- Tytuł:
- Predicting the shipping market by spreads of timecharter rates
- Autorzy:
- Yip, T. L.
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/134964.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2018
- Wydawca:
- Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
- Tematy:
-
timecharter rates
shipping market
Panamax dry bulk ships
economic indicator
maritime transport - Opis:
- This paper has explored the predictability of spreads between long-term and short-term timecharter rates on spot freight rates. The spread between long-term and short-term rates (or the slope of the yield curve) is often used as a leading economic indicator of economic activities. This concept has been extended to the shipping market in this paper and the probability that the spot freight rate will increase or decrease has been determined. Using the spread between the timecharter rates on long-term and short-term charter contracts, the direction of spot freight rates has been predicted with the dynamic probit model, which is used to estimate the probability of discrete events. Evidence has been drawn from Panamax dry bulk ships for future weekly, quarterly and biyearly changes of spot freight rates. While the dynamic probit model has shown moderate predictive power, the weekly model has shown that the market has a relatively longer memory than the quarterly and biyearly models.
- Źródło:
-
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2018, 53 (125); 9-16
1733-8670
2392-0378 - Pojawia się w:
- Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł