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Tytuł:
Risk analysis in maintenance processes
Autorzy:
Drożyner, Przemysław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1818983.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Białostocka. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Białostockiej
Tematy:
risk analysis
maintenance
reliability
analiza ryzyka
konserwacja
niezawodność
Opis:
The article aims to present practical methods for prioritising the activities of maintenance departments based on the Pareto analysis and the failure risk analysis. Based on the collected data on the number of observed failures and their removal times, commonly known reliability indicators were determined, which were then used to estimate the probabilities and consequences of failures in terms of the risk of loss of production continuity. Based on commonly collected failure data, the developed methods allow proposing to the maintenance departments the sequence of maintenance and repair work to be undertaken in terms of minimising the risk of failure. Risk analysis is somewhat commonly used in the practice of maintenance departments (e.g. RBI, FMEA, ETA, FTE, HIRA). The added value of this work is the use of reliability indicators for estimating the values of risk components, i.e., probability and consequences. The method was developed on the basis of operational data collected in one of the plants of the dairy cooperative and, after assessing the effects of its implementation, it was implemented in other enterprises of the cooperative.
Źródło:
Engineering Management in Production and Services; 2020, 12, 4; 64--76
2543-6597
2543-912X
Pojawia się w:
Engineering Management in Production and Services
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis of transport systems
Autorzy:
Smalko, Z.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/243512.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Opis:
It is assumed that the decision analysis is to be used to create rational premises of safe operation of controlled systems under uncertainty conditions. Diagnosis and Decision System is described on the system, which consists of the environment diagnostic facilities human being controlled system. The function of this system is to recognise dangerous operating situations and to generate a warning that some danger might occur as well as to create rational premises for prevention of incorrect decisions that are made during the operation of the controlled system. The processing of messages is carried out in compliance with the conventional Calculus of logic including the double negation law. The Diagnosis and Decision model presented in this paper is universal to a great extent. The block diagram of the diagnosis and decision system, tree of events in a DD system, message creation tables are presented in the paper. The block diagram of the diagnosis and decision system includes Environment, Controlled System, Human Being (Operator, Diagnostician), Diagnostic Facilities, Controlled System or Environment Output State, Hazard Symptom, Warning Signal, Operation Decision. Tree of Events includes occurrence of a controlled system inoperativity or operativity state, presence or absence of: a symptom, a signal; controlled system operation permitting or inhibiting decision, message identity or negation processing law. Message Creation Tables includes presence or absence of: a false symptom, a true symptom, a false alarm, a true ALARM; correct or incorrect: permission, controlled system operation inhibition.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2008, 15, 3; 493-498
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Migration Crisis – risk analysis for 2017
Autorzy:
El Ghamari, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1202385.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Biznesu w Dąbrowie Górniczej
Tematy:
Migrant crisis
Frontex
Migrats routs
Risk analysis
Opis:
Regular passenger flows across external borders will also grow significantly in the coming years, in particular at the air border, due to increased global mobility. Visa liberalisation processes and local border traffic agreements also lead to greater responsibility for bordercontrol authorities. Movements across external air borders are managed through a layered approach, where the border is divided into four tiers. In this context, the physical border is gradually becoming a second ary layer for risk assessment, meaning that checking and screening start well before passengers cross bordercontrol posts at airports.
Źródło:
Security Forum; 2018, 1, Volume 2 No 1/2018; 37-49
2544-1809
Pojawia się w:
Security Forum
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Advances in risk analysis in railway signalling
Autorzy:
Jensen, B.
Griebel, S.,
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069433.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
level crossing
semi-quantitative method
safety
EN50126
EN50129
Opis:
The paper is concerned with the developments of risk analysis during the last decade, starting from full range quantitative risk analysis of e.g. a level crossing based on the CENELEC standards EN50126 and EN50129 up to semi-quantitative methods for risk analysis. To expedite this shift from pure quantitative approaches to a more categorized approach were the perennial challenges of insufficient availability of accurate data and the sheer complexity of the reality to be model quantitatively. The article contains both a presentation of a complete quantitative risk analysis for a level crossing as well as a discussion of the crucial points that will need improvement on the basis of a new semi-quantitative standard for risk analysis that has been issued as a national pre-standard in Germany. The relation to the current regulations stipulated by the European Railway Agency and recent publications on this issue are presented as well.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 1; 101--108
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methods for risk analysis in disaster reduction
Autorzy:
Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069580.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
disaster reduction
natural hazards
Opis:
This paper discusses a proposal for a risk management tool for applications to risk reduction of natural hazards.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2007, 1; 121--125
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis in designing of body armour
Autorzy:
Struszczyk, M.H.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/237953.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologii Bezpieczeństwa Moratex
Tematy:
kamizelka kuloodporna
projektowanie zbroi
analiza ryzyka
bullet-proof vest
armor design
risk analysis
Opis:
Risk analysis is helpful tools in design of body armor, such as: bullet, fragments proof vests. The proper design process requires the nowledge for all aspects connected with construction, selection of raw-materials, consumer needs as well as the performance and safety during the use and storage. The paper will be present the application of risk analysis in designing of modern contractions of body armors. Several aspects should be taken into account The hazards resulted from technological process, election of raw materials, comfort-ability, the lost of performance and safety during the standard use and storage will be presented and evaluated.
Źródło:
Techniczne Wyroby Włókiennicze; 2009, R. 17, nr 2/3, 2/3; 66-73
1230-7491
Pojawia się w:
Techniczne Wyroby Włókiennicze
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis on scaffoldings exposed to noise
Autorzy:
Jabłoński, M.
Szer, I.
Szer, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/105011.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Politechnika Rzeszowska im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza. Oficyna Wydawnicza
Tematy:
environmental studies
noise
scaffolding
sound level
Opis:
The article presents the results of environmental tests performed on scaffolding that were focused mainly on the sound level. The parameters on which we base our analysis are the value of daily noise exposure level and peak sound levels on scaffolding. The noise that affects construction workers on scaffolding, may increase the risk of accidents. We present the results of measurements for twenty two scaffolds in five cities. The analyses carried out confirmed the qualitatively expected dependencies but they allowed us to quantify the impact of the noise on which construction workers on the scaffolding are exposed. The noise occurs continuously throughout the day and can cause faster fatigue, thereby it can increase the risk of accidents in noisy work environment.
