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    Wyświetlanie 1-6 z 6
    Tytuł:
    Probability Function Estimation for the Maximum Precipitation Model Using Kernel Estimators
    Autorzy:
    Karczewski, Maciej
    Kaźmierczak, Bartosz
    Michalski, Andrzej
    Kuchar, Leszek
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2174916.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Politechnika Koszalińska. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
    Tematy:
    maximum precipitation
    kernel estimation
    hydrology
    Opis:
    The distribution of maximum rainfall level is not a homogeneous phenomenon and is often characterised by multimodality and often the phenomenon of the heavy right-hand tail. Modelling this phenomenon using classic probability distributions leads to ignoring multimodality, thus underestimating or overestimating the predicted values in the tail tails – the most important from the point of view of safe dimensioning of drainage systems. To avoid the difficulties mentioned above, a non-parametric kernel estimator method of maximum precipitation density function was used (in the example of rainfall data from a selected station in Poland). The methodology proposed in the paper (for use on any rainfall data from other meteorological stations) will allow the development of more reliable local models of maximum precipitation.
    Źródło:
    Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska; 2022, 24; 260--275
    1506-218X
    Pojawia się w:
    Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The spatial distribution of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) over the Kielce Upland in one day and multi-day intervals
    Autorzy:
    Suligowski, R.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108508.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    Probable Maximum Precipitation
    PMP
    Kielce Upland
    Hershfield’s method
    Opis:
    This paper presents an attempt to estimate the value of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over the Kielce Upland for one-day and multi-day intervals. Statistical methods were employed in the calculations. Precipitation data were obtained from 23 gauging stations. A regional frequency factor km (from Hershfield’s formula) was calculated for each station based on a series of maximum annual precipitation totals from 1961 to 2006. The calculated PMP values range from 120.7 mm to 228.4 mm (within the 1-day precipitation group), from 140.7 mm to 266.3 mm (2-day group), from 158.9 mm to 294.1 mm (3-day group), and from 175.2 mm to 294.8 mm (4-day group). These values became reference values used to show the spatial distribution of PMP throughout the Kielce Upland region.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2013, 1, 1; 39-44
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Comparison of classical and Theil-Kendall methods in assessing the significance of linear trend of precipitation in south-eastern Poland
    Autorzy:
    Węglarczyk, S.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/101285.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Stowarzyszenie Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich PAN
    Tematy:
    annual precipitation total
    annual daily maximum precipitation
    Upper Vistula River
    ordinary least squares linear regression
    Kendall-Theil linear regression
    Opis:
    Two methods of linear trend estimation: the ordinary least squares (OLS, parametric) and Theil-Kendall (TK, nonparametric) are compared in the paper. The comparison was made using 65 time series of annual totals, Pa , and annual daily maximum, Pmax, of precipitation, 30-year long each, recorded in the south-eastern part of Poland (the Upper Vistula catchment). The OLS and TK slope coefficients of trends revealed high similarity for both Pa and Pmax series. The signs of slopes are the same for 64 sites for Pa and 63 sites for Pmax with positive signs prevailing: the numbers of decreasing trends for Pa OLS and TK slopes were 3 and 4, respectively, and, for Pmax, 13 for both OLS and TK slopes. In trend significance testing, both methods produced similar results for Pa time series: out of 16 significant trends, 13 were determined with both OLS and TK at the same sites. For Pmax series such agreement was found for 4 trends out of 10. Spatial distribution of significant trends showed a kind of clustering in certain parts of the investigated area.
    Źródło:
    Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich; 2016, IV/2; 1439-1450
    1732-5587
    Pojawia się w:
    Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Quantile estimation of probability distributions for maximum daily precipitation and short time series of observational data for engineering design
    Autorzy:
    Kuchar, Leszek
    Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, Ewa
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2057626.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
    Tematy:
    stochastic method
    daily precipitation
    Pareto law
    metoda stochastyczna
    opad dobowy
    prawo Pareto
    Opis:
    Knowledge of the distribution quantiles of precipitation maximum amounts is required in many fields concerning engineering design or hydrological risk assessment. When the number of observation years is small, it is not possible to fit the probability distribution function to maximum values and to calculate quantiles. This paper presents a procedure for calculating the quantiles of the probability distribution of daily precipitation maximums over a year using stochastic convergence of distributions. The distribution series of random variables, defined based on the cut-off sample with the elimination of the smallest values, made it possible to determine the quantiles for times series of order α of the distribution. These values were approximated by a function from the exponential class and then extrapolated to obtain quantiles for the distribution of maxima. The resulting quantile estimates, for short time series, were corrected using the kurtosis of the data used for estimation, which leads to a very large error reduction.
