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    Wyświetlanie 1-8 z 8
    Tytuł:
    Regional Economic Impact Assessment with Missing Input-Output Data: A Spatial Econometrics Approach for Poland
    Autorzy:
    Torój, Andrzej
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076475.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    input-output model
    spatial econometrics
    Durbin model
    multiregion analysis
    regional economic impact assessment
    Opis:
    We propose a method of constructing multisector-multiregion input-output tables, based on the standard multisector tables and the tools of spatial econometrics. Voivodship-level (NUTS-2) and subregion-level data (NUTS-3) on sectoral value added is used to fit a spatial model, based on a modification of the Durbin model. The structural coefficients are calibrated, based on I-O multipliers, while the spatial weight matrices are estimated as parsimoniously parametrised functions of physical distance and limited supply in certain regions. We incorporate additional restrictions to derive proportions in which every cross-sectoral flow should be interpolated into cross-regional flow matrix. All calculations are based on publicly available data. The method is illustrated with an example of regional economic impact assessment for a generic construction company located in Eastern Poland.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2016, 2; 61-91
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Why Don’t Blanchard-Kahn ever "Catch" Flu? And How it Matters for Measuring Indirect Cost of Epidemics in DSGE Framework
    Autorzy:
    Torój, Andrzej
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483327.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    indirect cost
    influenza
    DSGE
    Blanchard-Kahn conditions
    modelling epidemics
    Opis:
    We attempt to apply a New Keynesian open economy model to simulate the economic consequences of influenza epidemic in Poland and measure the output loss (indirect cost) related to this disease. We introduce a negative health shock on the supply side of the economy and demonstrate that such a shock – implemented as a reduction in labour utilisation under unchanged labour cost – is not equivalent to negative labour supply shock. As expectational effects may hypothetically play a significant role in determining the economic cost of influenza, we attempt to endogenise the mechanism of epidemic in the model for the rational expectations solution algorithm to take account for the possibility of epidemic. This attempt has failed for the standard SIR model of epidemic and for the standard Blanchard-Kahn-like local solution methods, as the SIR block is only consistent with Blanchard-Kahn conditions under herd immunity of the population. In the deterministic simulation with the number of infected given exogenously, the output loss resulting from influenza-related presenteeism and absenteeism was estimated at 0.004% of the steady state level on average in the period 2000-2013. The simulated indirect cost in the New Keynesian model has turned out to be lower than the estimates that one could possibly obtain using the human capital approach. The reason for this discrepancy is the demand-oriented construction of the New Keynesian framework, and we treat this result as closer in notion to what the friction cost approach might suggest.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2013, 5, 3; 185-206
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Solving Forward-Looking Models of Cross-Country Adjustment within the Euro Area
    Autorzy:
    Torój, Andrzej
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483343.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2009
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    solving rational expectations models
    generalized Schur decomposition
    heterogenous information sets
    method of Christiano
    divergences in EMU
    Opis:
    This article introduces and applies two refinements to the algorithm of solving rational expectations models of a currency union. Firstly, building upon Klein (2000), it generalizes the standard methods of solving rational expectations models to the case of time-varying nonstochastic parameters, recurring in a finite cycle. Such a specification occurs in a simple stylized New Keynesian model of the euro area after a joint introduction of (i) rotation in the ECB Governing Council (as constituted by the Treaty of Nice) and (ii) home bias in the interest rate decisions preferred by its members. Secondly, we apply the method of Christiano (2002) to solve the model with heterogenous information sets. This is justified if we argue that the information set of domestic economic agents in a currency union is home-biased (i.e. foreign shocks enter only with a lag). Both methods of solution are illustrated with simulation results.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2009, 1, 3; 211-241
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Rationality of Expectations: Another OCA Criterion? A DSGE Analysis
    Autorzy:
    Torój, Andrzej
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483349.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2010
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    optimum currency areas
    rational expectations
    DSGE
    EMU
    inflation differentials
    Opis:
    The Walters critique of EMU presumed that pro-cyclical country-specific real interest rates would incorporate significant macroeconomic instability in an environment of asymmetric shocks. The literature on optimum currency areas suggests a number of criteria to minimize this risk, such as market flexibility, high degrees of openness, financial integration or similarity in inflation rates. In this paper, we argue that an essential part of macroeconomic volatility in a monetary union's member country also depends on the mechanism of forming expectations. This is mainly due to (i) the construction of ex ante countryspecific real interest rate, implying a strong or weak negative correlation with current inflation rate and (ii) anticipated (and hence smoothed) loss in competitiveness and boom-bust cycle. In a 2-region 2-sector New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply 5 different specifications of ex ante real interest rates, based on commonly considered types of expectations: rational, adaptive, static, extrapolative and regressive, as well as their hybrids. Our simulations show that rational expectations dominate the other specifications in terms of minimizing the volatility of the most macroeconomic variables. This conclusion is generally insensitive to which group of agents (producers or consumers) and which region (home or foreign) forms the expectations. It also turns out that for some types of expectations theWalters critique indeed applies, i.e. the system does not fulfil the Blanchard-Kahn conditions or the system's companion matrix has explosive eigenvalues.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2010, 2, 3; 205-252