Źródło:
Czasopismo Inżynierii Lądowej, Środowiska i Architektury; 2018, 65, 1; 117-125
2300-5130
2300-8903
Pojawia się w:
Czasopismo Inżynierii Lądowej, Środowiska i Architektury
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Failure risk analysis in the water distribution system
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069656.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
risk analysis
failure
risk
water distribution system
Opis:
A water distribution system (WDS) ought to be high reliable continuous operating system. Failure factors in WDS should be identified and prioritised, for example, the causing factors in the most frequent failures in water-pipe network. In this paper, the failure risk analysis of the WDS is presented, and accordingly, a New method consisting the failures index (FI) and the evaluation of risk of failure within the relevant area, based on the assumed categories (tolerable, controlled and unacceptable risk). It is expecting that the methodology for the WDS performance risk analysis would provide the city leadership for decision making support.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 247--254
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis when navigating in restricted sea areas
Autorzy:
Rutkowski, G.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/320869.pdf
Data publikacji:
2006
Wydawca:
Polskie Forum Nawigacyjne
Tematy:
analiza ryzyka
wody ograniczone
risk analysis
restricted waters
Opis:
This paper discusses the question of classifying the sea areas as sea areas difficult for navigation, unrestricted sea areas and sea areas restricted by land (bottom or shore). Most of all, the article depicts the characteristics of restricted sea areas. It presents the attempt to define in a new way the following notions: "safety of shipping", "safety of navigation", "risk of navigation", "risk of collisions", "navigational obstacle", and "sea area difficult for navigation". In this paper author also presents methods that can be used for estimating safety of navigation (navigational risk) in the restricted sea areas by means of the model of the ship's domain. The essence of the method suggested in the thesis is the systematic approach to sea vessel operation in the aspect of estimating its safety when navigating in restricted sea areas.
Źródło:
Annual of Navigation; 2006, 11; 103-122
1640-8632
Pojawia się w:
Annual of Navigation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
An application of suitable methods during risk analysis
Autorzy:
Lošonczi, Peter
Veľas, Andrej
Kručanica, Ladislav
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2131202.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Studiów Międzynarodowych i Edukacji Humanum
Tematy:
analysis
risk
method
security
Opis:
Risk analysis is an important element for knowing and understanding potential risks in the protection of a protected interest. The number of factors that influence a risk is high and heterogeneous, what gives a width dimension to the risk analysis. Choosing a suitable method of risk analysis is crucial for successful outcomes, for further modification of risks and actions against them.
Źródło:
Humanum. Międzynarodowe Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne; 2016, 2(21); 119-122
1898-8431
Pojawia się w:
Humanum. Międzynarodowe Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis of actions in key business processes
Autorzy:
Grabowska, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/324969.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
Tematy:
procesy biznesowe
ryzyko
business processes
risk
Opis:
Zarządzanie ryzykiem stanowi jeden z elementów pracy menedżera. Świadome i uporządkowane zarządzanie ryzykiem pozwala ograniczyć niepewność w zarządzaniu procesami biznesowymi. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie i analiza ryzyka występującego w procesach biznesowych badanych przedsiębiorstw z branży turystycznej.
Risk management is one of the elements of the manager's work. The deliberate and structured risk management helps reduce uncertainty in the management of business processes. The aim of the publication is to present and analyze the risks involved in business processes studied tourism enterprises.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska; 2016, 93; 153-161
1641-3466
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis in Documentary Letter of Credit Operation
Autorzy:
Alavi, Hamed
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/943299.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016-11-27
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Gdański. Centrum Prawa Samorządowego i Prawa Finansów Lokalnych
Opis:
Documentary Letters of Credit are among most popular methods of payment used in international trade. They function as an irrevocable promise of issuing a bank to pay instead of an applicant buyer to a beneficiary seller under the condition that the beneficiary presents complying documents with terms and conditions of the credit to the bank. One of the reasons for the popularity of the LCs in international trade is shifting the payment risk from an individual buyer to a bank with a much stronger financial standing. However, LC operation in international trade is not free of risk. Despite the fact that two main principles of the Documentary Letter of Credit’s Operation (Principle of independence and principle of strict compliance) facilitate the process of international trade significantly, but still all parties involved in LC operation are supposed to be cautious about the existing risks relevant to their role in LC operation. Current paper tries to use legal principles of documentary credits and risk management theory in order to define existing risks to each party (beneficiary, applicant and bank) in international LC transaction and find an answer to the question of what are exposing risks for involved parties? For this purpose, the paper starts with an explanation of the two main principles of LC operation and moves forward with using the risk management theory to explain existing risks for each party in detail.
Źródło:
Financial Law Review; 2016, 1, 4; 27-45
2299-6834
Pojawia się w:
Financial Law Review
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Pest risk analysis on Xylella fastidiosa in Morocco
Autorzy:
Afechtal, M.
Vicent, A.
Saponari, M.
D’Onghia, A.M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/65631.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
pest
risk analysis
plant pathogen
Xylella fastidiosa
Gram-negative bacterium
Morocco
Opis:
Morocco is basically an agricultural country; almost 40% of the workforce is employed in this sector. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-inhabiting pathogen which can infect more than 300 plant species, although most host species are symptomless. Until relatively recently, X. fastidiosa was primarily limited to North and South America, but in 2013 a widespread epidemic of olive quick decline syndrome caused by this fastidious pathogen appeared in southeastern Italy, and later several cases of X. fastidiosa outbreaks have been reported in other European countries (France, Germany and Spain). Following these recently confirmed findings of X. fastidiosa in the European Union, this bacterium has become a serious threat to the Moroccan flora. The national phytosanitary authorities have adopted several measures to prevent the introduction of X. fastidiosa into the national territory by deciding, inter alia, to suspend importation of host plant species to the bacterium from infected areas. This paper presents the phytosanitary risk of this bacterium in Morocco.
Źródło:
Journal of Plant Protection Research; 2018, 58, 3
1427-4345
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Plant Protection Research
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Examples of bow-tie risk analysis at maritime transport
Autorzy:
Smolarek, L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/242341.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
transport
risk analysis
BowTie method
AHTS ships
Opis:
There are different approaches to risk assessment. The SOLAS Convention is the most important safety instruments at maritime transport. The biggest risk is a major navigational incident because it can result in fatalities and pollution. Possibly the major cause of collision incidents is not fully understanding and complying the COLREGS rules. It is not possible to create a simple flowchart to define a suitable approach to risk assessment of a ship. However, some of broad factors can be used to aid the selection of a suitable risk assessment approach in maritime transport. In the literature, we can find many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis. There is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, especially for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles. This paper presents the attempt of applying the Bow-Tie methodology at maritime transport. The benefits of using Bow-Tie diagrams for risk assessment have been showed at use, for many of technical systems and processes. This methodology known as barrier diagrams, provide a readily understandable visualization of the relationships between the causes of the failure's event, the escalation of such events to a range of possible outcomes, the controls preventing the event from occurring and the preparedness measures in place to limit the consequences. The Bow-Tie is very useful for structured assessment and communication of risks.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2016, 23, 3; 489-494
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis with an application to local road infrastructure
Autorzy:
Kokoszka, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/104525.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Politechnika Rzeszowska im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza. Oficyna Wydawnicza
Tematy:
natural hazard
road
flood
landslide
risk matrix
Opis:
The paper presents the concept of the risk evaluation for road infrastructure exposed to natural hazards - floods and landslides. Floods and surface mass movements impose a serious threat to the contemporary activities and people’s lives in modern economy. The natural meteorological and hydrological phenomena are main causes of a landslide activation. Typically, heavy or prolonged rain is combined with the progressive flooding. In river valleys, an increased lateral erosion of rivers and rapid snow melting in early spring would also lead to flood events. In Poland, the Carpathian regions are mostly predisposed to the formation of landslides. This may be favoured by the nature of shapes associated with high and steeply sloping slopes of the valleys and flysch geological structure. The paper presents the general characteristics of precipitation in Poland and the concept of a risk assessment with risk matrix. The issue is illustrated by an exemplary detailed risk matrix for a selected section of the road infrastructure in Subcarpathian province.
