- Tytuł:
- Forecasting the Polish Zloty with Non-Linear Models
- Autorzy:
-
Rubaszek, Michał
Skrzypczyński, Paweł
Koloch, Grzegorz - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483367.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2010-11-03
- Wydawca:
- Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
- Tematy:
-
exchange rate forecasting
Polish zloty
Markov-switching models
artificial neural networks - Opis:
- The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies show that forecasts from a naive random walk tend to be comparable or even better than forecasts from more sophisticated models. In the case of the Polish zloty, the discussion in the literature on exchange rate forecasting is scarce. This article fills this gap by testing whether non-linear time series models are able to generate forecasts for the nominal exchange rate of the Polish zloty that are more accurate than forecasts from a random walk. Our results confirm the main findings from the literature, namely that it is dificult to outperform a naive random walk in exchange rate forecasting contest.
- Źródło:
-
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2010, 2, 2; 151-167
2080-0886
2080-119X - Pojawia się w:
- Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł