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    Wyświetlanie 1-8 z 8
    Tytuł:
    Natural and anthropogenic causes of climate changes
    Autorzy:
    Haman, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/703442.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2008
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    climate change
    greenhouse effect
    climate forecasting
    Opis:
    The paper gives a short review of the basic physical mechanisms responsible for climate changes with particular attention paid to the structure of the Atmosphere–the Rest of the Earth dynamical system and its chaotic nature. The essence of "greenhouse effect" is explained and input of various natural and anthropogenic factors into it is presented. Problems, difficulties and uncertainties connected with reconstruction of past climates and and forcasting the future are discussed. Particular role of mathematical modelling in understanding and predicting the evolution of climate is emphasized.
    Źródło:
    Nauka; 2008, 1
    1231-8515
    Pojawia się w:
    Nauka
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Wpływ zmian klimatu na bezpieczeństwo infrastruktury kolejowej
    Climate influence on safety of railway infrastructure
    Autorzy:
    Rymsza, B.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/214808.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Kolejnictwa
    Tematy:
    bezpieczeństwo transportu kolejowego
    prognoza zmian klimatu
    instrukcje utrzymania i eksploatacji
    safety in railway transport
    climate chenge forecasting
    maintenance and operation instructions
    Opis:
    Wyniki prac badawczych wskazują, że należy liczyć się z długofalowymi zmianami klimatu wymagającymi przystosowania sektora transportu kolejowego do tych zmian. W artykule scharakteryzowano Umowne Kategorie Klimatu obejmujące mróz, śnieg, deszcz, wiatr, upał, mgłę oraz przedstawiono w skali liczbowej 0–3 wrażliwość transportu drogowego i kolejowego na poszczególne kategorie. Przeprowadzono analizę przewidywanych zmian Umownych Kategorii Klimatu w perspektywie do 2090 roku stwierdzając, że nastąpi zmniejszenie liczby dni chłodnych, wzrost temperatury, zmniejszenie liczby dni z pokrywą śnieżną i wzrost opadów. Te zmiany mogą mieć negatywny wpływ na bezpieczeństwo infrastruktury transportowej i dlatego konieczne jest określenie niezbędnych działań adaptacyjnych w projektowaniu, budowie i eksploatacji infrastruktury. Obszarem takich działań mogą być m.in. instrukcje wewnętrzne PKP PLK zawierające odniesienia do warunków klimatycznych, jak np. monitoring konstrukcji wrażliwych na podwyższoną temperaturę.
    The test results reveal that long term climate changes are unavoidable, which require activities to be undertaken to prepare the railway transport accordingly. The article characterises provisional climate categories including frost, snow, rain, heat, fog and the vulnerability of road and railway transport to those elements has been evaluated in a scale from 0 to 3. Changes in the provisional climate categories have been analysed in a time perspective to 2090, stating that there will be a tendency of reducing the number of colder days, increasing of temperature, reducing of number of days with snow cover and increase of rain falls. Such changes may have negative impact on safety of transport infrastructure, hence it is necessary to take precautions in designing, construction and operation of the infrastructure. This can be done in the area of e.g. internal instructions of PKP PLK containing references to the climate conditions, such as e.g. monitoring of structures vulnerable to higher temperature.
    Źródło:
    Problemy Kolejnictwa; 2013, 158; 5-18
    0552-2145
    2544-9451
    Pojawia się w:
    Problemy Kolejnictwa
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    DEMAND FORECAST WITH BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX FOR A STEEL AND IRON INDUSTRY REPRESENTATIVE
    Autorzy:
    Barska, Magdalena
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453455.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
    Tematy:
    demand forecasting
    SARIMAX
    business climate indicator
    Opis:
    The steel and iron industry production is dedicated to serve other industries mainly. This makes the exercise of demand forecasting different than for consumer goods. The common sense says that demand fluctuations are influenced by general economic soundness. An attempt was made to address the question of improving forecast’s accuracy by adding a business cycle indicator as an input variable. The SARIMAX model was applied. Including a business climate indicator improved model’s performance, however no co integration is observed between the two series.
    Źródło:
    Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2014, 15, 2; 27-36
    2082-792X
    Pojawia się w:
    Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Assessing accuracy of barley yield forecasting with integration of climate variables and support vector regression
    Autorzy:
    Parviz, Laleh
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/763798.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej
    Tematy:
    yield, climate, MLR, SVM
    Opis:
    Investigations of the relation between crop yield and climate variables are crucial for agricultural studies and decision making related to crop monitoring. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and support vector regression (SVR) are used to identify and model the impact of climate variables on barley yield. The climate variables of 36 years (1982–2017) are gathered from three provinces of Iran with different climate: Yazd (arid), Zanjan (semi-arid), Gilan (very humid). Air temperature by high correlation coefficient with barley yield was introduced as the dominant climate variable. According to evaluation criteria, SVR provided accurate estimation of crop yield in comparison with MLR. The diversity of climate impressed the estimated yield in which UI, decreasing from Gilan to Yazd provinces, was 47.77%. Support vector machine (SVM) with capturing the nonlinearity of time series, could improve barley yield estimation, with the minimum UI for Yazd province. Also, the minimum correlation coefficient between the observed and simulated yield was found in Gilan province. Based on GMER calculations, SVM forecasts were underestimated in three provinces. All findings show that SVM is able to have high efficiency to model the climate effect on crop yield.