    Źródło:
    Environment Protection Engineering; 2022, 48, 1; 35--50
    0324-8828
    Pojawia się w:
    Environment Protection Engineering
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Maksymalne sumy dobowe opadów w Ojcowie (Dolina Prądnika)
    Maximum sums of daily precipitation in Ojców (Prądnik Valley)
    Autorzy:
    Brzeźniak, Eligiusz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/471513.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2010
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie
    Tematy:
    zmienność klimatu
    maksymalna suma dobowa opadów
    Dolina Prądnika
    climate variability
    maximum daily precipitation
    Prądnik Valley
    Opis:
    The analysis of multiannual variability of maximum sums of daily precipitation was based on a 20 years-long observation series (1990–2009) from Ojców-Park Zamkowy observation point, situated in the Prądnik river valley, and maintained by the Ojców National Park. Methods of descriptive statistics, namely average values, including 5-days and 5-hours moving averages, extremal values and dispersion indices were used in the analysis (Fig. 1, 2).An attempt at determining the basic characteristics of precipitation variability on a regional scale has shown a marked instability of the temporal precipitation series controlled by circulation processes and local conditions. Non-periodic fluctuations are manifest in the results of the frequency analysis of maximum daily precipitation. The highest was the frequency of low, moderate and high precipitation (daily sums < 20 mm), the lowest (0.34%) was the frequency of very high precipitation. Precipitation sum higher than 60 mm was noted twice, in 1995 and 2007 year. The variability of precipitation in the Prądnik Valley is controlled by the intensity of cyclonic circulation, especially of the baric trough (Bc) and advection of polar maritime air mass (PPm).
    Źródło:
    Annales Universitatis Paedagogicae Cracoviensis Studia Geographica; 2010, 1 Dynamika zmian środowiska geograficznego pod wpływem antropopresji; 160-167
    2084-5456
    Pojawia się w:
    Annales Universitatis Paedagogicae Cracoviensis Studia Geographica
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Extreme Hydrological Phenomena in the Esil River Basin: Genesis, General Patterns of Manifestation
    Autorzy:
    Plekhanov, Petr Andreevich
    Medeu, Nadira Nusupkyzy
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/124716.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej
    Tematy:
    inundation
    floods
    snow-melt floods
    flood control
    maximum flow
    factors
    conditions
    occurrence
    air temperature
    precipitation
    Opis:
    The research subject involves dangerous hydrological phenomena (floods) in the Esil River Basin (Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions). The aim set by the authors was to improve the theoretical knowledge about floods and inundations, in order to contribute to solving the general problem of ensuring the safety of the territories in the Esil Water Management Basin (WMB) against harmful effects of water. In Kazakhstan, floods are caused by almost all known causes in the world: in most of the country – spring floods, the high-intensity rainfall. Additionally, there were cases when floods occurred as a result of dam failures (e.g. in the case of the Kyzylagash village in the Almaty region). Annually, the damage caused by floods throughout Kazakhstan amounts to several tens of billions of tenge. The predicted increase in air temperature and precipitation, coupled with the intensive development of farmland river valleys, will undoubtedly lead to the increase in the frequency and destructive power of floods. Therefore, developing a set of measures to prevent and protect against floods constitutes an urgent task. These measures will significantly reduce the expenses for the liquidation of the flood effects. The data on extreme hydrological phenomena (EHP) in the Esil River basin were collected and systematized. The conditions for the formation of high floods on the rivers of the researched region were studied. Various “typical” scenarios of the formation of dangerous and catastrophic floods were presented. The periods of passage of snow-melt floods (high floods) and other regularities of the intra-annual water regime in the Esil river basin were determined.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Ecological Engineering; 2019, 20, 7; 187-195
    2299-8993
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Ecological Engineering
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-6 z 6

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