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Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4
Tytuł:
Subiektywne prawdopodobieństwo i problem przeliczalnej addytywności
Subjective Probability and the Problem of Countable Additivity
Autorzy:
Dziurosz-Serafinowicz, Patryk
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/968356.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009-03-01
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Filozofii
Opis:
The aim of this paper is to present and analyse Bruno de Finetti's view that the axiom of countable additivity of the probability calculus cannot be justified in terms of the subjective interpretation of probability. After presenting the core of the subjective theory of probability and the main de Finetti's argument against the axiom of countable additivity (the so called de Finetti's infinite lottery) I argue against de Finetti's view. In particular, I claim that de Finetti does not prove the impossibility of using Dutch Book argument for the axiom of countable additivity. Consequently, we can use Dutch Book argument for the justification of the axiom of countable additivity and regard de Finetti's lottery as a special case when the axiom does not hold, or we can justify countable additivity by Dutch Book argument and reject de Finetti's lottery as irrational. The second strategy, represented especially by Jon Williamson, is much more compatible with the idea of subjective interpretation of probability.
Źródło:
Filozofia Nauki; 2009, 17, 1; 123-134
1230-6894
2657-5868
Pojawia się w:
Filozofia Nauki
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Przydatność prawdopodobieństwa subiektywnego do kalkulacji stóp składek w ubezpieczeniach obowiązkowych odpowiedzialności cywilnej zawodowej
Usefulness of Subjective Probability to Calculate Premiums in the Obligatory Civil Professional Insurance
Autorzy:
Wieteska, Stanisław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/586361.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Składki ubezpieczeniowe
Szacowanie prawdopodobieństwa
Ubezpieczenia majątkowe
Ubezpieczenia obowiązkowe
Compulsory insurance
Insurance premium
Probability estimation
Property insurance
Opis:
In the years 2003-2009 the several acts of law concerning obligatory insurance of various professional groups were created. Insurances protect these groups especially from errors that occur during performing work. The article presents the problem of difficulties in calculating the contribution rates as a result of lack of data. But in order to calculate the rate of contribution the article attempts to use of subjective probability.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2013, 154; 124-134
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Decision-making under risk and “statistical thinking” in the 20th century (selected models and persons)
Autorzy:
Rybicki, Wojciech
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/584930.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
statistics
risk
subjective probability
objective probability
frequentists
sequential analysis
stochastic approximation
stochastic game
empirical Bayes approach
Opis:
The paper is the second part of the series of articles surveying chosen models of decision-making under “risky circumstances”. The first segment concerned the earlier period of development of so-called “statistical thinking” (up to the times of J. Neyman and E. Pearson) and has been published elsewhere. These “twins” of papers as a whole, are intended as essays (consciously avoiding any formalization) to introduce the subsequent parts of the cycle – conducted in a more formal style. Several problems were discussed in the first part of the series. The leitmotifs, i.e. Bayesian vs. “orthodox” approaches, and the subjective vs. objective probability meaning are continued in this article, and developed towards the “modern needs and directions”. The role of some outstanding scientists is stressed. The possibility of the unification of the different philosophies on the grounds of statistical decision theory (thanks to A. Wald and L.J. Savage) is noted. “Dynamic” or multistage statistical decision procedures will be also indicated (in contrast to “static, “one-shot” problems). The primary role in developing these ideas played by mathematicians A. Wald, L. Shapley, R. Bellman, D. Blackwell and H. Robbins (plus many others) is stressed. The outline is conducted in a “historical perspective” beginning with F. Ramsey’s work and finishing at H. Robbins achievements – as being very influential in the further development of the stochastic methodology. The list of models, to be discussed in the subsequent (“formal-mode”) article/s, is added at the end of the paper. The central role in the notes is played by the “procession” of the prominent representatives of the field. The first “series” of them was presented in the previous part of the cycle. The subsequent (nine) are placed here. These scientists built the milestones of statistical science, “created its spirit,” exquisitely embedding the subject in the “general stochastic world”. The presentation is supplemented with their portraits. The author hopes that some keystones determining the line-up can be recognized in the course of reading. It is not possible to talk about mathematics without mathematics (formulas, calculations, formal reasoning). On the other hand − such beings as probability, uncertainty, risk can be, first of all, regarded as philosophic and logic in their heart of hearts (as well as being somewhat “mysterious”). So, it can turn out illuminating (sometimes) to reveal and to show merely the ideas and “their” heroes (even at the expense of losing the precision!). The role of the bibliography should also be stressed – it is purposely made so large, and significantly completes the presentation.
Źródło:
Mathematical Economics; 2018, 14(21); 71-94
1733-9707
Pojawia się w:
Mathematical Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN THE SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF POLES
Autorzy:
Kasprzyk, Beata
Wojnar, Beata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453375.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
logistic regression analysis households
value of quality of life
qualitative variable
probability
Opis:
The paper discusses the application of tools of multivariate analytical methods i.e., logistic regression, to model the subjective assessment of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with quality of life achieved. Based on empirical data from a random sampling of households in Podkarpacie province, the statistical significance of variables was estimated, which enabled the estimation of the value of life quality based entirely on qualitative variables, that are characteristic for a given household, with incomes being excluded. The essence of the regression is to seek such household related parameters, that could have varying degrees of impact on the occurrence of either negative or positive values. The models have been designed based on varied classification categories for households, thus allowing for both the quantitative analysis and comparison of the impacts of key cardinal determinants of values of life.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2013, 14, 1; 212-221
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4

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