    Źródło:
    Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Sklodowska, sectio C – Biologia; 2018, 73, 1
    2083-3563
    0066-2232
    Pojawia się w:
    Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Sklodowska, sectio C – Biologia
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The Role of Operational Ocean Forecasting in E-Navigation
    Autorzy:
    Graff, J.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/116784.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2008
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
    Tematy:
    e-Navigation
    Operational Ocean Forecasting
    Climate Changes
    Tide Tables
    Oceanography
    Sea Level
    Marine Electronic Highway (MEH)
    Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
    Opis:
    Advances in ocean modelling have led to improved performance for operational ocean forecasting and the availability of continuously reliable forecast information for certain ocean regions of the world. Although such forecasts are being increasingly adopted into a wide range of services across the maritime industry they have not yet been considered as candidates to supplement or to substitute conventional tide tables for navigation use. The issue is important in the context of climate change and the added uncertainty now placed on the use of conventional tide table for navigation in complex coastal waters. In the context of e-navigation it is timely to begin to explore the issue and examine how such forecasts might be used and adopted. This requires closer connectivity between ocean forecasting and navigation communities and the involvement of overarching organisations such as IMO and I GOOS. This paper raises the issue and opens the debate.
    Źródło:
    TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2008, 2, 3; 259-262
    2083-6473
    2083-6481
    Pojawia się w:
    TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting
    Autorzy:
    Sokolova, D.
    Kuzmin, V.
    Batyrov, A.
    Pivovarova, I.
    Tran, N. A.
    Dang, D.
    Shemanaev, K. V.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/124618.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej
    Tematy:
    hydrological model
    flood forecasting
    river basins
    changing climate
    Opis:
    Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfortunately, most of river basins in Russia are poorly gauged or ungauged; besides, lack of hydrogeological data is quite typical. However, the developing economy and population safety necessitate issuing warnings based on reliable forecasts. For this purpose, a new hydrological model, MLCM3 (Multi-Layer Conceptual Model, 3rd generation) has been developed in the Russian State Hydrometeorological University. The model showed good results in more than 50 tested basins.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Ecological Engineering; 2018, 19, 1; 177-185
    2299-8993
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Ecological Engineering
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Changes in Climate and Bioclimatic Potential in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine
    Autorzy:
    Pichura, Vitalii
    Potravka, Larisa
    Vdovenko, Nataliia
    Biloshkurenko, Oleksandra
    Stratichuk, Natalia
    Baysha, Kira
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2202306.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej
    Tematy:
    climate
    air temperature
    precipitation
    bioclimatic potential
    retrospective analysis
    forecasting
    management
    Steppe zone
    Opis:
    To increase the level of management efficiency in the agricultural sector of the economy, it is necessary to substantiate environmental protection measures for the restoration and rational use of natural resources, to ensure the implementation of the sustainable environmental management principles, considering the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in climate and bioclimatic potential of the territory. Using the methods of multivariate statistics and time series forecasting, regularities of changes in climatic conditions in the Steppe zone of Ukraine for 1945–2019 were established, and a forecast of changes in the bioclimatic potential of the region until 2030 was made. It was established that during the research period the average annual air temperature increased by 3.5 °C. The amount of annual atmospheric precipitation varied within 186–778 mm with a variation level of 27.2%, in the last 20 years it was determined to decrease by 40% – to 500–300 mm. It has been proven that the inertial probability of repeating hot years is estimated at 0.58, and the possibility of repeating wet years at 0.46. As a result of forecasting, it was determined that if the trend of climatic conditions is maintained, there will be a stable trend-cyclic increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.06 °C per year and a decrease in the amount of annual precipitation by 62.0 mm per year. This resulted in an 18.7% increase in solar radiation on the soil surface and a 26.0% decrease in climatic losses on soil formation, which reduced the rate of the natural ability to reproduce soil fertility. In particular, the bioproductivity of plants decreased by 62.0%, and the probability of its further decrease by 20% is predicted. Over the past 20 years, the coefficient of natural humidification has decreased by 66.4%, and it is predicted to decrease by 20%. The obtained results confirm significant climatic changes and their negative manifestations on the reduction of bioclimatic potential in the Steppe zone of Ukraine, the deterioration of agricultural production conditions, the reduction of harvests, the self-regenerating and self-regulating function of steppe soils.
    Źródło:
    Journal of Ecological Engineering; 2022, 23, 12; 189--202
    2299-8993
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of Ecological Engineering
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The importance of the WF coefficient in forecasting climatic conditions in coal excavations
    Autorzy:
    Smołka, Marcin
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2203336.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    górnictwo
    zagrożenie klimatyczne
    strumień ciepła
    longwalls
    mining aerology
    climate hazard prognosis
    heat flux calculations
    coal entries
    Opis:
    The article presents the results of research on the formation of the WF coefficient in coal excavations. The WF coefficient determines the share of the wet surface of the excavation sidewall. The wet part of the excavation sidewall is covered partly by the water film, which evaporates, lowering the temperature of this surface. This coefficient is one of the principal parameters used in forecasting the changes in temperature and humidity of the mine air occurring on the way of contact between the excavation sidewall and the flowing air. During the determination of the coefficient value, the criterion of equality of the actual and forecasted ratios of sensible heat to total heat was assumed in the research methodology. Values of the WF coefficient in the examined excavations generally vary within the range of 0,1-0,6, and they are mostly dependent on the parameters related to the period of ventilation.
    Źródło:
    Archives of Mining Sciences; 2022, 67, 3; 423--436
    0860-7001
    Pojawia się w:
    Archives of Mining Sciences
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-8 z 8

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