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Crisis Resistance Versus Monetary Regime: A Polish–Slovak Counterfactual Exercise
    Autorzy:
    Torój, Andrzej
    Konopczak, Karolina
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483235.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2012
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    euro adoption
    Polska
    Slovakia
    DSGE
    counterfactual simulations
    Opis:
    In the public debate, it is argued that Poland avoided a massive drop in output during the 2008/2009 economic crisis in part thanks to substantial nominal zloty’s depreciation against the euro. The Polish case is often contrasted with Slovakia that adopted the euro in January 2009 and, since the Ecofin Council decision in summer 2008, exhibited virtually no nominal exchange rate volatility while facing deep losses in output. In this paper we attempt to validate this contrast by reversing the roles, i.e. checking if Poland really would have faced the same drop – and Slovakia would have remained relatively resilient – if it had been Poland, not Slovakia, that adopted the euro at that point. Our counterfactual simulations based on a New Keynesian DSGE model indicate that, indeed, the Polish tradable output could have been 10-15 percent lower than actually observed in 2009, while the Slovak one – approximately 20 percent higher. This asymmetry results mainly from structural differences between the two economies, such as size, openness, share of nontradable sector and foreign trade elasticities. The difference of this size would have been short-lived (3-4 quarters), and the difference of the nontradable output would have been of much lower magnitude.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2012, 4, 1; 1-22
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Estimating the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuelson Effects in the Polish Economy - a Disaggregated Approach
    Autorzy:
    Konopczak, Karolina
    Torój, Andrzej
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483365.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2010
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis
    monetary integration
    real appreciation
    panel cointegration
    Opis:
    This paper estimates the magnitude of the Baumol-Bowen and Balassa-Samuleson effects in the Polish economy. The purpose of the analysis is to establish to what extent the differential price dynamics in Poland and in the euro area and the real appreciation of PLN against EUR are explained by the differential in respective productivity dynamics. The historical contribution of the Baumol-Bowen effect to Polish inflation rate is estimated at 0:9 - 1:0 percentage points in the short run. According to estimation results, the Balassa-Samuelson effect contributed around 0:9 to 1:0 percentage point per annum to the rate of relative price growth between Poland and the euro area and 1:0 to 1:2 p.p. to real exchange rate appreciation. The long-run effects are of an approximately twice larger magnitude. Sub-sample calculations and productivity trends over the last decade suggest that this impact should be declining. However, its size is still non-negligible for policymakers in the context of euro adoption in Poland.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2010, 2, 2; 117-150
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Anti-liberal, anti-establishment or constituency-driven? Spatial econometric analysis of polish parliamentary election results in 2015
    Autorzy:
    Lasoń, Aleksandra
    Torój, Andrzej
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/623531.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
    Tematy:
    spatial analysis
    election results
    Polska
    constituencies
    mixed-W models
    Opis:
    We investigated the spatial variation patterns of voting results in Polish parliamentary election in 2015 across 380 regions. That election was a milestone event in Polish politics that substantially affected Poland’s internal and foreign policy directions and promoted two emerging political parties as runners-up against the well-established ones. While socio-economic, cultural and geographical factors such as economic activity, historical legacies (post-Russian East vs post-German West) and economic dichotomies (cities vs the countryside) explain most variations for most parties, they do not appeared to fit as determinants of the new parties’ support, especially of right-wing populists. Demographic target groups of individual parties appear to be relatively unresponsive to their pre-election offerings. The spatial specification of econometric models considerably improves their statistical properties. We also examined mixed-W models to account for the unobservable spatial effects stemming from the construction of constituencies. Their distinctive sets of candidates added significantly to the explanation of the spatial variation in voting.
    Źródło:
    European Spatial Research and Policy; 2019, 26, 2; 177-197
    1231-1952
    1896-1525
    Pojawia się w:
    European Spatial Research and Policy
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Macromodels’2011
    Autorzy:
    Volná Kaličinská, Barbora
    Kruszewski, Robert
    Buszkowska, Eliza
    Będowska-Sójka, Barbara
    Huptas, Roman
    Kwiatkowski, Łukasz
    Osińska, Magdalena
    Gadomski, Jan
    Gątarek, Łukasz
    Hoogerheide, Lennart F.
    Hooning, Koen
    Van Dijk, Herman K.
    Osiewalski, Jacek
    Osiewalski, Krzysztof
    Pajor, Anna
    Wróblewska, Justyna
    Fałdziński, Marcin
    Zdanowicz, Tomasz
    Gosińska, Emilia
    Burzyński, Michał
    Ciołek, Dorota
    Brodzicki, Tomasz
    Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, Katarzyna
    Konopczyński, Michał
    Lenart, Łukasz
    Pipień, Mateusz
    Skrzypczyńska, Marta
    Weron, Rafał
    Doman, Małgorzata
    Doman, Ryszard
    Kliber, Agata
    Płuciennik, Piotr
    Welfe, Władysław
    Torój, Andrzej
    Welfe, Aleksander
    Wdowiński, Piotr
    Tokarski, Tomasz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/books/43330205.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2012
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
    Opis:
    Tom pokonferencyjny, na który składają się materiały z dwu międzynarodowych konferencji (XXXVIII International Conference MACROMODELS’ 2011 i 16th AMFET Conference on Modelling Economies in Transition, 30 listopada – 3 grudnia 2011, Poznań). Publikacja zawiera 5 artykułów z bibliografiami i 19 abstraktów prezentujących tematykę wystąpień konferencyjnych. Dwudzielny układ podkreślają dwa wprowadzenia, orientujące w zakresie podjętej przez badaczy tematyki.
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Książka
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