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    Wyświetlanie 1-6 z 6
    Tytuł:
    Using ALARO and AROME numerical weather prediction models for the derecho case on 11 August 2017
    Autorzy:
    Kolonko, Marcin
    Szczęch-Gajewska, Małgorzata
    Bochenek, Bogdan
    Stachura, Gabriel
    Sekuła, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2166586.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    derecho
    mesocyclone convective system
    mesoscale convective vortex
    numerical weather prediction model
    ALARO model
    AROME model
    Opis:
    On average, a derecho occurs once a year in Poland while bow echoes happen several times per year. On 11 August 2017, severe meteorological phenomena were observed in Poland, including extremely strong wind gusts. We focused especially on the convective windstorm of a derecho type which occurred on that date in northern and north-western Poland. A rapidly moving mesoscale convective system (MCS) resulted in a bow echo, a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), and finally fulfilled the criteria for a derecho. To establish whether our operational models in the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) could reproduce a derecho of such intensity as that of 11 August 2017, the results from two mesoscale numerical weather prediction models were analyzed. The Application of Research to Operation at Mesoscale (AROME) and the ALADIN & AROME (ALARO) models were applied in the non-hydrostatic regime. We also examine how models differ with respect to mesoscale convective system drivers (such as vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy) and representation of deep convection (e.g., vertical velocities, cold pool generation). Forecasts are compared with observations of wind gusts and radar data. Severe weather phenomena, such as rear inflow jet and cold pool, were predicted by both models, visible on the maps of the wind velocity at 850 and 925 hPa pressure levels and on the map of air temperature at 2 m above the ground level, respectively. Relative vorticity maps of the middle and lower troposphere were analyzed for understanding the evolution of MCV.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2022, 10, 2; 1--25
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A consultative approach to charter party agreements based on virtual on time arrival
    Autorzy:
    Davies, H.
    Bevan, S.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/116955.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
    Tematy:
    economic aspects
    charter party
    charter party agreement
    virtual nn time arrival
    numerical weather prediction
    Beaufort Force (BF)
    Douglas Sea and Swell (DSS) scale
    route optimization
    Opis:
    Charter Party agreements underpin the relationship between ship owners and charterers. The agreement guarantees the performance of a vessel in terms of speed and fuel consumption. On this basis the charterers plan the arrival of their cargo and their profit margin. However, ship performance is degraded by age, periods between maintenance and many vessels fail to perform as expected. Moreover the performance is only warranted during the specific conditions stated in the charter party which are not always clear. These usually refer to Beaufort Force (BF) and the Douglas Sea and Swell (DSS) scale which is archaic in the age of Numerical Weather Prediction. Given these conditions, the stage is set for conflict and there are often disputes over the weather conditions experienced. Moreover ships’ often do not arrive on time because the charterer has assumed that the ship will make good its warranted speed and not taken account of the forecast weather conditions. The authors propose a new way of approaching charter agreements with the emphasis on consultation rather than confrontation facilitated by a new web based software platform.
    Źródło:
    TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2017, 11, 2; 303-308
    2083-6473
    2083-6481
    Pojawia się w:
    TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Influence of Parameterization of Some physical processes in Soils on Numerical meteorological Forecasts of Surface Fields
    Autorzy:
    Mazur, Andrzej
    Duniec, Grzegorz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2134727.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017-02-10
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Geografii i Studiów Regionalnych
    Tematy:
    Soil-plant-water system
    Hydrodynamics of porous media
    parameterization schemes
    multilayer soil model
    Numerical weather prediction
    Opis:
    physical processes in soil-plant-water system are very complicated. Complex physical processes in soil, in particular interaction between soilplant-water system have signicfiant inuflence on processes in planetary Boundary layer. Changes of soil state can signicfiantly modify processes in the pBl and meteorological efilds . Since numerical models are to determine the forecast of high quality, the physical processes occurring in soil should be properly described and then appropriately introduced into a model. every process in soil occurs on a smaller scale than original model's domain, so it should be described via adequate parameterization. Overall, soil parameterizations implemented in current numerical weather prediction (NWp) model(s) were prepared almost 40 years ago, when NWp models worked with very poor resolution mesh. Since nowadays NWp works over domains of high resolution, these “old” schemes parameterization must be adequately revised. In this paper preliminary results of changes of parameterization of soil processes will be presented.
    Źródło:
    Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development; 2016, 20, 4; 48-58
    0867-6046
    2084-6118
    Pojawia się w:
    Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Experiments with three-dimensional radar reflectivity data assimilation into the COAMPS model
    Autorzy:
    Jakubiak, B.
    Szturc, J.
    Ośródka, K.