Źródło:
Czasopismo Inżynierii Lądowej, Środowiska i Architektury; 2018, 65, 4; 69-80
2300-5130
2300-8903
Pojawia się w:
Czasopismo Inżynierii Lądowej, Środowiska i Architektury
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
RIPRAN – one of the best project risk analysis methodologies
Autorzy:
Bočková, K.
Lajčin, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108414.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
project management
project risk management
RIPRAN
Opis:
Project risk management is an important aspect of project management. According to the PMBoK, risk management is one of the ten knowledge areas in which a project manager must be competent. Project risk management remains a relatively undeveloped discipline, distinct from the risk management used by operational, financial, and underwriters’ risk management. This gulf is due to several factors: risk aversion (especially public understanding and risk in social activities), confusion in the application of risk management to projects, and the additional sophistication of probability mechanics above those of accounting, finance, and engineering. The aim of the presented paper is to demonstrate how to use RIPRAN (the Czech project for risk analysis) as a main part of a feasibility study of a new product project in a manufacturing company. To fulfill this primary aim, we formulated these secondary aims: – To provide a critical analysis of the available information sources dealing with risk management in new product projects in manufacturing companies. – To study and profoundly understand RIPRAN, project risk analysis, its history, application, principles, rules, and exceptions. – To discuss with the author of RIPRAN about the RIPRAN application in new product projects in manufacturing companies of non-Czech origin. – To compile a feasibility study of the new product project. All of these highly cited secondary aims were fulfilled. A short overview of the risk management topic as well as RIPRAN’s characteristics and definition are part of the presented paper. To process this theoretical part of the paper, we used mostly analysis, synthesis, comparison, and deduction. We studied monographs, journals, and internet links with the impact of a source's topicality. The used sources are cited in the list of references. During the process of a feasibility study of a new product project provided through the analysis of our own experience, we discussed the application of the RIPRAN method to the new product project with the author of this method. We realized e-mail correspondence, phone discussions, and finally a personal meeting to control the whole RIPRAN analysis document and discuss the method’s application in the non-Czech origin business environment. To fulfill the primary aim of the presented paper, we decided to use the case study method.
Źródło:
Managerial Economics; 2018, 19, 1; 7-24
1898-1143
Pojawia się w:
Managerial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Using the dematel model for the FMEA risk analysis
Autorzy:
Bujna, Marián
Kotus, Martin
Matušeková, Eva
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/88673.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Menedżerów Jakości i Produkcji
Tematy:
safety
risk management
work process
quality production
bezpieczeństwo
zarządzanie ryzykiem
proces pracy
jakość produkcji
Opis:
Technological progress has brought a large amount of complex machinery into the work processes, which represents a potential source of serious injuries, accidents, or breakdowns. The aim of this paper is to follow new trends in the FMEA and their use in our study. We have chosen the Turning Machine Doosan V-Puma Doosan PUMA V550R Machining Centre with manufacturing diameters and mechanical machining operations. We have created the FMEA team, which participated in the entire evaluation and analysis. We identified possible failures and causes of failures in the given operations. We applied the conventional PFMEA and identified the RPN risk number. We also used DEMATEL model. Using DEMATEL matrices, we identified a binding between the individual failures and the causes of the failures. Some failures will become the main cause of other failures and the causes of the failures; some arise as a result of other failures or causes of failures. Finally, we evaluated the applicability of individual methods and models. By the DEMATEL model we clarified the significance and bindings between individual failures.
Źródło:
System Safety : Human - Technical Facility - Environment; 2019, 1, 1; 550-557
2657-5450
Pojawia się w:
System Safety : Human - Technical Facility - Environment
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis in surveying works related to roads construction
Autorzy:
Kowacka, M.
Skorupka, D.
Duchaczek, A.
Waniewska, A.
Dudziak-Gajowiak, D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/886734.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Źródło:
Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences; 2019, 28, 3[85]
1732-9353
Pojawia się w:
Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Failure risk analysis in the water supply sector management
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Rak, J. R.
Pietrucha, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069627.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
water supply
risk management
safety
critical infrastructure
Opis:
The subject and main purpose of this study is to develop risk analytic model for the design and operation of water supply sector. A water supply system belongs to the critical infrastructure of cities, and it should be a priority task for waterworks and even for the local authorities to ensure the suitable level of its safety. A water supply systems (WSS) ought to be high reliable continuous operating system. Failure factors in WSS should be identified and prioritized, for example, the causing factors in the most frequent failures in waterpipe network. Drinking water supply utilities are responsible for providing a safe and reliable supply of potable water to their customers. Risk priority helps asset manager to target and refine maintenance plans, capital expenditure plans, investigative activities, and deal with potential failure before it occurs. In this paper, we present a review of classic risk analyses, risk management and new methodology for water supply networks management. This paper presents a framework for the analysis of performance risk in water supply that can be applied to the entire system or to individual subsystems. It is expecting that the methodology for the water supply performance risk analysis would provide the city leadership for decision making support.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2011, 2, 1; 185--196
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bezpieczeństwo procesowe w obiektach przemysłowych
Risk analysis in industrial facilities
Autorzy:
Kozak, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/403209.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Politechnika Białostocka. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Białostockiej
Tematy:
analiza ryzyka
bezpieczeństwo
planowanie przestrzenne
cykl życia obiektu
risk analysis
safety
land-use planning
Opis:
Przedstawiono zasady oceny ryzyka instalacji przemysłowej w całym cyklu życia obiektu. Podano schemat decyzyjny w analizie ryzyka oraz sugestie dotyczące zastosowania technik analizy ryzyka. Wskazano na związek między bezpieczeństwem procesowym a planowaniem przestrzennym.
This article presents the methods of risk analysis of an industrial facility during its whole lifetime cycle. The document describes a decision diagram which is used in risk analysis and provides with suggestions concerning different methods applied in risk analysis. The article also explains a correlation between risk analysis and land-use planning.
