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Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2
Tytuł:
Multi-annual variability of global solar radiation in the agricultural area of Lower Silesia (SW Poland) and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation
Autorzy:
Bryś, Krystyna
Bryś, Tadeusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108453.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
global radiation
multi-annual variability
climate change
NAO
Opis:
In this paper, the long-term variability of global solar radiation in the agricultural area of Lower Silesia is analyzed based on a 56-year long (1961-2016) measurement series recorded at the Agro- and Hydro-meteorological Wrocław-Swojec Observatory (SW Poland). Yearly and monthly global radiation sums with their extreme and mean values were compared with radiation data from Warsaw (Central Poland) and Potsdam (East Germany). The dynamics of variability between consecutive months, seasons and years was also taken into account. The conducted positive trends show a significant increase in the investigated global radiation sums for Lower Silesia and also for Central Poland and the eastern part of Germany. The trends are strongly related to long-term macro-circulation changes in the North Hemisphere, particularly with the phases and sub-phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relations between the investigated values of global solar radiation and these macro-circulation patterns are very complicated and they very often have an asynchronous character. The first, juvenile stage of the NAO positive phase (the 1970s and 1980s), when annual sums of global solar radiation in Wrocław-Swojec reached only the average level of about 3700 MJ·m-2 and warm half-year about 2800 MJ·m-2 respectively, was cloudy and rainy. This period was distinctly different than the advanced stage of one (the 1990’s and later years) with bigger sunshine duration and smaller annual precipitation, when the adequate radiation sums amount to 3 900-4000 MJ·m-2 and 3 000-3 100 MJ·m-2 respectively.
Źródło:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2019, 7, 2; 13-25
2299-3835
2353-5652
Pojawia się w:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Role of internal variability of climate system in increase of air temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the years 1951–2018
Autorzy:
Marsz, Andrzej A.
Styszyńska, Anna
Bryś, Krystyna
Bryś, Tadeusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2054944.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-09-01
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Tematy:
air temperature trend
macro-circulation conditions
sunshine duration
NAO
radiative forcing
CO2
Opis:
In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season because of increased sunshine duration in Wrocław (ShWr). Multiple regression analysis has shown that the winter NAO Hurrell’s index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the ShWr of the long-day (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas the internal variability of the climate system is underestimated.
Źródło:
Quaestiones Geographicae; 2021, 40, 3; 109-124
0137-477X
2081-6383
Pojawia się w:
Quaestiones Geographicae
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2

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