Autor: Virén, Matti - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Consumption-led expansions lead to lower future output growth
Autorzy:: Virén, Matti
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2176613.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023-02-28
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:: economic growth
demand management
consumption-led growth
Opis:: When assessing future growth prospects, does the current structure of demand matter, i.e. does it affect the future growth? This question is analysed in our paper using global and EU panel data. The result is quite striking: consumption-led growth - either in terms of private or public or total consumption - is slower than investment-led or exports-led growth. The same qualitative result is obtained irrespectively of the length of the past growth period (lag window), yet the more often the past is characterised by consumption-led growth, the slower the growth rate is in the future. In this context, our research provides important insights for both structural and cyclical policies.
Źródło:: Przegląd Statystyczny; 2022, 69, 3; 44-59
0033-2372
Pojawia się w:: Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: How the shadow economy can be detected in National Accounts
Autorzy:: Oinonen, Sami
Virén, Matti
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1808289.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2021-10-18
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:: shadow economy
National Accounts
saving behaviour
Opis:: The paper examines how indicators of the shadow economy correspond to the National Accounts values. More precisely, we focus on household accounts assuming that the shadow economy should be visible in the difference between household income and consumption, as household (disposable) income is grossly underreported. Household consumption seems therefore to be a more accurate indicator in this context, as most shadow economy income is eventually spent on consumption. This implies that household savings figures should be negatively related to the values of the shadow economy; consequently, if the values relating to the shadow economy are high, savings should be low, or even negative, and vice versa. We verify this hypothesis using European cross-country data covering the years 1991-2017 with the application of MIMIC model calculations as a point of reference. The estimation results lend very little support to the hypothesis assuming that the shadow economy depresses household savings, even though we can otherwise explain comparatively well the cross-country variation in household savings and consumption growth rates.
Źródło:: Przegląd Statystyczny; 2021, 68, 2; 20-37
0033-2372
Pojawia się w:: Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Long-run inflation expectations in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: what do the survey responses tell us?
Autorzy:: Oinonen, Sami
Viren, Matti
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22444368.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2020
Wydawca:: Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:: inflation expectations
policy credibility
survey data
Opis:: Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns. Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility. Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1?2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables. Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target.
Źródło:: Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2020, 15, 4; 675-695
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:: Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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