Źródło:
Budownictwo i Inżynieria Środowiska; 2011, 2, 3; 319-322
2081-3279
Pojawia się w:
Budownictwo i Inżynieria Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A firm’s perspective on econophysics-based currency risk analysis
Autorzy:
Fiedor, Paweł
Hołda, Artur
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/950707.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
risk
exchange rate
predictability
econophysics
Opis:
In this article the authors presents an approach to quantifying currency risk based on the methodology of econophysics. This article continues the authors’ study into the currency risk, this time simplifying it for the purpose of rendering it useful for companies without technical abilities. A method of analysing the dependencies between currencies based on correlations is introduced to facilitate the analysis of currency risk involved in being exposed to one or more foreign currencies. Also a model estimating a risk-free horizon is introduced and tested against price formation models and empirical data from FX markets.
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2014, 4(21); 92-107
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis for operating active wheelchairs in non-urban settings
Autorzy:
Sydor, Maciej
Krauss, Andrzej
Krauss, Hanna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/990867.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Instytut Medycyny Wsi
Tematy:
independent living
preliminary hazard analysis (pha)
risk analisis
wheelchair
safety measures
spinal cord injury (sci)
Opis:
Introduction. A wheelchair is a special vehicle designed specifically for people with walking limitations. One of the types is an active wheelchair. This is a manually propelled wheelchair, the design and structure of which maximise the mobility of its given user at the expense of accepted instability. Objective. The aim of this study was to identify and present a hierarchy of potential incidents causing a health hazard and reducing the mobility of individuals with ambulatory disability who use active wheelchairs in non-urban settings. Materials and methods. Information about incidents connected with wheelchair use was collected from interviews with disabled individuals, based on a questionnaire. Recorded data were analysed using the Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA). Results. The results comprise a list of hazards for wheelchair user with ascribed priority numbers metrising their significance. Conclusions. An ordered list of hazards connected with wheelchair operation situations is useful when designing active wheelchairs and when learning the technique of wheelchair riding.
Źródło:
Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine; 2017, 24, 3
1232-1966
Pojawia się w:
Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Implementation of matrix methods in flood risk analysis and assessment
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K.
Zygmunt, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/96196.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Fundacja Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
Tematy:
flood risk
risk matrix
flood losses
zagrożenie powodziowe
macierz ryzyka
straty powodziowe
Opis:
In the work the matrix methods of flood risk analysis and assessment were presented. Also the issue of flood risk in terms of its regulations was presented. The flood risk analysis and assessment were performed with the use of risk matrix for one of the Subcarpathian commune. For this purpose, flood risk maps were prepared and potential flood losses were calculated in accordance with existing legislation.
Źródło:
Ekonomia i Środowisko; 2018, 3; 8-24
0867-8898
Pojawia się w:
Ekonomia i Środowisko
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis and Human Factor in Prevention of CRG Casualties
Autorzy:
Kobylinski, L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/116985.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
Risk Analysis
Human Factor
CRG Casualties
Ship Handling Research and Training Centre at Ilawa
Polska
Collision Avoidance
Collisions-Ramming-Groundings (CRG)
Safe Manoeuvres
Human and Organization Errors (HOE)
Opis:
CRG casualties create one of the major type casualties in shipping. Prevention of CRG casualties is an important issue, especially because of the number of CRG casualties has increased almost twice during recent years. For the great majority of all CRG casualties human factor responsible, and the increasing number of these casualties might be attributed to poorer qualifications of ship masters who have not enough experience in handling very large ships put into operation presently. Risk analysis is a modern method for assessment of safety level of technical systems. This tool may be the used to investigate causes of casualties and to find out most effective prevention measures. Risk analysis is widely used in many areas; in case of marine technology it is used routinely in off-shore technology. The author investigates possibilities to apply risk analysis in the area of ship handling with the focus on human factor. This is preliminary study where possible methodology for hazards identification and risk assessment in respect of CRG casualties are investigated and risk control options are suggested. Various aspects of the influence of human factor in collision avoidance are listed and in particular the effect of training is stressed.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2009, 3, 4; 443-448
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka w transporcie zbiorowym
Risk analysis in public transport
Autorzy:
Franek, Ł.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/194049.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Komunikacji Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej
Tematy:
transport zbiorowy
bezpieczeństwo
infrastruktura
zarządzanie
ryzyko
public transport
safety
infrastructure
management
risk
Opis:
Artykuł jest opisem propozycji budowy narzędzia do oceny ryzyka wystąpienia zdarzenia z udziałem pojazdów transportu zbiorowego, w odniesieniu do różnych elementów infrastruktury. Proponuje się poddać obserwacji kilkanaście najważniejszych czynników infrastrukturalnych, kształtujących zachowania użytkowników oraz oszacować prawdopodobieństwa wystąpienia na nich zdarzeń niebezpiecznych. Praktycznym wykorzystaniem wyników tego typu analizy zainteresowane mogą być miejskie zarządy dróg i transportu oraz operatorzy, dla których istotna jest możliwość wskazania konkretnych strat ekonomicznych. Narzędzie można będzie wykorzystać w procesie decyzyjnym na etapie inwestycji, modernizacji i eksploatacji. Podejście do zarządzania bezpieczeństwem w ścisłym powiązaniu z zarządzaniem jakością zostało zaczerpnięte z innowacyjnych metod stosowanych w przemyśle.
Article presents description of the measure estimating risk of accidents which may happen with participation of the public transport vehicles, with reference to different elements of infrastructure. It is proposed to observe dozen or so the most important infrastructure factors influencing users' behavior and to estimate probabilities of occurring dangerous cases in relation to them. Municipal transport and road boards and operators may be interested in practical usage of results of this type of analysis since possibility to find out specific economical loses is important for them. The measure may be used in the decision process of the investment, modernization and operation stages. Approach to the risk management in close relation to the quality management has been taken from innovative methods used in industry.
Źródło:
Transport Miejski i Regionalny; 2012, 6; 40-43
1732-5153
Pojawia się w:
Transport Miejski i Regionalny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Autorzy:
Flage, R.
Aven, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069562.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
quantitative risk analysis
QRA
uncertainty
sensitivity analysis
decision support
Opis:
A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a comprehensive, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main pillars of a risk description following this approach. We also indicate how this approach should relate to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. An example is included to illustrate ideas and findings.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 109--115
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Reliability and risk analysis of multi-state systems with degrading components
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069716.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
multi-state systems
system reliability
system risk
Opis:
Applications of multi-state approach to the reliability evaluation of systems composed of independent components are considered. The main emphasis is on multi-state systems with degrading components because of the importance of such an approach in safety analysis, assessment and prediction, and analysing the effectiveness of operation processes of real technical systems. The results concerned with multi-state series systems are applied to the reliability evaluation and risk function determination of a homogeneous bus transportation system. Results on homogeneous multi-state “m out of n” systems are applied to durability evaluation of a steel rope. A nonhomogeneous series-parallel pipeline system composed of several lines of multi-state pipe segments is estimated as well. Moreover, the reliability evaluation of the model homogeneous multi-state parallel-series electrical energy distribution system is performed.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 2; 205--216
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis on ship wreck and container cargo to ship navigation
Autorzy:
Zaman, M.B.
Pitana, T.
Iswantoro, A.