    Jurczyk, A.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108601.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    weather radar
    numerical weather prediction
    radar reflectivity
    quality control
    assimilation
    Opis:
    High temporal and spatial resolution of radar measurements enables to continuously observe dynamically evolving meteorological phenomena. Three-dimensional (3D) weather radar reflectivity data assimilated into the numerical weather prediction model has the potential to improve initial description of the atmospheric model state. The paper is concentrated on the development of radar reflectivity assimilation technique into COAMPS mesoscale model using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) type assimilation schemes available in Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) programming environment. Before weather radar data enter into the assimilation system, the measurement errors are eliminated through quality control procedures. At first artifacts associated with non-meteorological errors are removed using the algorithms based on analysis of reflectivity field pattern. Then procedures for correction of the reflectivity data are employed, especially due to radar beam blockage and attenuation in rain. Each of the correction algorithms is connected with generation of the data quality characteristic expressed quantitatively by so called quality index (QI). In order to avoid transformation of data uncertainty into assimilation scheme only the radar gates successfully verified by means of the quality algorithms were employed in the assimilation. The proposed methodology has been applied to simulate selected intense precipitation events in Poland in May and August 2010.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2014, 2, 1; 43-54
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A comparison of ASCAT wind measurements and the HIRLAM model over the Baltic Sea
    Autorzy:
    Sluzenikina, J.
    Mannik, A.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48369.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2011
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
    Tematy:
    backscattering
    Baltic Sea
    HIRLAM model
    numerical weather prediction
    ocean surface
    sea surface
    stormy season
    wind direction
    wind field
    wind scatterometer
    wind speed
    Opis:
    This paper presents a comparison of the wind data measured by the ASCAT polar-orbiting satellite scatterometer and winds forecast by the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM in the Baltic Sea region during the stormy season in 2009. Two different resolution models were used in the comparison. Mutual quality and uncertainty characteristics of the measurements and predictions are determined. The results of the study show that the ASCAT wind data are well correlated with the HIRLAM predicted winds, which raises the credibility of both data sources in operational and hindcasting applications over the Baltic Sea. A case of phase error in a HIRLAM forecast of cyclonic activity over the Baltic Sea is discussed.
    Źródło:
    Oceanologia; 2011, 53, (1-TI)
    0078-3234
    Pojawia się w:
    Oceanologia
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Porównanie wyników weryfikacji modeli numerycznych prognoz pogody działających operacyjnie w ICM
    Comparison of verification results of the Numerical Weather Prediction models operated at ICM
    Autorzy:
    Melonek, M.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/60814.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2011
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Stowarzyszenie Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich PAN
    Tematy:
    meteorologia
    prognozy pogody
    systemy numeryczne
    model COAMPS
    model UM
    weryfikacja
    Interdyscyplinarne Centrum Modelowania Matematycznego i Komputerowego
    Opis:
    W ICM w trybie quasi-operacyjnym liczone są dwa niehydrostatyczne modele numeryczne prognoz pogody - model UM (Unified Model) rozwijany przez Brytyjską Służbę Meteorologiczną oraz COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) rozwijany przez US Naval Research Laboratory. Model UM posiada rozdzielczość poziomą 4 km i 38 poziomów w pionie. Jego domena obejmuje obszar Europy Środkowej. Obliczenia modelu COAMPS przeprowadzane są dla trzech różnych siatek obliczeniowych o rozdzielczościach kolejno 39, 13 i 4,3 km. Wyniki modelu COAMPS dla siatki obliczeniowej o rozdzielczości 13 km obejmującej obszar Europy Środkowej i modelu UM zostały porównane z danymi pomiarowymi pochodzącymi z 60 polskich stacji synoptycznych. Do weryfikacji użyte zostały dane prognostyczne z węzła obliczeniowego najbliższego położeniu stacji synoptycznej. W obu przypadkach porównane zostały wyniki obliczeń z przebiegu z godz. 00 UTC. Dla temperatury powietrza na wysokości 2 m, kierunku i prędkości wiatru na wysokości 10 m, ciśnienia zredukowanego do poziomu morza przedstawione zostały trzy wskaźniki statystyczne: ME, MAE i RMSE. W przypadku 12 godzinnych sum opadów zastosowano tablice wielodzielcze dla różnych progów opadowych do wyliczenia następujących wskaźników statystycznych: FBI, ETS, POD i FAR. Weryfikacja obejmuje dane z okresu od lata 2009 do jesieni 2010.
    At ICM in quasi-operational form two non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models are operated, Unified Model developed by UK Meteorological Office and COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by US Naval Research Laboratory. Unified Model has horizontal resolution of 4 km and 38 levels in vertical. COAMPS model is configured with three nested grids and horizontal resolutions of 39, 13 and 4.3 km. UM and the second grid of COAMPS cover the area of Central Europe. In this paper results of both NWP models, i.e. COAMPS computed on 13 km mesh resolution and UM were verified against observations from 60 Polish synoptic stations. In the verification process surface observations were compared with the nearest gridpoint forecasts. Only results from 00 UTC model runs were used. For the following meteorological elements: 2m air temperature, wind speed and wind direction at 10 m, mean sea level pressure ME, MAE and RMSE are presented. In case of 12 hour accumulated precipitation contingency tables for selected thresholds were constructed and their results were used to obtain FBI, ETS, POD and FAR. The verification sample covers period since June 2009 to November 2010.
    Źródło:
    Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich; 2011, 06
    1732-5587
    Pojawia się w:
    Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-6 z 6

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