term interdependences, may result from the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. The increased number of causality relationships for the markets in Central Europe may testify to the advancing integration of the EU common market.
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2019, 24, 1; 74-93
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Financial and economic development link in transitional economies: a spectral Granger causality analysis 1991-2017
Autorzy:
Skare, Marinko
Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19087539.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
financial development
economic growth
transition
spectral Granger causality
Opis:
Research background: The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been attracting attention in the field of economics since the times of the "great moderation". Previous empirical studies still fail to put forward a general conclusion on whether and how financial development affects economic growth. This is particularly true due to the lack of empirical research on the matter in question for countries in transition. Purpose of the article: This study aims to contribute to bridging the gap in the financial development-growth nexus in transitional economies. Understanding the mechanism behind financial development and economic growth should assist policymakers in the design of efficient economic policies or avoiding/alleviating financial cycles. Methods: Using Granger causality test in frequency domain, which shows to have more power over standard time domain Granger causality test, as well as gross domestic product (GDP) and the monetary base (M2 - intermediate money), we investigated the finance-growth relationship in 19 Central, East, and Southeast European countries (CESEE) from 1991 to 2017. Findings & Value added: Study results show that financial development is important for growth in CESEE countries, thus supporting the "supply-leading" theories in general for countries in the sample. Our findings indicate that the relationship between financial development and economic growth exists in CESEE countries (with one exception - the Czech Republic) ranging from unidirectional (Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Belarus, Estonia, Macedonia, Russia, Turkey), to bi-directional spectral Granger causality (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Ukraine).
Źródło:
Oeconomia Copernicana; 2019, 10, 1; 7-35
2083-1277
Pojawia się w:
Oeconomia Copernicana
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Foreign direct investment inflows and regulation in Nigeria: an empirical perspective
Autorzy:
Ayomitunde, Aderemi Timothy
Olubunmi, Amusa Bolanle
Lanke B, Awomailo
Omotayo, Olayemi Henry
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1375477.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Międzynarodowy Instytut Innowacji Nauka – Edukacja – Rozwój w Warszawie
Tematy:
FDI
Regulation
DOLS
Cointegration
Granger Causality and Nigeria
Opis:
The aim of this study is to examine the long run equilibrium relationship between regulation and FDI inflows in Nigeria over the period of 1990 to 2016 which past studies have failed to explore. Consequently, the study utilized data from UNCTAD, World Bank database, CBN Statistical Bulletin and Cointegration, DOLS and Granger Causality approach was used to address the objective of this study. However, the major findings in this study are summarized as follows. Government effectiveness, rule of law and inflation rate have a significant positive relationship with FDI inflows in Nigeria in the long run, apart from regulation quality that is not significant. This implies that regulation is favorable to the inflows of cross border investment in the country. In addition, there is a unidirectional feedback relationship which runs from FDI inflows to regulation quality and one way feedback relationship runs from the rule of law to government effective-ness in the country. Finally, due to the findings that emerged from this study, the following recommendations are made for the policy makers, investors and future researchers in Nigeria that when attraction of FDI inflows are the target of the policy makers in the country, improving variables like rule of law, government effectiveness and regulation quality will induce the inflows of cross border investment accordingly in the long run. Also, the Nigerian government should be committed to the provision of a sound business environment in the form of good government regulations to ensure rapid inflows of FDI in the country.
Źródło:
International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences; 2019, 9(1); 155-166
2450-2146
2451-1064
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The minimum wage in Poland and its connection to unemployment: Evaluating causality
Płaca minimalna w Polsce a bezrobocie i zatrudnienie. Ocena przyczynowości
Autorzy:
Sikora, Artur
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1394091.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-06-30
Wydawca:
Małopolska Wyższa Szkoła Ekonomiczna w Tarnowie
Tematy:
labour market
causality
Granger causality
Toda-Yamamoto approach
minimum wage
Opis:
The paper’s primary goal is the evaluation of the relationship between minimum wage, employment, and unemployment in Poland in the past two decades. It presents an overview of theoretical aspects of minimum wages, the main motivations behind its implementation, as well as potential negative consequences. The minimum wage in Poland is presented in comparison to other European Union countries. Finally, using a Toda-Yamamoto approach and quarterly data covering the years 2002–2019, the Granger causality between the Kaitz index and selected labour market indicators is examined. The results indicate the presence of unidirectional Granger causality between the Kaitz index and the general unemployment rate. It does not indicate similar relationships for other examined indicators, including employment rate and youth unemployment rate.