Aryawan, W.D.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/117044.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
ships manoeuvering
risk analysis
ship wreck
container
ship navigation
risk matrix
risk acceptance criteria
ship accidents
Opis:
Wreck of a ship is an incident that must be avoided. Ship accidents are generally caused by a several cases, such as human error, natural disaster, technical errors, missed communication, poor condition of the ship, and many more. Ship wreckage have huge impact for ship navigation, environment, economics, and others. Those impact have many disadvantages for the shipowners, and also for environment. For examples the fuel spills that pollute the environment, make disturbance to sailing ship because the track for those navigation is blocked by the ship wreck and their cargo especially on shallow location (<50 m). These research will discuss the effect the container when it is floats on the sea and its interference other ships. The main objective of this study is to present a risk assessment on the environmental impact of the wreck and container cargo. Wrecks on the seabed is likely to pose a risk to passing ships. container and its contents as well as the possibility of refloat, and also their environmental risks emanating from the wreck and container cargo, such as fuels, lubricants, and chemical cargo. Variations scenario is a collision between ships that pass by floating containers. The frequency of refloating container, and the consequences of the passing ship depends on several factors, which will be the subject of research. However, because of the frequency of refloating containers is unlikely, then the risk is low and does not pose a danger to navigation. These risk assessment using risk matrix 5x5 which is the combined value of the frequency and consequences of the incident. The results of this study indicate the level of risk, whether the risk is accepted, not accepted or received by considering the costs and benefits (ALARP). To consequence, there are two parameters which energy is absorbed and the penetration occurs. The absorbed energy is divided into two, namely the energy absorbed by ship and the energy absorbed by containers. In this study were taken 5 groups based on the size of the vessel. In this cases any 5 size group of vessels is based on the size of the ships that pass in the shipping lanes at the site of the sinking. Assumed these vessels have speed 10 knots at the location. As well as speed drifting containers having 0 to 3 knots.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2017, 11, 1; 71-77
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of risk analysis in maintenance of ship power system elements
Autorzy:
Adamkiewicz, A.
Fydrych, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/359078.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Tematy:
technical risk
seagoing vessel
power system
maintenance strategy
Opis:
Searching for a safe ship, this paper presents operational strategies which are used for ship power system maintenance, conditions for their realization have been shown. The procedure of risk analysis has been decomposed and its stages have been discussed. Methods of risk evaluation and methods of ship power system threat identification have been analyzed. The choice of risk evaluation method has been made for the management of maintenance of elements of the system taking into account good maritime practice, ICM code, regulations of classification societies and international maritime organizations. Studies on possibilities of extending operational time of the engine from the main power system using risk analysis with the Expert Method have been presented. On the basis of the results of studies, applicability of the Expert Method for risk analysis on ships has been shown.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2013, 36 (108) z. 2; 5-12
1733-8670
2392-0378
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis of water supply interruptions in collective water supply systems
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Rak, J. R.
Piegdoń, I.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069330.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
water supply
availability
risk management
value of water scarcity
water production subsystem
Opis:
The subject and main purpose of this study is to present the method of risk analysis and assessment of the lack of water supply to the collective water supply system (CWSS). Presented method using the expected value of water scarcity. The analysis was based on all possible states of the operation of water production subsystem. The article contains calculation example of analysis for the exemplary CWSS with regard to absolute risk, equal to the expected value of water scarcity and the relative risk referred to the nominal value of the water demand. In the example attached special importance to the criteria levels of the relative risk of lack of water supply. Presented method is a new concept which allows to make comprehensive analysis of reliability, safety and operation of the collective water supply system.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 2; 201--208
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis method by the extreme data of dependent exogenous variables
Autorzy:
Tereshchenko, Ihor
Tereshchenko, Anton
Bilous, Nataliya
Shtangey, Svetlana
Warsza, Zygmunt L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2141854.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Przemysłowy Instytut Automatyki i Pomiarów
Tematy:
exogenous variable
risk-oriented process approach
extreme value theory
tailed distribution
Opis:
Many practical tasks of data multivariate statistical analysis from the standpoint of a risk-oriented process approach (in accordance with ISO 9001: 2015, 31000: 2018) requires the definition of the risk values for the dependent exogenous variables of some processes. This paper proposes the method, which consist of original stages sequence for calculating value-at-risk (VaR) or conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) of dependent exogenous variables, presented of the extreme data frame of critical manufacture process parameters or other parameters, for example, extreme data of environmental monitoring and etc. Risk analysis method by the extreme data of dependent exogenous variables, presented of the data matrix, uses the result of solving the formalized problem of defines the tails parameters of the joint distributions of exogenous variables as components of a bivariate random variable. It can be argued that the tails parameters of the joint distributions of dependent exogenous variables make the validated corrections of the VaR and CVaR estimates for such variables. This method expands the practical application of extreme value theory for the value at risk analysis of any dependent variables as process parameters.
Źródło:
Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems; 2021, 15, 3; 44-53
1897-8649
2080-2145
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza zagrożenia powodziowego Kazimierza Dolnego
Flood risk analysis of Kazimierz Dolny
Autorzy:
Krawczyk, Przemysław
Całka, Beata
Bielecka, Elżbieta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2174498.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Informacji Przestrzennej
Tematy:
powódź
ocena zagrożenia
model HEC-RAS
GIS
otwarte dane
Wisła
flood
risk assessment
HEC-RAS model
open data
Vistula
Opis:
Powodzie to jedna z najczęstszych i najbardziej niszczycielskich klęsk żywiołowych na świecie, które mają negatywny wpływ na ludzi, środowisko i gospodarkę. Artykuł ma na celu modelowanie i ocenę ryzyka powodziowego wykorzystując jednowymiarowy model HEC-RAS oraz otwarte dane udostępniane przez Główny Urzędu Geodezji i Kartografii. Obszar badań obejmuje Kazimierz Dolny położony nad Wisłą. Badania przeprowadzono w trzech etapach. Po pozyskaniu danych z numerycznego modelu terenu i elementów doliny rzecznej (np. przekrojów poprzecznych doliny) oraz opracowaniu warstwy szorstkości na podstawie wskaźników Manninga, wymodelowano wody wezbraniowe dla powodzi dziesięcio-, stu- i pięćset letniej. Analiza ryzyka wykazała, że powódź 100-letnia powoduje już dość znaczne szkody w dobrach ludzkich i kulturowych, a powódź 500-letnia znacznie je powiększa, niszcząc 2016 budynków i zalewając obszar o powierzchni niemalże 207 ha.
Flooding is one of the most frequent and devastating natural disasters in the world, generating negative impact to people, environment and economy. The paper aims in flood risk modelling and risk assessment based on one-dimensional HEC-RAS model and open data derived form the Head Office of Geodesy and Cartography. The research area covers the small historic city Kazimierz Dolny located on the Vistula River. The research was carried out in three stages. After digital elevation model and river valley elements (e.g. valley cross sections) data acquisition, as well as elaborating a roughness layer based on Manning's indicators, the ten-, one-hundred- and five-hundred-year floods water were modelled. The risk analysis showed that the 100-year flood is already causing quite significant damage to human and cultural assets, and the 500-year flood significantly increases it, destroying 2,016 buildings and flooding an area of almost 207 hectares.
