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    Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5
    Tytuł:
    Models, manifestation and attribution of climate change
    Autorzy:
    von Storch, H.
    Bray, D.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108472.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    survey
    climate change
    models
    climate scientist
    Opis:
    Results from a series of five surveys among five groups of international climate scientists about their evaluation of elements of climate models and of climate change are presented. The first survey was done in 1996, the latest in 2015/16. Thus, our snapshots of the opinions of climate scientists cover 20 years. The results describe a strong increase in agreement concerning issues of manifestation of climate change, i.e., that the warming is real and not influenced by changing measuring and reporting practices, and concerning attribution of this ongoing climate change to ongoing anthropogenic causes. On the other hand, the evaluation of the climate models has changed little in the past 20 years. There are still significant reservations with the models ability to incorporate clouds and to describe rainfall. Obviously the growing conviction of ongoing man-made climate change is based on a variety of explanations, with modelling not being the predominant line of evidence. We suggest that it may be the repeated assessments by the IPCC, based on paleoclimatic evidence and stringent statistical analysis of the instrumental record which have led to the growing consensus of the warming and its causation. We stress that the presented results concern the opinion of climate scientists with a rather broad background. Our results do not assess if the opinions of the surveyed scientists are “valid” or “right”, but they recognize the character of science being a social process.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2017, 5, 1; 47-52
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Toward downscaling oceanic hydrodynamics - suitability of a high-resolution OGCM for describing regional ocean variability in the South China Sea
    Autorzy:
    Zhang, M.
    von Storch, H.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48028.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
    Tematy:
    hydrodynamics
    satellite observation
    sea surface
    STORM project
    South China Sea
    variability
    coastal upwelling
    Opis:
    We suggest to transfer the empirical downscaling methodology, which was developed mostly for atmospheric dynamics and impacts, to regional ocean problems. The major problem for doing so is the availability of decades-long and homogeneous and spatially detailed data sets. We have examined the performance of the STORM multidecadal simulation, which was run on a 0.18 grid and forced with 1950—2010 NCEP re-analyses, in the South China Sea and found the data suitable. For demonstration we build with this STORM-data downscaling model for the regional throughflow. The STORM data is compared with AVISO satellite observations and the ocean re-analysis dataset C-GLORS. We find the seasonal patterns and the inter-annual variability of sea surface height anomaly in both the C-GLORS data and the STORM simulation consistent with the AVISO- satellite data. Also the strong westward intensification and the seasonal patterns of South China Sea circulation steered by the monsoon have been presented well. As an important indicator of vertical movement, the sea surface temperature distribution maps are also very close, especially for the narrow upwelling region in summer. We conclude that the output of the STORM simulation is realistically capturing both the large-scale as well as the small-scale dynamical features in the South China Sea.
    Źródło:
    Oceanologia; 2017, 59, 2
    0078-3234
    Pojawia się w:
    Oceanologia
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    “Noise” in climatologically driven ocean models with different grid resolution
    Autorzy:
    Tang, S.
    von Storch, H.
    Chen, X.
    Zhang, M.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48986.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
    Tematy:
    climate system
    noise
    nonlinear model
    high-dimensional nonlinear model
    macroturbulence
    spatial distribution
    daily variation
    South China Sea
    Źródło:
    Oceanologia; 2019, 61, 3
    0078-3234
    Pojawia się w:
    Oceanologia
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Making coastal research useful — cases from practice
    Autorzy:
    von Storch, H.
    Emeis, K.
    Meinke, I.
    Kannen, A.
    Matthias, V.
    Ratter, B.M.W.
    Stanev, E.
    Weisse, R.
    Wirtz, K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48154.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
    Tematy:
    maritime spatial planning
    monitoring
    hazard
    risk
    utility
    eutrophication
    environment degradation
    Źródło:
    Oceanologia; 2015, 57, 1
    0078-3234
    Pojawia się w:
    Oceanologia
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Developing criteria for a stakeholder-centred evaluation of climate services: the case of extreme event attribution for storm surges at the German Baltic Sea
    Autorzy:
    Schwab, M.
    Storch, H. von
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108498.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    usługi klimatyczne
    ekstremalne zdarzenia pogodowe
    zmiana klimatu
    climate service
    extreme weather event
    climate change
    stakeholder-centered evaluation
    Opis:
    Science-based knowledge about climate-related hazards is an inevitable part of the knowledge basis needed for many stakeholders’ decision-making. Despite continuous advances in climate science, much of this knowledge is perceived to be hardly accessible, understandable, or relevant to stakeholders. One relatively new field where these aspects may become evident is extreme weather event attribution. It has received much attention in science in recent years, but its potential usefulness to stakeholders has rarely been addressed in the literature so far. This study has therefore developed criteria for evaluating potential climate services from a stakeholder perspective, using the example of findings from extreme event attribution. This is illustrated in an empirical mixed-method study about decision-makers dealing with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea Coast and (re)insurance sector representatives. The study builds on interviews and workshops with potential users of extreme event attribution. It reveals that there are three main groups of criteria which matter most to the stakeholders in question: 1) trustworthiness, 2) context-sensitivity and decision-relevance, 3) clarity and comprehensibility. Having appropriate evaluation categories, as well as processes to identify stakeholder-specific criteria, will facilitate the inclusion of values, knowledge contexts, and interests. Many stakeholders emphasized that they need a trustworthy knowledge broker who provides decision-oriented information which is intuitively accessible, understandable, and in their mother tongue. Being independent, scientifically competent, and in a continuous dialogue with both scientists and stakeholders, established regional and sector-specific climate services can facilitate the fulfilment of these requirements. A stakeholder-oriented evaluation will thereby help to make climate services more useful to potential user groups – even if a product is not in use yet, as is the case for extreme event attribution products.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2018, 6, 1; 27-35
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5

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