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Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2
Tytuł:
An Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Number of Safety Incidents in Civil Aviation
Autorzy:
Guzanek, Patrycja
Borucka, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2010418.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Centrum Rzeczoznawstwa Budowlanego Sp. z o.o.
Tematy:
air transport
civil aviation
safety incidents
transport safety
transport lotniczy
lotnictwo cywilne
incydenty bezpieczeństwa
bezpieczeństwo transportu
Opis:
Aviation is the youngest of the transport industries, yet despite its short history, it is considered one of the most important spheres of transport, both in terms of passenger and cargo transportation. Civil aviation is used by an increasing number of people, and the number of aircraft used by airlines around the world continues to grow. An inherent element that is a particularly important aspect of this mode of transportation is security. In civil aviation, there are numerous dangers associated with events occurring before the flight, during the flight, as well as those associated with the landing process. The events need to be controlled and their causes actively sought and ultimately prevented. The Polish Civil Aviation Authority, as part of the creation of the National Civil Aviation Safety Program, developed the National Safety Plan 2020-2023. The document covers threats identified in the Systemic, European, and National Areas. They are characterized and classified based on the materiality (significance) of the event. The aim of this article is to characterize and analyze selected factors (e.g. collisions with birds, helicopter events) that affect the number of safety incidents in civil aviation. The background of the study was the analysis and synthesis of the literature on the subject, while the main research method was the statistical analysis of historical data on aviation incidents. The data provided in Poland's National Security Plan 2020-2023 were used to distinguish the factors associated with the threats present and synthetically evaluate their impact. The analyses made it possible to identify areas of particular safety risks and form the basis for further detailed research.
Źródło:
Safety & Defense; 2021, 2; 105-118
2450-551X
Pojawia się w:
Safety & Defense
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Predicting the seasonality of passengers in railway transport based on time series for proper railway development
Autorzy:
Borucka, Anna
Guzanek, Patrycja
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2098132.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
Tematy:
rail transport
passenger flow
time series models
transport kolejowy
przepływ pasażerów
modele szeregów czasowych
Opis:
Planning the frequency of rail services is closely related to forecasting the number of passengers and is part of the comprehensive analysis of railway systems. Most of the research presented in the literature focuses only on selected areas of this system (e.g. urban agglomerations, urban underground transport, transfer nodes), without presenting a comprehensive evaluation that would provide full knowledge and diagnostics of this mode of transport (i.e. railway transport). Therefore, this article presents methods for modelling passenger flow in rail traffic at a national level (using the example of Poland). Time series models were used to forecast the number of passengers in rail transport. The error, trend, and seasonality (ETS) exponential smoothing model and the model belonging to the ARMA class were used. An adequate model was selected, allowing future values to be forecast. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model follows the tested series better than the ETS model and is characterised by the lowest values of forecast errors in relation to the test set. The forecast based on the ARIMA model is characterised by a better detection of the trends and seasonality of the series. The results of the present study are considered to form the basis for solving potential rail traffic problems, which depend on the volume of passenger traffic, at the central level. The methods presented can also be implemented in other systems with similar characteristics, which affects the usability of the presented solutions.
Źródło:
Transport Problems; 2021, 16, 1; 51--61
1896-0596
2300-861X
Pojawia się w:
Transport Problems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2

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