Źródło:
Roczniki Geomatyki; 2022, 20, 4(99); 81--91
1731-5522
2449-8963
Pojawia się w:
Roczniki Geomatyki
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainties on risk analysis : the consequence assessment in an hydrogen refuelling station
Autorzy:
Carpignano, A.
Ganci, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069552.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
uncertainty
risk analysis
hydrogen
consequence analysis
hydrogen refuelling station
Opis:
The paper concerns the problem of uncertainty associated to risk analysis of complex technological systems; this problem is not easy to resolve and manage. This is because such uncertainty has never been simple to quantify and, despite several innovative techniques able to properly manage uncertainties are available, none of these methodologies is integrated on the risk analysis in order to evaluate the error propagation. Also the itself risk analysis is not a precisely defined procedure but rather a complicated process of several parts and, moreover, each part is characterized by its own uncertainty. Several studies highlighted as the phases which mainly contribute to the overall uncertainty of a risk analysis are consequence and vulnerability studies. In order to provide a signifying approach to the problem, the working team has decided to focus their attention on a very important target for population safety: the hydrogen refuelling station for automotive.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 93--100
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka i zarządzanie bezpieczeństwem funkcjonalnym
Risk analysis and functional safety management
Autorzy:
Kosmowski, K. T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069721.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
analiza ryzyka
zarządzanie niezawodnością
zarządzanie bezpieczeństwem
bezpieczeństwo funkcjonalne
analiza kosztów i korzyści
risk analysis
reliability management
safety mamagement
functional safety
cost-benefit analysis
Opis:
This article addresses current issues concerning the risk analysis and functional safety management. Some cost-benefit analysis methods (CBA) are presented oriented on optimizing the safety-related solutions on example of functional safety technologies reducing risk based on programmable systems E/E/PE (PN-EN 61508) and SIS (PN-EN 61511). The importance of safety-related criteria, such as tolerability of risk (TOR) in the context of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is emphasized to reach rational decisions as regards safetyrelated solutions to be sufficiently reliable, safe and preferably economically justified.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2011, 2, 3; 9--16
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka na Towarowej Giełdzie Energii
Risk Analysis on Polish Power Exchange
Autorzy:
Ganczarek-Gamrot, Alicja
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/590398.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Analiza ryzyka
Energia elektryczna
Giełdy towarowe
Handel gazem
Ocena ryzyka
Rynek energetyczny
Ryzyko rynkowe
Commodity exchange
Electric power
Energy market
Gas trade
Market risk
Risk analysis
Risk assessment
Opis:
Celem pracy jest przeprowadzenie analizy porównawczej ryzyka zmiany ceny oraz wolumenu obrotu na rynku energii elektrycznej oraz rynku gazu prowadzonych przez Towarową Giełdę Energii. W pracy została przeprowadzona analiza rozkładów stóp zwrotu z omawianych rynków, na podstawie której zaproponowano miary estymacji ryzyka. Na bazie oszacowanego ryzyka zostanie przeprowadzona analiza porównawcza poziomu ryzyka na poszczególnych rynkach.
The aim of this paper is to carry out a comparative risk analysis of price and volume changes between electric energy contract prices and natural gas contracts quoted on Polish Power Exchange. On both markets prices are quoted continuously, and in fixings. In this paper the distribution of rates of return from both markets is analyzed. Based on this analysis, measures for estimating risk of price changes are proposed.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2014, 208; 19-30
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Concept of Models for Supply Chain Speculative Risk Analysis and Management
Autorzy:
Klosa, Edyta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522553.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Ocena ryzyka
Ryzyko w biznesie
Zarządzanie logistyczne
Zarządzanie łańcuchem dostaw
Zarządzanie ryzykiem
Business risk
Logistic management
Risk assessment
Risk management
Supply Chain Management (SCM)
Opis:
The article offers information on the risk management and analysis in business. Topics of discussion included were supply chain management, risk analysis at marketing, administration and information level and the increase of the importance of risk management in contemporary organizations. It mentions that the rational risk management approach should be based on three cardinal rules including maximizing expected opportunities, avoiding threats, and ignoring less probable possibilities.
Źródło:
Journal of Economics and Management; 2013, 12; 45-59
1732-1948
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Economics and Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Cybersecurity Risk Analysis and Threat Assessment Within Smart Electrical Power Distribution Grids
Autorzy:
Czechowski, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/410579.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
smart power grid
digital security
risk analysis
hazard valuation
cyber-physical security
Opis:
Development Of Electrical Power Systems And Their Integration With An Increasing Number Of Smart Automation Devices Compel To Undertake A New Approach To The Issue Of The System’s Security. Reliability Of An Electrical Power System And High Service Availability Are The Essential Characteristics Of Efficient Strategic Electricity Customers, I.E.: Large Industrial Facilities, Railway Transport, Medical Service Providers And Life-Saving Institutions. The Time Of Manual Or Automatic System Recovery After A Failure, Which Increases Its Security, Is Not Without Significance, Either. The Article Discusses The Issues Of Risk Assessment And Management, Including The Overall Process Of Analysis And Assessment Of Threat Probability In Electrical Power Systems.
Źródło:
Present Problems of Power System Control; 2016, 7; 19-28
2084-2201
Pojawia się w:
Present Problems of Power System Control
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Failure risk analysis in the collective water supply systems in crisis situations
Autorzy:
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069376.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
collective water supply system
crisis situation
critical infrastructure
Opis:
Risk is a basic category to estimate water supply system safety. The first step in risk assessment is to identify the threats and their possible consequences. One of methods for risk assessment is the method using the socalled risk graphs. It relies on the preliminary analysis of such risk factors as: the frequency of threat occurrence – F, the duration of the risk exposure – E, the size of the possible consequences – C and a degree of protection – O, that is inversely proportional to the mentioned measures of risk. The route along the branches of the risk graph should be started from the determination of the initiating/peak event which is the undesirable event (e.g. secondary water contamination in water-pipe network). The expanded risk graph presented in the work differs from the standard (commonly used) graph because it takes into consideration all combinations of the particular risk factors.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2013, 4, 1; 129--136
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Examples of Migration Matrices Models and their Performance in Credit Risk Analysis
Autorzy:
Grzybowska, U.
Karwański, M.