Celem artykułu jest ocena zależności między wynagrodzeniem minimalnym, zatrudnieniem i bezrobociem w Polsce. Przedstawiono przegląd teoretycznych aspektów płacy minimalnej, głównych motywacji za jej stosowaniem, a także potencjalnych negatywnych konsekwencji. Płaca minimalna w Polsce zostaje przedstawiona na tle innych krajów Unii Europejskiej. Wykorzystując metodę Toda-Yamamoto oraz dane kwartalne GUS i ILOSTAT obejmujące lata 2002–2019, zbadano przyczynowość Grangera między indeksem Kaitza a wybranymi wskaźnikami rynku pracy. Wyniki wskazują na istnienie jednokierunkowej przyczynowości Grangera między wskaźnikiem Kaitza a ogólną stopą bezrobocia. Nie wykryto podobnych zależności w przypadku pozostałych badanych wskaźników, w tym między innymi stopy zatrudnienia i stopy bezrobocia wśród osób młodych.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie; 2021, 50, 2; 65-77
1506-2635
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
An empirical analysis of Malaysian palm oil export to world main palm oil importing countries : evidence from a panel cointegration model
Autorzy:
Hassan, Nur Ain Mohd
Zakaria, Kalsom
Salleh, Kamalrudin Mohamed
Ahmad, Siti Mashani
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2204095.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
panel cointegration
FMOLS
palm oil export
Granger causality
Opis:
The paper explores the long-term causal relationships of Malaysian palm oil exports with the real effective exchange rate of the respective importing countries, palm oil consumption, vegetable oil production, and GDP growth. The study applied panel cointegration and causality approaches based on data from 10 main palm oil importing countries between 2004 and 2018. The impacts of economic growth, the effective real exchange rate, and the production of other vegetable oils by the main palm oil importing countries on Malaysian palm oil exports were found to be negative. However, palm oil consumption by the main palm oil importers was found to be a statistically significant positive determinant of Malaysian palm oil exports. This finding indicates that consumption has a direct positive effect on the demand for exports. A panel Granger causality analysis revealed a unidirectional causality between importing countries’ production of other vegetable oils and Malaysian exports of palm oil.
Źródło:
Operations Research and Decisions; 2023, 33, 1; 61--73
2081-8858
2391-6060
Pojawia się w:
Operations Research and Decisions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
An analysis of causal relationship between economic growth and financial development for Turkey: A MODWT-Granger causality test
Autorzy:
Abar, Hayri
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2131143.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-10-07
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu
Tematy:
economic growth
Granger causality
wavelet transform
financial development
Opis:
This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in different time horizons for Turkey. In this study an ensemble of wavelet analysis and Granger causality test were used. PSC was used to represent financial development and GDP was used to represent growth. The annual data used are for the period 1961–2018. The result obtained for a one year period shows that the demand-following hypothesis is valid for Turkey. Financial development is the Granger cause of growth and positively affects growth. The financial sector should be supported for growth in the short term. While there is no causal relationship for the 2–4 year period, bidirectional causality relationships were determined for the periods of 4–8 years, 8–16 years and 16–32 years. Because variables are a Granger cause of each other and affect each other in a positive direction supporting the financial sector is a preferable policy when the purpose is to achieve growth in the long run.
Źródło:
Economics and Business Review; 2022, 8, 3; 59-81
2392-1641
Pojawia się w:
Economics and Business Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A ONE-WAY OR TWO-WAY RELATIONSHIP?
Autorzy:
Kordalska, Aleksandra
Olczyk, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/517393.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
Global Competitiveness Index
economic growth
panel Granger causality test
Opis:
The Global Competitiveness Index is treated as a standard to measure the competitiveness of countries. Leaders look at it to make policy and resource allocation decisions, because global competitiveness is expected to be related to economic growth. However, studies which analyze the empirical relationship between these two economic categories are very rare. It is still an open question in the literature whether economic growth can be used to predict future global competitiveness or the other way round. This paper empirically tests the relationship between the GCI and the economic growth rate by using a panel Granger causality analysis based on annual data for 114 countries divided into five groups by income criteria and covering the period 2006-2014. We confirm a strong unidirectional causality among the countries analyzed, i.e. GDP growth causes global competitiveness. Additionally, we find that the GCI is successful in predicting economic growth for the majority low income and OCED high income counties, but among the middle income countries this relationship exists only for large economies such as China and India.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2016, 11, 1; 121-142
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria
Autorzy:
Amassoma, Ditimi
Sunday, Keji
Onyedikachi, Emma-Ebere
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522429.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Central Bank of Nigeria
Error correction model
Granger causality
Opis:
Aim/purpose – The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria. The study was borne out of the curiosity to reexamine the immediate cause of the alarming rate of inflation in Nigeria which is adversely affecting the general welfare of Nigerian populace. Design/methodology/approach – The study employed co-integration test and error correction approach on annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2016 to ascertain both the long run and short run dynamics relationship among the variables under consideration. Findings – The results showed that money supply does not considerably influence inflation both in the long and short run possibly because the country is in recession. The error correction model has the correct sign of negative and it is significant meaning that about 21% of the errors are corrected yearly. The Granger causality outcome demonstrates that, there is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period and vice-versa. Research implications/limitations – The implication of this is often that there are different economic conditions which are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should diversify the economy, minimise importation by encouraging local production of products and services. The Central Bank of Nigeria should guarantee an exchange rate policy that is essentially determined by the state of the economy and not by speculators being a net importation economy. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria should look inwards into the current interest rate and see how it can be regulated in such a way that will encourage private and foreign investors to be able to invest in the country. This in turn, successively increases income, infrastructure development and economic growth at large. Originality/value/contribution – This paper has been able to confirm that money supply is not a key factor that trigger up inflation in Nigeria.
Źródło:
Journal of Economics and Management; 2018, 31; 5-23
1732-1948
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Economics and Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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