Orłowski, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1408978.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012-02
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Fizyki PAN
Tematy:
02.50.Ga
87.55.N-
02.10.Yn
Opis:
Credit risk models used in banks are based on probability models for occurrence of default. A vast class of the models used in practice (e.g., Credit Metrics) is based on the notion of intensity. In 1997 Jarrow applied Markov chain approach to analyze intensities. The key problem that arises is the selection of appropriate estimators. Within the Markov approach among the most frequently used estimators of a migration matrix are cohort and duration estimators. Migration matrices can also be obtained with help of statistical longitudinal models (GLMM) in which states (rating classes) in discrete time points are regarded as matched pairs. In this paper we compare Markov chain models and GLMM models and the influence of their application on bank portfolio evaluation.
Źródło:
Acta Physica Polonica A; 2012, 121, 2B; B-40-B-46
0587-4246
1898-794X
Pojawia się w:
Acta Physica Polonica A
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A new mathematical model for analytical risk assessment and prediction in IT systems
Autorzy:
Fray, I. E.
Kurkowski, M.
Pejaś, J.
Maćków, W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206238.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
risk analysis
risk analysis methods
formal model for risk analysis
Opis:
In this paper, we propose a new formal model to describe risk analysis and measurement process for IT systems. Our model complies with international standards and recommendations for non-profit organisations. The model accounts for solutions used in widely known and recommended risk analysis methods and provides for evaluation of efficacy of these solutions. A simple example illustrates the application of the proposed model for effective risk analysis of any IT system.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2012, 41, 1; 241-268
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A fault tree-based approach for aviation risk analysis considering mental workload overload
Autorzy:
Che, Haiyang
Zeng, Shengkui
You, Qidong
Song, Yueheng
Guo, Jianbin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2038044.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
risk analysis
human error
mental workload overload
multiple resources model
fault tree analysis
Opis:
Many lives and aircrafts have been lost due to human errors associated with mental workload overload (MWLOL). Human errors are successfully considered in existing Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) methods. However, MWLOL is considered through Performance Shaping Factors indirectly and its information is hidden in FT construction, which is not conducive to analyze the root causes of human errors and risks. To overcome this difficulty, we develop a risk analysis method where Multiple Resources Model (MRM) is incorporated into FTA methods. MRM analyzes mental workload by estimating the resources used during performing concurrent tasks, probably including abnormal situation handling tasks introduced by basic events in FT. Such basic events may cause MWLOL and then trigger corresponding human error events. A MWLOL gate is proposed to describe MWLOL explicitly and add these new relationships to traditional FT. This new method extends previous FTA methods and provides a more in-depth risk analysis. An accident, a helicopter crash in Maryland, is analyzed by the proposed method.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2021, 23, 4; 646-658
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Simulation-Based Risk Analysis of Maritime Transit Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul
Autorzy:
Ozbas, B.
Or, I.
Uluscu, O. S.
Atiok, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/117473.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
Tematy:
Risk Analysis
Strait of Istanbul
Maritime Transit Traffic
Traffic Rules
Traffic Regulations
risk assessment
Simulation-Based Analysis
safety at sea
Opis:
In this manuscript, development and preliminary results of a simulation based risk modeling study for the Strait of Istanbul is presented. The goal of this research is to analyze the risks involved in the transit vessel traffic in the Strait of Istanbul. In the first step of the study, the transit vessel traffic system in the Strait of Istanbul has been investigated and a simulation model has been developed. The model gives due consideration to current traffic rules and regulations, transit vessel profiles and schedules, pilotage and tugboat services, local traffic, meteorological and geographical conditions. Regarding risk assessment, two sets of factors are used to evaluate the risk of accident in the Strait: the proba-bility of an accident and its potential consequences, as estimated and evaluated at various points along the Strait. Experience has shown that maritime accident occurrences can be very dissimilar from one another and therefore, probabilistic analysis of accidents should not be done independent of the factors affecting them. Thus, in this study, we have focused on the conditional probability of an accident, under a given setting of various accident causing factors. Unfortunately, historical accident data is by far insufficient for a proper sta-tistical consideration of all possible settings of these factors. Therefore, subject-expert opinion is relied upon in estimating these conditional accident probabilities. Assessment of the consequences of a given accident (in terms of its effects on human life, traffic efficiency, property and environment) was also accomplished using a similar approach. Finally, by integrating these assessments into the developed simulation model, the risks observed by each vessel at each risk slice are calculated in regard to the natural and man-made conditions surrounding. A sce-nario analysis is performed to evaluate the characteristics of the accident risk as the vessel moves along the Strait. This analysis allows us to investigate how various factors impact risk. These factors include vessel ar-rival rates, scheduling policies, pilotage service, overtaking and pursuit rules, and local traffic density. Policy indications are made based on the results of these scenarios.
Źródło:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2009, 3, 3; 295-300
2083-6473
2083-6481
Pojawia się w:
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Software for Occupational Health and Safety Risk Analysis Based on a Fuzzy Model
Autorzy:
Stefanovic, M.
Tadic, D.
Djapan, M.
Macuzic, I.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/90031.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Centralny Instytut Ochrony Pracy
Tematy:
risk assessment
uncertainty
fuzzy model
software simulation
occupational health and safety
Opis:
Risk and safety management are very important issues in healthcare systems. Those are complex systems with many entities, hazards and uncertainties. In such an environment, it is very hard to introduce a system for evaluating and simulating significant hazards. In this paper, we analyzed different types of hazards in healthcare systems and we introduced a new fuzzy model for evaluating and ranking hazards. Finally, we presented a developed software solution, based on the suggested fuzzy model for evaluating and monitoring risk.
Źródło:
International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics; 2012, 18, 2; 127-136
1080-3548
Pojawia się w:
International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Quantitative methods in the risk analysis on the example of the oil sector
Autorzy:
Byrska-Rąpała, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/94979.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
fair market value
hyperbolic lognormal distribution
exponential utility function
risk tolerance level
equivalent of certainty
real option
godziwa wartość rynkowa
opcja realna
ekwiwalent pewności
poziom tolerancji ryzyka
Opis:
The geological object (deposit) is a specific type of asset of mining enterprise which cannot be quantitatively or qualitatively interchangeably measured. In spite of rapid development of geological and economic sciences, still none of universal method of evaluation of value of resources has been settled yet. In the article, on the example of the oil sector, author described chosen methods of the mathematical statistics and the financial mathematics tools, which are used in the risk assessment related to estimating the fair market value of hydrocarbons. In the article the following subjects are presented: - the hyperbolic lognormal distribution in the exploration risk assessment, - the exponential utility function and the evaluation of the real option in the economic risk assessment. For each area of risk assessment is to recommend software. Statistical methods and the financial engineering used in estimating the fair value of the properties, are from many years the topic of numerous scientific publications and research. Many of the studies has indicated the importance of mathematical methods in solving problems in the area, where not long ago intuition and experience of evaluator of deposit were mainstream.
Źródło:
Information Systems in Management; 2012, 1, 3; 171-183
2084-5537
2544-1728
Pojawia się w:
Information Systems in Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Component Maintenance Strategies and Risk Analysis for Random Shock Effects Considering Maintenance Costs
Autorzy:
Zhang, Chao
Zhang, Yadong
Dui, Hongyan
Wang, Shaoping
Tomovic, Mileta M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/24200830.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
system reliability
preventive maintenance
importance measure
maintenance cost
random shock
Opis:
Maintenance can improve a system’s reliability in a long operation period or when a component has failed. The reliability modeling method that uses the stochastic process degradation model to describe the system degradation process has been widely used. However, the existing reliability models established using stochastic processes only consider the internal degradation process, and do not fully consider the impact of external random shocks on their reliability modeling. Furthermore, the existing theory of importance does not consider the actual factors of maintenance cost. In this paper, based on the reliability modeling of random processes, the degradation rate under the influence of random shocks is introduced into the time scale function to solve the impact of random shocks on product reliability, and two cost importance measures are proposed to guide the maintenance selection of the components under limited resources in the system. Finally, a subsystem of an aircraft hydraulic system is analyzed to verify the proposed method’s performance.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 2; art. no. 162011
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analiza ryzyka na rynku Nord Pool Spot
Risk Analysis on the Nord Pool Spot
Autorzy:
Ganczarek-Gamrot, Alicja
Krężołek, Dominik
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/589891.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Analiza ryzyka
Analiza wartości zagrożonej
Rynek energetyczny
Ryzyko inwestycyjne
Energy market
Investment risk
Risk analysis
Value at Risk Analysis
Opis:
The aim of this paper is the analysis of risk on Scandinavian energy market: Nord Pool Spot. The analysis is based on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As the normality assumption for linear returns of prices has been rejected, the alternative distribution has been proposed: the alpha-stable distribution. The results shown that there are some differences between risks among submarkets of Nord Pool Spot. Moreover, the alpha- stable distribution better approximate real Value-at-Risk than normal one only if quantiles of order 0,05 and 0,95 are considered.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2014, 192; 44-58
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Steam turbine maintenance planning based on forecasting of life consumption processes and risk analysis
Autorzy:
Rusin, Andrzej
Tomala, Martyna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2172025.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
steam turbine
risk analysis
preventive maintenance
Opis:
Flexible operation of coal-fired power plants contributes to the intensification of the life consumption processes, which is a serious problem especially in the case of units with a long in-service time. In steam turbine rotors, the crack propagation rate and material wear caused by low-cycle fatigue increase. The aim of the research is an attempt to forecast the development of these processes and to estimate the probability of critical elements damage, such as the high-pressure and intermediate-pressure rotors. In the stress state analyses, the finite element method (FEM) is used, the Monte Carlo method and the second order reliability method (SORM) is apply to calculate the probability of failure. It is proposed to use risk analysis to plan preventive maintenance of the turbine. The optimal intervals for carrying out diagnostic tests and prophylactic repairs is determined for various operating scenarios and various failure scenarios. This enables a reduction of the costs while ensuring the safety of the turbine's operation.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2022, 24, 3; 395--406
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Selected tools for risk analysis in logistics processes
Wybrane narzędzia analizy ryzyka procesów logistycznych
Autorzy:
Kulińska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/224257.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
procesy logistyczne
narzędzia analizy ryzyka
zarządzanie ryzykiem
logistic processes
tools for risk analysis
risk management
Opis:
As each organization aims at managing effective logistics processes, risk factors can and should be controlled through proper system of risk management. Implementation of complex approach to risk management allows for the following: - evaluation of significant risk groups associated with logistics processes implementation, - composition of integrated strategies of risk management, - composition of tools for risk analysis in logistics processes.
Ponieważ każda organizacja POWINNA zarządzać efektywnymi procesami logistycznymi, czynniki ryzyka mogą i powinny być kontrolowane, poprzez odpowiedni system zarządzania ryzykiem. Wprowadzenie kompleksowego podejścia do zarządzania ryzykiem pozwala na: - oszacowanie istotnych grup czynników ryzyka towarzyszących realizacji procesów logistycznych, - wypracowanie zintegrowanych strategii zarządzania ryzykiem, - opracowanie narzędzi analizy ryzyka w procesach logistycznych. Przedmiotem niniejszej publikacji jest przegląd wybranych narzędzi analizy procesów logistycznych.
Źródło:
Archives of Transport; 2012, 24, 1; 27-42
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk Analysis on the Example of Chocolate Production®
Analiza ryzyka na przykładzie produkcji czekolady®
Autorzy:
Kowalska, Jolanta
Urbańska, Bogumiła
Gresse-Łyko, Aleksander
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2051355.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Menedżerska w Warszawie
Tematy:
risk analysis
chocolate
threats
production process
analiza ryzyka
czekolada
zagrożenia
proces produkcji
Opis:
Risk analysis is a tool supporting and allowing to determine the level of risk and the effects that may cause potential threats. Based on the results obtained, during the analysis of hazards in the chocolate production process, it was possible to assess the existing hazards and assign them a specific weight, which translates into risk levels that have a potential impact on the health safety of dark chocolates. Dark chocolate has been shown to be a relatively safe product. Many stages in the technological cycle allow for the elimination of hazards from raw materials and earlier processing stages, which is supported by properly designed quality systems.
Analiza ryzyka jest narzędziem wspomagającym i pozwalającym na określenie poziomu ryzyka i skutków, jakie mogą wywołać potencjalne zagrożenia. W oparciu o uzyskane wyniki podczas analizy zagrożeń w procesie produkcji czekolady możliwe było dokonanie oceny występujących zagrożeń oraz nadanie im określonej wagi, przekładającej się na poziomy ryzyka mające potencjalny wpływ na bezpieczeństwo zdrowotne czekolad gorzkich. Wykazano, że czekolada gorzka jest produktem stosunkowo bezpiecznym. Wiele etapów w cyklu technologicznym pozwala na usunięcie zagrożeń pochodzących z surowców i wcześniejszych etapów przetwórczych, w czym są pomocne właściwie opracowane systemy jakości.
Źródło:
Postępy Techniki Przetwórstwa Spożywczego; 2021, 2; 71-83
0867-793X
2719-3691
Pojawia się w:
Postępy Techniki Przetwórstwa Spożywczego
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Risk analysis of maritime accidents in an estuary: a case study of Shenzhen Waters
Autorzy:
Chen, P.
Mou, J.
Li, Y.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/135412.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Tematy:
maritime accident
risk analysis
Bayesian network
fault tree analysis (FTA)
estuarine waters
maritime safety
Opis:
Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in estuarine waters during recent years which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 2003 to 2012, which is collected from Shenzhen Maritime Safety Administration, this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network and fault tree analysis. First a Bayesian network model was introduced to describe the consequence of accidents based on the accident investigation report. Then fault tree analysis was applied to estimate the probability on the basis of accident statistics and ship traffic flow. Finally the risk of maritime accidents in Shenzhen Waters was depicted through the consequence multiplied by the probability of an accident.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2015, 42 (114); 54-62
1733-8670
2392-0378
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-50 z 828

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